Keith Fredrick
Dallas at Denver
Play: Denver -6.5
After struggling to end the regular season the Mavs had the good fortune of taking on the short handed Spurs. Now things are quite different as they take on the Nuggets. In the last 8 meetings between the two teams Denver has gone 7-1 SU & ATS. The Nuggets have been golden at home in April winning all 7 games SU while going 6-1 ATS with the only loss as a 13 pt DD fav vs OK. This season as a home fav Denver has won by an avg score of 109.6-99.6.
Dallas at Denver
Play: Denver -6.5
After struggling to end the regular season the Mavs had the good fortune of taking on the short handed Spurs. Now things are quite different as they take on the Nuggets. In the last 8 meetings between the two teams Denver has gone 7-1 SU & ATS. The Nuggets have been golden at home in April winning all 7 games SU while going 6-1 ATS with the only loss as a 13 pt DD fav vs OK. This season as a home fav Denver has won by an avg score of 109.6-99.6.
Mark Franco
Miami at Atlanta
Play: Miami +5.5
This series hasn't exactly been filled with great games. The average margin of victory has been 20 points and in each game the winner has taken the lead for good no later than the second quarter. In 72 fourth-quarter minutes, the margin has been double digits for all but 9:18. In game seven I think this trend changes and we will have a close – tight game. Take the points.
Miami at Atlanta
Play: Miami +5.5
This series hasn't exactly been filled with great games. The average margin of victory has been 20 points and in each game the winner has taken the lead for good no later than the second quarter. In 72 fourth-quarter minutes, the margin has been double digits for all but 9:18. In game seven I think this trend changes and we will have a close – tight game. Take the points.
ASA no rating available
Dallas at Denver
Pick: Denver -5
The Nuggets easily advanced past the Hornets in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs 4 games to 1. It was their first playoff series win since 1994 and they showed no signs of slowing down. The point differential in that series was an astonishing 24.2 points in favor of the Nuggets. They had 58, 29, 21, and 15 point wins and just a 2 point loss on the road. They were ahead so much that they had the opportunity to give their key players some rest time. They should be really fresh after the last three days off and we expect them to easily take game one against the Mavericks.
Denver shot 49.8% field goals and 48.5% 3-point field goals in the five game series with the Hornets. They also held New Orleans to just 39.6% shooting and 32.6% 3-point field goals. They scored an average of 108.4 points per game and held the Hornets to just 84.2 points per game. Denver won the regular season series against Dallas 4-0. They were close games, winning by margins of 3, 10, 2, and 2 points. But Nene and Carmelo Anthony each had to sit out with injuries in both of the 2-point wins.
The Mavericks caught a break; they got to face the Spurs without one of their best players in Manu Ginobili. Without Ginobili it was easy for Dallas to defend the Spurs. Tony Parker was their only remaining playmaker, and it became easy to double team him once they realized that no other players were going to step up and score. Dallas won’t be able to handle Carmelo, Chauncey, and JR Smith in game 1 of this series. Go with Denver.
Dallas at Denver
Pick: Denver -5
The Nuggets easily advanced past the Hornets in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs 4 games to 1. It was their first playoff series win since 1994 and they showed no signs of slowing down. The point differential in that series was an astonishing 24.2 points in favor of the Nuggets. They had 58, 29, 21, and 15 point wins and just a 2 point loss on the road. They were ahead so much that they had the opportunity to give their key players some rest time. They should be really fresh after the last three days off and we expect them to easily take game one against the Mavericks.
Denver shot 49.8% field goals and 48.5% 3-point field goals in the five game series with the Hornets. They also held New Orleans to just 39.6% shooting and 32.6% 3-point field goals. They scored an average of 108.4 points per game and held the Hornets to just 84.2 points per game. Denver won the regular season series against Dallas 4-0. They were close games, winning by margins of 3, 10, 2, and 2 points. But Nene and Carmelo Anthony each had to sit out with injuries in both of the 2-point wins.
The Mavericks caught a break; they got to face the Spurs without one of their best players in Manu Ginobili. Without Ginobili it was easy for Dallas to defend the Spurs. Tony Parker was their only remaining playmaker, and it became easy to double team him once they realized that no other players were going to step up and score. Dallas won’t be able to handle Carmelo, Chauncey, and JR Smith in game 1 of this series. Go with Denver.
Mr. A's
Atlanta Hawks 5½
Denver Nuggets -6
Sunday, May 3, 2009 1:05 PM EST.
Baltimore Orioles (9-15) at Toronto Blue Jays (17-9)
(R) Jeremy Guthrie (2-1) vs. (R) Scott Richmond (3-0)
Oddsmakers: Toronto as a -135 home favorite with the total listed at 10 'over'.
Toronto Blue Jays 135
Sunday, May 3, 2009 4:10 PM EST.
San Diego Padres (11-13) at Los Angeles Dodgers (17-8)
(R) Chad Gaudin (0-0) vs. (R) Chad Billingsley (4-0)
Oddsmakers: Los Angeles as a -230 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.
Los Angeles Dodgers -230
Atlanta Hawks 5½
Denver Nuggets -6
Sunday, May 3, 2009 1:05 PM EST.
Baltimore Orioles (9-15) at Toronto Blue Jays (17-9)
(R) Jeremy Guthrie (2-1) vs. (R) Scott Richmond (3-0)
Oddsmakers: Toronto as a -135 home favorite with the total listed at 10 'over'.
Toronto Blue Jays 135
Sunday, May 3, 2009 4:10 PM EST.
San Diego Padres (11-13) at Los Angeles Dodgers (17-8)
(R) Chad Gaudin (0-0) vs. (R) Chad Billingsley (4-0)
Oddsmakers: Los Angeles as a -230 home favorite with the total listed at 8½ 'over'.
Los Angeles Dodgers -230
Gina
Sunday, May 3rd, 2009 1:00 p.m. est.
Miami Heat (46-42) at Atlanta Hawks (50-38)
The Hawks have won six of the last 7 meetings against the Heat at Philips Arena and the straight-up winner in this series has covered the spread each time. Go with the Hawks to finally advance in a best-of-seven playoff series since 1970.
Atlanta Hawks -5½
Sunday May 3rd, 2009 1:35 p.m. est.
St. Louis Cardinals (17-8) at Washington Nationals (6-17)
(R) Kyle Lohse (3-0) vs. (L) John Lannan (0-3)
Go with the Cardinals with right-hander Kyle Lohse on the hill. St. Louis has won seven of the last 9 games versus the lackluster Nationals and Lohse is 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA in eight career games, including six starts against Washington.
St. Louis Cardinals -125
Sunday, May 3rd, 2009 1:00 p.m. est.
Miami Heat (46-42) at Atlanta Hawks (50-38)
The Hawks have won six of the last 7 meetings against the Heat at Philips Arena and the straight-up winner in this series has covered the spread each time. Go with the Hawks to finally advance in a best-of-seven playoff series since 1970.
Atlanta Hawks -5½
Sunday May 3rd, 2009 1:35 p.m. est.
St. Louis Cardinals (17-8) at Washington Nationals (6-17)
(R) Kyle Lohse (3-0) vs. (L) John Lannan (0-3)
Go with the Cardinals with right-hander Kyle Lohse on the hill. St. Louis has won seven of the last 9 games versus the lackluster Nationals and Lohse is 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA in eight career games, including six starts against Washington.
St. Louis Cardinals -125
Johnny Guild
Sunday, May 3, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Miami Heat (46-42) at Atlanta Hawks (50-38)
Expect another low scoring clash in Atlanta on Sunday. The total has gone 'under' in eight of the last 10 meetings and four of the last 6 in Atlanta..
Under - 181
Sunday, May 3, 2009 3:30 PM EST.
Dallas Mavericks (54-33) at Denver Nuggets (58-29)
Denver is 7-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the last eight clashes versus Dallas. Look for Chauncey Billups and crew at home to seize their fifth straight win over Mavericks. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings versus the Mavericks at Pepsi Center.
Denver Nuggets -6.5
Sunday, May 3, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Miami Heat (46-42) at Atlanta Hawks (50-38)
Expect another low scoring clash in Atlanta on Sunday. The total has gone 'under' in eight of the last 10 meetings and four of the last 6 in Atlanta..
Under - 181
Sunday, May 3, 2009 3:30 PM EST.
Dallas Mavericks (54-33) at Denver Nuggets (58-29)
Denver is 7-1 both straight-up and against the spread in the last eight clashes versus Dallas. Look for Chauncey Billups and crew at home to seize their fifth straight win over Mavericks. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings versus the Mavericks at Pepsi Center.
Denver Nuggets -6.5
Wunderdog
Game: Miami at Atlanta (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 181 -110
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Game: Miami at Atlanta (1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 181 -110
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We come off one of the most exciting 7-game NBA playoff series ever between Boston and Chicago and we get this series. It too is a 7-game series but it hasn't been exciting. All of the first six games have been double-digit blowouts. The Hawks have won their three games by an average of 17 points and Miami by 23 on average. There have been a total of 12 lead changes in the entire series with none coming after the first quarter of play! I expect this trend to hold for this final game and am going UNDER. Game 7 means increased intensity, and defense. Atlanta has scored under 95 points in seven of their last eight games. They have held six of those opponents under triple figures. Miami's resume looks very similar. In division games, these teams have combined for 27-16 UNDER this season! The Hawks are now 27-17 UNDER this season vs. winning teams. They are also 26-16 UNDER when revenging a loss (that includes 13-3 UNDER revenging a double-digit road loss). Miami is 13-5 UNDER this season coming off a double-digit win. Take the UNDER.
