Service Plays Sunday 04/19/09

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Indian Cowboy

6 Unit Series Wager.

PARLAY DENVER -220 & ORLANDO -1000 for the Series.

A 6 Unit Wager will yield you 3.6 Units here. Given that each of our plays are 4 Units, this is a standard wager for us and we are riding two teams that both have home court advantages and have a nice set of advantages in this series. I talk about each series in the daily page on the Research, so I will have more thoughts on these two teams tomorrow. But, bear in mind that the Nuggets closed the year very strong. They have won 8 of their last 10 and I love the fact they come off a 76-104 loss at Portland. That's great. In fact, Karl probably wanted his team to come off that loss so they remain focused and fired up for this game. These two teams have met four times so far this year and have actually split. Each team has won home once and each team has won on the road once. Denver won 101-88 last time out on the road, New Orleans won 94-81 at home prior to that, Denver won 105-100 at home and New Orleans won 101-105 on the road. But, the difference to this series and frankly, the difference in how these two teams finished the regular season is the fact that Denver has a bench that is stepping up with JR Smith and has a General this year as compared to last year. Billups has stabilized this team to 54 wins on the year, plus New Orleans has just not been clicking well to close the year out. This team has lost 6 of their last 8 and finished 1-3 on the road this year. Again, I love the fact that Denver comes off an ugly loss to Portland the road, they win at home on Sunday, and I expect them to pick up right where they left off winning 7 of their last 9 as compared to New Orleans who simply won 2 of their last 8. I got nothing against New Orleans, this team is solid, plays strong defense and has a great general of their own in Chris Paul. But, bear in mind the way New Orleans struggled on the road at San Antonio, at Dallas, losing 66-86 at Houston, the home court advantage of Denver, I suspect Denver wins this series in 6 games as they pluck off a road win in the process. As per Orlando, not much needs to be said outside the fact Orlando has covered and won all 3 times these two teams have met, the Magic are well rested, and Philadelphia comes into this game 1-6 over their last 7 games and even the win at Cleveland in OT was a failed cover as they were laying 3 as Lebron was out in that game. Denver in 6 and Orlando in 5.
 

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PowerPlay Wins

PowerPlay Wins
BASEBALL:

Yankees -1.5
Rockies +108

NBA:
Magic -9:toast:.5
 
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John Ryan Bonus Play

Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they host the Braves slated to start at 1:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 70-26 making 47.4 units since 1997. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that is a poor NL offensive team scoring <=4.1 runs/game facing a team with a bad bullpen sporting an ERA>=5.00 and starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. Atlanta is 8-20 (-16.0 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons; Atlanta is 5-15 (-14.3 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Pirates.
 
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BeatYourBookie
Daily Premium Hoops
& Hockey Winners for Sunday


NBA Basketball
100* Play New Orleans (+6) over Denver (NBA)
Denver is 5-10 ATS vs. New Orleans at home
Denver is 1-3 ATS over the last 4 games
Denver is 1-8 SU when playing in the 1st round of the playoffs
Denver is allowing an average of 103 ppg on defense over the last 5 games


100* Play Miami (+5) over Atlanta (NBA)
Miami is 6-2 ATS over the last 8 games
Miami is 4-2 ATS vs. Atlanta on the road the last 3 seasons

Other Hoops & Hockey Plays
50* Play Carolina (-140) over New Jersey (NHL)
 
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BeatYourBookie

MLB Baseball for Sunday
100* Play NY Yankees (-250) over Cleveland
50* Play Tampa Bay (-170) over Chicago White Sox
50* Play Kansas City (+100) over Texas
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Seabass

20* baseball

minn
arizona
mil
over phillies game
under yanks
 
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SEABASS

20* BASKETBALL

ATL/MIAMI UNDER
NO/DENVER OVER
New Orleans

20* BASEBALL
minn
arizona
mil
over phillies game
under yanks
 
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Malinsky (8-1) last 2 days in Bases per website

Today’s Free Pick
GAME: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants Apr 19, 2009 4:05PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: over
Offered at: 8
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #962 SAN FRANCISCO/ARIZONA Over

It is going to be a nice “summer” day in San Francisco, with the first pitch temperature in the upper 70's and a slight breeze blowing out to right field. That does not call for the cheap “8’s” that the betting markets reduced this game to in the early trading (you should be able to find one at no worse than -105).

Randy Johnson is off to an 0-2/11.42 start, and at this stage we have to wonder if that is all that there is left. He last only 8.2 innings through those two games, laboring through 175 pitches to merely get that far, and Mike Cameron, Yovani Gallardo (!), Orlando Hudson and Andre Ethier have already homered against him. And while his statistics were decent LY take note of how they got put together – of the 95 pitchers that worked at least 150 innings, his difficulty of batters faced was dead last at #95 (as always, we use On Base + Slugging as our preferred measure). Now he faces a lineup that is most familiar with his ways, and he will have a difficult time getting deep into this one. That opens the door against a mediocre Giant bullpen, one that also has particular late-game issues with closer Brian Wilson already throwing 41 pitches in working each game of this series.

Arizona counters with hard-throwing Max Scherzer, for a while. But maybe not for long. Scherzer only got 8.2 innings of work in the Cactus League, and went 4.2 in a AAA start and five frames in his lone outing with the Diamondbacks. That does not have him anywhere near the kind of rhythm and conditioning needed to make more than a couple of passes through a lineup, and note that he has yet to pitch beyond the 6th inning in his Major League career.

There are multiple ways to win this one – hitters that have been had-cuffed so far in this series can get some good early swings in the warm conditions against the fastballs that they are going to see, but even if Johnson and Scherzer can be effective at the start we do not expect either to be around when the 7th inning takes place. That means late opportunities against middle relief corps that are unimposing, and it does not ask us for much at all to top this low Total.
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ATS Lock Club

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->4 Lakers
3 Heat
4 Pirates
4 over 10 NYY/Clev
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Mike Rose
Milwaukee Brewers r951
New York Mets r952
o9.5 (-115) / 3 units
3* MIL/NYM OVER 9� -115 (SUPPAN/FIGUEROA) ACTION 1:10 ET (BETUS)


Mike Rose
Baltimore Orioles r973
(185) / 2 units
2* BAL +185 (UEHARA) VS. BOS (LESTER) ACTION 1:35 ET (BOOKMAKER)


Mike Rose
Detroit Tigers r979
Seattle Mariners r980
o9.5 / 3 units
3* DET/SEA OVER 9� -110 (PORCELLO/SILVA) ACTION 4:10 ET (BETUS)
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Burns

Baseball (MLB)

APRIL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH!
TEXAS

Game: Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 4/19/2009 3:05:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers

UNDER cards/cubs

Game: St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Game Time: 4/19/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under *Central Division TOM
 
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GameHunter

Not a service but a good baseball capper.

2009 Record: 45-29, +34.985 Palmers
Saturday: 7-1, +9.865 units

TEXAS -124 (1.75 UNITS)

DETROIT +106 (1.75 UNITS)

COLORADO +120 (1.75 UNITS)

NY YANKEES -1.5 (-110) (1.25 UNITS)

LA ANGELS +131 (1.25 UNITS)

BALTIMORE +190 (1.25 UNITS)

WASHINGTON +143 (1.25 UNITS)

PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (????) (1.25 UNITS)
 
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RatedPicks 4/19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NBA - (paid plays)
LA Lakers - 11.5
Orlando Magic -9
*BP*Miami Heat +5 (small lean towards the ML)
Denver Nuggets -6

MLB - (paid plays)
Chicago White Sox +145
Oakland A's +105
Cleveland Indians +200


(Bonus Plays)
D'Backs+105
Magic/76ers OVER 190.5
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igz1 sports

Sunday Card
Saturday Recap: 1-1 ( +2 pts)

NBA
3* Miami +5 (-110)

NHL
3* Pittsburgh +110

MLB
4* Pittsburgh -105
3* Cleveland +200
3* Over 10 (-105) Baltimore vs Boston
Good Luck !
 

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