Bob Valentino
Thursday's 25 Dime winner! 50 DIME -- MICHIGAN STATE (plus the points vs. Louisville)
NOTE: As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more points on a favorite than you have to ... or take fewer points on an underdog than are available!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------------- GL GUYS
Thursday's 25 Dime winner! 50 DIME -- MICHIGAN STATE (plus the points vs. Louisville)
NOTE: As always, be sure to shop around and get the best of the number! Never lay more points on a favorite than you have to ... or take fewer points on an underdog than are available!
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED---------------- GL GUYS
Vr
<style>BODY { MARGIN: 8px } .tr-field { FONT: x-small arial } </style> <dt class="dtPgTop">vegas-runner</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">triple-dime bet</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">719 Michigan St. 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 720 Louisville</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">Analysis: *** NCAABB ELITE EIGHT 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***</dt>
double-dime bet
721 Oklahoma 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 722 North Carolina
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
<dt class="dtPgTop">triple-dime bet</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">716 NOH 1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 715 SAN</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">Analysis: *** NBA on ESPN 3* BEST BET of the WEEK ***</dt>
<style>BODY { MARGIN: 8px } .tr-field { FONT: x-small arial } </style> <dt class="dtPgTop">vegas-runner</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">triple-dime bet</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">719 Michigan St. 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 720 Louisville</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">Analysis: *** NCAABB ELITE EIGHT 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***</dt>
double-dime bet
721 Oklahoma 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 722 North Carolina
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
<dt class="dtPgTop">triple-dime bet</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">716 NOH 1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 715 SAN</dt> <dt class="dtPgTop">Analysis: *** NBA on ESPN 3* BEST BET of the WEEK ***</dt>
Michigan State (138') vs Louisville (-7) @ Indianapolis - 2:20 p.m. EST
Last year in the Elite Eight, Rick Pitino's Cards were turned back by North Carolina in a game that was played in the Tar Heels' back yard. Well, Louisville gets theirs today as before a huge throng of Cardinal faithful in Indy, Louisville will stamp its ticket to the Final Four with this thorough double-digit win and cover. Michigan State has had a nice season, but it's now evident that winning the regular season Big Ten title pales in comparison to what the Cards have accomplished this year in the mighty Big East. Disappointed a year ago at this stage, The Cards will not be denied this afternoon. Michigan State, 2-5 ATS last seven versus Big East foes, tends to struggle against long athletic frontcourts (see last year's Sweet 16 blowout loss to Memphis) and that's what Louisville has in Earl Clark and Terrence Williams. Tom Izzo is reluctant to play zone and the Spartans will have matchup problems with the Cards. MSU was outrebounded by Kansas Friday night while shooting under 40% and allowing the Jayhawks to make better than 45% of their shots. A repeat performance today and they'll lose by 25 to this Louisville team that shot 57% in blasting Arizona Friday. The Cards have won 13 straight games, shooting 51% from the floor, 42% from behind the arc while outrebounding their opponents by two per contest and forcing three more turnovers per game than they commit. They're on a 15-7 ATS run when laying points and they just have too much quickness and athleticsm for Kalain Lucas and the overmatched Spartans. Tom Izzo's club will play hard, they always do, but they'll be outclassed in the second half as Louisville wins this one going away.
LOUISVILLE (-7) 5000 Dime High Roller
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Michigan State (138') vs Louisville (-7) @ Indianapolis - 2:20 p.m. EST
Plenty of trends to support the under in this game, but that's only giving us great value as this one from Indy is sailing over the posted price. Both Elite Eight games Saturday topped the final tally and this one will, as well. In winning 13 straight games, Louisville is averaging better than 79 ppg on 51% shooting. They shot better than 57% in Friday's blasting of Arizona in going over for the third time in the last four games. Michigan State has also sailed over in three of four as this is a solid free throw shooting team picks up plenty of easy points at the charity stripe. There will be plenty of points in this one and Louisville, which has gone over in seven of its last eight as a neutral court fav of 6 1/2 to 9 points, often has moments of defenisve lapses. Big first half of points today, and then free throws down the stretch helps get this game over.
OVER (138') 5000 Dime High Roller
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Oklahoma (+7) vs North Carolina (165) @ Memphis - 5:05 p.m. EST
Love the points in this Elite Eight matchup as I will not be surprised in the least if Oklahoma wins this game outright. Yes, the Sooners have the Player of the Year in Blake Griffin (30.3 ppg in three tournament games), but OU is much more than Griffin as this team has comprable talent, size, depth and quickness to North Carolina. I'm saying the Sooners are uber quick with guards Tony Crocker (28 points against Syracuse Friday) and fast frosh Willie Warren. Then there's Austin Johnson, the lanky, long-armed guard who is defensively stout enough to give the Heels' Ty Lawson problems. Carolina, which is on ATS funks of 10-17 as a favorite and 3-7 versus teams with winning records, hasn't faced a team this quick in a long, long time. Yet once again, UNC is being asked to cover an inflated price that they will not be able to do. Flat out, North Carolina will be forturnate to survive and move on against an OU team that is 3-0 SU/ATS in the tournament and has covered five of its last seven neutral court games. They do an excellent job defenisvely of switching back-and-forth to zone and man defenses. Tyler Hansbrough has faced some talented big men in his career, but none that combines the strength and quickness that Griffin has. The Sooners have shot 54.4% in their three tournament wins, and while they won't shoot as well in this one, they will drain enough shots both inside and outside to stay inaside this beefy price.
OKLAHOMA (+7) 5000 Dime High Roller
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 5000 Dime Elite Eight High Roller Late Game Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr754_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_754 -->Oklahoma (165) vs North Carolina (-7) @ Memphis - 5:05 p.m. EST
These two clubs have piled up some big offenisve numbers here in the Big Dance, but they both know a little about defense, too, and in this battle to see who is going to the Final Four, every possession will be hotly contested and this game will stay low. Bottom line is this is just too many points. The Tar Heels have stayed under in three of their last four overall, five of eight on neutral courts and five of six when playing on one or no days rest. The Sooners have stayed under in three of four as a dog this year and 18 of 27 when getting points the laast three years. When their backs are against the wall, the Sooners and Blake Griffin turn to defense. This one will be a big time physical contest and it will stay below the final posted price.
UNDER (165) 5000 Dime High Roller
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BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED --------GL--------GUYS
Last year in the Elite Eight, Rick Pitino's Cards were turned back by North Carolina in a game that was played in the Tar Heels' back yard. Well, Louisville gets theirs today as before a huge throng of Cardinal faithful in Indy, Louisville will stamp its ticket to the Final Four with this thorough double-digit win and cover. Michigan State has had a nice season, but it's now evident that winning the regular season Big Ten title pales in comparison to what the Cards have accomplished this year in the mighty Big East. Disappointed a year ago at this stage, The Cards will not be denied this afternoon. Michigan State, 2-5 ATS last seven versus Big East foes, tends to struggle against long athletic frontcourts (see last year's Sweet 16 blowout loss to Memphis) and that's what Louisville has in Earl Clark and Terrence Williams. Tom Izzo is reluctant to play zone and the Spartans will have matchup problems with the Cards. MSU was outrebounded by Kansas Friday night while shooting under 40% and allowing the Jayhawks to make better than 45% of their shots. A repeat performance today and they'll lose by 25 to this Louisville team that shot 57% in blasting Arizona Friday. The Cards have won 13 straight games, shooting 51% from the floor, 42% from behind the arc while outrebounding their opponents by two per contest and forcing three more turnovers per game than they commit. They're on a 15-7 ATS run when laying points and they just have too much quickness and athleticsm for Kalain Lucas and the overmatched Spartans. Tom Izzo's club will play hard, they always do, but they'll be outclassed in the second half as Louisville wins this one going away.
LOUISVILLE (-7) 5000 Dime High Roller
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Michigan State (138') vs Louisville (-7) @ Indianapolis - 2:20 p.m. EST
Plenty of trends to support the under in this game, but that's only giving us great value as this one from Indy is sailing over the posted price. Both Elite Eight games Saturday topped the final tally and this one will, as well. In winning 13 straight games, Louisville is averaging better than 79 ppg on 51% shooting. They shot better than 57% in Friday's blasting of Arizona in going over for the third time in the last four games. Michigan State has also sailed over in three of four as this is a solid free throw shooting team picks up plenty of easy points at the charity stripe. There will be plenty of points in this one and Louisville, which has gone over in seven of its last eight as a neutral court fav of 6 1/2 to 9 points, often has moments of defenisve lapses. Big first half of points today, and then free throws down the stretch helps get this game over.
OVER (138') 5000 Dime High Roller
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Oklahoma (+7) vs North Carolina (165) @ Memphis - 5:05 p.m. EST
Love the points in this Elite Eight matchup as I will not be surprised in the least if Oklahoma wins this game outright. Yes, the Sooners have the Player of the Year in Blake Griffin (30.3 ppg in three tournament games), but OU is much more than Griffin as this team has comprable talent, size, depth and quickness to North Carolina. I'm saying the Sooners are uber quick with guards Tony Crocker (28 points against Syracuse Friday) and fast frosh Willie Warren. Then there's Austin Johnson, the lanky, long-armed guard who is defensively stout enough to give the Heels' Ty Lawson problems. Carolina, which is on ATS funks of 10-17 as a favorite and 3-7 versus teams with winning records, hasn't faced a team this quick in a long, long time. Yet once again, UNC is being asked to cover an inflated price that they will not be able to do. Flat out, North Carolina will be forturnate to survive and move on against an OU team that is 3-0 SU/ATS in the tournament and has covered five of its last seven neutral court games. They do an excellent job defenisvely of switching back-and-forth to zone and man defenses. Tyler Hansbrough has faced some talented big men in his career, but none that combines the strength and quickness that Griffin has. The Sooners have shot 54.4% in their three tournament wins, and while they won't shoot as well in this one, they will drain enough shots both inside and outside to stay inaside this beefy price.
OKLAHOMA (+7) 5000 Dime High Roller
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=505 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE id=Table_01 height=29 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=banner3 width="100%">Stu's 5000 Dime Elite Eight High Roller Late Game Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE id=Table_01 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=left><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=DNNAlignleft id=dnn_ctr754_ContentPane align=left width="100%"><!-- Start_Module_754 -->Oklahoma (165) vs North Carolina (-7) @ Memphis - 5:05 p.m. EST
These two clubs have piled up some big offenisve numbers here in the Big Dance, but they both know a little about defense, too, and in this battle to see who is going to the Final Four, every possession will be hotly contested and this game will stay low. Bottom line is this is just too many points. The Tar Heels have stayed under in three of their last four overall, five of eight on neutral courts and five of six when playing on one or no days rest. The Sooners have stayed under in three of four as a dog this year and 18 of 27 when getting points the laast three years. When their backs are against the wall, the Sooners and Blake Griffin turn to defense. This one will be a big time physical contest and it will stay below the final posted price.
UNDER (165) 5000 Dime High Roller
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BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED --------GL--------GUYS
Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- OKLAHOMA
15 Dime ---- LAKERS
5 Dime ---- LOUISVILLE
OKLAHOMA --- Top play today on the Oklahoma Sooners PLUS the points to challenge North Carolina for the outright win.
Before even handicapping this game myself, I was inundated with stories about how UNC was going to run the Sooners out of the gym. Not many outside the Sooner state are giving OU a chance to keep this game within ten. And while occasionally the general public is correct, in many cases they are dead wrong and I believe this to be the case today. There’s no question how much talent North Carolina has… especially with a healthy Ty Lawson running the point and scoring at will. But let’s not forget something… the Tar Heels don’t really care about playing defense. And although it hasn’t caught up with them yet, they also haven’t played a team that can make them pay for their lack of defense like Oklahoma can and will.
I believe the fact North Carolina wants this game in the 90s plays right into OU’s hands, because they can score with just about anyone. Shoot, they took their foot off the gas against Syracuse (a team that many handicappers had you believing was the hottest team in the tourney) and still scored 84. What others also had you believing was that the Orange had enough big thugs inside to beat up on Blake Griffin and take him out of his game. Well, 30 points and 14 rebounds later, Griffin was still dominating and just continues to get better. The only thing that slowed Griffin down was the backboard on a dunk from the baseline. It amazes me the comparisons of Tyler Hansborough to Blake Griffin. PLEASE!!! It’s not even close. I’m not dogging Hansborough, but he’s a stiff compared to Griffin and it will finally be proven today.
And let’s not forget all of the “role players” for both teams. I don’t know about you, but I’m getting sick and tired of hearing about Ellington and Lawson and Green. What about Crocker, Johnson and Warren? It absolutely boggles my mind that these guys don’t get any credit, but after they compete hard for 40 minutes against the Heels, the world will know who they are. And remember this… the Sooners were once considered the best team in the nation until Griffin went down with a concussion. It’s taken him a while, but he’s finally back to full strength and it’s shown over the first three games of the tourney. Now, back to those “role players”, one Tony Crocker. Since hitting 6 of 11 from distance back on Feb. 7 against Colorado, Crocker had gone cold nailing just 7 of his next 33… until Friday. Crocker hit 7 of 11 from downtown and appears to have found his stroke again. If the Tar Heels decide to double-down on Griffin, Crocker might start lighting a fire from outside. Beware.
Both teams are 6-1 SU on a neutral floor this year. OU is 4-1 ATS in their last five tourney games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on a neutral floor. Oh yeah, I almost forgot. The Heels are just 1-6 ATS following a game in which they score more than 90 points and just 2-8 ATS following an ATS win. I wasn’t impressed with their 84-70 win over LSU and I’m telling you right now OU is loads better than LSU. Take the Sooners PLUS the points and don’t be surprised to see the SU upset win.
LA LAKERS --- I realize this is a road game for the Lakers and the Hawks are a fairly solid home team, but let’s not forget the fact the Hawks have dropped two straight at home. These two teams have identical records (Atlanta and the Lakers on the road), but they’re currently headed in opposite directions. The Lakers, who are currently chasing Cleveland for the best record in the NBA and home court advantage throughout the playoffs, have won five straight and eight of their last nine… all by six points or more and six of them on the road.
The last time these two met was back in February, and L.A. decided to play a little defense, beating the Hawks 96-83 as 8.5-point favorites. Though Atlanta will do whatever they can to stop Kobe Bryant, I’m not sure they have an answer for Pau Gasol, who hit 14 of 19 shots in their last win over New Jersey. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS win, 4-0 ATS their last four as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. teams from the Eastern Conference. Guys, this one’s easy. Take the Lakers minus the small number to win by at least 10 today.
LOUISVILLE --- I’m a Big 10 guy and would love nothing more than to see Michigan State win this game to represent the conference in the Final Four. I’m kinda sick and tired of hearing about how mighty the Big East is, and if MSU was able to pull off the upset, we’d have two teams from the Big East, one from the Big 10 and one from either the Big 12 or ACC. More flavor, don’t you think? But my wishes are NOT going to come true as I see a 10-point + win from the Cardinals today. Rick Pitino is no stranger to this position, just like his counterpart, Tom Izzo, and you can bet he realizes this might be his best chance since his days in Kentucky at a National Championship.
Does MSU have talent? Absolutely. And if they can keep Louisville playing the type of game they want to play this game will end in the 60s. But one thing that I believe will, in the end, be State’s downfall is the lack of enough ball-handlers to beat Louisville’s press. All it’s going to take is a few mishaps in the backcourt and Michigan State will quickly find themselves down by 10-15 points. Shoot, if Kansas can get them down that quickly, what’s to say the Cardinals can’t open up a 20-point lead with all of those athletes and sharp-shooters? MSU will keep it close for a while, but in the end Louisville will be cutting down the nets and headed to the Final Four.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- OKLAHOMA
15 Dime ---- LAKERS
5 Dime ---- LOUISVILLE
OKLAHOMA --- Top play today on the Oklahoma Sooners PLUS the points to challenge North Carolina for the outright win.
Before even handicapping this game myself, I was inundated with stories about how UNC was going to run the Sooners out of the gym. Not many outside the Sooner state are giving OU a chance to keep this game within ten. And while occasionally the general public is correct, in many cases they are dead wrong and I believe this to be the case today. There’s no question how much talent North Carolina has… especially with a healthy Ty Lawson running the point and scoring at will. But let’s not forget something… the Tar Heels don’t really care about playing defense. And although it hasn’t caught up with them yet, they also haven’t played a team that can make them pay for their lack of defense like Oklahoma can and will.
I believe the fact North Carolina wants this game in the 90s plays right into OU’s hands, because they can score with just about anyone. Shoot, they took their foot off the gas against Syracuse (a team that many handicappers had you believing was the hottest team in the tourney) and still scored 84. What others also had you believing was that the Orange had enough big thugs inside to beat up on Blake Griffin and take him out of his game. Well, 30 points and 14 rebounds later, Griffin was still dominating and just continues to get better. The only thing that slowed Griffin down was the backboard on a dunk from the baseline. It amazes me the comparisons of Tyler Hansborough to Blake Griffin. PLEASE!!! It’s not even close. I’m not dogging Hansborough, but he’s a stiff compared to Griffin and it will finally be proven today.
And let’s not forget all of the “role players” for both teams. I don’t know about you, but I’m getting sick and tired of hearing about Ellington and Lawson and Green. What about Crocker, Johnson and Warren? It absolutely boggles my mind that these guys don’t get any credit, but after they compete hard for 40 minutes against the Heels, the world will know who they are. And remember this… the Sooners were once considered the best team in the nation until Griffin went down with a concussion. It’s taken him a while, but he’s finally back to full strength and it’s shown over the first three games of the tourney. Now, back to those “role players”, one Tony Crocker. Since hitting 6 of 11 from distance back on Feb. 7 against Colorado, Crocker had gone cold nailing just 7 of his next 33… until Friday. Crocker hit 7 of 11 from downtown and appears to have found his stroke again. If the Tar Heels decide to double-down on Griffin, Crocker might start lighting a fire from outside. Beware.
Both teams are 6-1 SU on a neutral floor this year. OU is 4-1 ATS in their last five tourney games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven on a neutral floor. Oh yeah, I almost forgot. The Heels are just 1-6 ATS following a game in which they score more than 90 points and just 2-8 ATS following an ATS win. I wasn’t impressed with their 84-70 win over LSU and I’m telling you right now OU is loads better than LSU. Take the Sooners PLUS the points and don’t be surprised to see the SU upset win.
LA LAKERS --- I realize this is a road game for the Lakers and the Hawks are a fairly solid home team, but let’s not forget the fact the Hawks have dropped two straight at home. These two teams have identical records (Atlanta and the Lakers on the road), but they’re currently headed in opposite directions. The Lakers, who are currently chasing Cleveland for the best record in the NBA and home court advantage throughout the playoffs, have won five straight and eight of their last nine… all by six points or more and six of them on the road.
The last time these two met was back in February, and L.A. decided to play a little defense, beating the Hawks 96-83 as 8.5-point favorites. Though Atlanta will do whatever they can to stop Kobe Bryant, I’m not sure they have an answer for Pau Gasol, who hit 14 of 19 shots in their last win over New Jersey. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS win, 4-0 ATS their last four as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. teams from the Eastern Conference. Guys, this one’s easy. Take the Lakers minus the small number to win by at least 10 today.
LOUISVILLE --- I’m a Big 10 guy and would love nothing more than to see Michigan State win this game to represent the conference in the Final Four. I’m kinda sick and tired of hearing about how mighty the Big East is, and if MSU was able to pull off the upset, we’d have two teams from the Big East, one from the Big 10 and one from either the Big 12 or ACC. More flavor, don’t you think? But my wishes are NOT going to come true as I see a 10-point + win from the Cardinals today. Rick Pitino is no stranger to this position, just like his counterpart, Tom Izzo, and you can bet he realizes this might be his best chance since his days in Kentucky at a National Championship.
Does MSU have talent? Absolutely. And if they can keep Louisville playing the type of game they want to play this game will end in the 60s. But one thing that I believe will, in the end, be State’s downfall is the lack of enough ball-handlers to beat Louisville’s press. All it’s going to take is a few mishaps in the backcourt and Michigan State will quickly find themselves down by 10-15 points. Shoot, if Kansas can get them down that quickly, what’s to say the Cardinals can’t open up a 20-point lead with all of those athletes and sharp-shooters? MSU will keep it close for a while, but in the end Louisville will be cutting down the nets and headed to the Final Four.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
The Hoops Guru Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, March 29, 2009
$49.00 Guaranteed: This year we are 45-24 with our DOUBLE PLAYS, 60-48 with our TRIPLE PLAYS and 25-11 with our QUADRUPLE PLAYS. The previous three years (not including this year) my DOUBLE PLAYS are 165-89, TRIPLE PLAYS are 133-61 and QUADRUPLE PLAYS are 27-8! Today we are featuring an NCAA MIDWEST REGION QUADRUPLE PLAY WINNER that you can get for just $49 and you will pay only after you win! 54-18 RUN! 3/29/2009
NCAA MIDWEST REGION QUADRUPLE PLAY WINNER
720 Louisville -6.5 2:20 EST
Date: Sunday, March 29, 2009
$49.00 Guaranteed: This year we are 45-24 with our DOUBLE PLAYS, 60-48 with our TRIPLE PLAYS and 25-11 with our QUADRUPLE PLAYS. The previous three years (not including this year) my DOUBLE PLAYS are 165-89, TRIPLE PLAYS are 133-61 and QUADRUPLE PLAYS are 27-8! Today we are featuring an NCAA MIDWEST REGION QUADRUPLE PLAY WINNER that you can get for just $49 and you will pay only after you win! 54-18 RUN! 3/29/2009
NCAA MIDWEST REGION QUADRUPLE PLAY WINNER
720 Louisville -6.5 2:20 EST
