Donn "THE SWAMI " Wagner
Advantage Sports' Plays for September 20th.
#322 Auburn UNDER 37.5
#335 Wake Forest +5
#383 UL-Monroe +6
We lost a totals play on this same game last year when some unusual things took place in Baton Rouge, but I strongly feel that we will see a return to form this year. Obviously, when you win a football game 3-2, you have some offensive issues. This year, LSU does as well with unsteady quarterback play. Auburn is in the same boat with a new offensive coordinator and two-headed quarterback system, neither of which has taken to the new "up tempo" offensive scheme. Neither team is moving the ball with any real regularity but their respective defenses are as solid as they come. LSU has not faced any defense as strong as the War Eagles, only meeting up with North Texas and Appalachian State. Neither junior Andrew Hatch or RS freshman Jarrett Lee have distinguished themselves. These games are always physical and hard fought with slim winning margins. From 2004 to 2006, the average total points fell in the teens. Only last year's game went past 37. The last two times LSU came to Jordan-Hare, they have managed only 12 total points with under 311 yards of total offense in each game. The 2008 Auburn defense is allowing only 5 points and 213 yards a game. LSU's D is still rock solid, even with the defection of former defensive coordinator Bo Pelini to Nebraska for the head job. His replacement, Wil Muschamp, has stepped right in and the Tigers are still a strong and deep unit. Points will be at a premium, as the form of this series returns to normal.
Auburn 13, LSU 9.
FSU is still a team that the public loves to bet, even of the current run hasn't produced many winning tickets. They have issues with academic scandal suspensions, lack of depth on the offensive line and questionable quarterback play. Meanwhile, Wake has a veteran team that has had two weeks to prep for this game, and the knowledge that they have won the past two years running, including that 30-0 wipeout in Tallahassee on their last visit. Due to coach Grobe's efforts to rebuild the program and redshirt incoming freshmen, he has excellent depth and very good talent, plus the best kicker in all of college football. The offense continues to hum and will use excellent misdirection to keep the faster FSU players from teeing off on defense. Grobe has been an excellent road underdog in ACC play, covering 67% of the time when getting points. Wake QB Riley Skinner is completing over 70% of his passes over the past 1.5 seasons. FSU has put up big numbers in unlined games so far which means nothing, so we will go with the deeper and probably better team in this one.
Wake Forest 27, Florida State 17.
Tulane has ad the extreme good fortune to look very good against two teams that had just come off of some very emotional wins. Alabama was played tough in Tuscaloosa the week after the Bama boys beat Clemson in a huge opener in Atlanta's Georgia Dome on national tv. The next week, they got East Carolina at home after the Pirates had two huge wins over Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Tulane lost both games, but probably felt that they had gone toe to toe with two national powers. This game, however, sets up poorly for them. They opened conference play last week and have a short week with another conference game against SMU upcoming on national tv, so little preparation will have gone into this one. Meanwhile, Monroe is off next week so they can bring their "A" Game for this one. The Wave have not been this big a favorite since 2004 and shouldn't be here. The offense has been stagnant and while the D represented well the past two weeks, that is likely more a situational stat than a reality stat. The Monroe offense is capable of staying in this game and Charlie Weatherbie will have his team focused. Bob Toledo may have focus issues following the tough loss against ECU last week. A good setup for an upset.
****UL Monroe 29, Tulane 21.
EDITOR'S NOTE:
**** Note this selection is also The Swami's STREAKER for 2008. UL Monroe is (1-0) for us so far.
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