Joe Gavazzi
PERCEPTION/REALITY GAME OF THE WEEK … Auburn (+7)
Auburn at LSU (-7) 3:30 ET CBS
We cashed a PERCEPTION/REALITY winner with Buffalo in this space last week, as the improved Bulls’ defense held Penn St. to just 328 points in a 27-14 loss, but cover as 18 point dog. Today’s selection on Auburn is equally hard to pull the trigger. For, the Tigers are off to a miserable 2-0 SU, but 0-2 ATS start, in which they failed to cover the number by 43 points. On top of last year’s 0-4 SU ATS lined-game finish and the fact that Auburn is now on a 2-10 ATS slide, means the betting public wants no part of Auburn. Last week, Auburn may have hit the nadir of their discontent. Following the opening game win, no cover, against Louisville (a team who lost as a double digit favorite, last week to Houston), Auburn was lethargic once again. Hosting lowly Jacksonville St. as 47 point home chalk, Auburn could win just 27-20 IN OVERTIME, BEING OUTGAINED 438-401. One of the culprits was new QB Johnson (where are you Nick Marshall?) who threw 2 more picks and now has 5 INTs for the season. Third year HC Malzahn, an offensive guru, is having sleepless nights with his 364 YPG offense (averaged nearly 500 YPG and 37 PPG in Malzahn’s first 2 years).
The thinking to fade Auburn continues with the PLAY ON mentality for LSU. For, the Bengals will be playing with humiliating 41-7 revenge for a loss at Auburn last year. It was for real, as they were outgained 566-268. It was their worst loss since 1996. Behind QB Harris and RB Fournette, LSU escaped with a 21-19 win in Starkville last week. It was a crushing loss for LSU backers who laid an inflated price. Although LSU was dominant in the trenches with a 266-43 edge, they could put up just 71 PY. Nonetheless, be assured that revenge aficionados will be out en masse for this “revenge game of the week.” That would be a mistake, as based on the results to date, the home-standing Tigers are laying a bloated number of (-7) (the same number they took at Auburn last year). Strengthening our case, are coaching personality profiles that find LSU HC Miles to be 8-23 ATS as conference home chalk coming off a victory, while Auburn’s respected HC Malzahn is 9-3 ATS when installed as underdog. This contrary play of the day cashes us another winning ticket!
