VEGAS EXPERTS
San Diego Chargers at St. Louis Rams
Norv Turner has promised to limit QB Phillip Rivers and the rest of the starters for tonight's preseason tilt in St. Louis, after having the play the bulk of the 1st half last week against Dallas. That means a lot of young players and evaluation this week. The Rams, meanwhile, look to be taking this game quite seriously after being pounded by Tennessee. Look for them to justify the line move in their favor.
Play on: St. Louis
San Diego Chargers at St. Louis Rams
Norv Turner has promised to limit QB Phillip Rivers and the rest of the starters for tonight's preseason tilt in St. Louis, after having the play the bulk of the 1st half last week against Dallas. That means a lot of young players and evaluation this week. The Rams, meanwhile, look to be taking this game quite seriously after being pounded by Tennessee. Look for them to justify the line move in their favor.
Play on: St. Louis
JBs Computer Plays
7:10 p.m. St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
(R) Joel Pineiro (5-5) vs. (R) Aaron Harang (3-12)
St. Louis Cardinals -110
8:05 p.m. Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
(R) Edwin Jackson (9-7) vs. (L) Matt Harrison (4-2)
Tampa Bay Rays -125
10:05 p.m. Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
(R) Kyle Kendrick (10-6) vs. (R) Chad Reineke (0-0)
Philadelphia Phillies -145
7:10 p.m. St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
(R) Joel Pineiro (5-5) vs. (R) Aaron Harang (3-12)
St. Louis Cardinals -110
8:05 p.m. Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
(R) Edwin Jackson (9-7) vs. (L) Matt Harrison (4-2)
Tampa Bay Rays -125
10:05 p.m. Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
(R) Kyle Kendrick (10-6) vs. (R) Chad Reineke (0-0)
Philadelphia Phillies -145
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta
As we noted in last weeks write-up, the Colts suffered a loss in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday, August 3rd. However, we expected that to give them an edge heading into the true Week 1 of the Preseason. Sure enough, although they lost in overtime to the Panthers, the Colts did get the cover in their second Week 1 game at Carolina on Saturday. With the Colts having an extra week this preseason, by virtue of playing in the Hall of Fame Game, they did not play their personnel versus the Redskins the way we felt they would last week against the Panthers and this week against the Falcons. Note that the Indianapolis loss was truly a bad beat for their backers in the Hall of Fame Game as they outgained Washington by 55 yards and they also had 24 first downs compared to just 20 for the Redskins. So, how did they lose by two touchdowns despite these solid numbers? It had a lot do with an interception run back for a touchdown late in the game. That was the key turnover in the game. However, it was also simply a case of laying down a bit too early. Up 16-9 in the third quarter and seemingly in control of at least the spread victory (Indianapolis was +4.5 in most shops), the Colts somehow saw things quickly become unraveled. Even though this was just a Preseason game it was still the type of effort that will have Coach Dungys troops a little hungrier this week. Thats because the Colts still ended up losing on Sunday at Carolina even though they got the cash. This means that Indianapolis is now 0-2 straight-up this preseason and they will look to get into the win column at Atlanta this week. Keep in mind that, in the Hall of Fame Game, Indianapolis saw Jim Sorgi complete 7 of 10 passes but he was an early exit from the game since the Colts were playing the first of five preseason games this year. Then, on Saturday against the Panthers, Sorgi completed 6 of 9 passes. Look for him to get in a little more work this week at Atlanta but note that Jared Lorenzen is coming off of a very big game for the Colts and that makes their QB rotation even more dangerous this week! The Colts have now let their games get away from them in EACH of the first two weeks so look for Indianapolis to close the deal with a win at Atlanta this week.
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Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta
As we noted in last weeks write-up, the Colts suffered a loss in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday, August 3rd. However, we expected that to give them an edge heading into the true Week 1 of the Preseason. Sure enough, although they lost in overtime to the Panthers, the Colts did get the cover in their second Week 1 game at Carolina on Saturday. With the Colts having an extra week this preseason, by virtue of playing in the Hall of Fame Game, they did not play their personnel versus the Redskins the way we felt they would last week against the Panthers and this week against the Falcons. Note that the Indianapolis loss was truly a bad beat for their backers in the Hall of Fame Game as they outgained Washington by 55 yards and they also had 24 first downs compared to just 20 for the Redskins. So, how did they lose by two touchdowns despite these solid numbers? It had a lot do with an interception run back for a touchdown late in the game. That was the key turnover in the game. However, it was also simply a case of laying down a bit too early. Up 16-9 in the third quarter and seemingly in control of at least the spread victory (Indianapolis was +4.5 in most shops), the Colts somehow saw things quickly become unraveled. Even though this was just a Preseason game it was still the type of effort that will have Coach Dungys troops a little hungrier this week. Thats because the Colts still ended up losing on Sunday at Carolina even though they got the cash. This means that Indianapolis is now 0-2 straight-up this preseason and they will look to get into the win column at Atlanta this week. Keep in mind that, in the Hall of Fame Game, Indianapolis saw Jim Sorgi complete 7 of 10 passes but he was an early exit from the game since the Colts were playing the first of five preseason games this year. Then, on Saturday against the Panthers, Sorgi completed 6 of 9 passes. Look for him to get in a little more work this week at Atlanta but note that Jared Lorenzen is coming off of a very big game for the Colts and that makes their QB rotation even more dangerous this week! The Colts have now let their games get away from them in EACH of the first two weeks so look for Indianapolis to close the deal with a win at Atlanta this week.
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[FONT=Arial, Verdana, sans-serif]Steven Budin-CEO[/FONT]
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SATURDAY'S PICK[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Verdana, sans-serif] [FONT=Arial, Verdana, sans-serif]25 DIME[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Verdana, sans-serif]ST. LOUIS CARDINALS[/FONT]
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SATURDAY'S PICK[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Verdana, sans-serif] [FONT=Arial, Verdana, sans-serif]25 DIME[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Verdana, sans-serif]ST. LOUIS CARDINALS[/FONT]
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ope:JIMMY BOYD
MLB | Aug 16
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates +152
1 Unit PLAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +152 (listing Duke and Martinez)
The Bucs have been swinging solid bats at home and I like them to get to Pedro, who doesn't have a dominant enough fastball anymore to really be effective. The Mets are just 2-6 in Martinez's last 8 starts, 0-4 in Martinez's last 4 starts vs. the National League Central, and 1-5 in Martinez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 9-3 in Duke's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. I like him to build off of his last performance and keep the Mets on their heels in this one. Bet the hom Bucs at a great price.
MLB | Aug 16
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates +152
1 Unit PLAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +152 (listing Duke and Martinez)
The Bucs have been swinging solid bats at home and I like them to get to Pedro, who doesn't have a dominant enough fastball anymore to really be effective. The Mets are just 2-6 in Martinez's last 8 starts, 0-4 in Martinez's last 4 starts vs. the National League Central, and 1-5 in Martinez's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Pirates are 9-3 in Duke's last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. I like him to build off of his last performance and keep the Mets on their heels in this one. Bet the hom Bucs at a great price.
WILD BILL
Sat., August 16
Phillies -130 (5 units)
Under 9 1/2 Mets-Pirates (5 units)
Mets -160 vs Duke (5 units)
Giants +120 vs Hampton (5 units)
Under 9 1/2 Rockies-Nationals (5 units)
Rockies +125 (5 units)
St Louis +110 (5 units)
Florida -105 (5 units)
Brewers +130 (5 units)
Angels -125 (5 units)
Over 10 Orioles-Tigers (5 units)
Tampa -110 vs Harrison (5 units)
White Sox w/Danks -125 (5 units)
Under 8 A's-White Sox (5 units)
Sat., August 16
Phillies -130 (5 units)
Under 9 1/2 Mets-Pirates (5 units)
Mets -160 vs Duke (5 units)
Giants +120 vs Hampton (5 units)
Under 9 1/2 Rockies-Nationals (5 units)
Rockies +125 (5 units)
St Louis +110 (5 units)
Florida -105 (5 units)
Brewers +130 (5 units)
Angels -125 (5 units)
Over 10 Orioles-Tigers (5 units)
Tampa -110 vs Harrison (5 units)
White Sox w/Danks -125 (5 units)
Under 8 A's-White Sox (5 units)
Plays from Yesterday Bluejays/Redsox...
Make up today Halladay Vs Byrd
MACK ATTACK MLB PLAY OF THE DAY !!! 2-0 Thursday: Dennis swept the board on Thursday including the Cubs as his MLB Play of the Day. Superior pitching in a good spot backed by big techs equals BIG PROFITS and that's exactly what we're looking at tonight. Start the weekend with plenty of ammo after this crush shot winner !!!
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Aug 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Reason: There's nothing bad to say about Roy Halladay who has exact 15 runs of support in his nine losses. He's just 10-10 and 4.31 LT against the Res Sox so certainly not unsolveable. Paul Byrd makes his Boston debut in great form, 4-0 and 1.24 in L4. He's a season vet that's been there done that with the Indians last year so he's no stranger to stretch drive.He also sports 2.86 career ERA vs Toronto. In virtual pick'em, side with the home team that is so tough at Fenway
John Ryan
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Aug 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER Toronto/Boston – AiS shows a 79% probability that 9 or more runs will be scored in this game. Boston bats obviously hot batting 305 and scoring 8 RPG over the past 7 days. They do their best in home games sporting a 296 BA and scoring 5.9 RPG. Boston bullpen showing signs of fatigue as they have posted a 6.06 ERA allowing 4 HR in the last 7 games spanning 16.3 IP. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 118-57 for 67% since 1997. Play over with road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities and starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Toronto starter Halladay has been just great, BUT in his last start he allowed 10 hits in 6.7 IP. Boston new comer Byrd gets his fist start at Fenway and the pressure will be on. He has allowed 20 of his 23 HR on grass fields. Moreover, he has allowed 23 HR in just 22 starts. Boston is 20-10 OVER (+9.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (11-5 s/June 17): Larry enters Friday on a "money-making" run of 69-43 in MLB since June 30. Going back to June 17, he's 11-5 when designating a game an Oddsmaker's Error. Friday, Larry's expert analysis will detail all the particulars of just why his latest Oddsmaker's Error play is "a bargain at this price!" Get it now and win with Larry.
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Aug 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Reason: How much have the Red Sox missed Manny? It seems the obvious answer is, not very much! Manny was sent to LA on July 31 but the Red Sox are 10-3 in August, averaging a robust 7.23 RPG (had averaged 4.94 RPG prior to that). The Red Sox enter this game 71-51 overall and with a 43-16 mark here in Fenway, where they've outscored the opposition by an average of 5.95-to-4.00 RPG. Despite typically high prices to overcome here at home, the team is plus-$1,882 vs moneyline, second in all of MLB to only the ever-surprising Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays come to Boston for a three-game set with a 28-34 record on the road, getting outscore 4.23-to-4.27 RPG. INCREDIBLY, Toronto opened the favorite in this game, although by late-morning on Friday, the Red Sox are now the small favorite (you think?). Now no one puts any more emphasis on starting pitchers than I do but the linemakers really gave too much credit to Roy Halladay and not nearly enough credit to Paul Byrd, while totally IGNORING Boston's home dominance. Halladay is a terrific pitcher but let's look at his '08 record. He's 13-9 with a 2.76 ERA, with the Blue Jays going a very mediocre 13-11 in his starts. Regulars know I love to compare how teams do with that game's starting pitcher on the mound against how they do when he's not on the mound. Doing the math finds the Blue Jays are hardly any better with Halladay on the hill, as they are 13-11 (.542) with him and 49-49 (.500) without him. That's clearly "no big deal!" He's never had much success vs Boston, posting a 10-11 (4.66 ERA) lifetime mark in 31 starts (Jays are 13-18) against the Red Sox. These last two years, he's made seven starts vs Boston (two TY and five in '07), going 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA (team is 2-5). As for Paul Byrd, he was coming off a superb 2007 season in which he went 15-8 but he a had a terrible first half for the Indians (3-10). However, how can one ignore his 4-0 mark since the break, where he's allowed just four ERs over 29 innings (1.24 ERA)? His most recent start for the Indians (before his fortunate trade to Boston) came against these Blue Jays in Toronto and he was matched up against Halladay. Pitching for a Cleveland team which is just 23-38 on the road as we speak, Byrd out-dueled Halladay in a 4-2 win. So here, pitching in front of a Boston team which is not only 43-16 at home but 32-12 in Fenway vs right-handed starters (averaging 5.9 RPG), why SHOULDN'T he best Toronto and Halladay again? And why SHOULDN'T the price on him be steeper? It should be and that's why my Oddsmaker's Error is on the Bos Red Sox
Make up today Halladay Vs Byrd
MACK ATTACK MLB PLAY OF THE DAY !!! 2-0 Thursday: Dennis swept the board on Thursday including the Cubs as his MLB Play of the Day. Superior pitching in a good spot backed by big techs equals BIG PROFITS and that's exactly what we're looking at tonight. Start the weekend with plenty of ammo after this crush shot winner !!!
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Aug 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Reason: There's nothing bad to say about Roy Halladay who has exact 15 runs of support in his nine losses. He's just 10-10 and 4.31 LT against the Res Sox so certainly not unsolveable. Paul Byrd makes his Boston debut in great form, 4-0 and 1.24 in L4. He's a season vet that's been there done that with the Indians last year so he's no stranger to stretch drive.He also sports 2.86 career ERA vs Toronto. In virtual pick'em, side with the home team that is so tough at Fenway
John Ryan
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Aug 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: over
Reason: Ai Simulator 5* graded play OVER Toronto/Boston – AiS shows a 79% probability that 9 or more runs will be scored in this game. Boston bats obviously hot batting 305 and scoring 8 RPG over the past 7 days. They do their best in home games sporting a 296 BA and scoring 5.9 RPG. Boston bullpen showing signs of fatigue as they have posted a 6.06 ERA allowing 4 HR in the last 7 games spanning 16.3 IP. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 118-57 for 67% since 1997. Play over with road teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities and starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Toronto starter Halladay has been just great, BUT in his last start he allowed 10 hits in 6.7 IP. Boston new comer Byrd gets his fist start at Fenway and the pressure will be on. He has allowed 20 of his 23 HR on grass fields. Moreover, he has allowed 23 HR in just 22 starts. Boston is 20-10 OVER (+9.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (11-5 s/June 17): Larry enters Friday on a "money-making" run of 69-43 in MLB since June 30. Going back to June 17, he's 11-5 when designating a game an Oddsmaker's Error. Friday, Larry's expert analysis will detail all the particulars of just why his latest Oddsmaker's Error play is "a bargain at this price!" Get it now and win with Larry.
Game: Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox Aug 15 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Reason: How much have the Red Sox missed Manny? It seems the obvious answer is, not very much! Manny was sent to LA on July 31 but the Red Sox are 10-3 in August, averaging a robust 7.23 RPG (had averaged 4.94 RPG prior to that). The Red Sox enter this game 71-51 overall and with a 43-16 mark here in Fenway, where they've outscored the opposition by an average of 5.95-to-4.00 RPG. Despite typically high prices to overcome here at home, the team is plus-$1,882 vs moneyline, second in all of MLB to only the ever-surprising Tampa Bay Rays. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays come to Boston for a three-game set with a 28-34 record on the road, getting outscore 4.23-to-4.27 RPG. INCREDIBLY, Toronto opened the favorite in this game, although by late-morning on Friday, the Red Sox are now the small favorite (you think?). Now no one puts any more emphasis on starting pitchers than I do but the linemakers really gave too much credit to Roy Halladay and not nearly enough credit to Paul Byrd, while totally IGNORING Boston's home dominance. Halladay is a terrific pitcher but let's look at his '08 record. He's 13-9 with a 2.76 ERA, with the Blue Jays going a very mediocre 13-11 in his starts. Regulars know I love to compare how teams do with that game's starting pitcher on the mound against how they do when he's not on the mound. Doing the math finds the Blue Jays are hardly any better with Halladay on the hill, as they are 13-11 (.542) with him and 49-49 (.500) without him. That's clearly "no big deal!" He's never had much success vs Boston, posting a 10-11 (4.66 ERA) lifetime mark in 31 starts (Jays are 13-18) against the Red Sox. These last two years, he's made seven starts vs Boston (two TY and five in '07), going 2-4 with a 4.86 ERA (team is 2-5). As for Paul Byrd, he was coming off a superb 2007 season in which he went 15-8 but he a had a terrible first half for the Indians (3-10). However, how can one ignore his 4-0 mark since the break, where he's allowed just four ERs over 29 innings (1.24 ERA)? His most recent start for the Indians (before his fortunate trade to Boston) came against these Blue Jays in Toronto and he was matched up against Halladay. Pitching for a Cleveland team which is just 23-38 on the road as we speak, Byrd out-dueled Halladay in a 4-2 win. So here, pitching in front of a Boston team which is not only 43-16 at home but 32-12 in Fenway vs right-handed starters (averaging 5.9 RPG), why SHOULDN'T he best Toronto and Halladay again? And why SHOULDN'T the price on him be steeper? It should be and that's why my Oddsmaker's Error is on the Bos Red Sox
