STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, MAY 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** Saturday, 5/3/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #5
Three of the teams which made the playoffs last season in the American League aren't anywhere near doing well for their Major League Baseball betting fans. Check out the teams in the AL that are burning the biggest holes in your pockets.
•Cleveland Indians (12-17, -$683) – The Tribe are coming off of a god awful West Coast swing in which their offense was nowhere to be found. They scored just 13 runs over the course of the six games, which isn't going to cut it. The starting pitching staff just hasn't been all that efficient either. Things need to pick up in Cleveland in a hurry, because this division isn't going to end up waiting around for the Indians to get back in the swing of things. There are just far too many good teams to deal with.
•Tampa Bay Rays (14-16, -$661) – The Rays swept a day/night doubleheader at Fenway Park on Thursday to get them out of a bit of a slump. The difference between this season and previous campaigns for Tampa Bay is that this year's team just doesn't seem to have enough pitching to win. Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Alex Cobb are all on the DL at the moment for long periods of time, and Manager Joe Maddon is stuck having to cut and paste a starting staff together. It's not working all that well right now, though the men who were thrown into the mix on Thursday got the job done against the Red Sox.
•Boston Red Sox (14-16, -$646) – We're not really all that sure just how good these Red Sox are this year. They've got a great starting pitching staff, but they aren't all that fantastic in the batting lineup this year without Jacoby Ellsbury in the fold. The team is batting just .243 and is averaging just a tick over four runs per game, but that isn't going to be good enough at this level. The Sox are finding themselves in a lot of trouble on the MLB betting lines because they are constantly big time favorites. They're just 6-10 so far on the campaign at home. About the only good news is that no one has asserted itself as the big dog in the AL East, and until that happens, there are only three games separating first and last place. There's plenty of time for Boston to build an identity.
Betting Notes - Saturday
•Hot Pitchers
-- This is Arrieta's first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts LY.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. Roark is 1-0, 1.23 in his last three.
-- Teheran is 1-0, 0.38 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 2-0, 0.35 in his last three starts. Gallardo is 2-0, 1.91 in six starts this season.
-- Morales is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts. Mejia is 3-0, 3.49 in five starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Tanaka is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 3-0, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 0.76 in his last five starts LY. Keuchel is 2-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Carroll allowed two runs in 7.1 IP in winning his MLB debut.
-- Richards is 2-0, 2.53 in five starts this season. Harrison allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.
-- Dickey is 1-0, 2.92 in his last couple starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Wacha is 0-2, 4.15 in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 1-2, 5.24 in four starts this season. Turner allowed five runs in six IP in his first '14 start, before going on DL.
-- Vogelsong is 0-1, 8.44 in his two road starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-5, 5.31 in his first six starts.
-- Rays lost last four Odorizzi starts (0-2, 9.00).
-- Lester is 0-2, 9.26 in his last couple starts. Oakland is 0-4 when Milone starts (0-2, 5.70).
-- Correia is 0-3, 9.43 in his last four starts.
-- Masterson is 0-1, 7.31 in his last five starts.
-- Smyly is 0-1, 6.00 in two starts this season. Duffy is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.31 in his last four starts LY.
-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.14 in his last five starts.
•Totals
-- Nine of last twelve games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Nine of twelve Washington road games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Dodger games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in San Diego's last seven home games.
-- Four of last six Pittsburgh home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last twelve New York home games stayed under; 12 of last 15 Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Five of last six White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last nine games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Five of Kansas City's last six home games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Baltimore road games went over.
-- Five of last six Seattle games went over the total.
-- Nine of twelve Angel home games went over total.
•Hot Teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Nationals won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won 12 of its 15 road games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their 15 road games. Miami won six of its last seven home games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
-- Rockies won seven of its last nine home games.
-- Diamondbacks won its last three road games.
-- Athletics won 12 of their 17 road games.
-- Tigers won five of its last six games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
-- Mariners won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won four of their last five home games.
•Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Phillies lost four of their last five home games.
-- Reds lost five of its last seven games.
-- Braves lost last four games, but won eight of last ten at home.
-- Mets lost last two nights, giving up 17 runs.
-- Padres lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Pirates lost ten of their last 13 games. Toronto lost seven of its last nine.
-- Yankees lost its last three games, outscored 20-10.
-- Indians lost six of last seven games, but won five of last six at home. Chicago is 5-9 on the road.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last eight home games.
-- Twins lost five of its last six games.
-- Royals are 5-7 in its last twelve games.
-- Astros lost eleven of their last fifteen home games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
•Umpires Trends
-- StL-Chi-- Three of four Vanover games went over total.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Last four Gonzalez games went over total.
-- SF-Atl-- Three of four Fagan games stayed under total.
-- LA-Mia-- All five Iassogna games went over the total.
-- Mil-Cin-- Road team won all six Dimuro games; under is 3-1-1 in last five.
-- NY-Col-- Favorites won five of last six Tumpane games.
-- Az-SD-- Under is 15-5-1 in last 21 Wolf games.
-- TB-NY-- All five Eddings games stayed under total.
-- A's-Bos-- Road teams won three of four Reyburn games.
-- Blt-Minn-- Underdogs won three of last five Nelson games.
-- Sea-Hst-- Underdogs won four of six Hoye games.
-- Chi-Cle-- Underdogs won three of four Guccione games.
-- Det-KC-- Three of last four Tichenor games went over.
-- Tex-LA-- All three LBarrett games went over the total.
-- Tor-Pitt-- Underdogs won three of last four Hamari games.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•ATLANTA is 13-1 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 5.6, OPPONENT 2.3.
•CINCINNATI is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 3.0, OPPONENT 2.6.
•NY METS are 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the run line in road games after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8.
•RYAN VOGELSONG is 24-9 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 3.7.
•A.J. BURNETT is 12-1 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BURNETT 2.2, OPPONENT 2.1.
•BRANDON MCCARTHY is 0-11 (-13.7 Units) against the run line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MCCARTHY 2.6, OPPONENT 5.1.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (MILWAUKEE) - poor National League offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games.
(60-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +41.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (45-28 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -147
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 45 (61.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-11, +17.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (144-62, +49.4 units).
___________________________________________
SATURDAY, MAY 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** Saturday, 5/3/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #5
Three of the teams which made the playoffs last season in the American League aren't anywhere near doing well for their Major League Baseball betting fans. Check out the teams in the AL that are burning the biggest holes in your pockets.
•Cleveland Indians (12-17, -$683) – The Tribe are coming off of a god awful West Coast swing in which their offense was nowhere to be found. They scored just 13 runs over the course of the six games, which isn't going to cut it. The starting pitching staff just hasn't been all that efficient either. Things need to pick up in Cleveland in a hurry, because this division isn't going to end up waiting around for the Indians to get back in the swing of things. There are just far too many good teams to deal with.
•Tampa Bay Rays (14-16, -$661) – The Rays swept a day/night doubleheader at Fenway Park on Thursday to get them out of a bit of a slump. The difference between this season and previous campaigns for Tampa Bay is that this year's team just doesn't seem to have enough pitching to win. Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Alex Cobb are all on the DL at the moment for long periods of time, and Manager Joe Maddon is stuck having to cut and paste a starting staff together. It's not working all that well right now, though the men who were thrown into the mix on Thursday got the job done against the Red Sox.
•Boston Red Sox (14-16, -$646) – We're not really all that sure just how good these Red Sox are this year. They've got a great starting pitching staff, but they aren't all that fantastic in the batting lineup this year without Jacoby Ellsbury in the fold. The team is batting just .243 and is averaging just a tick over four runs per game, but that isn't going to be good enough at this level. The Sox are finding themselves in a lot of trouble on the MLB betting lines because they are constantly big time favorites. They're just 6-10 so far on the campaign at home. About the only good news is that no one has asserted itself as the big dog in the AL East, and until that happens, there are only three games separating first and last place. There's plenty of time for Boston to build an identity.
Betting Notes - Saturday
•Hot Pitchers
-- This is Arrieta's first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts LY.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. Roark is 1-0, 1.23 in his last three.
-- Teheran is 1-0, 0.38 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 2-0, 0.35 in his last three starts. Gallardo is 2-0, 1.91 in six starts this season.
-- Morales is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts. Mejia is 3-0, 3.49 in five starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Tanaka is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 3-0, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 0.76 in his last five starts LY. Keuchel is 2-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Carroll allowed two runs in 7.1 IP in winning his MLB debut.
-- Richards is 2-0, 2.53 in five starts this season. Harrison allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.
-- Dickey is 1-0, 2.92 in his last couple starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Wacha is 0-2, 4.15 in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 1-2, 5.24 in four starts this season. Turner allowed five runs in six IP in his first '14 start, before going on DL.
-- Vogelsong is 0-1, 8.44 in his two road starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-5, 5.31 in his first six starts.
-- Rays lost last four Odorizzi starts (0-2, 9.00).
-- Lester is 0-2, 9.26 in his last couple starts. Oakland is 0-4 when Milone starts (0-2, 5.70).
-- Correia is 0-3, 9.43 in his last four starts.
-- Masterson is 0-1, 7.31 in his last five starts.
-- Smyly is 0-1, 6.00 in two starts this season. Duffy is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.31 in his last four starts LY.
-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.14 in his last five starts.
•Totals
-- Nine of last twelve games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Nine of twelve Washington road games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Dodger games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in San Diego's last seven home games.
-- Four of last six Pittsburgh home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last twelve New York home games stayed under; 12 of last 15 Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Five of last six White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last nine games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Five of Kansas City's last six home games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Baltimore road games went over.
-- Five of last six Seattle games went over the total.
-- Nine of twelve Angel home games went over total.
•Hot Teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Nationals won five of their last six games.
-- Brewers won 12 of its 15 road games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their 15 road games. Miami won six of its last seven home games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
-- Rockies won seven of its last nine home games.
-- Diamondbacks won its last three road games.
-- Athletics won 12 of their 17 road games.
-- Tigers won five of its last six games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
-- Mariners won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won four of their last five home games.
•Cold Teams
-- Cardinals lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Phillies lost four of their last five home games.
-- Reds lost five of its last seven games.
-- Braves lost last four games, but won eight of last ten at home.
-- Mets lost last two nights, giving up 17 runs.
-- Padres lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Pirates lost ten of their last 13 games. Toronto lost seven of its last nine.
-- Yankees lost its last three games, outscored 20-10.
-- Indians lost six of last seven games, but won five of last six at home. Chicago is 5-9 on the road.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last eight home games.
-- Twins lost five of its last six games.
-- Royals are 5-7 in its last twelve games.
-- Astros lost eleven of their last fifteen home games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
•Umpires Trends
-- StL-Chi-- Three of four Vanover games went over total.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Last four Gonzalez games went over total.
-- SF-Atl-- Three of four Fagan games stayed under total.
-- LA-Mia-- All five Iassogna games went over the total.
-- Mil-Cin-- Road team won all six Dimuro games; under is 3-1-1 in last five.
-- NY-Col-- Favorites won five of last six Tumpane games.
-- Az-SD-- Under is 15-5-1 in last 21 Wolf games.
-- TB-NY-- All five Eddings games stayed under total.
-- A's-Bos-- Road teams won three of four Reyburn games.
-- Blt-Minn-- Underdogs won three of last five Nelson games.
-- Sea-Hst-- Underdogs won four of six Hoye games.
-- Chi-Cle-- Underdogs won three of four Guccione games.
-- Det-KC-- Three of last four Tichenor games went over.
-- Tex-LA-- All three LBarrett games went over the total.
-- Tor-Pitt-- Underdogs won three of last four Hamari games.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•ATLANTA is 13-1 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 5.6, OPPONENT 2.3.
•CINCINNATI is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 3.0, OPPONENT 2.6.
•NY METS are 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the run line in road games after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 5.1, OPPONENT 2.8.
•RYAN VOGELSONG is 24-9 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was VOGELSONG 4.8, OPPONENT 3.7.
•A.J. BURNETT is 12-1 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BURNETT 2.2, OPPONENT 2.1.
•BRANDON MCCARTHY is 0-11 (-13.7 Units) against the run line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MCCARTHY 2.6, OPPONENT 5.1.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (MILWAUKEE) - poor National League offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games.
(60-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +41.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (45-28 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -147
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 45 (61.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +1.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-11, +17.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (144-62, +49.4 units).
___________________________________________
