Service Plays Saturday 3/18/17

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1:05 PM EST MLB
BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS. NEW YORK YANKEES

PICK: NEW YORK YANKEES (-136)

RISK: 11 UNITS

2:40 PM EST NCAAB
WISCONSIN VS. VILLANOVA

PICK: VILLANOVA -5.5 (-115)

RISK: 11 UNITS

5:15 PM EST NCAAB
NORTHWESTERN VS. GONZAGA

PICK: GONZAGA -11 (-110)

RISK: 11 UNITS

7:10 PM EST NCAAB
MIDDLE TENN ST VS. BUTLER

PICK: MIDDLE TENN ST +3.5 (-105)

RISK: 11 UNITS

7:40 PM EST NCAAB
SAINT MARYS CA VS. ARIZONA

PICK: SAINT MARYS CA +5 (-110)

RISK: 11 UNITS

9:40 PM EST NCAAB
IOWA STATE VS. PURDUE

PICK: IOWA STATE (-110)

RISK: 11 UNITS
 

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Root
pinnacle - wisky
Perfect - Florida
inner circle - st Mary's
no limit - butler
millionaire - northwestern
 

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betting line moves 14- 30 last 44

st marys 5
 
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POINTWISE TOURNAMENT COVERAGE
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Top Rating of 1 -- Low Rating of 6

NCAA:
Rated 2: Arizona
Rated 3: Middle Tennessee State, Notre Dame
Rated 4: Florida, Xavier, Gonzaga
Rated 6: Wisconsin, Iowa State

NIT:
Rated 3: Syracuse (11:00 AM Start)
 
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Dave Essler

CBB 3* Triple MAX-BET

St. Mary's

Analysis: I'll put this out now at what is/was my target # last night, +6. Bovada has it without buying. Southpoint, Sportsbook, and Cantor all have +5.5 to buy the hook. To be honest, I am/was fine with +5 or more - but as always want these out early for clients to take advantage of, either now or those that can/do wait. Sometimes I get the WORST of it by doing this - but my "grading" is less important that trying to to what I get paid to do. First off, CRIS/Bookmaker (sharp, usually release opening number) sent this out at +2.5. They simply had to know that Joe Q (Public) would pour in Arizona money. Either that or they were lazy because KenPom's metrics actually show St. Mary's winning this game and they just moved the line the other way, but clearly not enough. Anyhow, I'll take two possession here -first off, Arizona doesn't have a length advantage here. At least not with the starters, off the bench, yes - but since both these teams play pretty slow (St. Marys' at a snails' pace) they ought not get tired, only fouls should effect players sitting. So, there's that. I've always been scared to back Arizona's youth - and year after year after year they under achieve in the post season and this is 2017's drop off point. They score inside, and to reiterate they aren't bigger. St. Marys scores over the top, so "size doesn't matter" in this case. Aside from having several 40% three point shooters, SMC also has the best player on the court, Jock Landale. (He's an Aussie, so we have some clients that will like this!) At 6' 11" this guy shoots 63% from inside and is a GREAT FT shooter - if he and Randy Bennett keep him out of foul trouble and on the court most of the game - here's the books public disaster of the weekend.
 
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ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS
March 18th

NHL
JEFF - March Record (6-11 -5.81 ) Season Record (66-74-12 -18.01)
Ottawa Senators -107 Montreal Canadiens (7pm)
Vancouver Canucks/Edmonton Oilers​ OVER 5 -135 (930pm)

NBA
PATRICK- March Record (13-10 +3.05) Season Record (82-80 -6.80)
Denver Nuggets +2 Houston Rockets (930pm)
Golden State Warriors -11.5 Milwaukee Bucks (1030pm)
JEFF- March Record (12-8 +4.25) Season Record (70-82 -14.05)
San Antonio Spurs -3.5 Memphis Grizzlies (9pm)

COLLEGE HOOPS
PATRICK - March Record (11-21 -14.15) Season Record (95-97 -19.15)
Butler -3.5 Middle Tennessee State ​(7pm)
JEFF- March Record (18-19 -5.12) Season Record (123-107 +3.02)
Saint Marys CA /Arizona ​UNDER 133 (745pm)

SOCCER
SIMON- March Record (14-17-1 -4.69 ) Season Record (62-73 -13.72)
SATURDAY 3/18
ENGLAND - LEAGUE 1
(OVER 2.5 -116) Swindon Town@ Bradford (11AM)
SCOTLAND - CHAMPIONSHIP
(OVER 3 -131) Dumbarton @ Hibernian (11AM)
​GERMANY - BUNDESLIGA
(OVER 2 -144) Hamburg SV @Eintracht Frankfurt (130PM)
PORTUGAL - 1 LIGA
(OVER 3 -131) CD Nacional @ Sporting Lisbon (215PM)
 

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Looking for Power Sports, he wasn't posted yesterday but someone had him the day before. He is having a nice March.
 
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Gavazzi

Game # 524 4% Florida St. -6.5 ( to -7)

# 526 4% Butler -3.5 (to -4)

# 527 4% Iowa St. -1 or better

# 517 3% Notre Dame +3 or more

# 520 3% Villanova -5.5 (to -6)

# 521 3% Virginia +2 or more

# 530 3% Gonzaga -11 or less

# 532 3% Arizona -5 or less
 

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