Dave Essler
CBB 3* Triple MAX-BET
St. Mary's
Analysis: I'll put this out now at what is/was my target # last night, +6.
Bovada has it without buying. Southpoint, Sportsbook, and Cantor all have +5.5 to buy the hook. To be honest, I am/was fine with +5 or more - but as always want these out early for clients to take advantage of, either now or those that can/do wait. Sometimes I get the WORST of it by doing this - but my "grading" is less important that trying to to what I get paid to do. First off, CRIS/
Bookmaker (sharp, usually release opening number) sent this out at +2.5. They simply had to know that Joe Q (Public) would pour in Arizona money. Either that or they were lazy because KenPom's metrics actually show St. Mary's winning this game and they just moved the line the other way, but clearly not enough. Anyhow, I'll take two possession here -first off, Arizona doesn't have a length advantage here. At least not with the starters, off the bench, yes - but since both these teams play pretty slow (St. Marys' at a snails' pace) they ought not get tired, only fouls should effect players sitting. So, there's that. I've always been scared to back Arizona's youth - and year after year after year they under achieve in the post season and this is 2017's drop off point. They score inside, and to reiterate they aren't bigger. St. Marys scores over the top, so "size doesn't matter" in this case. Aside from having several 40% three point shooters, SMC also has the best player on the court, Jock Landale. (He's an Aussie, so we have some clients that will like this!) At 6' 11" this guy shoots 63% from inside and is a GREAT FT shooter - if he and Randy Bennett keep him out of foul trouble and on the court most of the game - here's the books public disaster of the weekend.