Joe Gavazzi Saturday
Saturday, March 15
NBA
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards 7:05 ET
3%* Brooklyn
We went 2-1 ATS Friday night in the NBA but pulled the wrong rabbit out of the hat with Washington. Today we change gears and look to fade the Wizards using the inverted home/road dichotomy. While the Wiz have been a solid winning team on the road, their fortunes at home have not been as rewarding. Recently, Washington is 9-14 SU, 7-16 ATS on this court. Tonight they may be forced to play without Beal who has been a key contributor from the perimeter for the Wizards. Though the Nets have been playing without Garnett, he has been ably replaced by the Blatche/ Plumlee combo. Since the beginning of the calendar year, Brooklyn has been playing like the team that was projected to win 15 games this year. The Nets have gone 23-9 SU, 22-10 ATS with a current run of 7-1 SU, ATS.
CBKB
(no write-ups)
3% VCU -5
4% Michigan -2
5% Georgia State -7
Tulsa vs La Tech 11:30 AM ET CBS
3% La Tech -3-
Tulsa has been blowing away CUSA opponents with regularity since February 1st when all hands came on deck. The Hurricane is 10-0 SU and is currently on an 11-1 ATS run. That loss, however, came to this La Tech team by a score of 66-61. In spite of that hot streak by Tulsa, we are not about to hop off the money train that has been La Tech for us this week. Thursday night they defeated Charlotte 86-65 as -10 in our Conference USA Game of the Year. Last night, we used the Bulldogs as yet another top play in their 88-70 wipe out of a very good S Miss team. That makes it 6-0 SU for the Bulldogs with the last 5 of those victories by 9 or more points. Must continue to back Tech and their Defensive Dandy status as a defense that allows just 66/40/29 and holds commanding positives in rebounding, TOs and Assist/TO margin. Best boy Appleby missed the majority of the conference season. But as they weave him back into the offense, they continue to get better and better. Another best bet winner with the Bulldogs.
NC State vs Duke 3:30 ET ESPN
3% Duke -9-
Enough is enough! We have seen it happen repeatedly over the years and it has played out like virtual clockwork in our favor a high percentage of the time. Consider the results when South Carolina, following 3 consecutive dog wins, got buried by Tennessee yesterday. Now we have an NC State team who enters on a 4-0 SU/ATS run against Pit, BC and consecutive upsets in this tournament against Miami FL and Syracuse. Now they must face a Duke team who beat them 85-60 in their only appearance of the season. Duke has a bit to prove following a survival win against Clemson last night.
Tennessee vs Florida 1:00 ET ABC
4% Florida -5
The Vols are red hot with Maymon and Stokes on the perimeter and McCrae leading the perimeter. But it’s the defense that is leading the way. In their current 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS streak, Tennessee has won their last 4 games by margins of 38, 28, 27 and 15 points. Most impressive has been a defense that has allowed just 45 PPG in that time frame. Key to this handicap is that those victories all came in the favorite role against lesser opponents Vandy, Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina. Today, they must step up to face the #1 team as an underdog. Look for the fortunes to change drastically for the Vols. Florida has won 24 consecutive games and features a Defensive Dandy. Wilbekin is playing like the best lead guard in the Nation. They are loaded with experienced leadership. In a pair of earlier meetings with the Vols, Florida prevailed by scores of 67-58 and 67-41. Today the #1 Gators show the Vols what real defense is all about.
St Bonaventure vs St Joes 1:30 ET CBSC
3% St Joes -3-
The Bonnies entered this event on an 0-4 SU, 0-5 ATS slide. The Opening Round win against underachieving LaSalle was no surprise. The shocker came on Friday when they upset #1 seed St. Louis. As you can imagine, the fortunes of an underdog in the following game are not rewarding. Such is the case on Saturday when the Bonnies line up against a St Joes team who has already defeated them 83-74 in Olean. True to their toughness, St Joes outlasted a gritty 70-67 on Friday, a nice cover for us. Their goal is to clearly win this A10 title. Halil Kanecivic is the most underrated big man in the league while Roberts does all the dirty work inside. Langston Gallaway is the crunch time senior guard who is complimented to perfection by Frosh Bembry who is playing with the poise of a senior. The coaching of veteran mentor Martelli rounds out the equation for a Hawks team who will battle for the title on Sunday.
Pittsburgh vs Virginia -4 1:00 ET ESPN
4% Pit +4
As expected, these two played a brutal defensive grinder in Virginia’s 48-4 victory. It came down to a buzz beater by Brogdon. The Cavs were good to us with a top play on Friday using their Defensive Dandy status in a 64-51 victory over Bubbalicious Florida State. They return to their strong defensive ways after allowing 75 points to Maryland in the season-ender. That was the first time any team has succeeded 58 points against the Cavs since February 5th. Our preference here is for the Pit Panther who appears to have flipped the switch, using the momentum of the improbable season-ending road win at Clemson to jump start their post season fortunes. Zona had a combined 40 points in rebounds in yesterday’s win vs North Carolina. That makes 80 or more points in 4 of the last 5 games for a Pittsburgh offense that was grinding to a halt in February. Dixson is in his preferred role here at 47-23 ATS as dog to -1. The Panthers 12-17 ATS mark for the season provides plenty of value as pointed out by a CCT semi-final situation that exceeds the 70%.
Georgia vs Kentucky 3:30 ET ABC
5% Kentucky -7
Georgia keeps winning, witness their heart-stopping 75-73 survival vs Ole Miss last night. That makes the run 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS but unless they win this game, and possibly tomorrow, they will not advance to The Dance. The reasons are a weak non-con schedule and a limited number of quality road wins. When these two met at Rupp on January 25th, Kentucky used their interior presence to pound the Bulldogs 79-54. Can’t envision much that has changed fundamentally since that time and with the under-achieving Wild Cats still below .500 ATS for the season, it points out a CCT semi-final situation that has produced over 70% winners. Light it!
LA LaFayette vs Western Kentucky 5:30 ET
4% Western Kentucky +4
A rare situation, where we get a better seeded underdog who has defeated their opponent in each of their seasonal meetings. We also get the situational advantage that sees Western Kentucky enter with a week of rest and off a 73-55 loss to Georgia State. The Hilltoppers have shown a negative return to their backers for the season at 12-16 ATS. But as we have seen in each of the past two seasons, it is now time for 3rd year HC Harper to work his magic. In each of the previous two seasons, Harper has guided the Hilltoppers to the CCT Title and an NCAA appearance. No reason to believe he will not get them to the Finals tomorrow at a value price against a team he has dominated.
Connecticut vs Louisville 6:00 ET ESPN
5% Louisville -7-
2nd year HC Ollie has asked quite a bit from his team in victories at Memphis and last night in a hard-fought 58-56 win against top seeded Cincinnati. Now they must take to the floor to face a Louisville team who is playing as well as anyone in the country. To put that in perspective, the game before U Conn upset Memphis and Cincinnati, the Huskies lost at Louisville 81-48. That is part of a late-season blitz that has seen the defending champion Cards win their last 4 games by margins of 13, 33, 61 and 29. In those 4 contests, they covered the number by a combined 87 points or 22 PPG. To put that in perspective, consider that the average cover-margin in a CBKB game is approximately 8 points. We all know that March is Pitino time. A microcosm of that is Pitino’s record of 77-44 ATS following consecutive spread wins. Much like late last season when Louisville went on a 9-0 ATS run at exactly this time of year, expect the Cards to be peaking at the right time. As such, we elevate them to top play status for today’s card.
Toledo vs Western Michigan 6:30 ET ESPN2
3% Toledo -2-
Western Michigan has been a highly resilient team this season including their miraculous comeback victory 64-60 and an emotionally draining semi-final victory last night against Akron. Note that since standing 11-8 SU at the end of January, the Broncos have gone 9-2 SU covering 7 of their last 9 recent games. Now they must face a Toledo team with whom they split the regular season series. Toledo has been considered the top team in the league since streaking to a 12-1 SU, 6-2 ATS record in pre-con play. It left them over-valued in MAC contests where although going 14-4 SU, the Rockets were just 5-13 ATS. As with several other games today, it sets up a CCT situation in final games that has produced an over 70% winning situation. All the value is with Toledo who has lost only 5 times all season to capture the MAC title and advance to The Dance.
Cal Poly vs Cal Northridge 10:30 PM ET ESPN2
3% Cal Poly -3
This is an improbable match up of #7 seed Cal Poly vs #5 seed Cal Northridge for a ticket to The Big Dance. Cal Poly emerged from a late-season funk that has seen them go 3-10 SU, 2-10 ATS to close the regular season. Once tourney time came, the Mustangs took advantage of RBR (right back revenge) against the UCSB team who had just defeated them 71-55 to close the regular season. Cal Poly used that momentum to spring consecutive upsets last night when they ousted UCSB #1 seed Cal Irvine, 61-58. Those victories, against the two best teams in the league, are more impressive than the unlikely path followed by the Matadors. To close the regular season, Northridge upset Long Beach in their LHG 91-83 for their 5th consecutive cover. The Matadors followed up that victory with an 87-84 victory vs Hawaii Thursday night, then shocked Long Beach again 82-77 on Friday. Those 3 consecutive straight up dog wins beg for a Play Against using a pony team whose victories have been more impressive. One of these teams will advance to the dance. The vote here is for Cal Poly who has convincingly defeated the Matadors by counts of 62-52 and 62-55 in regular season.
UCLA vs Arizona 6:00 ET FS1
3% Arizona -5-
Steve Alford has made quite a splash taking UCLA to the title game in his 1st year in the PAC 12. Alford’s efficient offense is the most fluid in the league. The perimeter is led by the Triple A Trio of Anderson, Adams and Alford, ably supported by LaVine. On the interior, the Wear twins are ably supported by Tony Parker. In this event, the Bruins easily cruise by a red hot Oregon team 82-63 then dismantled Stanford last night 84-59. Tonight, however, they face their toughest test in a matchup against one of the best defensive teams in the Nation. 3rd year HC Miller has made the proper adjustments since the February 1st loss of Ashley. On the interior, Tarzewski is flanked by a pair of frosh forwards in Gordon and Hollis/Jefferson. PG McConnell has played as advertised as the coach on the floor while Johnson performs as the team’s most athletic perimeter player. But it is the defense which makes this team stand out. It has been at its best in the CCT where they have defeated quality teams in Utah 61-39 and Colorado 63-43. Must reduce this rating, however, noting the Achilles heel of 66% foul shooting which could leave the backdoor wide open for the Bruins.
Saturday, March 15
NBA
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards 7:05 ET
3%* Brooklyn
We went 2-1 ATS Friday night in the NBA but pulled the wrong rabbit out of the hat with Washington. Today we change gears and look to fade the Wizards using the inverted home/road dichotomy. While the Wiz have been a solid winning team on the road, their fortunes at home have not been as rewarding. Recently, Washington is 9-14 SU, 7-16 ATS on this court. Tonight they may be forced to play without Beal who has been a key contributor from the perimeter for the Wizards. Though the Nets have been playing without Garnett, he has been ably replaced by the Blatche/ Plumlee combo. Since the beginning of the calendar year, Brooklyn has been playing like the team that was projected to win 15 games this year. The Nets have gone 23-9 SU, 22-10 ATS with a current run of 7-1 SU, ATS.
CBKB
(no write-ups)
3% VCU -5
4% Michigan -2
5% Georgia State -7
Tulsa vs La Tech 11:30 AM ET CBS
3% La Tech -3-
Tulsa has been blowing away CUSA opponents with regularity since February 1st when all hands came on deck. The Hurricane is 10-0 SU and is currently on an 11-1 ATS run. That loss, however, came to this La Tech team by a score of 66-61. In spite of that hot streak by Tulsa, we are not about to hop off the money train that has been La Tech for us this week. Thursday night they defeated Charlotte 86-65 as -10 in our Conference USA Game of the Year. Last night, we used the Bulldogs as yet another top play in their 88-70 wipe out of a very good S Miss team. That makes it 6-0 SU for the Bulldogs with the last 5 of those victories by 9 or more points. Must continue to back Tech and their Defensive Dandy status as a defense that allows just 66/40/29 and holds commanding positives in rebounding, TOs and Assist/TO margin. Best boy Appleby missed the majority of the conference season. But as they weave him back into the offense, they continue to get better and better. Another best bet winner with the Bulldogs.
NC State vs Duke 3:30 ET ESPN
3% Duke -9-
Enough is enough! We have seen it happen repeatedly over the years and it has played out like virtual clockwork in our favor a high percentage of the time. Consider the results when South Carolina, following 3 consecutive dog wins, got buried by Tennessee yesterday. Now we have an NC State team who enters on a 4-0 SU/ATS run against Pit, BC and consecutive upsets in this tournament against Miami FL and Syracuse. Now they must face a Duke team who beat them 85-60 in their only appearance of the season. Duke has a bit to prove following a survival win against Clemson last night.
Tennessee vs Florida 1:00 ET ABC
4% Florida -5
The Vols are red hot with Maymon and Stokes on the perimeter and McCrae leading the perimeter. But it’s the defense that is leading the way. In their current 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS streak, Tennessee has won their last 4 games by margins of 38, 28, 27 and 15 points. Most impressive has been a defense that has allowed just 45 PPG in that time frame. Key to this handicap is that those victories all came in the favorite role against lesser opponents Vandy, Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina. Today, they must step up to face the #1 team as an underdog. Look for the fortunes to change drastically for the Vols. Florida has won 24 consecutive games and features a Defensive Dandy. Wilbekin is playing like the best lead guard in the Nation. They are loaded with experienced leadership. In a pair of earlier meetings with the Vols, Florida prevailed by scores of 67-58 and 67-41. Today the #1 Gators show the Vols what real defense is all about.
St Bonaventure vs St Joes 1:30 ET CBSC
3% St Joes -3-
The Bonnies entered this event on an 0-4 SU, 0-5 ATS slide. The Opening Round win against underachieving LaSalle was no surprise. The shocker came on Friday when they upset #1 seed St. Louis. As you can imagine, the fortunes of an underdog in the following game are not rewarding. Such is the case on Saturday when the Bonnies line up against a St Joes team who has already defeated them 83-74 in Olean. True to their toughness, St Joes outlasted a gritty 70-67 on Friday, a nice cover for us. Their goal is to clearly win this A10 title. Halil Kanecivic is the most underrated big man in the league while Roberts does all the dirty work inside. Langston Gallaway is the crunch time senior guard who is complimented to perfection by Frosh Bembry who is playing with the poise of a senior. The coaching of veteran mentor Martelli rounds out the equation for a Hawks team who will battle for the title on Sunday.
Pittsburgh vs Virginia -4 1:00 ET ESPN
4% Pit +4
As expected, these two played a brutal defensive grinder in Virginia’s 48-4 victory. It came down to a buzz beater by Brogdon. The Cavs were good to us with a top play on Friday using their Defensive Dandy status in a 64-51 victory over Bubbalicious Florida State. They return to their strong defensive ways after allowing 75 points to Maryland in the season-ender. That was the first time any team has succeeded 58 points against the Cavs since February 5th. Our preference here is for the Pit Panther who appears to have flipped the switch, using the momentum of the improbable season-ending road win at Clemson to jump start their post season fortunes. Zona had a combined 40 points in rebounds in yesterday’s win vs North Carolina. That makes 80 or more points in 4 of the last 5 games for a Pittsburgh offense that was grinding to a halt in February. Dixson is in his preferred role here at 47-23 ATS as dog to -1. The Panthers 12-17 ATS mark for the season provides plenty of value as pointed out by a CCT semi-final situation that exceeds the 70%.
Georgia vs Kentucky 3:30 ET ABC
5% Kentucky -7
Georgia keeps winning, witness their heart-stopping 75-73 survival vs Ole Miss last night. That makes the run 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS but unless they win this game, and possibly tomorrow, they will not advance to The Dance. The reasons are a weak non-con schedule and a limited number of quality road wins. When these two met at Rupp on January 25th, Kentucky used their interior presence to pound the Bulldogs 79-54. Can’t envision much that has changed fundamentally since that time and with the under-achieving Wild Cats still below .500 ATS for the season, it points out a CCT semi-final situation that has produced over 70% winners. Light it!
LA LaFayette vs Western Kentucky 5:30 ET
4% Western Kentucky +4
A rare situation, where we get a better seeded underdog who has defeated their opponent in each of their seasonal meetings. We also get the situational advantage that sees Western Kentucky enter with a week of rest and off a 73-55 loss to Georgia State. The Hilltoppers have shown a negative return to their backers for the season at 12-16 ATS. But as we have seen in each of the past two seasons, it is now time for 3rd year HC Harper to work his magic. In each of the previous two seasons, Harper has guided the Hilltoppers to the CCT Title and an NCAA appearance. No reason to believe he will not get them to the Finals tomorrow at a value price against a team he has dominated.
Connecticut vs Louisville 6:00 ET ESPN
5% Louisville -7-
2nd year HC Ollie has asked quite a bit from his team in victories at Memphis and last night in a hard-fought 58-56 win against top seeded Cincinnati. Now they must take to the floor to face a Louisville team who is playing as well as anyone in the country. To put that in perspective, the game before U Conn upset Memphis and Cincinnati, the Huskies lost at Louisville 81-48. That is part of a late-season blitz that has seen the defending champion Cards win their last 4 games by margins of 13, 33, 61 and 29. In those 4 contests, they covered the number by a combined 87 points or 22 PPG. To put that in perspective, consider that the average cover-margin in a CBKB game is approximately 8 points. We all know that March is Pitino time. A microcosm of that is Pitino’s record of 77-44 ATS following consecutive spread wins. Much like late last season when Louisville went on a 9-0 ATS run at exactly this time of year, expect the Cards to be peaking at the right time. As such, we elevate them to top play status for today’s card.
Toledo vs Western Michigan 6:30 ET ESPN2
3% Toledo -2-
Western Michigan has been a highly resilient team this season including their miraculous comeback victory 64-60 and an emotionally draining semi-final victory last night against Akron. Note that since standing 11-8 SU at the end of January, the Broncos have gone 9-2 SU covering 7 of their last 9 recent games. Now they must face a Toledo team with whom they split the regular season series. Toledo has been considered the top team in the league since streaking to a 12-1 SU, 6-2 ATS record in pre-con play. It left them over-valued in MAC contests where although going 14-4 SU, the Rockets were just 5-13 ATS. As with several other games today, it sets up a CCT situation in final games that has produced an over 70% winning situation. All the value is with Toledo who has lost only 5 times all season to capture the MAC title and advance to The Dance.
Cal Poly vs Cal Northridge 10:30 PM ET ESPN2
3% Cal Poly -3
This is an improbable match up of #7 seed Cal Poly vs #5 seed Cal Northridge for a ticket to The Big Dance. Cal Poly emerged from a late-season funk that has seen them go 3-10 SU, 2-10 ATS to close the regular season. Once tourney time came, the Mustangs took advantage of RBR (right back revenge) against the UCSB team who had just defeated them 71-55 to close the regular season. Cal Poly used that momentum to spring consecutive upsets last night when they ousted UCSB #1 seed Cal Irvine, 61-58. Those victories, against the two best teams in the league, are more impressive than the unlikely path followed by the Matadors. To close the regular season, Northridge upset Long Beach in their LHG 91-83 for their 5th consecutive cover. The Matadors followed up that victory with an 87-84 victory vs Hawaii Thursday night, then shocked Long Beach again 82-77 on Friday. Those 3 consecutive straight up dog wins beg for a Play Against using a pony team whose victories have been more impressive. One of these teams will advance to the dance. The vote here is for Cal Poly who has convincingly defeated the Matadors by counts of 62-52 and 62-55 in regular season.
UCLA vs Arizona 6:00 ET FS1
3% Arizona -5-
Steve Alford has made quite a splash taking UCLA to the title game in his 1st year in the PAC 12. Alford’s efficient offense is the most fluid in the league. The perimeter is led by the Triple A Trio of Anderson, Adams and Alford, ably supported by LaVine. On the interior, the Wear twins are ably supported by Tony Parker. In this event, the Bruins easily cruise by a red hot Oregon team 82-63 then dismantled Stanford last night 84-59. Tonight, however, they face their toughest test in a matchup against one of the best defensive teams in the Nation. 3rd year HC Miller has made the proper adjustments since the February 1st loss of Ashley. On the interior, Tarzewski is flanked by a pair of frosh forwards in Gordon and Hollis/Jefferson. PG McConnell has played as advertised as the coach on the floor while Johnson performs as the team’s most athletic perimeter player. But it is the defense which makes this team stand out. It has been at its best in the CCT where they have defeated quality teams in Utah 61-39 and Colorado 63-43. Must reduce this rating, however, noting the Achilles heel of 66% foul shooting which could leave the backdoor wide open for the Bruins.
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