SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, MARCH 13
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, N.J.)
Rhode Island (22-8, 11-15-1 ATS) vs. (17) Temple (27-5, 21-11 ATS)
Rhode Island has cruised into the A-10 semifinals with a pair of first-round blowout wins. On Tuesday, the Rams ripped St. Joe’s 87-76, but failed to cover as a 14-point favorite in a game played in their home gym. They returned to the court Friday and easily dispatched Saint Louis 63-47, cashing as a 3½-point chalk. Rhode Island started the season 19-3, but closed on a 2-5 SU and 2-6 ATS slump prior to posting consecutive victories in the conference tourney.
The Owls, who got a first-round bye after earning a share of the regular-season conference title and the No. 1 seed, blasted St. Bonaventure 69-51 as a 10½-point chalk on Friday to run their SU winning streak to eight in a row and their ATS winning streak to five in a row. Going back further, Temple has won 16 of its last 18, which encompasses a 15-2 Atlantic 10 record. It has also cashed in nine of its last 11.
Temple swept the season series from the Rams and has won the last three meetings in a row (SU and ATS). On Jan. 10, the Owls traveled to Rhode Island and stole a 68-64 overtime victory as a two-point underdog, then a month later in Philadelphia, they scored an easy 78-56 rout as a four-point home chalk. Temple is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings; the favorite has cashed in five of the last six; and the SU winner has covered the number in each of the last 13 series clashes.
Despite getting the money against Saint Louis on Friday, Rhode Island remains on ATS slides of 2-7 overall, 16-33-3 in conference play, 1-6-1 on Saturday and 3-7 against winning teams. Conversely, Temple’s current 5-0 ATS run is aided by additional positive pointspread surges of 39-14-2 in conference, 38-17-1 versus winning teams and 7-1 at neutral sites.
Both teams are 3-0-1 “over” in their last four Saturday affairs. From there, though, the Rams carry “under” trends of 16-7 in league play, 5-0 at neutral sites and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, while Temple is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 4-0 at neutral sites and 3-0-1 against winning teams. Finally, these teams had played three straight “unders” before last month’s meeting at Temple landed right on the 134-point posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE and UNDER
Richmond (25-7, 17-10-1 ATS) vs. (24) Xavier (24-7, 20-10 ATS)
Richmond moved on to the semifinals, but not before surviving a scare against UMass on Friday, holding on for a 77-72 victory but coming up short as a 10-point favorite. The Spiders built a 17-point lead against UMass that twice was whittled down to four points, but they hit key free throws down the stretch to seal their third win in a row and their 11th in their last 12 games. Richmond’s last five games have been decided by 4, 2, 4, 5 and 5 points, with two going into overtime.
The Musketeers had to stage a furious rally to get past Dayton last night, overcoming a 15-point deficit with 10 minutes left to not only steal a 78-73 victory, but cover as a 3½-point favorite. Xavier has won eight in a row (6-2 ATS) and 16 of 18 overall. The Musketeers have also scored five straight wins away from home, including a 12-point non-conference victory at Florida last month.
Richmond’s only loss since Jan. 20 came at Xavier two Sundays ago, and it was a heartbreaking 78-76 overtime setback, though the Spiders covered as a 7½-point underdog. Xavier has won seven of the last eight meetings, going 5-3 ATS.
Despite misfiring as a 10-point chalk against UMass on Friday, the Spiders are still 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games (all in conference). Also, they’re 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at neutral sites this year. Xavier also has been hot at the betting window, currently on ATS runs of 35-16-2 overall, 35-16-1 at neutral courts, 9-3 in conference and 8-3 after a SU win.
Richmond is on a 5-1 “over” uptick, with its last three away from home hurdling the posted price. However, prior to yesterday, the Spiders had stayed under the total in their first three neutral-site games this season. The Musketeers cleared the total against Dayton on Friday, but they’ve still stayed “under” in 10 of their last 12 at neutral venues.
Finally, these teams topped the total on Feb. 28 at Xavier, making the “over” 5-2 in the last seven clashes overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Greensboro, N.C.)
Georgia Tech (21-11, 14-10-2 ATS vs. N.C. State (19-14, 16-13-1 ATS)
The Yellow Jackets, seeded seventh in this event, may have just played themselves into the Big Dance by virtue of their 69-64 quarterfinal upset of second-seeded Maryland as a four-point pup Friday. Georgia Tech shot a whopping 55.8 percent from the floor, including 66.7 percent from three-point range (8-for-12), while holding Maryland to 37 percent shooting, including a 4-for-21 effort from long distance (19 percent).
The Jackets finished the regular season on a 1-3 SU and ATS skid, but have since rebounded with a pair of SU and ATS wins in this tournament.
North Carolina State, a lowly 11th seed, is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge after its second upset in as many nights in this tourney, dropping Florida State 58-52 as a 6½-point underdog Friday after stunning Clemson on Thursday. Last night, the Wolfpack forced the Seminoles into a dismal 3-for-18 performance from 3-point range (16.7 percent), while hitting 7 of 15 from long distance (46.7 percent) and 19 of 43 overall (44.2 percent).
Five weeks ago, Georgia Tech notched a 73-71 victory over N.C. State, but the ‘Pack easily covered as a healthy 9½-point road underdog. In fact, N.C. State has cashed in the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 SU), four of the last five and six of the last nine. Also, the underdog is on a 9-1 ATS tear.
The Yellow Jackets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven at neutral sites (4-0 last four) and are further ATS runs of 4-1-1 following a spread-cover and 13-6-1 after a SU win, though they remain in a 3-6-2 overall ATS rut (all in the ACC).
Meanwhile, along with their current 5-1 SU and ATS run (all in ACC play), the Wolfpack are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS on neutral courts this year, allowing an average of just 54.2 ppg while scoring 61.8. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five against teams with a win percentage above .600.
Georgia Tech entered the ACC tourney on a 4-0 “over” surge, but the under has hit the past two days and is 3-1 in the Jackets’ last four neutral-site starts. N.C. State is on “under” streaks of 7-1 overall (all in the ACC, 2-0 last two) and 5-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600. However, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four meetings, and the over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.C. STATE
Miami, Fla. (20-12, 13-9-2 ATS) vs. (4) Duke (27-5, 18-11-2 ATS)
Miami, which ended the regular season on a 1-5 SU dive (3-2-1 ATS), has bagged a pair of mild upsets in the ACC tourney, pounding Wake Forest 83-62 Thursday as a 3½-point pup, then topping Virginia Tech 70-65 Friday, again as a 3½-point ‘dog. The ninth-seeded Hurricanes are a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on neutral courts this year, averaging 77.7 ppg on stout 49 percent shooting, while allowing just 63.3 ppg on 37.2 percent shooting.
Second-seeded Duke has won 10 of its last 11 games (5-4-2 ATS), opening tourney play Friday with a 57-46 victory over Virginia, but never coming close to covering as a 17-point chalk. It was a rare low-scoring effort for the Blue Devils, who average 78.4 ppg (23rd nationally) while allowing just 61.3, and Duke sports the nation’s No. 1 3-point defense, allowing just 27 percent shooting from long distance.
Duke is on an 8-1 SU roll in this rivalry, but has gone just 4-3-2 ATS in that span, pushing as a seven-point road chalk in an 81-74 win on Feb. 17, the only meeting this year. Miami, an underdog in all nine of those contests, is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four clashes.
The Hurricanes are on a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 6-2-2 overall (all in the ACC), 5-0-2 against teams with a win percentage above .600, 4-0 at neutral sites, 7-1 as a neutral-site pup and 14-6-3 on Saturday. The Blue Devils are on ATS upswings of 8-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 at neutral sites and 7-3-2 in the ACC, but they are 1-3-2 ATS in their last five coming off a SU win.
Miami sports a bundle of “over” rolls, including 6-2 overall (all in ACC play), 7-0 against winning teams, 4-0 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU win, 4-0 on neutral floors and 6-1 as a neutral-site pup. The over is also on a 7-0 run for Duke against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high seven straight times. However, the Blue Devils are on “under” surges of 5-1 overall, 6-1 on Saturday, 5-1 at neutral sites and 29-11 in the ACC.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Kansas City, Mo.)
(1) Kansas (31-2, 13-16-1 ATS) vs. (9) Kansas State (26-6, 18-8-1 ATS)
The Jayhawks, looking to lock up a No. 1 seed in the upcoming Big Dance, have rallied to win four straight (3-1 ATS) since getting blown out at Oklahoma State (85-77) as six-point favorite two weeks ago today. Kansas has cruised in the first two games of the Big 12 tournament at the Spring Center, dominating Texas Tech 80-68 but coming up short as a 17½-point favorite on Thursday, then rallying from a three-point halftime deficit in Friday’s quarterfinal and wiping out Texas A&M 79-66, getting the cash as a nine-point chalk.
Kansas State has rebounded since losing its last two regular-season contests, destroying Oklahoma State on Thursday 83-64 as a 4½-point favorite in the opening round of the tourney and then beating Baylor 82-75 in Friday’s quarterfinals, cashing as a two-point favorite. The Wildcats got 26 points from Jacob Pullen and 24 from Denis Clemente to beat a Baylor team that shot 54 percent from the floor.
The Jayhawks are 4-1 SU and ATS against the Wildcats in the last five in this rivalry, including two winners this season. Kansas went to Manhattan, Kan. and scored an 81-79 overtime win back on Jan. 30, coming up just short as a 3½-point favorite, then the Jayhawks crushed K-State on March 3, 82-65 and easily covering as an 8½-point home chalk. Kansas is 18-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings with the Wildcats, all as a favorite.
Kansas is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600, but the pointspread streaks tumble downward from there, including 4-9 overall (all in the Big 12), 2-6 after a straight-up win, 3-5 away from home, 1-5 on Saturday and 3-9 after a SU victory. Kansas State is on a host of positive ATS runs, including 17-6-1 overall, 12-5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 against winning teams at neutral sites, 15-5-1 versus winning teams and 40-19-2 on Saturday.
The Jayhawks are on “under” runs of 6-4 overall (3-1 in the last four), 11-4 at neutral sites, 30-13 after a SU victory and 19-7 following a spread-cover. The Wildcats have topped the total five straight neutral-site games, and the over is also 5-1 in their last six against winning teams and 9-4-1 in their last 14 on Saturday. Finally, when this month’s meeting at Kansas barely stayed low, it stopped a five-game “over” streak in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Illinois (19-13, 13-18 ATS) vs. (5) Ohio State (25-7, 16-16 ATS)
Illinois took a huge step toward enhancing its Big Dance chances when it upset 13th-ranked Wisconsin 58-54 as an eight-point underdog at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Illini took a 29-20 halftime lead and led by as many 13 with less than five minutes to play but barely held on, snapping a three-game SU and ATS losing skid. Illinois is still just 2-5 (3-4 ATS) in its last seven games as it continues to struggle offensively, scoring 60 points or less in five straight games while averaging just 56.6 ppg on 38.1 percent shooting, including 30.1 percent from three-point range.
With his team trailing 68-66 with 2.2 seconds to go, Player-of-the-Year candidate Evan Turner took an inbounds pass, dribbled just past half-court and swished a running 35-foot shot at the buzzer, lifting the Buckeyes to a stunning 69-68 quarterfinal victory over archrival Michigan. Ohio State, coming off a nine-day layoff, fell behind early but took a 10-point halftime lead before stumbling down the stretch and failing to cover as a nine-point chalk. Turner led four teammates in double-digit scoring with 18 points as the Buckeyes won their fifth in a row.
Going back to mid-January, Ohio State has won 14 of 16 games overall, going 14-1 in Big Ten play (9-6 ATS). That includes a pair of wins and spread-covers over the Illini (72-53 as a two-point road chalk on Feb. 14 and 73-57 as a 9½-point home favorite in the regular-season finale on March 2). The Buckeyes are 7-2 in the last nine meetings (6-3 ATS), and the SU winner has covered the spread in nine of the last 10 clashes.
The Illini ended an 0-6 ATS neutral-site slump with yesterday’s upset of Wisconsin, but they’re still in pointspread funks of 1-3 overall, 3-8 on Saturday and 4-10 after a spread-cover. Ohio State has failed to cover in five of its last six on Saturday, but it is still 7-3 ATS in its last 10 at neutral venues, 4-1 ATS in its last four after a non-cover and 4-1 ATS in its last five against winning teams.
Illinois has topped the total in five of six at neutral sites and four of five on Saturday, but it is also on “under” runs of 4-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-1 after a SU win, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 versus winning teams. Also, even though the Buckeyes soared over the total in Friday’s win over Michigan, they’re still on “under” stretches of 6-2 after a victory, 12-4 after a non-cover, 6-2 versus winning teams and 38-16-1 on Saturday. Finally, the under has hit in four of the last five in this rivalry, with both of this year’s battles staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Minnesota (20-12, 16-15 ATS) vs. (6) Purdue (27-4, 12-17-2 ATS)
Minnesota continued its late-season surge on Friday when the Golden Gophers upset 11th-ranked Michigan State 72-67 in overtime, cashing as a four-point pup, in the Big Ten quarterfinals at Conseco Fieldhouse. Minnesota has now won three in a row (SU and ATS) and six of eight overall, cashing in seven of those eight contests. Devoe Joseph led the way for the Gophers Friday with 17 points and six rebounds, though Minnesota shot just 39 percent from the floor.
Purdue used a big second half to rally past Northwestern on Friday, winning 69-61 and pushing as an eight-point chalk. The Boilermakers got 28 points from E’Twaun Moore and 22 points from JaJuan Johnson and held the Wildcats to 37.2 percent shooting to advance to this semifinal matchup. Purdue has won three straight (0-2-1 ATS) and 13 of 14 (5-8-1 ATS), but it hasn’t cashed a ticket since a Feb. 17 victory at Ohio State, going 0-5-1 ATS since.
The Boilermakers are on a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) streak in this rivalry, including a two-game sweep this season, prevailing 79-60 on Jan. 5 as 8½-point home favorites and 59-58 at Minnesota on Feb. 24, coming up short as a three-point road chalk. In this series, the straight-up winner is on a 9-1-1 ATS run coming into today’s contest.
The Golden Gophers are on ATS runs of 7-1 overall (all in the Big Ten), 4-0 against winning teams, 6-2 on Saturday, 4-1 following a victory and 5-1 after a spread-cover. The Boilermakers are in ATS ruts of 3-11-1 as a favorite, 1-6-1 as a favorite away from home, 1-6 on Saturday, 1-3-2 at neutral venues and 0-3-1 versus winning teams.
For Minnesota, the “under” is on streaks of 13-5 against teams with a winning record (7-1 last eight against winning teams) and 42-19 on Saturday, but it has topped the total in its last four overall. Purdue is on “over” streaks of 6-3 away from home, 5-2 as a road favorite, but the Boilers also carry “under” trends of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 7-1 against winning teams and 5-2 after a SU win.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 11 of the last 12 overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(22) Georgetown (23-9, 16-12 ATS) vs. (7) West Virginia (26-6, 13-18 ATS)
Georgetown advanced to the Big East tournament championship game at Madison Square Garden after scoring 43 second-half points Friday en route to an 80-57 rout of Marquette, cashing as a 3½-point favorite. The Hoyas shot 53.6 percent from the floor, led by Greg Monroe’s 23 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists. After losing four of six to close the regular season (SU and ATS), Georgetown has rattled off four straight wins and covers.
West Virginia made it five straight wins overall (2-3 ATS) Friday, holding off red-hot Notre Dame 53-51 but coming up short as a 5½-point chalk. The Mountaineers shot 50 percent from the field and got 24 points and seven boards from Da’Sean Butler while holding the Irish to 34.1 percent shooting. Bob Huggins’ squad has won seven of its last eight games, but is just 2-4 ATS in the last six (failing to cover in both games in this tournament).
In this series, the Mountaineers have won two straight, including an 81-68 home win on March 1, cashing as seven-point favorites. West Virginia is 7-4 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Hoyas.
Georgetown has cashed in five straight neutral-site games, but despite the Hoyas first 4-0 ATS run in more than two seasons, they are still just 10-25-1 ATS in their last 36 games after a spread-cover. The Mountaineers are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site contests (1-4 last five).
The Hoyas are on “under” runs of 6-2 after a straight-up win and 48-23 after a spread-cover. West Virginia has topped the total in four of five after a non-cover, but it is on “under” runs of 12-1 against winning teams, 5-1 after a straight-up victory and 4-1 at neutral venues.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT
(at Las Vegas)
San Diego State (24-8, 16-13 ATS) at UNLV (25-7, 19-11 ATS)
San Diego State advanced to the Mountain West tournament championship game at the Thomas & Mack Center – and likely locked up a Big Dance berth regardless of tonight’s outcome – with a thrilling 72-69 upset victory over No. 8 and top-seeded New Mexico as a 2½-point underdog. The Aztecs, who barely survived a quarterfinal matchup against Colorado State on Thursday (71-70 victory), shot 52 percent from the field, going a blistering 10-for-16 from three-point range. Forward Billy White poured in a game-high 28 points and true freshman Kawhi Leonard added 15 points and 12 rebounds.
After San Diego State dispatched of the top-seeded Lobos, the Rebels took to their home court and gutted out a 70-66 victory over No. 2 seed BYU, cashing as a one-point favorite. Like the Aztecs, UNLV had a sensational shooting night, hitting at 55.6 percent (42.1 percent from three-point range), and they limited high-scoring BYU to 39 percent overall (9-for-25 from beyond the arc). The Rebels, pounded Utah 73-61 but came up just short as a 12½-point chalk in Thursday’s quarterfinal contest, are now 15-3 all-time in Mountain West tournament games played at the Thomas & Mack.
The Aztecs have won four in a row and 10 of 13 (all in the Mountain West), but it has followed up a 6-0 ATS spurt by failing to cover in four of its last six. Meanwhile, UNLV also has won 10 of 13 (all in conference), including the last six in a row (4-2 ATS).
Home court held serve in this rivalry in the regular season, with UNLV prevailing 76-66 as a seven-point favorite on Jan. 13 and the Aztecs getting revenge with their own 10-point win (68-58 as a 3½-point chalk) exactly a month later. San Diego State is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series meetings, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last eight clashes.
San Diego State opened the Mountain West season with consecutive road losses but has since gone 6-2 SU and ATS on the highway in league play (tournament included). Meanwhile, UNLV is just 5-5 ATS in conference home games.
San Diego State has gone over the total in its first two games of this tournament, and the over is 7-3 in its 10 Mountain West road/neutral-site games and 6-1-1 in its last eight against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rebels have stayed under the total in eight of 12 overall (4-3 “under” at home). Lastly, the over is 5-1 the last two days in the Mountain West tournament.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
Washington (23-9, 13-18 ATS) vs. California (23-9, 19-12 ATS)
The Huskies bring a six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) into the Pac-10 championship game inside the Staples Center after crushing Stanford 79-64 on Friday night, cashing as an 8½-point favorite. Washington held the Cardinal to just 30.6 percent shooting and got 19 points and seven boards from Quincy Pondexter and outrebounded Stanford 43-33. In their tournament opener Thursday, the Huskies topped Oregon State 59-52, but came up just short as a nine-point chalk – the team’s only non-cover during its six-game winning streak.
Cal also made it six straight wins (6-0 ATS) on Friday with a come-from-behind 85-72 win over UCLA in the semifinals, easily cashing as a 7½-point chalk. After trailing 39-35, at halftime, the Golden Bears outscored the Bruins 50-33 in the final 20 minutes to get the win. Cal shot a whopping 60 percent from the field and got 24 points and six assists from Jerome Randle and 20 points from Theo Robertson. With the win and cover, Cal improved to 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games (all in conference)
The home team scored blowout wins this season, with the Huskies pounding Cal 84-69 as a 2½-point favorite back on Jan. 16 and then the Bears cruising 93-81 as a 4½-point chalk Feb. 11. Cal is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five series clashes.
Washington has failed to cash in four of six at neutral sites, but it is on ATS runs of 6-0 on Saturday and 4-1 after a SU win. Cal is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite, and the Bears are on additional pointspread surges of 6-0 on Saturday and 4-0 against winning teams. However, they’re still just 2-6 ATS in their last eight at neutral sites.
The Huskies are on “over” runs of 31-14 in Pac-10 action and 23-11 after a straight-up win, while the Bears have topped the total in six of nine overall, 16 of 21 at neutral sites and 37 of 55 in Pac-10 play, but the under is 6-1-1 in Cal’s last eight on Saturday. In this series, the over has cashed in six of the last seven battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Nashville)
Mississippi State (22-10, 14-12-1 ATS) vs. (20) Vanderbilt (24-7, 16-13 ATS)
Mississippi State, the top seed in the SEC West, ended a two-game SU and ATS skid by opening the conference tourney with a 75-69 victory over Florida on Friday as a 1½-point favorite. The Bulldogs are 4-1 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 13 ppg (70.8-57.2), shooting 45.4 ppg while allowing just 37.9 percent shooting.
Vanderbilt, the No. 2 seed in the SEC East, opened tourney play with a 78-66 victory over Georgia on Friday as an eight-point chalk for its fourth win in the last five games (3-2 ATS). The Commodores have narrowly outscored opponents in five neutral-site starts this year, averaging 72.2 ppg on 43.2 percent shooting, while allowing 70.2 ppg on an even 43 percent shooting, going 3-2 SU and ATS in those contests.
Mississippi State has covered in the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU), after a 3-0 ATS run by Vandy. The Rebels are a solid 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
The Bulldogs are on ATS runs of 4-0 on neutral floors and 12-5-1 coming off a spread-cover, but they are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five Saturday starts. The Commodores are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Saturday outings and 1-5 ATS in their last six following a spread-cover, though they carry positive ATS streaks of 10-4 against winning teams, 8-3 against squads with a win percentage above .600 and 12-5 at neutral sites.
The under for Mississippi State is on surges of 7-1-1 at neutral sites and 6-1 on Saturday, but the over has hit in the Bulldogs’ last four against winning teams and is 5-1 in their last six games following a SU win. Likewise, Vanderbilt is on several “over” tears, including 12-3 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1-1 at neutral sites, 7-2 on Saturday, 22-8 in the SEC and 8-3 after a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(15) Tennessee (25-7, 13-15-1 ATS) vs. (2) Kentucky (30-2, 16-14 ATS)
Third-seeded Tennessee has peeled off five consecutive wins (3-2 ATS), all in SEC action, including tourney wins of 59-49 over LSU on Thursday as an 11½-point chalk and 76-65 over Mississippi last night laying 2½ points. The Volunteers were outscored on the road this year by an average of about four ppg (67.6-63.9), but on neutral courts, the Vols are averaging 74 ppg and giving up 60 ppg, going 5-1 SU (3-2-1 ATS).
Kentucky tumbled 74-65 at Tennessee on Feb. 27 as a 2½-point chalk, but has since won three in a row (1-2 ATS), opening the SEC tourney with a 73-67 victory over Alabama, but falling short as a 9½-point favorite. The top-seeded Wildcats have gone 4-0 SU at neutral sites this season (2-2 ATS), averaging 70.8 ppg on 45.8 percent shooting, while holding foes to just 60.5 ppg with a defense that’s allowed just 35.2 percent shooting.
This is the third meeting between these rivals in the past month. Kentucky won 73-62 giving 9½ points at home on Feb. 13 prior to Tennessee’s aforementioned home win and cover. The Vols’ win halted a 5-0 ATS surge by Kentucky in this rivalry (4-1 SU). In addition, the SU winner is 10-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Vols are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 starts as a neutral-court pup and 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 outings following a spread-cover, but they are on ATS rolls of 4-1 on Saturday, 4-1 against winning teams and 22-8-1 catching less than seven points. The Wildcats are in a 2-5-1 ATS rut as a neutral-site chalk, but they’ve gone 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover and 5-1 ATS in their last six Saturday affairs.
Tennessee is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 19-7-1 overall, 4-0-1 at neutral sites, 5-0 on Saturday, 13-3 as a pup, 20-7-1 against teams with a win percentage above .600 and 20-8-1 in conference play. Kentucky is on “under” surges of 6-1 on neutral floors, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 coming off a SU win. Additionally, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
