Craig Davis
Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
75 Dime – NEW MEXICO
NEW MEXICO --- I'm actually glad the San Diego State Aztecs have been pummeling their last few lesser opponents, because it will do two things in my favor tonight. First, it will give them a false sense of security because they haven't really been challenged in quite some time. SD State hasn't trailed in a game since a two-point loss to BYU back on January 23rd. Things have come too easy for them in their recent wins over Air Force and Colorado State, and it's been a while since they've really been challenged. How will they respond if they fall behind by 10 early? What happens if one of their starters actually gets in early foul trouble?
Consider this... they've only been on the road in just a handful of meaningful road games against quality opponents and they've lost all three times. Their most recent was a 10-point loss at UNLV in which they actually took a 6-point lead to the locker room but go outscored by 16 in the second frame. In non-conference play the Aztecs dropped a 71-63 decision at Pacific and earlier in the year they lost 80-58 at St. Mary's. You can point to all the close games (or big wins) this team has had recently, but the bottom line is... when they go on the road in a hostile environment, they struggle.
The second thing San Diego State's recent, success has done is kept the line respectable. In fact, I expect it to maybe go down a half point by tipoff (it's currently sitting at -7 in many places), so you might want to wait until about an hour before tipoff to make this wager. The general public is starting to pound San Diego State right now and I actually had a friend of mine email me tonight (he knows what I do for a living) and he told me to "pound the Aztecs" Saturday. Ha Ha. Little does he know I have occasionally taken some of his "favorite" plays and gone against him, even releasing a few of those to you (all but one was a winner). This line is just high enough for people to think the Aztecs can stay within the number, but low enough for me to give it to you as a very sizable play.
New Mexico is nearly unbeatable at home, having dropped just one decision in 15 tries there this season. Ask anyone who knows anything about college hoops about one of the top 5 toughest venues to play and if they really know what they're talking about, they'll include The Pit every time. Even when the Lobos are a very average basketball team, they always seem to give people fits at home. They have one of the best home records in college basketball over the last ten years, and they seem to always step it up against the "big boys". With San Diego State lurking, just a game behind New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference, this game could mean a lot when it comes to seeding for the Conference Tourney.
Let's also not forget, the Lobos have HUGE revenge on their minds from the whipping they took in San Diego back in early January. In that game, forward Malcolm Thomas had the game of his life, recording 18 points and 15 boards in 30 minutes of work, including 4 crucial offensive rebounds and putbacks. In fact, the whole Aztec crew shot very well for the game (44% from the field/39% from three-point land) and out-rebounded the Lobos 42-33. Interestingly enough, that's the last time the Lobos have been out-rebounded. These two teams are #1 and #2 in rebounding, which is important tonight because New Mexico is undefeated when they win the battle of the boards. Half the battle in rebounding is effort and "want to"... and tonight I believe (in revenge mode) New Mexico wants it more. The Lobos shot a dismal 35% from the field in their first meeting... and this came from a team that normally shoots 44%. It's clear to me New Mexico simply didn't come to play back on January 5th, but tonight is going to be a different story.
The ironic thing about the fact the Lobos only shoot 44% is that they're still winning games. Their shooting percentage is one of the worst in the MWC, yet they're 6-2 in conference play and have won 6 in a row. What happens when they actually start shooting for well? It's not easy to shoot worse than your opponents and continually win, but that's exactly what they've done. They are on the verge of really hitting their stride and I believe it starts tonight. New Mexico is off to its best start since the 1997 season when they began the year 21-3 and HC Steve Alford has now coached this team to three straight 20-win seasons. Their second most recent win, a 4-point decision over BYU, ran their record to 4-0 this season against ranked opponents... the others included Cal, Texas Tech and Texas A&M.
This game might also be a result of San Diego State's poor free throw shooting... one of a few teams that shoots less than 60% from the stripe. In their last meeting with New Mexico, the Aztecs connected on just 19 of 31, and it's amazing in itself that the Aztecs were even able to get to the line that many times. Both teams are athletic, can rebound, and can play a little defense. But tonight, New Mexico wins this big because of home court, free throw shooting, and "want to". Lobos by 13
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Craig Davis Saturday's Lineup
75 Dime – NEW MEXICO
NEW MEXICO --- I'm actually glad the San Diego State Aztecs have been pummeling their last few lesser opponents, because it will do two things in my favor tonight. First, it will give them a false sense of security because they haven't really been challenged in quite some time. SD State hasn't trailed in a game since a two-point loss to BYU back on January 23rd. Things have come too easy for them in their recent wins over Air Force and Colorado State, and it's been a while since they've really been challenged. How will they respond if they fall behind by 10 early? What happens if one of their starters actually gets in early foul trouble?
Consider this... they've only been on the road in just a handful of meaningful road games against quality opponents and they've lost all three times. Their most recent was a 10-point loss at UNLV in which they actually took a 6-point lead to the locker room but go outscored by 16 in the second frame. In non-conference play the Aztecs dropped a 71-63 decision at Pacific and earlier in the year they lost 80-58 at St. Mary's. You can point to all the close games (or big wins) this team has had recently, but the bottom line is... when they go on the road in a hostile environment, they struggle.
The second thing San Diego State's recent, success has done is kept the line respectable. In fact, I expect it to maybe go down a half point by tipoff (it's currently sitting at -7 in many places), so you might want to wait until about an hour before tipoff to make this wager. The general public is starting to pound San Diego State right now and I actually had a friend of mine email me tonight (he knows what I do for a living) and he told me to "pound the Aztecs" Saturday. Ha Ha. Little does he know I have occasionally taken some of his "favorite" plays and gone against him, even releasing a few of those to you (all but one was a winner). This line is just high enough for people to think the Aztecs can stay within the number, but low enough for me to give it to you as a very sizable play.
New Mexico is nearly unbeatable at home, having dropped just one decision in 15 tries there this season. Ask anyone who knows anything about college hoops about one of the top 5 toughest venues to play and if they really know what they're talking about, they'll include The Pit every time. Even when the Lobos are a very average basketball team, they always seem to give people fits at home. They have one of the best home records in college basketball over the last ten years, and they seem to always step it up against the "big boys". With San Diego State lurking, just a game behind New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference, this game could mean a lot when it comes to seeding for the Conference Tourney.
Let's also not forget, the Lobos have HUGE revenge on their minds from the whipping they took in San Diego back in early January. In that game, forward Malcolm Thomas had the game of his life, recording 18 points and 15 boards in 30 minutes of work, including 4 crucial offensive rebounds and putbacks. In fact, the whole Aztec crew shot very well for the game (44% from the field/39% from three-point land) and out-rebounded the Lobos 42-33. Interestingly enough, that's the last time the Lobos have been out-rebounded. These two teams are #1 and #2 in rebounding, which is important tonight because New Mexico is undefeated when they win the battle of the boards. Half the battle in rebounding is effort and "want to"... and tonight I believe (in revenge mode) New Mexico wants it more. The Lobos shot a dismal 35% from the field in their first meeting... and this came from a team that normally shoots 44%. It's clear to me New Mexico simply didn't come to play back on January 5th, but tonight is going to be a different story.
The ironic thing about the fact the Lobos only shoot 44% is that they're still winning games. Their shooting percentage is one of the worst in the MWC, yet they're 6-2 in conference play and have won 6 in a row. What happens when they actually start shooting for well? It's not easy to shoot worse than your opponents and continually win, but that's exactly what they've done. They are on the verge of really hitting their stride and I believe it starts tonight. New Mexico is off to its best start since the 1997 season when they began the year 21-3 and HC Steve Alford has now coached this team to three straight 20-win seasons. Their second most recent win, a 4-point decision over BYU, ran their record to 4-0 this season against ranked opponents... the others included Cal, Texas Tech and Texas A&M.
This game might also be a result of San Diego State's poor free throw shooting... one of a few teams that shoots less than 60% from the stripe. In their last meeting with New Mexico, the Aztecs connected on just 19 of 31, and it's amazing in itself that the Aztecs were even able to get to the line that many times. Both teams are athletic, can rebound, and can play a little defense. But tonight, New Mexico wins this big because of home court, free throw shooting, and "want to". Lobos by 13
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------GL GUYS
Guys, I've been watching for a long while without saying crap...but the one capper who (at least I've noticed) has flown under the radar (as far as capper requests) and seems to hit WAY more than he ever loses on a consistent basis...key word here is consistent....has been King Creole.
I saw he has either a 3* dog today OR 3 dogs, saw the ad quickly and didn't catch exactly what it said. I'm stuck on the job , if anyone has King Creole it would be greatly appreciated.
Also, Root looks to have started today w / a 2-0 ( if Prov & Dayton hold on)
Thanks in advance guys,,, also does anyone have somewhat of an accurate record on Creole?? N
I saw he has either a 3* dog today OR 3 dogs, saw the ad quickly and didn't catch exactly what it said. I'm stuck on the job , if anyone has King Creole it would be greatly appreciated.
Also, Root looks to have started today w / a 2-0 ( if Prov & Dayton hold on)
Thanks in advance guys,,, also does anyone have somewhat of an accurate record on Creole?? N
Jeff Benton
Saturday's Action
30 Dime: VIRGINIA
10 Dime: LOUSIVILLE
10 Dime: UAB
Virginia
Virginia is playing rock-solid basketball right now, ripping off 10 wins in its last 12 games, including back-to-back blowout wins this week over ACC rivals North Carolina (75-60 on the road) and North Carolina State (59-47 at home). The Cavaliers are also on a 7-3 ATS roll.
True, one of Virginia’s last two losses came at Wake Forest two Saturdays ago, a 69-57 setback as a 5½-point road underdog. It was the Cavaliers’ worst loss of the conference season and only the second time all year they were beaten by more than five points. But what really cost Virginia that day was a slow start, as Wake took a 34-15 lead into the locker room at halftime (over the final 12 minutes of play, the Cavaliers outscored the Demon Deacons 42-35).
Virginia was also uncharacteristically shaky at the free-throw line that day at Wake Forest, missing half of 16 attempts; for the season, the team ranks 16th nationally in free-throw shooting at 74.4 percent, including 75.5 percent at home. Compare that to the Demon Deacons, who make just 66.1 percent of their foul shots, including 64 percent on the road. And here’s a little nugget for you: Visitors to Charlottesville make just 59.7 percent of their free throws, making John Paul Jones Arena the second toughest free-throw shooting venue in the nation!
Now, I do admit that Virginia is a size disadvantage in this game, and that hurt the Cavs in their loss at Wake Forest (the Deacons had a 42-26 rebounding edge). But Virginia’s quickness at the guard position can give teams fits, and Wake Forest knows it as it committed 24 turnovers in its win over the Cavaliers two weeks ago.
One more point to make: This is actually a quadruple-revenge situation for Virginia, as it has lost four straight to Wake Forest (0-4 ATS). However, three of those games were played in Winston-Salem. In fact, the home team has won 14 of the last 16 in this rivalry (12-4 ATS) going back to 2000-2001. Also, the favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings.
Bottom line, here: Virginia – which is on ATS rolls of 7-3 overall, 7-3 at home and 5-2 in ACC play – is playing with a ton of confidence right now. And unlike two weeks ago, the Cavaliers will not get off to a slow start, not in front of their home crowd. Throw in those free-throw numbers mentioned above, and the Cavs are a solid play here at a very cheap price.
Louisville
After losing four of five contests to close out January, including three in brutal late-game fashion, the Cardinals got their mojo back in a big way Monday, pounding UConn 82-69 as a 6½-point home favorite. Now they welcome Rutgers to Freedom Hall, and even though the Scarlet Knights have won two in a row, don’t kid yourself – this is still one BAD basketball team. Take note:
Prior to upsetting Notre Dame (74-73) and St. John’s (84-72) at home, Rutgers had lost nine in a row, including its first eight Big East games. Not only did they lose those eight Big East contests, they didn’t cash a single ticket (0-8 ATS). Six of the losses (to Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse and West Virginia – five of the best teams in the rugged Big East – and Providence) were massive double-digit blowouts. Put it another way, Rutgers has lost all six of its true road games by margins of 14, 34, 13, 9, 25 and 23 points. Five of those were conference road losses, and again, not a single spread-cover.
Back to Louisville: While it has lost five of its last nine, you have to give this squad a bit of a pass. Four of the five losses were to ranked teams (Kentucky, Villanova, Pitt and West Virginia), and not only were all of them single-digit defeats, but two were three-point road losses (at West Virginia and at Seton Hall) and another was an overtime loss at Pittsburgh (82-77). And if you take away an eight-point home loss to Villanova (which might be the best team in the country), the Cardinals are 4-0 in conference home games (including that rout of UConn this week).
Finally, to say this has been a one-sided rivalry would be an understatement, as these teams have met three times the last two years, with Louisville prevailing in all three games by scores of 64-49 (on the road), 87-50 (at home) and 78-59 (on the road), going 3-0 ATS. Throw in these pointspread numbers – Rutgers 3-13 ATS in its last 16 Big East games; Louisville is 44-17-2 ATS in its last 63 Big East games – and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the lumber and watch the Cardinals, who need big wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume, destroy a Scarlet Knights squad that gives up 84 ppg on 50 percent shooting on the road!
UAB
Yep, I’m willing to give the Blazers another shot after that brutal loss (and even more brutal non-cover) they suffered at Memphis on Wednesday. In that game – and I had a 20 Dime play on UAB – the Blazers played Memphis even-up for 36 of 40 minutes, with the game tied at the under-four-minute mark. Then things totally came unraveled and UAB lost 85-75 as a 7½-point underdog. If that wasn’t bad enough, the defeat came on the heels of a 74-65 overtime home loss to UTEP.
Today, I fully expect UAB to play like the team that, prior to this recent two-game hiccup, rattled off seven straight wins – including six in a row in Conference USA, three of which came on the road. I fully expect it for two reasons 1) The Blazers (still 18-4 on the season) have a ton of talent and their players are going to be focused and motivated coming off their first two-game skid of the season), and 2) Rice is bloody awful!
The Owls are 7-14 on the season, including 1-for-8 in Conference USA. The only league win came against East Carolina, which is 7-15 overall and, like Rice, 1-7 in conference. Here’s a sampling of some of the Owls’ performances in Conference USA: 83-66 home loss to Houston; 77-58 loss at Central Florida; 72-58 loss at Tulane; 80-68 home loss to Memphis and 73-65 home loss to SMU.
The Blazers have won four straight meetings in this rivalry (one each of the last four years), including two wins at Rice. Last year when these teams met up in Birmingham, UAB rolled 78-40 as an 18-point home favorite. I smell a similar result here, as the Blazers are way overdue for a blowout victory, and they’ll get it against a massively inferior opponent.
Saturday's Action
30 Dime: VIRGINIA
10 Dime: LOUSIVILLE
10 Dime: UAB
Virginia
Virginia is playing rock-solid basketball right now, ripping off 10 wins in its last 12 games, including back-to-back blowout wins this week over ACC rivals North Carolina (75-60 on the road) and North Carolina State (59-47 at home). The Cavaliers are also on a 7-3 ATS roll.
True, one of Virginia’s last two losses came at Wake Forest two Saturdays ago, a 69-57 setback as a 5½-point road underdog. It was the Cavaliers’ worst loss of the conference season and only the second time all year they were beaten by more than five points. But what really cost Virginia that day was a slow start, as Wake took a 34-15 lead into the locker room at halftime (over the final 12 minutes of play, the Cavaliers outscored the Demon Deacons 42-35).
Virginia was also uncharacteristically shaky at the free-throw line that day at Wake Forest, missing half of 16 attempts; for the season, the team ranks 16th nationally in free-throw shooting at 74.4 percent, including 75.5 percent at home. Compare that to the Demon Deacons, who make just 66.1 percent of their foul shots, including 64 percent on the road. And here’s a little nugget for you: Visitors to Charlottesville make just 59.7 percent of their free throws, making John Paul Jones Arena the second toughest free-throw shooting venue in the nation!
Now, I do admit that Virginia is a size disadvantage in this game, and that hurt the Cavs in their loss at Wake Forest (the Deacons had a 42-26 rebounding edge). But Virginia’s quickness at the guard position can give teams fits, and Wake Forest knows it as it committed 24 turnovers in its win over the Cavaliers two weeks ago.
One more point to make: This is actually a quadruple-revenge situation for Virginia, as it has lost four straight to Wake Forest (0-4 ATS). However, three of those games were played in Winston-Salem. In fact, the home team has won 14 of the last 16 in this rivalry (12-4 ATS) going back to 2000-2001. Also, the favorite has covered in four of the last five meetings.
Bottom line, here: Virginia – which is on ATS rolls of 7-3 overall, 7-3 at home and 5-2 in ACC play – is playing with a ton of confidence right now. And unlike two weeks ago, the Cavaliers will not get off to a slow start, not in front of their home crowd. Throw in those free-throw numbers mentioned above, and the Cavs are a solid play here at a very cheap price.
Louisville
After losing four of five contests to close out January, including three in brutal late-game fashion, the Cardinals got their mojo back in a big way Monday, pounding UConn 82-69 as a 6½-point home favorite. Now they welcome Rutgers to Freedom Hall, and even though the Scarlet Knights have won two in a row, don’t kid yourself – this is still one BAD basketball team. Take note:
Prior to upsetting Notre Dame (74-73) and St. John’s (84-72) at home, Rutgers had lost nine in a row, including its first eight Big East games. Not only did they lose those eight Big East contests, they didn’t cash a single ticket (0-8 ATS). Six of the losses (to Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse and West Virginia – five of the best teams in the rugged Big East – and Providence) were massive double-digit blowouts. Put it another way, Rutgers has lost all six of its true road games by margins of 14, 34, 13, 9, 25 and 23 points. Five of those were conference road losses, and again, not a single spread-cover.
Back to Louisville: While it has lost five of its last nine, you have to give this squad a bit of a pass. Four of the five losses were to ranked teams (Kentucky, Villanova, Pitt and West Virginia), and not only were all of them single-digit defeats, but two were three-point road losses (at West Virginia and at Seton Hall) and another was an overtime loss at Pittsburgh (82-77). And if you take away an eight-point home loss to Villanova (which might be the best team in the country), the Cardinals are 4-0 in conference home games (including that rout of UConn this week).
Finally, to say this has been a one-sided rivalry would be an understatement, as these teams have met three times the last two years, with Louisville prevailing in all three games by scores of 64-49 (on the road), 87-50 (at home) and 78-59 (on the road), going 3-0 ATS. Throw in these pointspread numbers – Rutgers 3-13 ATS in its last 16 Big East games; Louisville is 44-17-2 ATS in its last 63 Big East games – and this one’s a no-brainer. Lay the lumber and watch the Cardinals, who need big wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume, destroy a Scarlet Knights squad that gives up 84 ppg on 50 percent shooting on the road!
UAB
Yep, I’m willing to give the Blazers another shot after that brutal loss (and even more brutal non-cover) they suffered at Memphis on Wednesday. In that game – and I had a 20 Dime play on UAB – the Blazers played Memphis even-up for 36 of 40 minutes, with the game tied at the under-four-minute mark. Then things totally came unraveled and UAB lost 85-75 as a 7½-point underdog. If that wasn’t bad enough, the defeat came on the heels of a 74-65 overtime home loss to UTEP.
Today, I fully expect UAB to play like the team that, prior to this recent two-game hiccup, rattled off seven straight wins – including six in a row in Conference USA, three of which came on the road. I fully expect it for two reasons 1) The Blazers (still 18-4 on the season) have a ton of talent and their players are going to be focused and motivated coming off their first two-game skid of the season), and 2) Rice is bloody awful!
The Owls are 7-14 on the season, including 1-for-8 in Conference USA. The only league win came against East Carolina, which is 7-15 overall and, like Rice, 1-7 in conference. Here’s a sampling of some of the Owls’ performances in Conference USA: 83-66 home loss to Houston; 77-58 loss at Central Florida; 72-58 loss at Tulane; 80-68 home loss to Memphis and 73-65 home loss to SMU.
The Blazers have won four straight meetings in this rivalry (one each of the last four years), including two wins at Rice. Last year when these teams met up in Birmingham, UAB rolled 78-40 as an 18-point home favorite. I smell a similar result here, as the Blazers are way overdue for a blowout victory, and they’ll get it against a massively inferior opponent.
