Dr. Bob
Opinion - CHARLOTTE (-6) over Texas El Paso
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 628
Charlotte has failed to cover their last 3 games but it’s still amazing that the 49ers could be 16-10 ATS this season with their opponents making 41% of their 3-point shots. That percentage is very likely to regress towards the mean some so Charlotte is actually better than their scores indicate. My ratings favor the 49ers by 7 ½ points and I get 7 points using conference games only for each team without adjusting for the 3-point variance. I’ll lean with Charlotte at -6 or less and I’d take Charlotte in a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.
Opinion – BYU (-2 ½) over Gonzaga
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 674
BYU won at Gonzaga 69-68 despite making only 3 of 17 3-point shots (38% for the season) and I expect the Cougars to sweep the season series against a Gonzaga squad that has only 1 win all season against a team rated as highly as BYU (a 3 point win over U Conn in November). The Zags are 0-7 straight up against other teams rated in my top-60, including that home loss to BYU, while the Cougars have a win over conference leading St. Mary’s in addition to the win at Gonzaga. These teams are actually pretty even and my ratings favor BYU by 3 points, but the Cougars are tough at home and they apply to a 74-23-1 ATS last home game situation. I’ll lean with BYU at -3 or less based on that angle.
*Baylor (-9) over TCU
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 649
TCU has had a very weak home court for as long as my database goes back (to 1990). The Horned Frogs are just 39% ATS in conference home games over those 26 years, including 17-40 ATS in the last 7 seasons. The line on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Baylor by 9 points, but TCU applies to a 50-118-2 ATS home underdog situation and the Bears dominated the first meeting 82-54 despite TCU shooting the ball from the outside better than expected (41% 3-pointers). I’ll take Baylor in a 1-Star Best Bet at -9 or less.
Opinion – Golden State (-3) over OKLAHOMA CITY
05:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 511
My ratings favor Golden State by 4 ½ points and that doesn’t take into account that the Warriors up their level of play against better teams. Two of Golden State’s 5 losses were without either Steph Curry or Draymond Green and the other 3 losses were to mediocre teams teams Portland, Detroit and Milwaukee. Golden State is 15-0 against the top 10 rated teams in the NBA and beat the Thunder by 8 points a couple of weeks ago despite one of their worst long range shooting nights of the season (7 for 26 from 3-point range, 26.9%). I expect the Warriors to answer the bell again with another good performance against a good opponent.
Opinion - CHARLOTTE (-6) over Texas El Paso
04:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 628
Charlotte has failed to cover their last 3 games but it’s still amazing that the 49ers could be 16-10 ATS this season with their opponents making 41% of their 3-point shots. That percentage is very likely to regress towards the mean some so Charlotte is actually better than their scores indicate. My ratings favor the 49ers by 7 ½ points and I get 7 points using conference games only for each team without adjusting for the 3-point variance. I’ll lean with Charlotte at -6 or less and I’d take Charlotte in a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.
Opinion – BYU (-2 ½) over Gonzaga
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 674
BYU won at Gonzaga 69-68 despite making only 3 of 17 3-point shots (38% for the season) and I expect the Cougars to sweep the season series against a Gonzaga squad that has only 1 win all season against a team rated as highly as BYU (a 3 point win over U Conn in November). The Zags are 0-7 straight up against other teams rated in my top-60, including that home loss to BYU, while the Cougars have a win over conference leading St. Mary’s in addition to the win at Gonzaga. These teams are actually pretty even and my ratings favor BYU by 3 points, but the Cougars are tough at home and they apply to a 74-23-1 ATS last home game situation. I’ll lean with BYU at -3 or less based on that angle.
*Baylor (-9) over TCU
05:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 649
TCU has had a very weak home court for as long as my database goes back (to 1990). The Horned Frogs are just 39% ATS in conference home games over those 26 years, including 17-40 ATS in the last 7 seasons. The line on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Baylor by 9 points, but TCU applies to a 50-118-2 ATS home underdog situation and the Bears dominated the first meeting 82-54 despite TCU shooting the ball from the outside better than expected (41% 3-pointers). I’ll take Baylor in a 1-Star Best Bet at -9 or less.
Opinion – Golden State (-3) over OKLAHOMA CITY
05:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 511
My ratings favor Golden State by 4 ½ points and that doesn’t take into account that the Warriors up their level of play against better teams. Two of Golden State’s 5 losses were without either Steph Curry or Draymond Green and the other 3 losses were to mediocre teams teams Portland, Detroit and Milwaukee. Golden State is 15-0 against the top 10 rated teams in the NBA and beat the Thunder by 8 points a couple of weeks ago despite one of their worst long range shooting nights of the season (7 for 26 from 3-point range, 26.9%). I expect the Warriors to answer the bell again with another good performance against a good opponent.
