Sportswagers
Kansas State @ BAYLOR
#529 Kansas State +9 -106 over BAYLOR
1:00 PM EST. Baylor is ranked #20 in the country. The Bears have some seriously impressive wins over some notable teams that include an 18-point victory over West Virginia, a 23-point victory over Texas and an 11-point victory over Oklahoma. The Bears have just five games left in the regular season and they have more important fish to fry than these Wildcats. After this game, Baylor plays two important against #14 Iowa State and #23 West Virginia. The Bears will subsequently close out the season against Texas and Texas Tech before the Big-12 tournament. The only thing the Bears can do is improve their seeding in both the Big-12 tournament and the March Madness. They have no shot at catching the top three teams in the conference and we’re not even convinced that they’re that much better than K-State. The Bears aren’t in the best form right now either. They had lost two in a row before defeating Texas Tech (2-12 in the conference) by just five points in their last game. The Bears are 19-7 overall but just 7-6 in the Big-12 while the underrated Wildcats are 12-13 overall and 6-8 in the conference.
K-State is without question the best 12-13 team in America. They played a very tough out-of-conference schedule that included a 9-point win over Purdue and a 4-point loss to #7 Arizona. They also played Pitt, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Georgia. The Wildcats have some great wins and disturbing losses. They’re probably not going to the Dance but if they can run the table in its last four games, they must be considered due to their notable wins and strong strength of schedule. K-State has defeated three ranked teams and has several close losses against other ranked teams. They defeated Baylor once this year already and they’re very capable of doing so again. K-State’s slim tournament hopes ride on this game. We’ve seen this dangerous team come up big in desperation games before and it would come as no surprise if they did so again. They have an absolute stud in guard Marcus Foster and they’ve proven many times that they can compete with anyone in this conference. Giving a team like K-State this much weight is not in our toolbox, especially when in a good spot like this one. Baylor is not a desperate team at all. Take the points.
Our Pick
#529 Kansas State +9 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)
Miami @ LOUISVILLE
Miami +8½ -106 over LOUISVILLE
2:00 PM EST. We faded the Cardinals against Syracuse on Wednesday and we’re not ready to jump off that fade train just yet. Louisville was a 3½-point choice over the Orange and lost by 10. You might read that Louisville was hampered badly in that game by the suspension of Chris Jones but we’re not buying that argument. Jones does return for this game and he absolutely, 100% makes Louisville a better team but not 8½-points better than the Hurricanes. We said it before and it’s worth repeating that Louisville Coach, Rick Pitino is a master at working the “build your résumé” game. The Cardinals built up a 13-1 non-conference record before opening ACC play against Clemson and Wake. Suddenly, the Cardinals are 2-0 in the conference and 15-1 overall but other than an OT win over North Carolina, the Cardinals do not have another impressive win. Pitino has worked the system to get his team ranked #12 in the nation but in no way are the Cardinals the 12th best team. Aside from that fortunate win over UNC, the Cardinals have lost to every other ranked team they have played this year. They’re a bad shooting and rebounding team and you’re going to pay a premium to wager on them here because of their ranking, reputation and pedigree. Louisville has also dropped four of its last five games with only win over that span occurring against Clemson.
Miami is capable of winning this game outright. The ‘Canes have a double OT loss to #2 Virginia this year, a 16-point win over Duke, a 5-point loss at Notre Dame and wins over both N.C. State and Syracuse among others. Incidentally, that win over the Orange was at the Carrier Dome, the same place the Cardinals lost by 10 points at this past Wednesday. Miami hosted the Cardinals back on February 3rd and lost by eight. A lot of folks are going to see that and think if the Cardinals can win at Miami by eight, they can sure beat them again by a point more in their own barn. Unfortunately, it isn’t that easy. The ‘Canes had a bad night and were in a mini-funk at the time they faced Louisville. Now this bubble team is coming off back-to-back victories to get back their confidence and a bit more swagger back. Those two wins were against the two ACC bottom feeders but the last one against Va Tech was by 24 points. Miami is also much more desperate this time around than they were the first time against Louisville. This time however, it’s the Cardinals that are reeling and in poor form and we trust the Hurricanes will take advantage. Possible upset.
Our Pick
Miami +8½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)
NC Wilmington @ TOWSON
#545 NC Wilmington -106 over TOWSON
2:00 PM EST. If you dig deep enough into a menu as big as today’s college card you will very often find a game that is under the radar and we trust me found one here in the Colonial Conference. The Towson Tigers are 5-10 in the conference and 12-16 overall and that’s after playing one of the easiest schedules in the nation, ranking 292 out of 351 teams. At home, the Tigers have four wins in 11 tries. Ranking 292nd in strength of schedule, Towson ranks 340th in assists per game and 284th in FG %. The Tigers five conference victories have come against College of Charleston (twice) Elon (twice) and Hofstra. College of Charleston and Elon are the two last place teams in the Colonial with a combined record in the conference of 6-24.
NC Wilmington has a horrible past. Prior to this year they had lost 20 games or more in three straight seasons. The Seahawks are 42-82 over their past four seasons. Playing under the radar this year because of its brutal recent past, UNC Wilmington is 10-5 in the conference and has a chance to win the conference crown. They fired Buzz Peterson after last year and replaced him with former Louisville assistant coach Kevin Keatts. Keatts knows a thing or two about winning and getting the best out of his players. The Seahawks have five players (maybe even six) that can go off for double digits at any time. Keatts has these guys believing in themselves, playing hard and in contention to win the division. The Seahawks are tied with three other teams atop the Colonial. One of those teams, Northeastern, has lost twice to these Seahawks. UNC Wilmington has played a tougher schedule than Towson as well, ranking 75 positions higher. Now they have a chance to do what didn’t seem possible before the season started and that is win the Colonial outright and earn an automatic bid into the Dance. The Seahawks are coming off a disturbing, 11-point loss at Delaware. However, they are still 6-9 on the road with two of those road defeats occurring at Minnesota and Louisville. This is now the Seahawks bounce back game after that loss at Delaware on Thursday.
Our Pick
#545 NC Wilmington -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)