StatSystems Sports CFB Report, Saturday 12/18/10
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/18
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*** GOING BOWLING! ***
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Northern Illinois will try to win a school-record 11th game of the season when it meets Fresno State on the blue turf in Boise, ID without its head coach. Jerry Kill led NIU to a 10-3 record and a Humanitarian Bowl bid, but he accepted the head coaching job at Minnesota. Kill’s successor, Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Doeren, will stay with the Badgers through their Rose Bowl appearance in January, and linebackers coach Tom Matukewicz will be the interim coach against Fresno State, which has won five of its past seven games. The two losses were to WAC powerhouses Boise State and Nevada.
Northern Illinois is 2-3 all-time in bowl games and is playing in its third straight bowl, dropping the past two by scores of 17-10 and 27-3. Fresno State has scored 103 total points over its three consecutive bowl appearances, but is only 1-2 (SU & ATS) in those games. The win was at this Humanitarian Bowl in 2007 when Fresno knocked off Georgia Tech, 40-28.
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••••• STAN THE MAN CONTINUES TO ROLL! •••••
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Stan 'The Man has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 65-22-4, (74.7%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Forty-One of the last Forty-Four, and in Seventy-Five of the last Seventy-Nine Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!
Fresh off a Spectacular 6-2, (75.0%) Performance Last Week Past, (and once again thanks to all that signed-up) Stan released to all that called, his *4-Star 'MNF Dynamite Super Situational Play' with New England (-2.5, 1rst Half), that was supported by an Amazing Winning Angle inside the game.
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 21 or more points. ATS W-L Record 24-5 (82.8% +18.5 units) Since 1983.
--Result: The New England Patriots made a statement Monday night, pummeling the New York Jets, 45-3, to seize control of the AFC East in impressive fashion. Both teams drove into field goal range on their opening drives. New England's Shayne Graham had enough leg for a 41-yarder through a bitter wind 4:03 in, while Nick Folk missed wildly on a 53-yard try a little later.
Folk scored the visitors' only points early in the second quarter on a 39-yard field goal, capping an eight-play, 46-yard drive. It stayed 24-3 at the break, and the Jets had a promising march thwarted when Brandon Spikes picked off Sanchez in the red zone early in the third.
After taking most of the week off, “The Man Continued to Sizzle with his 'ROCK~SOLID' Roll in NBA Action on Friday, dishing out yet another Huge Top *5-Star Winner (San Antonio -8.5) that was back by this ‘Incredible Super Situational System’ - PLAY ON: Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points. ATS W-L Record 25-4 (86.2%, +20.6 units) Since 1996.
--Result: Richard Jefferson scored 18 points and hit three straight three-point shots in a fourth-quarter display, leading the red-hot San Antonio Spurs to a 108-92 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Jefferson went 6-of-8 from the field and 5-of-6 from long distance for the Spurs, who have won 18 of their last 20 games to improve to an NBA-best 19-3. With the win, it extended Stan's season record on the NBA hardwood to 20-3, (86.9%) with his last twenty-three top rated selections.
Wrapping up the week Sunday, which saw us here at Stat/Systems Sports go 4-1, (80.0%) overall, we got the ball rolling in Charlotte, NC with Atlanta (-4.5 1rst Half). Michael Turner ran for three touchdowns and the Atlanta Falcons continued their quest for the top seed in the NFC with a 31-10 victory over the lowly Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Trailing 17-0 after Matt Bryant made a 39-yard field goal in the second frame, Carolina, which totaled only 33 yards and two first downs through the first half, reached the end zone on its opening possession of the third quarter. Goodson capped the five-play, 81-yard drive with a 13-yard dash.
Stan 'The Man didn't Stop There - As he came right back with another Huge Top *5-Star (Miami/NY Jets Under 19.5 1rst Half) 'Totally Incredible Situational' Winner, Improving his NFL mark to 26-9-2, (74.2%) on the 2010 season.
- PLAY UNDER: Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 - team outrushing opponents by 60+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. W-L Record 25-5 Since 1983, (83.3%, +19.5 units).
--Result: Chad Henne found Brandon Marshall for the game's only touchdown in the first quarter, and the Dolphins pulled out a gritty 10-6 win over the New York Jets in rainy conditions at New Meadowlands Stadium. The Dolphins were out gained in yards, 280-131, but took advantage of two Mark Sanchez turnovers in the opening quarter to come away with their third straight road win against their AFC East rival.
Stan and the staff here at Stat/Systems Sports would like to take the time to thank every one for your kind and wonderful E-Mails: •I've been a Stat/Systems Sports member for close to 3 months now and I just wanted to comment on how tremendous your service has been... Keep up the great work you all have been doing, your daily report is incredibly helpful. Continued success, ~ Mike - Greenwich, CT
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As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** NEW MEXICO BOWL ***
UTEP (6-6) VS. BYU (6-6)
Kickoff, 2:00 p.m. EDT Line: BYU -11.5 O/U 50.5
University Stadium - Albuquerque, New Mexico
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A couple of .500 programs kick off the 2010 bowl season this weekend, as the BYU Cougars clash with the Miners of Texas-El Paso in the fifth annual New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque. BYU, a program that has been one of the elite in the Mountain West Conference for several years, fell on hard times in 2010 and almost appeared to be preparing for a long, hard rebuilding campaign. Following a 23-17 win against Washington in the opener, the Cougars dropped four in a row and the question about the direction in which they were headed began popping up on a regular basis.
However, despite having a fresh-faced quarterback, head coach Bronco Mendenhall refused to give up and thus began the great reclamation project that led to a 6-6 overall record and a 5-3 mark in conference play thanks to a string of four consecutive triumphs over the likes of Wyoming, UNLV, Colorado State and New Mexico before bowing at Utah in the regular-season finale by just a single point, 17-16. As for the Miners, they built themselves up with early success by posting five wins in the first six games, the lone setback coming against a powerful Houston program on the road in week two. Unfortunately, from the middle of the season on the wins became more and more scarce for head coach Mike Price and his crew and as a result they just barely made the cut for the postseason with six wins in 12 opportunities. In fact, UTEP has won just once in the last six outings, a 28-14 triumph over SMU during Conference USA play.
In terms of past bowl experience, the Cougars are taking part in the postseason for the sixth consecutive year but the squad is still struggling with a 10-17-1 mark stretching back to 1974's loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl. A year ago the squad claimed a 44-20 win over Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl, the third time in the last four years that BYU has claimed that particular trophy. Meanwhile, the Miners are back in the postseason for the first time since the 2005 GMAC Bowl when the group suffered a 45-13 loss to Toledo. UTEP has fallen in four straight postseason appearances and hasn't won since putting up a 14-7 decision against Ole Miss in the 1967 Sun Bowl. For their efforts, the Miners have a bowl record of 5-7 overall dating back to 1937.
Both programs are taking part in this bowl for the first time, but if past results are any indication of future expectations, the Cougars should be pleased to know that the last three winners of the event all hailed from the Mountain West Conference as well. A year ago it was Wyoming that secured a 35-28 double-overtime win against Fresno State. As far as an all-time series between these two programs is concerned, BYU owns a 28-7-1 mark versus the Miners, thanks in part to a 31-14 win in the last encounter in November of 1998 between the two former members of the Western Athletic Conference. One interesting note that binds these two programs together is that Price once recruited Mendenhall many moons ago.
Coach Mendenhall has the Cougars in the postseason yet again, despite the team operating with a freshman quarterback for much of the season. Initially the plan was to go with a combination of Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson, but once the latter went down with an injury all the pressure was placed on the shoulders of Heaps. In the second half of the season when the Cougars really needed a boost, Heaps came alive with four straight passing efforts of at least 225 yards and he tossed nine touchdowns against just a single interception in those outings, showing tremendous growth down the stretch.
Making the second half of the season a bit easier on Heaps was JJ Di Luigi, who not only led the team in rushing with 819 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground, he also reeled in a team-high 42 receptions for another 422 yards and a TD as well. Luke Ashworth responded with 31 catches in just two starts during his 12 appearances, but he still turned those into 359 yards and six TDs. During the team's late four-game win streak the rushing attack was a crucial element in the success as the backs gained at least 200 yards and scored a combined 12 touchdowns to take some of the heat off Heaps.
While the offense was slowly building momentum for the Cougars in the second half of the season, so was a defense that allowed a combined 61 points in the final five games. Prior to that run, opponents of BYU had tallied no less than 17 points in any one contest so it was both facets of the team that began to turn the corner when it meant the most. The pass defense for the Cougars was one of the best in the MWC this season, ranking third in the league and 21st nationally with just 187.8 ypg allowed and because of that opponents struggled to generate more than 21.4 ppg on the season overall.
When it comes to offense, the Miners have been paced by quarterback Trevor Vittatoe for a number of years now and has thrown for more than 12,000 yards in his career. The signal-caller has tossed 94 TDs and been picked off 39 times during his time in El Paso, but this year he seemed to have some wild swings in which he either piled up the numbers or struggled to reach even the most basic of achievements. Five times this season, Vittatoe threw for at least three touchdowns in a game, hitting a total of five versus New Mexico State early on, but in the other seven contests he threw for a total of two scores.
Unfortunately for Vittatoe, the rushing attack barely made a dent against the competition on most weekends, averaging just 149.5 ypg to place seventh in Conference USA and 69th in the country, so there wasn't much help coming out of the backfield for UTEP. Wideout Chris Adams had some strong numbers down the field for the Miners with his 44 receptions for 917 yards and 11 TDs, but like Vittatoe those scoring plays seemed to come in clusters, like the one during a four-game streak in the first half of the season when Adams hit the end zone seven times in three games.
"They are pretty hot right now," notes coach Price of the Cougars heading into this meeting. "They might be one of the hottest teams in college football. Their freshman quarterback (Jake Heaps) has really turned it on lately and he's not a new freshman anymore. He's got 12 games under his belt so he knows how to play. They are huge up front and their backs are going to be hard to bring down. It is going to be a challenge I think for our defense."
The Miners are well aware of how much potential the BYU offense has when everything falls into place, which is why it will be important for the entire UTEP defense to be ready to go. Unfortunately, the squad doesn't have any singular stand-out performer that the Cougars have to key on with their blocking schemes and that could come back to haunt the Miners. In fact, UTEP failed to get much pressure at all at the line of scrimmage this season, averaging a mere 3.58 tackles for loss per game to rank last in the conference and 118th in the nation. Generating sacks was of similar concern as the group logged just 1.2 per contest to tie for 105th in the nation at the end of the regular season.
One player that might stand out for the Miners on that side of the ball is defensive back Travaun Nixon who leads the group with three interceptions and ranks third on the unit in total tackles with 69 as he was named to the All- Conference USA Second Team.
"I expect them to play really hard and be as motivated as we are to prove that maybe they are a better team than 6-6," says coach Mendenhall about the Miners..."Coach Price, you just look at his history and what he has done at UTEP, you can tell they will be well prepared and have good schemes. I've seen it on film so I think you'll get good coaching in the game and two motivated teams with an intriguing matchup. I think it's going to be a great game."
• PREGAME NOTES
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UTEP had one victory over an FBS team with a winning record this season, a 28-14 decision over 7-5 SMU on November 6, and the Miners’ five FBS victims in 2010 own a combined record of 15-45 SU. BYU also defeated just one winning team this year, San Diego State, but played well in losses to nationally ranked TCU and Utah. Perhaps even more troubling is the fact that the Miners bring far better numbers to today’s lid-lifter. UTEP head coach Mike Price has gone 5-2 SU and ATS versus MWC foes, including 3-0 SU and ATS as an underdog, and 6-6 bowl dogs have posted a respectable 18-9 ATS record.
BYU has certainly controlled this series (teams were former WAC rivals) but its 11-1 SU record masks a losing 4-7-1 ATS mark. The Mormons also own a money-burning 0-5 SU log in bowl games when entering off a loss and QB Jake Heaps may still be hampered by a rib injury suffered in the Utah game. The bottom line is double-digit favorites in pre-New Year’s Day bowl games are just 15-33-3 ATS since 1980, including 2-10-1 ATS when playing a foe with an equal or better W-L record.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - BYU by 10; O/U 47
*STAN'S POWER LINE - BYU -10.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - BYU -10.70
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--UTEP is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was UTEP 24.2, OPPONENT 32.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTEP is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was UTEP 25.6, OPPONENT 34.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BYU is 25-9 UNDER (+15.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders since 1992.
The average score was BYU 25.0, OPPONENT 24.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BYU is 38-21 UNDER (+14.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
The average score was BYU 26.4, OPPONENT 23.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--BYU is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BYU 23.0, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BYU is 35-20 UNDER (+13.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
The average score was BYU 12.0, OPPONENT 11.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--BYU is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 10.8, OPPONENT 13.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--BYU is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was BYU 12.4, OPPONENT 12.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (BYU) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences.
(42-14 since 1992.) (75.0%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 56.4
The average score in these games was: Team 23.7, Opponent 23.7 (Total points scored = 47.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 32 (59.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (38-14).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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*** HUMANITARIAN BOWL ***
N ILLINOIS (10-3) VS. FRESNO ST (8-4)
Kickoff, 5:30 p.m. EDT Line: N Ill -1 O/U 59
Bronco Stadium - Boise Idaho
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The 14th annual Humanitarian Bowl brings back a familiar face in the Fresno State Bulldogs who will be taking on the Northern Illinois Huskies this weekend in Boise, Idaho. Fresno State, guided by head coach Pat Hill, is playing in this particular bowl game for the third time in the last seven years and already has wins over Virginia (37-34 OT) and Georgia Tech (40-28) in 2004 and 2007, respectively. Known as a program that is willing to take on anyone, anytime, anywhere, the Bulldogs managed to put together an 8-4 record in 2010 and were an impressive 5-3 versus the rest of the Western Athletic Conference.
Coach Hill had little trouble guiding the squad to wins over the second-tier programs in the WAC and almost pulled off a huge upset against nationally-ranked Nevada as well, before bowing in a 35-34 final at home in the middle of November. The Bulldogs are currently riding a two-game win streak thanks to victories over Idaho and Illinois, although they came by a combined five points. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is a program in transition. Earlier this month head coach Jerry Kill accepted an offer to become the next head coach at Minnesota and that means assistant coach Tom Matukewicz will handle the head coaching responsibilities for this particular contest before the team is handed over to Dave Doeren, who will become the full-time man after his Wisconsin Badgers have finished up their season in the Rose Bowl against TCU on January 1, 2011.
The Huskies ran the table in the Mid-American Conference this season, sporting a perfect 8-0 record as they captured the West Division title. In fact, the team won nine straight games to close out the regular season, with the streak beginning with a 34-23 win at Minnesota ironically enough. However, even being the top scoring offense in the league (37.9 ppg) couldn't help the squad when it came to the MAC Championship game against Miami-Ohio. A week after putting up an incredible 71-3 win over Eastern Michigan, the Huskies found themselves with a disappointing 26-21 defeat at the hands of a RedHawks team that converted a late 4th-and-20 play to stay alive.
Needless to say, it was a devastating setback for a Northern Illinois group that had scored a combined 195 points in the third previous, but still there is work to be done. "The staff and I are thrilled to have a plan in place to lead our football team at the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho.," said Matukewicz when he assumed control. "Our hearts were broken in Detroit, then we lost our coach on Sunday, so we have a choice to make. We can all come together as a team, a university, a community and a region for a common goal, or we can start to fracture. On December 18, on national television, we have an opportunity to tell our story about a great university and a team everyone can be proud of. We have three goals in Boise - win, have fun and celebrate one of the best seasons in school history."
NIU's bowl history dates back to 1983 when the team took down Fullerton by a final of 20-13 in the California Bowl, but after that it was more than two decades before the Huskies made it back to the postseason with their 34-21 victory against Troy in the 2004 Silicon Valley Bowl. Unfortunately, the last three bowl appearances for NIU have all resulted in defeat, the most recent of those being a 27-3 loss to South Florida in last year's International Bowl which dropped the group to 2-3 in bowl outings. As for the Bulldogs, they are into the postseason for the fourth straight year and the 24th time overall dating back to the 1937 All-American Bowl which brought them a 27-26 win over Arkansas State. Last season, FSU lost in double- overtime to Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl, 35-28, which means the Bulldogs are now just a game over .500 in the postseason at 12-11.
"Our team is excited to play in the Humanitarian Bowl against a very talented Northern Illinois team," said coach Hill, who is in his 14th season at Fresno State. "Boise is a great football town with great fan support not only for their hometown Broncos but for college football in general. Our two previous trips were special and memorable for our team and we had two historic wins for our program. We are looking forward to the great hospitality of the people of the Treasure Valley."
The guiding force behind the high-powered Northern Illinois offense down the stretch came from the rushing attack which finished the season with not only 3,442 yards, but a staggering 38 touchdowns. In the final three regular-season dates, the group scored an amazing 18 TDs on the ground and Chad Spann played a big part of that as he hit the end zone eight times on his own versus Toledo, Ball State and EMU. Spann didn't exactly blow away opponents with overwhelming yardage totals, outside of his 223 yards on just 15 carries versus the Golden Gophers early on, but he was always there to get the team into the end zone which he did a total of 20 times.
Quarterback Chandler Harnish was a model of consistency with his 64.7 percent passing accuracy and 20 TDs through the air, against just five interceptions, which means the Huskies can beat you a couple of different ways when they face the right defense. Willie Clark led the group with 38 catches for 514 yards and seven TDs as well. On defense, the Huskies have a couple of ball hawks who always seem to be part of the action in one way or another. Tyrone Clark and Chris Smith combined to log seven interceptions, the latter leading the team with nine pass breakups and a total of 12 defended. Tommy Davis accounted for three recovered fumbles as he also placed third on the squad with 69 tackles and because of that trio the Huskies finished second in the MAC and 17th in the nation in turnover margin (0.77) per game.
The hallmark of a Pat Hill-coached team continues to be the defense and, outside of the ugly 51-0 loss to Boise State on the road back in late November, it was again the centerpiece around what everything else was built in 2010. The group placed second in the conference and sixth in the nation in sacks with better than three per game and was 21st nationally with almost seven tackles for loss per outing and a lot of the credit there goes to senior defensive end Chris Carter. The California native led the WAC and was seventh in the nation in sacks with 11.0 for a loss of 63 yards on the season. He was tied for second in the conference in TFLs with 16.5 and forced four fumbles on the year as he became the fourth FSU member to earn the Western Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year award.
Once again the offense for the Bulldogs was rather ordinary in 2010, but of course that will always be the case when the program is going up against the likes of Hawaii, Nevada and Boise State every year anyway. Quarterback Ryan Colburn was responsible for converting almost 62 percent of his pass attempts for more than 2,500 yards and 21 touchdowns, against just nine interceptions, but after throwing nine TDs over the first three games he didn't exactly raise many eyebrows until the regular-season finale when he threw three TDs and posted just his second 300-yard passing game in the win over Illinois.
Receiver Jamel Hamler earned all-conference honors as he turned his 47 catches into 725 yards and five scores, all of which paced the Bulldogs, but once again this year the offense leaned heavily on the running back position and one Robbie Rouse who gained close to 1,100 yards and hit the end zone eight times. Rouse ran for more than 100 yards in four straight games and had back- to-back 200-yard efforts as well, but he missed the Illinois matchup and is listed as questionable this weekend with an injury to his ribs.
• PREGAME NOTES
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These two teams have played one mutual opponent in Illinois. The Illini racked up 319 rushing yards en route to a 28-22 victory over Northern Illinois in Champaign in Week Three while the Bulldogs won 25-23 over Illinois in their regular season finale. Today’s game also features a pair of 1000-yard rushers in the Huskies’ Robbie Rouse and the Bulldogs’ Chad Spann. But where it matters most, FSU boasts a significant edge in the pointspread department.
Despite a glowing 21-7 SU and 18-6-1 ATS ledger against sub .500 opposition, NIU is only 2-9 SU and ATS versus greater than .500 foes. In addition, the Huskies fit this week’s 'INCREDIBLE STAT' - MAC bowlers have gone a lifeless 1-11 SU and 0-11-1 ATS since 2008. Keep a close eye on the line as FSU coach Hill is 5-0 ATS as a dog off a SU dog win, and the underdog is a perfect 10-0 ATS in the last ten Bulldogs’ bowl games.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - N Illinois by 4; O/U 59
*STAN'S POWER LINE - N Illinois -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - N Illinois -4.73
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--FRESNO ST is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 29.2, OPPONENT 31.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--FRESNO ST is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 28.2, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--FRESNO ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 18.8, OPPONENT 43.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--FRESNO ST is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 28.5, OPPONENT 33.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--N ILLINOIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 47.3, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--N ILLINOIS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 37.9, OPPONENT 21.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--N ILLINOIS is 35-20 UNDER (+13.0 Units) after the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 27.0, OPPONENT 25.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--N ILLINOIS is 23-10 UNDER (+12.0 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. since 1992.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 25.0, OPPONENT 27.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--FRESNO ST is 24-42 against the 1rst half line (-22.2 Units) in road games after playing a game at home since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 12.9, OPPONENT 15.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--FRESNO ST is 11-22 against the 1rst half line (-13.2 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 15.0, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--FRESNO ST is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 10.8, OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--N ILLINOIS is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 21.0, OPPONENT 11.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--N ILLINOIS is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was N ILLINOIS 25.0, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--FRESNO ST is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 12.5, OPPONENT 17.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--FRESNO ST is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after a win by 3 or less points since 1992.
The average score was FRESNO ST 17.6, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--FRESNO ST is 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 15.7, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--FRESNO ST is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after playing a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was FRESNO ST 19.5, OPPONENT 15.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team against the total (FRESNO ST) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences.
(42-14 since 1992.) (75%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 56.4
The average score in these games was: Team 23.7, Opponent 23.7 (Total points scored = 47.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 32 (59.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (38-14).
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*** NEW ORLEANS BOWL ***
OHIO U (8-4) VS. TROY (7-5)
Kickoff, 9:00 p.m. EDT Line: Troy -1.5 O/U 57.5
Superdome - New Orleans, LA
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Troy will make its third straight bowl appearance this Saturday, when the Trojans take on the Ohio University Bobcats in the New Orleans Bowl from the Louisiana Superdome. This is the third straight bowl appearance for the Trojans, and the fifth in the last seven years. Two of those postseason matchups have taken place in the New Orleans Bowl, so it is safe to assume the Trojans will not be overwhelmed by the lure of Bourbon Street. Overall the Trojans are just 1-3 in their bowl appearances, and one of those setbacks came against Southern Mississippi in the Superdome back in 2008. However, the lone victory also came in the building, as the Trojans claimed the New Orleans Bowl title with a 44-17 victory over Rice in 2006.
When the season started in Troy, the players had a goal for the season and along with that goal came the catchy moniker "Drive for Five". With the team clinching at least a share of the four previous Sun Belt Conference titles, the Trojans were driven for a fifth title, and while the team achieved that goal, it certainly wasn't easy. Thanks to a little help from Middle Tennessee, which defeated FIU in its regular-season finale, the Trojans finished tied with the Golden Panthers atop of the league standings at 6-2. "We did it," receiver Jason Bruce said. "We completed the 'Drive for Five'. That was the main thing on my mind. Middle Tennessee came through to beat FIU. A lot of guys that graduated before wanted us to keep the legacy alive. They wanted us to keep the things going that they started which was winning the conference."
Entering their second bye of the season the Trojans were a healthy 4-2 on the year, but a poor four-game stretch which saw Troy lose three games, including a 52-35 setback to FIU left another league title in doubt. However, Larry Blakeney is a veteran coach, and he kept his team focused on the prize, and the team's unbreakable will to win pushed the Trojans through Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic in their final two matchups.
While the Trojans' regular season ended with a bang, the Bobcats closed out their schedule with a whimper. Coach Frank Solich's crew opened the year with a poor September, losing three of its first four games, but once the calendar shifted to October the Bobcats turned opponents into prey. One by one the Bobcats dominated their competition, and when the dust settled Ohio went into its regular-season finale with a seven-game winning streak and a chance to claim its third Mid-American Conference East Division title in five seasons. All the Bobcats needed to do was beat a mediocre Kent State squad and it was off to Detroit to take on Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship. However, that was not the case, as the Bobcats were stunned by the Golden Flashes, 28-6.
It was truly a shocking turn of events for coach Solich and his Bobcats, who scored over 30 ppg during their winning streak. Despite the loss, Ohio still earned a trip to New Orleans and these players understand it is an honor and a privilege. "The traditions in New Orleans are very rich," said Ohio senior safety and captain Donovan Fletcher. "The opportunity to play a bowl game there makes the experience even more memorable. Troy is an exceptional team and competing against them will be a challenge that I know our team is looking forward to."
Surely a division title and chance at a conference championship would have sent the Bobcats charging into a bowl game, but instead Ohio will need to pick up the pieces, forget about what could have been, and try to capture the first bowl victory in school history. This is only the fifth bowl matchup for the Bobcats, but it is the third since 2007. Ohio made a trip to the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl last year, but was narrowly defeated by Marshall, 21-17. What will make this game even more appealing is the fact that this will be the first-ever battle between the two programs on the gridiron.
Over the past few seasons the offense for Troy caused terror inside the Sun Belt. However, the year began with a fresh-faced quarterback, who was replacing one of the all-time greats at the school. When the season opened no one in Troy knew what to expect from Corey Robinson, and the departure of Levi Brown could have meant the reign for the Trojans was finally coming to an end. Clearly, that was not the case. Robinson stepped in and instantly started airing the ball out, as if he was picking up where Brown left off. The redshirt freshman threw for 3,339 yards and 24 touchdowns while completing over 62 percent of his throws. All those numbers added up to Second Team honors in the Sun Belt and a Freshman of the Year award as well, but more importantly to Robinson and the fans of Troy, they led to another league title. Now the next step for the young gunslinger will be to prove he can perform on the big stage of a bowl game.
It definitely helped Robinson's maturation process having a player as explosive and talented as Jerrel Jernigan at his disposal. Jernigan will go down not only as the best receiver in the program's history, but will also be on a short list of some of the best to ever play in the Sun Belt. Jernigan will finish his college career as the record holder for receptions, yards and all-purpose yards at Troy and in the Sun Belt. This year, the veteran wideout led the team with 77 receptions and 774 yards, while also hauling in five touchdowns. Along with his ability to burn defensive backs, Jernigan is also a tremendous return man and will definitely be on coach Solich's list as the number one player that needs to be contained in this matchup.
Opponents are going to focus their attention on stopping Robinson and the passing attack from putting up its usual numbers, but if Ohio is too worried about the pass, than the Bobcats could be burned on the ground. With all the attention being diverted to the passing game, and rightfully so, the rushing attack for Troy can quietly put up solid numbers. In fact, the team comes into this game averaging 151.3 ypg and is being paced by Shawn Southward (548 yards, seven TDs) and DuJuan Harris (498 yards, five TDs).
Coach Blakeney went to bed every night before a game knowing his offense was going to produce, but in the back of his mind lied the play of the defense. For everything the offense did right this season, the defense responded with inconsistent play. It wasn't all bad for this unit, as the Trojans made plenty of big plays and finished the regular season with 35 sacks and 28 takeaways. However, with all those sacks and takeaways, the defense still surrendered an inexcusable 31.0 ppg. The majority of those sacks were racked up by Jonathan Massaquoi and Mario Addison. Massaquoi, who is a First Team All-Sun Belt selection tallied 11, while Addison (Second Team) collected nine. The two players also combined for 31.5 TFLs on the year, but no matter how much pressure the duo brought, the defense still could not stop the pass, allowing 247.6 ypg through the air.
Also by mid-season it was clearly that Massaquoi and the rest of the frontline, might play like gangbusters against the pass, but when it came to defending the run, the unit was lacking. Troy was simply overmatched and overpowered on the ground, as opponents gashed the team for 170.8 ypg and 26 touchdowns. The reason Troy's top priority should be to stop the run, is because the Bobcats are dedicated to pounding the rock. Behind two First Team All-MAC tackles in Joe Flading and A.J. Strum, the Bobcats will definitely try to establish the run early and wear down this Trojan defense through four quarters.
The Bobcats head into this matchup averaging a respectable 169.2 ypg on the ground, but Troy will not be able to focus on one player, and will also need to worry about the quarterback taking off down the field as well. Because of that, Ohio has the ability to fool opponents with its ground game. Sure, Vince Davidson is leading the team with 513 yards, to go along with six touchdowns, but the second two rushing leaders are quarterbacks. Phil Bates, who is mainly brought into the game to run the football, has rumbled for 508 yards, while starting quarterback Boo Jackson has rushed for 325 yards and a team-best seven touchdowns.
While the Bobcats might pose a threat on the ground, their passing attack is not going to scare any opponent, even Troy. Jackson did complete slightly over 60.0 percent of his throws, but comes into New Orleans with just 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. And as for Bates, his passing numbers are a clear indication why he is brought into games, because the young QB has completed just 40.9 percent of his throws. If Jackson is unable to make Troy respect the pass, than the Bobcats could be in for another performance similar to the one against Kent State.
Since coach Solich has been at Ohio, the number one priority has been playing tough, and tenacious defense. Each year the Bobcats seem to be one of the best defensive teams in the MAC, and that was certainly the case this season, as they held the opposition to just 21.8 ppg. The leader of this unit is veteran safety Donovan Fletcher, who racked up 68 tackles, while earning Second Team honors in the MAC. Fletcher collected five of the team's 17 interceptions and was the biggest reason for the team's success against the pass. Fletcher is more than a playmaker, he is virtually a coach on the field, and his guidance and understanding of the defense is the reason why Ohio allowed only 17 touchdowns via the pass. One of the key matchups in this game on Saturday will be the play of Fletcher and this tough defensive backfield against the arm of Robinson and Troy's receiving corps.
• PREGAME NOTES
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Speaking of empty seats, the Superdome will look like a gigantic cavern when these two lightweights show up to do battle. Given a choice, would you rather watch a game that pits the Sun Belt against the MAC or go partying on Bourbon Street? Yeah, we thought so. Like previously mentioned Northern Illinois, Ohio finds itself victimized by our 'INCREDIBLE STAT' of the Week – as well as head coach Frank Solich’s 6-13 SU history facing .580 or greater opposition.
Today’s participants played two common foes in 2010, Bowling Green and Louisiana, and Larry Blakeney’s Trojans emerged with a +133 net YPG advantage. With Troy owning a superb 37-11 mark ‘In The Stats’ the past four seasons and with Sun Belt bowlers off a win of six or more points posting a 6-2-1 pointspread record of late, the Trojans would seem to be the obviously play. However, our powerful database demands that we tell the whole truth and nothing but: the favorite is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in Trojan bowl games and 0-6-1 ATS in Trojan versus MAC contests.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Troy by 1; O/U 57
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Troy -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Troy -0.86
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
---------------------------
--OHIO U is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO U 25.8, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--TROY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TROY 41.6, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------
--TROY is 21-8 OVER (+12.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was TROY 21.8, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--TROY is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TROY 31.3, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--TROY is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TROY 18.8, OPPONENT 12.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--TROY is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) in road games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TROY 17.5, OPPONENT 9.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--TROY is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on a Saturday this season.
The average score was TROY 19.8, OPPONENT 19.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--TROY is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TROY 18.8, OPPONENT 21.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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NOTE: There are no Stat/Systems Sports Super Situations with records of significance that apply to this game.
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