Welcome to Ecks & Bacon for Saturday, December 13, 2014 (AKA CHALK OR BENJAMIN LEE ECKSTEIN)
North Carolina +12
We were looking at North Carolina against Kentucky this afternoon, even before UK forward Alex Poythress went down for the year. The Wildcats could also be without guards Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker, who are both listed as questionable. Kentucky is #1, but the Tar Heels come in with a solid 6-2 record straight up, 5-3 against the spread, and have covered BOTH games on the road (a 90-72 win at Davidson as a -13.5 point favorite, and a 75-64 W against the Florida Gators down in Gainesville as a 5.5 point fav). Rupp Arena is one of the toughest places in the country to get a W, but the Heels don't need to win, just cover the generous spread. The 'Cats are still perfect at 10-0, but there are chinks in the armor. They have covered just one of the last four at home, and might be huffin' and puffin' with less depth than usual. Gimme half a Benjamin on UNC and check out this three team 5-point college hoop teaser. Start with LaSalle, and take the Explorers up from +1 to +6 points against Drexel. Then grab St. Mary's-CA and bump the Gaels up from +6 to +11 points over Creighton. Close it out with Dayton, and take the Flyers up from +10 to +15 points against Arkansas. Another half a Benj on the tease.
North Carolina +12
We were looking at North Carolina against Kentucky this afternoon, even before UK forward Alex Poythress went down for the year. The Wildcats could also be without guards Tyler Ulis and Devin Booker, who are both listed as questionable. Kentucky is #1, but the Tar Heels come in with a solid 6-2 record straight up, 5-3 against the spread, and have covered BOTH games on the road (a 90-72 win at Davidson as a -13.5 point favorite, and a 75-64 W against the Florida Gators down in Gainesville as a 5.5 point fav). Rupp Arena is one of the toughest places in the country to get a W, but the Heels don't need to win, just cover the generous spread. The 'Cats are still perfect at 10-0, but there are chinks in the armor. They have covered just one of the last four at home, and might be huffin' and puffin' with less depth than usual. Gimme half a Benjamin on UNC and check out this three team 5-point college hoop teaser. Start with LaSalle, and take the Explorers up from +1 to +6 points against Drexel. Then grab St. Mary's-CA and bump the Gaels up from +6 to +11 points over Creighton. Close it out with Dayton, and take the Flyers up from +10 to +15 points against Arkansas. Another half a Benj on the tease.
The Sports Network
DATE & TIME: Saturday, December 13, 3 p.m. (ET)
FACTS & STATS: Site: M&T Bank Stadium (71,008) -- Baltimore, Maryland. Television: CBS. Home Record: Navy 3-2, Army 3-2. Away Record: Navy 3-1, Army 0-5. Neutral Record: Navy 0-2, Army 1-0. Conference Record: Navy 0-0, Army 0-0. Series Record: Navy Leads, 58-49-7.
GAME NOTES: The final game of the 2014 regular season is the classic Army-Navy matchup, played this year at M&T Bank Stadium.
The Black Knights will be closing up shop no matter what the outcome of this, the 115th edition of the battle between the Academies. Army won just twice through the first eight games of the season, defeating Buffalo and Ball State, but the team showed some resiliency in the last several weeks by posting two victories in three chances.
The squad took down UConn by a score of 35-21 the second week of November, and then closed out the month with a 42-31 triumph over Fordham at home. The Black Knights failed to win a single true road game, but the good news is that the squad did squeeze out a neutral-site triumph over the Huskies.
As for the Midshipmen, they already have plans made for the postseason, facing off against San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego regardless of the outcome of this meeting. Heading to the postseason for the 11th time since 2003, Navy enters this meeting one game over .500 thanks to a narrow 42-40 victory over South Alabama on the road on Nov. 28.
In terms of the series between these two programs, Navy is ahead by a count of 58-49-7, thanks in large part to a 12-game win streak that stretches back to 2002 for the Midshipmen. Last season, Navy delivered a 34-7 win in Philadelphia.
In games played in Baltimore, the Knights have managed to split four encounters, but at this particular facility, Navy is 2-0, with the most recent win being a 38-3 thrashing back in 2007.
The last win for Army took place in 2001 as the team secured a 26-17 final at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
Both of these teams rely heavily on running the football, but Navy has managed to add some passing to the mix thanks to quarterback Keenan Reynolds. The signal caller has thrown five TDs this season, against three interceptions, to at least give defenses reason to cover receivers when they do appear on the field.
But make no mistake, Reynolds is a run-first quarterback who has become one of the best at his position in that mode. With three rushing touchdowns against South Alabama, Reynolds set an NCAA record for rushing scores by a quarterback with 60, with 20 of those coming this year alone. The MVP in each of the last two Army-Navy battles, Reynolds has also set the NCAA mark for the most games (12) with at least three rushing TDs, passing Montee Ball of Wisconsin.
Ranked first in the nation in rushing with 357.8 ypg, the Midshipmen have nine players who have gained at least 100 yards this season, three with at least 500 yards as Reynolds leads the way with his 1,082 yards on 205 attempts over the course of nine games. Noah Copeland contributes another 78.1 ypg, averaging better than eight yards per carry, and landing in the end zone five times.
Out on the edges, Jamir Tillman and Brendan Dudeck both have a pair of receiving scores, the former registering 18 receptions for 338 yards in an effort to keep defenses honest.
On the defensive side of the ball, Navy is giving up 426.2 ypg (86th in the nation), with a good portion of those yards coming on the ground (199.8 ypg), which ranks the squad 96th in the country. Jordan Drake paces the program with 85 tackles, while Parrish Gaines has picked off three passes and Bernard Sarra has been credited with three blocked kicks, something the Black Knights need to keep in mind.
Another aspect of the game that Navy has excelled at this season is in the area of penalties. A disciplined group for sure, the Midshipmen are first in the nation in both fewest penalties per game (2.27) and yards assessed (23.4 ypg).
Navy will be tasked with slowing down an Army rushing attack which is fifth in the nation with 305.5 ypg. Considering the Black Knights are dead last in the FBS with a mere 64.5 ypg through the air, the Midshipmen should be able to load the box and attack the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Angel Santiago, who has taken the majority of the snaps for the Academy this season, has completed 51.5 percent of his pass attempts for a meager 44.4 ypg and a single TD, against one interception. Unlike Navy, the Knights go to the air only when they absolutely have to.
Instead, Santiago has taken off for a team-high 182 runs, leading to 793 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns, his scoring total one ahead of Larry Dixon who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on 177 attempts, leading to a team-high 1,028 yards.
Another legitimate threat is Terry Baggett who, during the 2013 campaign raced for 304 yards and four touchdowns in a huge win over Eastern Michigan. He hasn't had a break-out game anywhere near that since, but you never know when he could get into a groove for the Black Knights.
Should Army threaten to go to the air at any point this weekend, Edgar Poe would be a safe bet having caught a team-best 10 passes for 199 yards and a score, although Xavier Moss had even better results on his six grabs in 11 games, finding his way into the end zone twice.
The fact that the Knights rank 119th in the country in pass efficiency defense, with a rating of 154.88, it only makes sense that Navy would try to exploit that weakness. Jeremy Timpf, who leads the Knights in tackles with 102 and is first with 14.0 stops for loss, will do all he can to slow down the opposition, but it might be an uphill battle. Josh Jenkins (60 tackles) and Chris Carnegie (51 tackles) have combined with Timpf to account for 10 interceptions, but that aspect of the game will provide opportunities that are few and far between.
Even though these teams have the utmost respect for each other, the fact remains that Navy has the better offensive talent and can do more things with the ball. That means the Midshipmen will control the action longer and give Army fewer opportunities on offense in what will probably be the 13th straight victory for Navy in this historic series.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Navy 41, Army 17
DATE & TIME: Saturday, December 13, 3 p.m. (ET)
FACTS & STATS: Site: M&T Bank Stadium (71,008) -- Baltimore, Maryland. Television: CBS. Home Record: Navy 3-2, Army 3-2. Away Record: Navy 3-1, Army 0-5. Neutral Record: Navy 0-2, Army 1-0. Conference Record: Navy 0-0, Army 0-0. Series Record: Navy Leads, 58-49-7.
GAME NOTES: The final game of the 2014 regular season is the classic Army-Navy matchup, played this year at M&T Bank Stadium.
The Black Knights will be closing up shop no matter what the outcome of this, the 115th edition of the battle between the Academies. Army won just twice through the first eight games of the season, defeating Buffalo and Ball State, but the team showed some resiliency in the last several weeks by posting two victories in three chances.
The squad took down UConn by a score of 35-21 the second week of November, and then closed out the month with a 42-31 triumph over Fordham at home. The Black Knights failed to win a single true road game, but the good news is that the squad did squeeze out a neutral-site triumph over the Huskies.
As for the Midshipmen, they already have plans made for the postseason, facing off against San Diego State in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego regardless of the outcome of this meeting. Heading to the postseason for the 11th time since 2003, Navy enters this meeting one game over .500 thanks to a narrow 42-40 victory over South Alabama on the road on Nov. 28.
In terms of the series between these two programs, Navy is ahead by a count of 58-49-7, thanks in large part to a 12-game win streak that stretches back to 2002 for the Midshipmen. Last season, Navy delivered a 34-7 win in Philadelphia.
In games played in Baltimore, the Knights have managed to split four encounters, but at this particular facility, Navy is 2-0, with the most recent win being a 38-3 thrashing back in 2007.
The last win for Army took place in 2001 as the team secured a 26-17 final at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
Both of these teams rely heavily on running the football, but Navy has managed to add some passing to the mix thanks to quarterback Keenan Reynolds. The signal caller has thrown five TDs this season, against three interceptions, to at least give defenses reason to cover receivers when they do appear on the field.
But make no mistake, Reynolds is a run-first quarterback who has become one of the best at his position in that mode. With three rushing touchdowns against South Alabama, Reynolds set an NCAA record for rushing scores by a quarterback with 60, with 20 of those coming this year alone. The MVP in each of the last two Army-Navy battles, Reynolds has also set the NCAA mark for the most games (12) with at least three rushing TDs, passing Montee Ball of Wisconsin.
Ranked first in the nation in rushing with 357.8 ypg, the Midshipmen have nine players who have gained at least 100 yards this season, three with at least 500 yards as Reynolds leads the way with his 1,082 yards on 205 attempts over the course of nine games. Noah Copeland contributes another 78.1 ypg, averaging better than eight yards per carry, and landing in the end zone five times.
Out on the edges, Jamir Tillman and Brendan Dudeck both have a pair of receiving scores, the former registering 18 receptions for 338 yards in an effort to keep defenses honest.
On the defensive side of the ball, Navy is giving up 426.2 ypg (86th in the nation), with a good portion of those yards coming on the ground (199.8 ypg), which ranks the squad 96th in the country. Jordan Drake paces the program with 85 tackles, while Parrish Gaines has picked off three passes and Bernard Sarra has been credited with three blocked kicks, something the Black Knights need to keep in mind.
Another aspect of the game that Navy has excelled at this season is in the area of penalties. A disciplined group for sure, the Midshipmen are first in the nation in both fewest penalties per game (2.27) and yards assessed (23.4 ypg).
Navy will be tasked with slowing down an Army rushing attack which is fifth in the nation with 305.5 ypg. Considering the Black Knights are dead last in the FBS with a mere 64.5 ypg through the air, the Midshipmen should be able to load the box and attack the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Angel Santiago, who has taken the majority of the snaps for the Academy this season, has completed 51.5 percent of his pass attempts for a meager 44.4 ypg and a single TD, against one interception. Unlike Navy, the Knights go to the air only when they absolutely have to.
Instead, Santiago has taken off for a team-high 182 runs, leading to 793 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns, his scoring total one ahead of Larry Dixon who is averaging 5.8 yards per carry on 177 attempts, leading to a team-high 1,028 yards.
Another legitimate threat is Terry Baggett who, during the 2013 campaign raced for 304 yards and four touchdowns in a huge win over Eastern Michigan. He hasn't had a break-out game anywhere near that since, but you never know when he could get into a groove for the Black Knights.
Should Army threaten to go to the air at any point this weekend, Edgar Poe would be a safe bet having caught a team-best 10 passes for 199 yards and a score, although Xavier Moss had even better results on his six grabs in 11 games, finding his way into the end zone twice.
The fact that the Knights rank 119th in the country in pass efficiency defense, with a rating of 154.88, it only makes sense that Navy would try to exploit that weakness. Jeremy Timpf, who leads the Knights in tackles with 102 and is first with 14.0 stops for loss, will do all he can to slow down the opposition, but it might be an uphill battle. Josh Jenkins (60 tackles) and Chris Carnegie (51 tackles) have combined with Timpf to account for 10 interceptions, but that aspect of the game will provide opportunities that are few and far between.
Even though these teams have the utmost respect for each other, the fact remains that Navy has the better offensive talent and can do more things with the ball. That means the Midshipmen will control the action longer and give Army fewer opportunities on offense in what will probably be the 13th straight victory for Navy in this historic series.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Navy 41, Army 17
GMC CBB Selections
530 Pittsburgh -8
10* 576 Vanderbilt +2.5
530 Pittsburgh -8
10* 576 Vanderbilt +2.5
Mike O' Connor :
I'm adding three Best Bets below and barring any significant line moves that will be it for this week.
I'm adding:
(319)**Washington +7 (-120)
(329)**San Francisco +10 (-115)
(331)**Dallas +3.5 (-125)
Previously sent:
(305)***Oakland +10.5 (-115)
Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***Oakland (+10.5 -115) 20 KANSAS CITY 21
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 305 Over/Under 41.5
With three straight losses the Chiefs find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs and will likely need to win out for a wild-card spot. It won’t be easy getting the first of those wins against a Raiders team that began the Chiefs three game slide with a 24-20 victory in Oakland a few weeks ago. The Raiders have improved recently, winning two of their last three and last week beat the 49ers 24-13 in a game that they dominated (330 total yards at 5.5 yppl to 248 yards at 4.4 yppl for the 49ers). Quarterback Derek Carr has improved and a running game led by running back Latavius Murray has shown some explosiveness recently (265 rushing yards at 6.5 ypr). This is a rivalry game and the Raiders know that they can beat Kansas City so I expect a strong performance against a limited Chiefs team that has trouble stopping the run (136 yards allowed at 5.0 ypr against teams that gain 109 yards at 4.3 ypr) and has no downfield passing attack to speak of (averaging 191 passing yards at 5.8 yps against teams that allow 229 yards at 6.1 yps). This is too many points to give as my model predicts a 8.2 point Kansas City win and the Raiders qualify in a 500-414-16 turnover based situation as well as a 404-338-13 divisional match up spot. I’ll take Oakland +10.5 (-115) for 3-stars down to +10 and for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Washington (+7 -120) 26 NY GIANTS 24
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 319 Over/Under 47.0
From a yppl perspective the Redskins actually look like a just below average team as they have gained 357 total yards at 5.7 yppl against teams that allow 354 yards at 5.6 yppl on offense while allowing 343 yards at 5.8 yppl to teams that gain 343 yards at 5.5 yppl defensively. Their problems have stemmed from their terrible third down offense (#30) and their below average third down defense (9th worst). Meanwhile, the Giants have been just the opposite with adjusted yppl stats that are well below average - gaining 348 total yards at 5.2 yppl against teams that allow 352 yards at 5.6 yppl on offense while allowing 371 yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that gain 357 yards at 5.7 yppl defensively. However, they have been very good in their third down offense (#8) and their third down defense (6th best). I’m banking on some regression to the mean in this game in those categories and that has me leaning the Redskins way. Washington also qualifies in a 13-1-2 situation that plays on certain teams off of a shutout loss while benefitting from a negative 111-199-8 situation that plays against the Giants. My model likes the Redskins in this game quite a bit as well (-.4 points) and with these teams off divergent results (the Giants with a 36-7 win versus Tennessee and the Redskins off the 0-24 shutout) I’ll take the clearly contrarian route in this one and take the Redskins +7 -120 for 2-stars down to +6.
**San Francisco (+10 -115) 17 SEATTLE 18
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 329 Over/Under 38.0
The 49ers playoff hopes took a hit last week in their 13-24 loss to the Raiders in Oakland and now at 7-6 are projected to be the 8th seed and in desperate need of a win in this game. They were somewhat understandably flat last week against non-conference Oakland as a big favorite and in between games against dreaded division rival Seattle. They are now clearly in red alert mode and Harbaugh has historically been good in these sorts of spots with a 4-1 SU and ATS record as an away dog of greater than 4 points. Harbaugh is also 4-0 SU and ATS in games off two consecutive losses, including wins over the Eagles and Saints earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been playing well but may be a bit overconfident in this game. They are coming off of consecutive dominant defensive performances against the Eagles and the 49ers and have a primetime matchup with the division leading Cardinals in Arizona on Sunday night next week. This is another classic buy low and sell high opportunity as everyone is sky high on Seattle while having given up on the 49ers. I expect an excellent effort from San Francisco and 10 points is just too much to pass up in this spot in what my numbers project will be another low scoring game. San Francisco qualifies in a good 117-65-6 bounce back trend as well as a 500-413-16 turnover based situation and with a good spot and I’ll take the 49ers +10 -115 for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Dallas (+3.5 -125) 30 PHILADELPHIA 26
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 331 Over/Under 55.0
In a game for the lead in the NFC East, the Cowboys travel to face a Philadelphia team that dismantled them in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day but that loss may have served the Cowboys well in this game. Looking for revenge after being dominated along both lines, the Cowboys have had a chance to see Chip Kelly’s offense up close and should be better prepared to attack Mark Sanchez and exploit his weaknesses. They also have seen how the Eagles defense wants to attack their offense and should benefit from making some adjustments. Last week against the Seahawks, Philly was dominated on both lines as Seattle rolled up a 442 yard at 5.3 yppl to 139 yard at 3.1 yppl advantage. Seattle controlled the game and ran 85 plays, 40 more than the Eagles’ 45. The Philly defense could be a bit fatigued after a physical game and will be facing a motivated Dallas offensive line that will look to pound Philly with a rushing attack that averages 150 yards at 5.0 ypr. In addition, the Cowboys are well rested having played last Thursday night in an easy 41-28 win in Chicago.
While Sanchez has been mediocre since taking over for Nick Foles, Romo has been having another very good season and despite his back injury is currently rated #3 in Total QBR. He had a bad game against the Eagles last time out and I expect a much better performance from him this time around. In that game he decided not to take a painkilling shot and he was clearly not himself. He bounced back with a strong effort (80.7% completion rate and 7.5 yps with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions) last week and I expect another solid outing from him this week.
The Cowboys qualify in a good 141-68-7 statistical match up situation and my model only favors the Eagles by 1.3 points. Dallas has played well on the road this season (6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS) and with situation, value and a revenge spot all lining up on the Cowboys, I’ll take Dallas +3.5 -125 for 2-stars down to +3 -120.
I'm adding three Best Bets below and barring any significant line moves that will be it for this week.
I'm adding:
(319)**Washington +7 (-120)
(329)**San Francisco +10 (-115)
(331)**Dallas +3.5 (-125)
Previously sent:
(305)***Oakland +10.5 (-115)
Good luck.
NFL Analysis by Mike O'Connor
***Oakland (+10.5 -115) 20 KANSAS CITY 21
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 305 Over/Under 41.5
With three straight losses the Chiefs find themselves on the outside looking in at the playoffs and will likely need to win out for a wild-card spot. It won’t be easy getting the first of those wins against a Raiders team that began the Chiefs three game slide with a 24-20 victory in Oakland a few weeks ago. The Raiders have improved recently, winning two of their last three and last week beat the 49ers 24-13 in a game that they dominated (330 total yards at 5.5 yppl to 248 yards at 4.4 yppl for the 49ers). Quarterback Derek Carr has improved and a running game led by running back Latavius Murray has shown some explosiveness recently (265 rushing yards at 6.5 ypr). This is a rivalry game and the Raiders know that they can beat Kansas City so I expect a strong performance against a limited Chiefs team that has trouble stopping the run (136 yards allowed at 5.0 ypr against teams that gain 109 yards at 4.3 ypr) and has no downfield passing attack to speak of (averaging 191 passing yards at 5.8 yps against teams that allow 229 yards at 6.1 yps). This is too many points to give as my model predicts a 8.2 point Kansas City win and the Raiders qualify in a 500-414-16 turnover based situation as well as a 404-338-13 divisional match up spot. I’ll take Oakland +10.5 (-115) for 3-stars down to +10 and for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Washington (+7 -120) 26 NY GIANTS 24
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 10:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 319 Over/Under 47.0
From a yppl perspective the Redskins actually look like a just below average team as they have gained 357 total yards at 5.7 yppl against teams that allow 354 yards at 5.6 yppl on offense while allowing 343 yards at 5.8 yppl to teams that gain 343 yards at 5.5 yppl defensively. Their problems have stemmed from their terrible third down offense (#30) and their below average third down defense (9th worst). Meanwhile, the Giants have been just the opposite with adjusted yppl stats that are well below average - gaining 348 total yards at 5.2 yppl against teams that allow 352 yards at 5.6 yppl on offense while allowing 371 yards at 6.1 yppl to teams that gain 357 yards at 5.7 yppl defensively. However, they have been very good in their third down offense (#8) and their third down defense (6th best). I’m banking on some regression to the mean in this game in those categories and that has me leaning the Redskins way. Washington also qualifies in a 13-1-2 situation that plays on certain teams off of a shutout loss while benefitting from a negative 111-199-8 situation that plays against the Giants. My model likes the Redskins in this game quite a bit as well (-.4 points) and with these teams off divergent results (the Giants with a 36-7 win versus Tennessee and the Redskins off the 0-24 shutout) I’ll take the clearly contrarian route in this one and take the Redskins +7 -120 for 2-stars down to +6.
**San Francisco (+10 -115) 17 SEATTLE 18
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 01:25 PM Pacific Rotation: 329 Over/Under 38.0
The 49ers playoff hopes took a hit last week in their 13-24 loss to the Raiders in Oakland and now at 7-6 are projected to be the 8th seed and in desperate need of a win in this game. They were somewhat understandably flat last week against non-conference Oakland as a big favorite and in between games against dreaded division rival Seattle. They are now clearly in red alert mode and Harbaugh has historically been good in these sorts of spots with a 4-1 SU and ATS record as an away dog of greater than 4 points. Harbaugh is also 4-0 SU and ATS in games off two consecutive losses, including wins over the Eagles and Saints earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been playing well but may be a bit overconfident in this game. They are coming off of consecutive dominant defensive performances against the Eagles and the 49ers and have a primetime matchup with the division leading Cardinals in Arizona on Sunday night next week. This is another classic buy low and sell high opportunity as everyone is sky high on Seattle while having given up on the 49ers. I expect an excellent effort from San Francisco and 10 points is just too much to pass up in this spot in what my numbers project will be another low scoring game. San Francisco qualifies in a good 117-65-6 bounce back trend as well as a 500-413-16 turnover based situation and with a good spot and I’ll take the 49ers +10 -115 for 2-stars down to +8.5.
**Dallas (+3.5 -125) 30 PHILADELPHIA 26
Sun Dec-14-2014 at 05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 331 Over/Under 55.0
In a game for the lead in the NFC East, the Cowboys travel to face a Philadelphia team that dismantled them in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day but that loss may have served the Cowboys well in this game. Looking for revenge after being dominated along both lines, the Cowboys have had a chance to see Chip Kelly’s offense up close and should be better prepared to attack Mark Sanchez and exploit his weaknesses. They also have seen how the Eagles defense wants to attack their offense and should benefit from making some adjustments. Last week against the Seahawks, Philly was dominated on both lines as Seattle rolled up a 442 yard at 5.3 yppl to 139 yard at 3.1 yppl advantage. Seattle controlled the game and ran 85 plays, 40 more than the Eagles’ 45. The Philly defense could be a bit fatigued after a physical game and will be facing a motivated Dallas offensive line that will look to pound Philly with a rushing attack that averages 150 yards at 5.0 ypr. In addition, the Cowboys are well rested having played last Thursday night in an easy 41-28 win in Chicago.
While Sanchez has been mediocre since taking over for Nick Foles, Romo has been having another very good season and despite his back injury is currently rated #3 in Total QBR. He had a bad game against the Eagles last time out and I expect a much better performance from him this time around. In that game he decided not to take a painkilling shot and he was clearly not himself. He bounced back with a strong effort (80.7% completion rate and 7.5 yps with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions) last week and I expect another solid outing from him this week.
The Cowboys qualify in a good 141-68-7 statistical match up situation and my model only favors the Eagles by 1.3 points. Dallas has played well on the road this season (6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS) and with situation, value and a revenge spot all lining up on the Cowboys, I’ll take Dallas +3.5 -125 for 2-stars down to +3 -120.
