People like you is why I post very little now. Why should I pay and people like you just continue to leech? Very few quality contributors left on this site. Its basically CPAW doing everything now. You say you will get it where everyone else does. You mean you will go scour all the forums on the web until someone posts it for you. Some of us actually buy it. If we didnt there would be nothing in any forum.
[h=1] Dr. Bob[/h][h=3]**KENTUCKY (-12 ½) over North Carolina[/h]09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 520
Kentucky beat Kanas by 32 and they beat highly ranked Texas by 12 points despite shooting poorly (8.3% from 3-point range). The Wildcats get another test today from North Carolina but the Tarheels have been relatively better against bad teams and have struggled against good defensive teams, losing to both Butler and Iowa (although they did beat Florida). Kentucky is beating their opponents by an average of 30 points despite playing their games at a slower than average pace. North Carolina is a fast paced team and the Tarheels are not doing themselves any favors by adding possessions to a game against a superior team. Kentucky’s average game rating would be 2.7 points higher if they played their games at the expected pace of this game. My pace adjusted ratings favor Kentucky by 13 points and that doesn’t take into account North Carolina’s relatively worse play against better teams. The Tarheels also apply to negative 33-113-4 ATS road underdog situation that plays against high scoring teams when facing a good defensive team. Kentucky, meanwhile, applies to a 139-69-4 ATS non-conference home favorite revenge situation and I don’t see the Wildcats having any problem getting revenge for last year’s 77-82 loss in Chapel Hill. The injury to Kentucky F Alex Poythress is unfortunate but the Wildcats are the deepest team in the nation and while his shot blocking may be missed a little (there are plenty of good shot blockers on the team) the offense will be better off (38% shooting). I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less, for 3-Stars at -12 or less, and for 1-Star at -13 ½ points.
[h=3]**Opinion – Golden State (-1) over DALLAS[/h]11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 501
Golden State continues to play at a high level, even without big man Andrew Bogut, and my ratings favor the Warriors by 3 points in this game without their starting center. Dallas doesn’t play as well at home as they do on the road and the Warriors have been great on the road, going 11-1 straight up and 9-3 ATS with wins at Portland and Chicago. I’ll lean with Golden State minus the small number.
[h=3]**BOWLING GREEN (-3 ½) over Cleveland State[/h]01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 540
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS and the Falcons still appear to be underrated based on the line on this game. The Falcons have played better than Cleveland State has so far this season and using this year’s games only would favor Bowling Green by 5 points. Cleveland State should be a bit better with G Charlie Lee back in the lineup (although they’re just 1-1 in his 2 games), but I would still favor Bowling Green by 4 points and Cleveland State applies to a very negative 16-66-2 ATS non-conference road underdog situation. I’ll take Bowling Green in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
[h=3]***Michigan (+12) over ARIZONA[/h]02:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 520
It’s been a tough week for Michigan, who suffered a shocking home loss to NJIT as a 24 point favorite last Saturday and then followed that up with a 42-45 home loss as a 14 ½ point favorite against Eastern Michigan on Wednesday. The good news for us is that those losses have supplied us with line value in favor of the Wolverines, who apply to a very good 211-93-9 ATS situation that plays on double-digit dogs coming off two horrible performances (relative to their normal performance level). Michigan is also 22-5 ATS as an underdog after a loss, so John Beilein’s team has a history of bouncing back from losses. Michigan has beaten Oregon and Syracuse and they lost by just 5 points to a Villanova team that rates higher the Arizona does – so the Wolverines have shown that they’re more than capable of competing with good teams. Michigan’s strength is their 3-point shooting (38.2%) and their weakness is their defense of the 3-point arc (38.0% allowed). That profile matches up well against an Arizona team that is good overall defensively but ranks 201st in the nation in 3-point defense and the Wildcats don’t take a lot of 3-point shots on offense. My ratings, using this year’s games only, favor Arizona by just 9 ½ points, so we have line value to go along with a very strong situation. I’ll take Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +10.
Kentucky beat Kanas by 32 and they beat highly ranked Texas by 12 points despite shooting poorly (8.3% from 3-point range). The Wildcats get another test today from North Carolina but the Tarheels have been relatively better against bad teams and have struggled against good defensive teams, losing to both Butler and Iowa (although they did beat Florida). Kentucky is beating their opponents by an average of 30 points despite playing their games at a slower than average pace. North Carolina is a fast paced team and the Tarheels are not doing themselves any favors by adding possessions to a game against a superior team. Kentucky’s average game rating would be 2.7 points higher if they played their games at the expected pace of this game. My pace adjusted ratings favor Kentucky by 13 points and that doesn’t take into account North Carolina’s relatively worse play against better teams. The Tarheels also apply to negative 33-113-4 ATS road underdog situation that plays against high scoring teams when facing a good defensive team. Kentucky, meanwhile, applies to a 139-69-4 ATS non-conference home favorite revenge situation and I don’t see the Wildcats having any problem getting revenge for last year’s 77-82 loss in Chapel Hill. The injury to Kentucky F Alex Poythress is unfortunate but the Wildcats are the deepest team in the nation and while his shot blocking may be missed a little (there are plenty of good shot blockers on the team) the offense will be better off (38% shooting). I’ll take Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 points or less, for 3-Stars at -12 or less, and for 1-Star at -13 ½ points.
[h=3]**Opinion – Golden State (-1) over DALLAS[/h]11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 501
Golden State continues to play at a high level, even without big man Andrew Bogut, and my ratings favor the Warriors by 3 points in this game without their starting center. Dallas doesn’t play as well at home as they do on the road and the Warriors have been great on the road, going 11-1 straight up and 9-3 ATS with wins at Portland and Chicago. I’ll lean with Golden State minus the small number.
[h=3]**BOWLING GREEN (-3 ½) over Cleveland State[/h]01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 540
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS and the Falcons still appear to be underrated based on the line on this game. The Falcons have played better than Cleveland State has so far this season and using this year’s games only would favor Bowling Green by 5 points. Cleveland State should be a bit better with G Charlie Lee back in the lineup (although they’re just 1-1 in his 2 games), but I would still favor Bowling Green by 4 points and Cleveland State applies to a very negative 16-66-2 ATS non-conference road underdog situation. I’ll take Bowling Green in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.
[h=3]***Michigan (+12) over ARIZONA[/h]02:15 PM Pacific Rotation: 520
It’s been a tough week for Michigan, who suffered a shocking home loss to NJIT as a 24 point favorite last Saturday and then followed that up with a 42-45 home loss as a 14 ½ point favorite against Eastern Michigan on Wednesday. The good news for us is that those losses have supplied us with line value in favor of the Wolverines, who apply to a very good 211-93-9 ATS situation that plays on double-digit dogs coming off two horrible performances (relative to their normal performance level). Michigan is also 22-5 ATS as an underdog after a loss, so John Beilein’s team has a history of bouncing back from losses. Michigan has beaten Oregon and Syracuse and they lost by just 5 points to a Villanova team that rates higher the Arizona does – so the Wolverines have shown that they’re more than capable of competing with good teams. Michigan’s strength is their 3-point shooting (38.2%) and their weakness is their defense of the 3-point arc (38.0% allowed). That profile matches up well against an Arizona team that is good overall defensively but ranks 201st in the nation in 3-point defense and the Wildcats don’t take a lot of 3-point shots on offense. My ratings, using this year’s games only, favor Arizona by just 9 ½ points, so we have line value to go along with a very strong situation. I’ll take Michigan in a 3-Star Best Bet at +11 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +10.
