Sportswagers
Gonzaga @ UCLA
#579 Gonzaga -4½ -106 over UCLA
10:00 PM EST. When UCLA hired Steve Alford away from New Mexico at the end 2012 season to replace the fired Ben Howland, there was plenty of dismay in and around Pauley Pavilion. First was the simple fact that the new hire’s name wasn’t Brad Stevens or Shaka Smart. Then there was the style-of-play narrative that developed soon after the Alford hire. Athletic director Dan Guerrero trumpeted the hire as a coach who would bring up-tempo basketball back to Los Angeles, a place that craves the “Showtime” style as much as it craves wins. Pundits across the nation cried foul. It was pointed out that in the past 11 seasons, Alford’s teams had ranked in the top 100 in the nation in adjusted tempo exactly once and that his most recent team at New Mexico had won 29 games, but was a slow-paced, defense-first team, not to mention one that couldn’t buy a shot. In his first year, Alford silenced the critics with a 26-8 record and a run all the way to the Sweet-16 before being knocked out by the #1 seed, Florida. The Bruins are 8-2 this season and right now everything is rosy but it’s about to come crashing down. Alford was fortunate last year in that he had a ton of talent to work with. This year that talent is no longer with the team. Small forward, 18 points per game scorer Jordan Adams, athletic specimen Zach LaVine and David and Travis Wear provided a nice foundation. None of those five are back and not only is that a ton of minutes lost, it’s also most of Bruins scoring. When you play up-temp basketball, you need scorers and the Bruins sorely lack in that area. All of UCLA’s eight wins have come against pure cupcakes (Montana State, Coastal Carolina, Nicholls State, Long Beach State, UAB, Cal State Fullerton, San Diego and UC Riverside). How bad are some of those teams that UCLA defeated this season? Well, Nicholls State is a 36½-point underdog today to Wisconsin and they might not be the worst in that group. The Bruins are young, inexperienced and at times are searching for someone to save them. The Bruins two losses this year came against Oklahoma by 10 and to North Carolina by 22. That loss to the Tar Heels is a flattering score to the Bruins because it was 43-29 at the half and UNC was on cruise control the rest of the way. Gonzaga is in the same class as North Carolina.
Gonzaga, in the past, has been a team that's been hard to truly believe in as a national title contender. That should change this year. The Zags have one of the nation's best backcourts and are playing as well as any team in the country. Gonzaga’s only loss occurred against #3 Arizona in OT. They already have a bunch of solid wins over #22 SMU, St, John’s, Georgia, Washington State and a 52-point win over St. Joes. We absolutely love a quality team that schedules tough games in the early portion of the season. It builds confidence and gets them battle tested early. The Zags have passed with flying colours by shooting lights out at .528 from the floor and being ranked in the top-10 nationally in several key categories, both offensively and defensively. This is a mismatch. The Bruins are getting WAY too much credit here because A) they’re at home and B), they have a strong résumé from last year. Truth be told, Alford is out of his league here with a bad Bruins team that cannot compete with powers that be. Gonzaga is a true power that will show no mercy on this opponent and should roll to an easy double-digit victory of 15 or more.
Our Pick
#579 Gonzaga -4½ -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)
Will post the hockey later if no one else does.