NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS
Rutgers has won the L4 in this series by 27 ppg and is 10-3 as a DD favorite. PP calls for RU to
win by 25 (line 17) with a 399-223 yd edge and the Knights can clinch bowl eligibility with a win.
4★ RUTGERS 31 ARMY 6
PU HC Tiller’s last game and he is 9-2 SU in the Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. PP says PU
will win by 17 with a 460-265 yd edge and we agree.
4★ PURDUE 34 INDIANA 17
Tressel is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS vs rival Michigan. PP calls for OSU to win by 29 (line 19’) with a
385-165 yd edge and we agree.
4★ OHIO STATE 34 MICHIGAN 5
These schools are just 26 miles apart and the favorite is 5-11 ATS in this instate rivalry. PP calls
for NC to win by 16 (line 11’) with a 389-316 yd edge and we agree. NC is 2-0 SU & ATS off a SU
loss this year covering by 15 ppg.
4★ NORTH CAROLINA 31 NC STATE 15
We won a 4★ LPS on ND last week as they held back a 4Q Navy comeback attempt to win 27-21
(-4) in a gm in which they had a 24-11 FD edge. PP says ND will win by 23 with a 447-168 yd edge
and one more win probably gives ND a Gator Bowl trip.
4★ NOTRE DAME 33 SYRACUSE 10
PSU is 11-4 SU in this series and 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) in Happy Valley vs MSU with MSU’s last win
here in 1965. PP says PSU will win by 20 with a 435-230 yd edge and JoePa will earn his fi rst trip
to the Rose Bowl since 1994 with a big win here.
4★ PENN STATE 33 MICHIGAN STATE 13
TCU has held AF to over 2 ypc under their season avg the L2Y. They’ve allowed just 2.8 ypc in that
span and if you can shut down their fl exbone they don’t have many other options. Don’t forget that the
Horned Frogs are also 5-0 SU/ATS at home with an average score of 45-11. This is a Top Play.
4★ TCU 31 AIR FORCE 7
This is the fi nal gm in the Metrodome and PP is calling for Iowa to win by 8. The Hawkeyes have all’d
only 17 ppg in their three B10 road trips while Minny has lost 3 straight outright after their surprising 7-1
start. Added to the mix is the Gophers have failed to cover the L/2 at home by 23 ppg. This is a Top Play.
4★ IOWA 23 MINNESOTA 15
The attrition that the Aztecs have endured is becoming more and more obvious. This is the 10th
straight wk they’ve played and have allowed 46 ppg to conf foes. UNLV gets that huge 6th win here.
4★ UNLV 43 SAN DIEGO STATE 23
While the yards favor LSU they’ve had trouble scoring which is very obvious in the forecast. LSU
is 0-6 ATS at home, while Ole Miss is 3-0 as an AF incl an upset of Florida. This is an easy 4★.
4★ MISSISSIPPI 29 LSU 27
The yardage is close with Ark St only having a 369-353 yd edge. ASU has now dropped 5 straight
ATS while FAU’s QB Smith is fi nally healthy and the Owls have produced 46 & 40 pts the L/2 gms.
4★ FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+) 23 ULM 23
The Holy War has added meaning with a BCS bowl on the line. Remember that BYU’s ONE goal was
to be in the spot the Utes are in. PP says Utah’s balanced offense outgains BYU’s more pass dominated
one by a 459-383 ttl yd margin. We picked the Utes to win the MWC and they do it here in style.
4★ UTAH 37 BYU 24
East Carolina has struggled with injuries but have still won 3 of 4 SU incl 2 in OT. That gives them
great value to fi nish this season against a UAB squad they are forecasted to be outgained 376-326.
3★ EAST CAROLINA 30 UAB 20
You know what they say about paybacks. Houston got mauled by Tulsa 59-6 in ‘07 and returned
the favor 70-30 LW. They now face a Miners squad that dominated SMU LW with a fi nal yardage
total of 544-201. UTEP’s new 3-3-5 defense was installed for spread pass offense and they have
improved 4 straight weeks going from giving up 77 to 49 to 24 and 10 pts last week.
3★ UTEP (+) 30 HOUSTON 43
The Bears have a lot going for them. They are hungry after B2B conf road losses to the top two P10
tms, are ready for revenge after LY’s season ending loss and have PP calling for a 397-293 yd edge.
2★ CALIFORNIA 32 STANFORD 21
KSU is 11-3 SU (1-3 ATS) vs ISU winning by an average of 29 ppg and the home team is 8-3
ATS in this series. KSU HC Prince is coaching his fi nal game. PP calls for KSU to win by 12 (line
10) with a 482-398 yd edge.
1★ KANSAS ST 41 IOWA STATE 29
Rutgers has won the L4 in this series by 27 ppg and is 10-3 as a DD favorite. PP calls for RU to
win by 25 (line 17) with a 399-223 yd edge and the Knights can clinch bowl eligibility with a win.
4★ RUTGERS 31 ARMY 6
PU HC Tiller’s last game and he is 9-2 SU in the Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. PP says PU
will win by 17 with a 460-265 yd edge and we agree.
4★ PURDUE 34 INDIANA 17
Tressel is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS vs rival Michigan. PP calls for OSU to win by 29 (line 19’) with a
385-165 yd edge and we agree.
4★ OHIO STATE 34 MICHIGAN 5
These schools are just 26 miles apart and the favorite is 5-11 ATS in this instate rivalry. PP calls
for NC to win by 16 (line 11’) with a 389-316 yd edge and we agree. NC is 2-0 SU & ATS off a SU
loss this year covering by 15 ppg.
4★ NORTH CAROLINA 31 NC STATE 15
We won a 4★ LPS on ND last week as they held back a 4Q Navy comeback attempt to win 27-21
(-4) in a gm in which they had a 24-11 FD edge. PP says ND will win by 23 with a 447-168 yd edge
and one more win probably gives ND a Gator Bowl trip.
4★ NOTRE DAME 33 SYRACUSE 10
PSU is 11-4 SU in this series and 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) in Happy Valley vs MSU with MSU’s last win
here in 1965. PP says PSU will win by 20 with a 435-230 yd edge and JoePa will earn his fi rst trip
to the Rose Bowl since 1994 with a big win here.
4★ PENN STATE 33 MICHIGAN STATE 13
TCU has held AF to over 2 ypc under their season avg the L2Y. They’ve allowed just 2.8 ypc in that
span and if you can shut down their fl exbone they don’t have many other options. Don’t forget that the
Horned Frogs are also 5-0 SU/ATS at home with an average score of 45-11. This is a Top Play.
4★ TCU 31 AIR FORCE 7
This is the fi nal gm in the Metrodome and PP is calling for Iowa to win by 8. The Hawkeyes have all’d
only 17 ppg in their three B10 road trips while Minny has lost 3 straight outright after their surprising 7-1
start. Added to the mix is the Gophers have failed to cover the L/2 at home by 23 ppg. This is a Top Play.
4★ IOWA 23 MINNESOTA 15
The attrition that the Aztecs have endured is becoming more and more obvious. This is the 10th
straight wk they’ve played and have allowed 46 ppg to conf foes. UNLV gets that huge 6th win here.
4★ UNLV 43 SAN DIEGO STATE 23
While the yards favor LSU they’ve had trouble scoring which is very obvious in the forecast. LSU
is 0-6 ATS at home, while Ole Miss is 3-0 as an AF incl an upset of Florida. This is an easy 4★.
4★ MISSISSIPPI 29 LSU 27
The yardage is close with Ark St only having a 369-353 yd edge. ASU has now dropped 5 straight
ATS while FAU’s QB Smith is fi nally healthy and the Owls have produced 46 & 40 pts the L/2 gms.
4★ FLORIDA ATLANTIC (+) 23 ULM 23
The Holy War has added meaning with a BCS bowl on the line. Remember that BYU’s ONE goal was
to be in the spot the Utes are in. PP says Utah’s balanced offense outgains BYU’s more pass dominated
one by a 459-383 ttl yd margin. We picked the Utes to win the MWC and they do it here in style.
4★ UTAH 37 BYU 24
East Carolina has struggled with injuries but have still won 3 of 4 SU incl 2 in OT. That gives them
great value to fi nish this season against a UAB squad they are forecasted to be outgained 376-326.
3★ EAST CAROLINA 30 UAB 20
You know what they say about paybacks. Houston got mauled by Tulsa 59-6 in ‘07 and returned
the favor 70-30 LW. They now face a Miners squad that dominated SMU LW with a fi nal yardage
total of 544-201. UTEP’s new 3-3-5 defense was installed for spread pass offense and they have
improved 4 straight weeks going from giving up 77 to 49 to 24 and 10 pts last week.
3★ UTEP (+) 30 HOUSTON 43
The Bears have a lot going for them. They are hungry after B2B conf road losses to the top two P10
tms, are ready for revenge after LY’s season ending loss and have PP calling for a 397-293 yd edge.
2★ CALIFORNIA 32 STANFORD 21
KSU is 11-3 SU (1-3 ATS) vs ISU winning by an average of 29 ppg and the home team is 8-3
ATS in this series. KSU HC Prince is coaching his fi nal game. PP calls for KSU to win by 12 (line
10) with a 482-398 yd edge.
1★ KANSAS ST 41 IOWA STATE 29
Scott Ferrall
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE SNAGS FOR SATURDAY
KANSAS STATE -10 to Iowa St--the Cyclones are 0-5 on the road
NEW MEXICO STATE +6 from Louisiana Tech--LT is 5-0 at home but 1-4 on the road. NMSU can throw it (8th in nation per game)--they both score 24 per week, so grab the number and cross your fingers
VIRGINIA TECH -17 to Duke--Hokies don't lose home games (4-0)
UAB +6.5 from East Carolina--upset here with the points
LOUISIANA MONROE +7.5 from Florida International--ULM is better in every department than FIU, including scoring per game
MINNESOTA +6 from Iowa--The Hawkeyes aren't a good road team (1-3)
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE +10.5 from Troy--I know Troy is unbeaten at home, but ULL is 8th in the country in total yards and 3rd in rushing if you can believe it--that spells--take the points
UNLV -10 to San Diego St--this spread will be close, but the Rebels are better all around. SDSU is 1-4 at home
IDAHO +23.5 from Hawaii--just too many points to give the Vandals. Idaho runs the ball well.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE SNAGS FOR SATURDAY
KANSAS STATE -10 to Iowa St--the Cyclones are 0-5 on the road
NEW MEXICO STATE +6 from Louisiana Tech--LT is 5-0 at home but 1-4 on the road. NMSU can throw it (8th in nation per game)--they both score 24 per week, so grab the number and cross your fingers
VIRGINIA TECH -17 to Duke--Hokies don't lose home games (4-0)
UAB +6.5 from East Carolina--upset here with the points
LOUISIANA MONROE +7.5 from Florida International--ULM is better in every department than FIU, including scoring per game
MINNESOTA +6 from Iowa--The Hawkeyes aren't a good road team (1-3)
LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE +10.5 from Troy--I know Troy is unbeaten at home, but ULL is 8th in the country in total yards and 3rd in rushing if you can believe it--that spells--take the points
UNLV -10 to San Diego St--this spread will be close, but the Rebels are better all around. SDSU is 1-4 at home
IDAHO +23.5 from Hawaii--just too many points to give the Vandals. Idaho runs the ball well.
LOGICAL APPROACH
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Byu + 6 over UTAH - The "Holy War" has produced some very exciting games in recent years but so much is at stake this season that anything short of another nail biter would be a surprise. Utah is 11-0 and a win all but assures the Utes a BCS Bowl bid - their second cracking of the BCS party in 5 seasons. With a win also comes the Mountain West Conference Title - an honor that can be shared by BYU if the 10-1 Cougars can pull the upset of their most bitter rival (TCU could make it a 3 way tie with a win over Air Force). BYU's lone blemish was a one sided loss at TCU in mid season and BYU played sluggishly for a few weeks afterwards before again regaining their dominating form the past few weeks. Utah needed a late TD to defeat TCU when they hosted the Horned Frogs a few weeks back in a game in which TCU far outplayed the Utes. BYU has won the last 2 against Utah and the last 3 games as well as 9 of the last 10 have been decided by a TD or less. Both teams have had stellar seasons and while Utah plays with the prospects of an unbeaten season and the BCS Bowl, BYU is motivated both by the chance to ruin their main foe's season as well as sharing a conference title and improving their Bowl bid. BYU wins 23-20.
Other Featured College Selections
Illinois - 2 ½ over NORTHWESTERN - When Northwestern is having a successful season is's a sure sign that the Big 10 overall is having a down season. And such is the case in 2008 as Northwestern is 8-3 after a win at Michigan and headed to a decent Bowl game. At 5-6 Illinois needs a win to become Bowl eligible just a season after representing the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. Illinois is the more talented team but has often played down to the level of their competition, a trait that plagued coach Ron Zook in his days as coach of Florida. But with a Bowl bid on the line, the clearly better offense and a defense the equal of Northwestern a good effort from the Illini can be expected. This has been an even series over the past decade with each team winning 5 times. Illinois ended a 4 game Northwestern winning streak last season with a 41-22 home win. Northwestern has lost 2 of their last 3 home games and did not have to face Penn State this season, a foe against whom Illinois was competitive in a 38-20 road loss. Illinois gets a solid victory, winning 34-23.
Stanford + 9 ½ over CALIFORNIA - The "Big Game" will always be remembered for the "Band Play" of a quarter century ago but there have been many entertaining and meaningful games between these rivals since and this year's game should be no exception. At 6-4 Cal is considered a disappointment given the talent on hand and reputation of coach Jeff Tedford. Stanford has continued to show progress under second year coach Jim Harbaugh and at 5-6 the Cardinal becomes Bowl eligible with an upset win here. Stanford pulled the upset last year, ending a 5 game win streak by Cal. Stanford did cover in 2 of those last 3 losses. Both teams played USC the past two weeks with both losing in what were largely competitive games despite the final scores. Cal was outgained 411-165 in a 17-3 road loss while Stanford lost at home, 45-23, while being outgained 418-367. Cal has the better defensive stats but the offensive stats are fairly even. Stanford will put forth their best effort as their regular season ends this week. Cal should not hold back as they end their season next week against lowly Washington. Stanford keeps it close as Cal wins but by just 27-23.
Mississippi + 4 ½ over LSU - Ole Miss is enjoying an expected resurgence under first year coach Houston Nutt and at 6-4 will be headed to a Bowl for the first time in 5 seasons. The Rebels have a solid QB leading the offense and rate the edge at that position over LSU. The Tigers are 7-3 following a frantic fourth quarter comeback against Troy last week, overcoming a 31-3 deficit to win 40-31. LSU has struggled more than expected all season as their lowly 2-7 ATS record shows. Their defense has been vulnerable and they suffered one sided losses to Georgia and Florida. Ole Miss upset Florida on the road 31-30 earlier this season, a sign of the progress they are making. All 4 of their losses are by a TD or less as they seek to end a 6 game losing streak to LSU. Their last 3 losses on this field have been by 3, 3 and 1 point. The teams are very similar statistically. Ole Miss is tied for our third most improved team this season and enters this game having won 3 straight. This is their best chance in years to pull the upset over an underachieving LSU team that has not looked even in several of their wins. Mississippi pulls the upset, winning 31-27.
Money Line Recommendations College:
Buffalo
OHIO U
Byu
Mississippi
COLLEGE SELECTION OF THE WEEK: Byu + 6 over UTAH - The "Holy War" has produced some very exciting games in recent years but so much is at stake this season that anything short of another nail biter would be a surprise. Utah is 11-0 and a win all but assures the Utes a BCS Bowl bid - their second cracking of the BCS party in 5 seasons. With a win also comes the Mountain West Conference Title - an honor that can be shared by BYU if the 10-1 Cougars can pull the upset of their most bitter rival (TCU could make it a 3 way tie with a win over Air Force). BYU's lone blemish was a one sided loss at TCU in mid season and BYU played sluggishly for a few weeks afterwards before again regaining their dominating form the past few weeks. Utah needed a late TD to defeat TCU when they hosted the Horned Frogs a few weeks back in a game in which TCU far outplayed the Utes. BYU has won the last 2 against Utah and the last 3 games as well as 9 of the last 10 have been decided by a TD or less. Both teams have had stellar seasons and while Utah plays with the prospects of an unbeaten season and the BCS Bowl, BYU is motivated both by the chance to ruin their main foe's season as well as sharing a conference title and improving their Bowl bid. BYU wins 23-20.
Other Featured College Selections
Illinois - 2 ½ over NORTHWESTERN - When Northwestern is having a successful season is's a sure sign that the Big 10 overall is having a down season. And such is the case in 2008 as Northwestern is 8-3 after a win at Michigan and headed to a decent Bowl game. At 5-6 Illinois needs a win to become Bowl eligible just a season after representing the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. Illinois is the more talented team but has often played down to the level of their competition, a trait that plagued coach Ron Zook in his days as coach of Florida. But with a Bowl bid on the line, the clearly better offense and a defense the equal of Northwestern a good effort from the Illini can be expected. This has been an even series over the past decade with each team winning 5 times. Illinois ended a 4 game Northwestern winning streak last season with a 41-22 home win. Northwestern has lost 2 of their last 3 home games and did not have to face Penn State this season, a foe against whom Illinois was competitive in a 38-20 road loss. Illinois gets a solid victory, winning 34-23.
Stanford + 9 ½ over CALIFORNIA - The "Big Game" will always be remembered for the "Band Play" of a quarter century ago but there have been many entertaining and meaningful games between these rivals since and this year's game should be no exception. At 6-4 Cal is considered a disappointment given the talent on hand and reputation of coach Jeff Tedford. Stanford has continued to show progress under second year coach Jim Harbaugh and at 5-6 the Cardinal becomes Bowl eligible with an upset win here. Stanford pulled the upset last year, ending a 5 game win streak by Cal. Stanford did cover in 2 of those last 3 losses. Both teams played USC the past two weeks with both losing in what were largely competitive games despite the final scores. Cal was outgained 411-165 in a 17-3 road loss while Stanford lost at home, 45-23, while being outgained 418-367. Cal has the better defensive stats but the offensive stats are fairly even. Stanford will put forth their best effort as their regular season ends this week. Cal should not hold back as they end their season next week against lowly Washington. Stanford keeps it close as Cal wins but by just 27-23.
Mississippi + 4 ½ over LSU - Ole Miss is enjoying an expected resurgence under first year coach Houston Nutt and at 6-4 will be headed to a Bowl for the first time in 5 seasons. The Rebels have a solid QB leading the offense and rate the edge at that position over LSU. The Tigers are 7-3 following a frantic fourth quarter comeback against Troy last week, overcoming a 31-3 deficit to win 40-31. LSU has struggled more than expected all season as their lowly 2-7 ATS record shows. Their defense has been vulnerable and they suffered one sided losses to Georgia and Florida. Ole Miss upset Florida on the road 31-30 earlier this season, a sign of the progress they are making. All 4 of their losses are by a TD or less as they seek to end a 6 game losing streak to LSU. Their last 3 losses on this field have been by 3, 3 and 1 point. The teams are very similar statistically. Ole Miss is tied for our third most improved team this season and enters this game having won 3 straight. This is their best chance in years to pull the upset over an underachieving LSU team that has not looked even in several of their wins. Mississippi pulls the upset, winning 31-27.
Money Line Recommendations College:
Buffalo
OHIO U
Byu
Mississippi
CKO
11 CONNECTICUT over *South Florida
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 31 - *South Florida 20
(Sunday, November 23)
Connecticut isn’t getting nearly the respect it deserves. The Huskies offense boasts the country’s leading rusher
in Donald Brown (1537 YR, 5.6 ypc, 16 touchdowns), and the attack should be more productive now that starting
sr. QB Tyler Lorenzen has returned from injury (started last week at Syracuse after missing 4 games). UConn is
15-4 SU with Lorenzen at the controls. But the Huskies also have an underrated defense, which ranks 9th in the
country in pass efficiency defense, 19th in scoring “D,” and allows just 3.6 ypc. After a sparkling 5-0 start,
disappointing South Florida has dropped 4 of last 5. In the last 3 games (all SU & spread losses) USF QB Matt
Grothe has thrown 8 ints., not out of character for Grothe considering his career 39 int./38 TD pass mark against
BCS teams. UConn picked off Grothe twice in last season’s game, as the Huskies won despite Brown getting just
1 carry (Andre Dixon rushed for 167 yards for the Huskies in that rainy affair).
10 ARKANSAS over *Mississippi State
Late Score Forecast:
ARKANSAS 24 - *Mississippi State 13
Long-time SEC scouts report disappointed MSU players not easily regaining focus and intensity in early practices
for Arkansas, following all-out, bowl-eliminating loss vs Bama, coupled with “Egg Bowl” rival Ole Miss on deck.
And scouts seriously doubt Bulldogs heavily-criticized Gulf Coast attack (just 14 ppg) suddenly erupts vs.
ripening and refreshed Arkansas defense (off needed bye week) getting solid interior play from mammoth 6-3, 305
sr. NT Mitchell & 6-3, 289 DT Sheppard (10 TFL, 4.5 sacks). That’s an unfavorable scenario for MSU’s limited QB
Lee (only 139 ypg passing, 5 TDP), ill-supported by sagging ground game mustering 147 YR in last 3 SEC games.
On other hand, Hogs multi-tasking, speedy RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 150 all-purpose ypg) continues to roll vs.
Bulldogs thinning front 7 (DT Bowman joins MLB Chaney on sidelines with season-ending injury). And battletested
sr. QB C. Dick licking his chops after career-best 14 of 17 for 199 yds. & 4 TDP in 45-31 series victory LY.
So, good bet bowl-seeking Arkansas captures 10th straight in series in Starkville, where MSU is only 6-14 SU vs.
major foes since ‘05.
10 *NOTRE DAME over Syracuse
Late Score Forecast:
*NOTRE DAME 41 - Syracuse 10
The fact Syracuse finally hit the eject button on HC Greg Robinson after last week’s loss to UConn merely confirms
one of the worst-kept secrets in college football. And it hardly presages an emotional Orange effort for its
departing coach, as the team rarely rallied for Robinson and his staff when it might have been able to help save
their jobs earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Charlie Weis not likely to bypass a chance to build some goodwill with a
growing legion of disgruntled Domers. So no surprise if Notre Dame “O” goes full throttle, expanding upon
emboldened infantry that Weis finally unleashed vs. Navy, while capable Irish “D” throttles a Cuse attack that can’t
get out of its own way (QBs Dantley & Robinson a combined 11 of 42 passing for 86 YP and sacked 10 times in
last 2 games...really!).
10 BYU over *Utah
Late Score Forecast:
BYU 27 - *Utah 24
Yes, 11-0 Utah is fighting for an undefeated season and a berth in one of the BCS bowls. Too bad that will make
their bitter rivals to the south all the more eager to upset the Utes’ applecart. The underdog is 8-2 the last ten
meetings in this classic rivalry series. And the Cougars have the veteran QBing in Max Hall and enough balance
on offense to keep Utah nervous all afternoon, and even to spring the upset. Note that Utah’s schedule has been
surprisingly lenient TY, with Michigan a mere shadow of its former self. In their home games vs. Oregon State and
TCU, the Utes won by only three points each time—vs. the Beavers on last-second FG, and vs. the Horned Frogs
on a last minute-TD after TCU missed two FGs in the fourth quarter. No surprise if this is another nail-biter, nor a
win by the 10-1 Cougars.
10* KANSAS CITY over Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 27 - Buffalo 19
(Sunday, November 23)
Now that Larry Johnson, Kansas City’s hammering RB (67 YR in his first game in four weeks vs. New Orleans last
Sunday) is back in action to keep defenses honest, value lies with the Chiefs, whose youngsters have spent
much of the early part of the season learning the ropes. Now, with 10 games under their belts, they should have
the edge over visiting Buffalo, traveling on short rest after Monday Night Football and suffering from some attrition
on defense. Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is now playing with confidence, hitting 60% with 8 TDs vs. only 1
interception in a four-game stretch. Coach Herm Edwards has adapted the offense to the mobility of Thigpen, who
has helped Chiefs earn three covers their last four games
TOTALS:
UNDER (42) in the New England-Miami game—The Dolphins can’t count on surprising Bill Belichick twice in a row with their “Wildcat” formation;
Miami 5-1 “under” at home; UNDER (42) in the Carolina-Atlanta game—Panthers’ defense very solid; both teams prefer the power run in order to control the ball.
NINE-RATED GAMES:
CINCINNATI (+10) at Pittsburgh (Thursday)—Bengals have jelled (such as they can) well enough to fully stress the laboring
Steelers...
RUTGERS (-17) vs. Army—Scarlet Knights know how to stop the option, can become bowl eligible here, and have exploded on offense to cover
five straight...
PURDUE (-13) vs. Indiana—Last game for Joe Tiller & Curtis Painter catches Hoosier defense in distress...
MINNESOTA (+5) vs. Iowa—
Vastly-improved Gopher defense should make life miserable for shaky Iowa QBs...
HAWAII (-23) vs. Idaho—Defensively-superior UH has had extra rest,
while Vandals taking long trip after all-out effort vs. hated Boise
11 CONNECTICUT over *South Florida
Late Score Forecast:
CONNECTICUT 31 - *South Florida 20
(Sunday, November 23)
Connecticut isn’t getting nearly the respect it deserves. The Huskies offense boasts the country’s leading rusher
in Donald Brown (1537 YR, 5.6 ypc, 16 touchdowns), and the attack should be more productive now that starting
sr. QB Tyler Lorenzen has returned from injury (started last week at Syracuse after missing 4 games). UConn is
15-4 SU with Lorenzen at the controls. But the Huskies also have an underrated defense, which ranks 9th in the
country in pass efficiency defense, 19th in scoring “D,” and allows just 3.6 ypc. After a sparkling 5-0 start,
disappointing South Florida has dropped 4 of last 5. In the last 3 games (all SU & spread losses) USF QB Matt
Grothe has thrown 8 ints., not out of character for Grothe considering his career 39 int./38 TD pass mark against
BCS teams. UConn picked off Grothe twice in last season’s game, as the Huskies won despite Brown getting just
1 carry (Andre Dixon rushed for 167 yards for the Huskies in that rainy affair).
10 ARKANSAS over *Mississippi State
Late Score Forecast:
ARKANSAS 24 - *Mississippi State 13
Long-time SEC scouts report disappointed MSU players not easily regaining focus and intensity in early practices
for Arkansas, following all-out, bowl-eliminating loss vs Bama, coupled with “Egg Bowl” rival Ole Miss on deck.
And scouts seriously doubt Bulldogs heavily-criticized Gulf Coast attack (just 14 ppg) suddenly erupts vs.
ripening and refreshed Arkansas defense (off needed bye week) getting solid interior play from mammoth 6-3, 305
sr. NT Mitchell & 6-3, 289 DT Sheppard (10 TFL, 4.5 sacks). That’s an unfavorable scenario for MSU’s limited QB
Lee (only 139 ypg passing, 5 TDP), ill-supported by sagging ground game mustering 147 YR in last 3 SEC games.
On other hand, Hogs multi-tasking, speedy RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 150 all-purpose ypg) continues to roll vs.
Bulldogs thinning front 7 (DT Bowman joins MLB Chaney on sidelines with season-ending injury). And battletested
sr. QB C. Dick licking his chops after career-best 14 of 17 for 199 yds. & 4 TDP in 45-31 series victory LY.
So, good bet bowl-seeking Arkansas captures 10th straight in series in Starkville, where MSU is only 6-14 SU vs.
major foes since ‘05.
10 *NOTRE DAME over Syracuse
Late Score Forecast:
*NOTRE DAME 41 - Syracuse 10
The fact Syracuse finally hit the eject button on HC Greg Robinson after last week’s loss to UConn merely confirms
one of the worst-kept secrets in college football. And it hardly presages an emotional Orange effort for its
departing coach, as the team rarely rallied for Robinson and his staff when it might have been able to help save
their jobs earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Charlie Weis not likely to bypass a chance to build some goodwill with a
growing legion of disgruntled Domers. So no surprise if Notre Dame “O” goes full throttle, expanding upon
emboldened infantry that Weis finally unleashed vs. Navy, while capable Irish “D” throttles a Cuse attack that can’t
get out of its own way (QBs Dantley & Robinson a combined 11 of 42 passing for 86 YP and sacked 10 times in
last 2 games...really!).
10 BYU over *Utah
Late Score Forecast:
BYU 27 - *Utah 24
Yes, 11-0 Utah is fighting for an undefeated season and a berth in one of the BCS bowls. Too bad that will make
their bitter rivals to the south all the more eager to upset the Utes’ applecart. The underdog is 8-2 the last ten
meetings in this classic rivalry series. And the Cougars have the veteran QBing in Max Hall and enough balance
on offense to keep Utah nervous all afternoon, and even to spring the upset. Note that Utah’s schedule has been
surprisingly lenient TY, with Michigan a mere shadow of its former self. In their home games vs. Oregon State and
TCU, the Utes won by only three points each time—vs. the Beavers on last-second FG, and vs. the Horned Frogs
on a last minute-TD after TCU missed two FGs in the fourth quarter. No surprise if this is another nail-biter, nor a
win by the 10-1 Cougars.
10* KANSAS CITY over Buffalo
Late Score Forecast:
*KANSAS CITY 27 - Buffalo 19
(Sunday, November 23)
Now that Larry Johnson, Kansas City’s hammering RB (67 YR in his first game in four weeks vs. New Orleans last
Sunday) is back in action to keep defenses honest, value lies with the Chiefs, whose youngsters have spent
much of the early part of the season learning the ropes. Now, with 10 games under their belts, they should have
the edge over visiting Buffalo, traveling on short rest after Monday Night Football and suffering from some attrition
on defense. Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is now playing with confidence, hitting 60% with 8 TDs vs. only 1
interception in a four-game stretch. Coach Herm Edwards has adapted the offense to the mobility of Thigpen, who
has helped Chiefs earn three covers their last four games
TOTALS:
UNDER (42) in the New England-Miami game—The Dolphins can’t count on surprising Bill Belichick twice in a row with their “Wildcat” formation;
Miami 5-1 “under” at home; UNDER (42) in the Carolina-Atlanta game—Panthers’ defense very solid; both teams prefer the power run in order to control the ball.
NINE-RATED GAMES:
CINCINNATI (+10) at Pittsburgh (Thursday)—Bengals have jelled (such as they can) well enough to fully stress the laboring
Steelers...
RUTGERS (-17) vs. Army—Scarlet Knights know how to stop the option, can become bowl eligible here, and have exploded on offense to cover
five straight...
PURDUE (-13) vs. Indiana—Last game for Joe Tiller & Curtis Painter catches Hoosier defense in distress...
MINNESOTA (+5) vs. Iowa—
Vastly-improved Gopher defense should make life miserable for shaky Iowa QBs...
HAWAII (-23) vs. Idaho—Defensively-superior UH has had extra rest,
while Vandals taking long trip after all-out effort vs. hated Boise
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any undefeated
conference road team from Game Ten
out that allows more than 10 PPG
versus an opponent with revenge off
a win if the opponent was favored by
35 or less points in its last game
Play Against:
TEXAS TECH
ATS W-L Record Since 1980 :16-2(89%)
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Since 1983, the Tennessee Volunteers are 24-1 SU versus Vanderbilt, favored in all twenty-five games.
SAYONARA
The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams
in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially
holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these ‘value
laden’ criteria:
a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season fi nale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent’s win percentage is .444 < this season
By combining all the factors above our ‘see ya later’ sad sacks are a nifty
36-21-1 ATS since 1980. There are two qualifying ‘Sayonara’ teams on this
season’s schedule: UNLV this week and UAB next Saturday.
By simply going up against a foe that allows 27.5 > PPG, and making sure
we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 19-7-1 ATS. And by making
sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we
ratchet our record up to 19-4-1 ATS. UNLV qualifi es this week.
While neither the Rebels nor the Blazers will be bowling this season,
this year’s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year’s
editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making
statement to that effect
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Fla Atlantic over ARKANSAS ST by 7
Both the Owls and the Red Wolves trail Sun Belt Conference co-leaders
Troy and La Lafayette by one game for the top spot, thus making this a
pivotal game for post-season honors. And in gauging the current form
of both squads we feel the wrong team is favored. After a 0-4 start,
FAU has the look of a runaway freight train, winning each of its last
four games. Meanwhile, ASU has dropped 4 of its last 5 contests after
opening the campaign with wins in 3 of its fi rst 4 games. The history
book comes to our support, too, with the Owls 6-2 ATS as single-digit
conference road dogs while the felines are just 1-6 ATS when playing
with extra zzz’s. Howie Longname’s troops are dialed in to landing a
bowl bid and become bowl-eligible with a win here today. Beware of
the Owl.
5* BEST BET
TCU over Air Force by 31
Better get the rescue crews on standby because this looks like a fullfl
edged aerial disaster waiting to happen. The Fort Worth Frogs are
majorly pissed about letting Utah off the hook in a game where TCU
won everywhere but the scoreboard, eventually losing 13-10 in the
closing minutes at Salt Lake City. The Horned Ones have had two weeks
to stew over what might have been and will bring their ‘A’ game today
against what fi gures to be an exhausted Air Force squad. The Flyboys
left it all on the fi eld last Saturday against BYU, trading blows with
the superior Cougars until they faded in the fourth quarter. Now the
Falcons must close out the season on the road where they’ll bear more
than a slight resemblance to the cattle waiting to be slaughtered at the
Forth Worth stockyards. The Force made the big mistake of upsetting
TCU in’07 as 8.5-point home dogs and our database informs us that
the Falcons are an awful 1-17 ATS when they lose SU off a SUATS loss
versus an avenging foe. And make no mistake about it, Air Force WILL
lose this game. The Froggies have held 10 of 11 foes to season low – or
2nd low – yards this year and the nation’s best rush defense (just 39
YPG) fi gures to stymie the Flyboys’ only form of attack. TCU has cashed
in 4 of the 5 most recent series meetings and own an identical 4-1 ATS
record in Last Home Games. Look for Gary Patterson’s Frogs to reach
the 10-win plateau for the third time in the last four years with a notso-
Christian destruction of the fading jet jockeys
4 BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech by 17
It’s put up or shut up time for the new kids on the BCS block and Texas
Tech couldn’t have picked a worse venue to defend its #2 ranking.
When Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops leads his Sooners onto the
fi eld at Memorial Stadium this Saturday, it will mark his 61st home
game with OU. Stoops’ SU record in the previous 60 games? Try 58-
2 – including 23 wins in a row – plus he’s a perfect 4-0 SU this year
in lined games at Norman, winning by an average of just under 25
PPG. A Sooner victory today puts OU, Texas and Texas Tech in a 3-way
tie for the Big 12 South Division title… with the tiebreaker going to
the team ranked highest in BCS standings. There are numbers aplenty
surrounding this matchup and the majority of them suggest hitching a
ride with the Sooner Schooner. For openers, Texas Tech is an anemic 2-
7 ATS off a SU conference win of 28 or more points, 2-5 ATS away with
rest and Red Raider head coach Mike Leach – who served as Stoops’
offensive coordinator for one year before bolting to Lubbock in 2000
– stands just 1-6 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite of 3 or less points off
a bye week. Meanwhile, Stoopsie is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when his team
owns a win percentage of .900 or greater versus an undefeated foe off
a win of 28 or more points. He’s also 6-1 ATS at home with conference
revenge, a situation that comes into play thanks to TTRR’s 34-27 defeat
of OU as 7.5-point home dogs in ’07. The icing on the cake comes in
the form of this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 that instructs
us to fade the Red Raiders. And even though Tech features a pair of
potential Heisman fi nalists (QB Harrell and WR Crabtree) compared
to just one for Oklahoma (QB Bradford), we think Stoops will spoil
Leach’s perfect season with a convincing double-digit smackdown.
3 BEST BET
Ole Miss over LSU by 6
You’d be hard pressed to fi nd a better coaching job in college football
this year than the one turned in by Houston Nutt at Ole Miss. In three
seasons under Nutt’s predecessor, Ed Orgeron, the Rebels struggled to
a pathetic 10-25 SU overall record while winning just THREE TIMES in
24 SEC skirmishes. This season alone, Nutt has steered Ole Miss to a
6-4 record (four losses by a combined 19 points) while bagging a trio
of conference wins. And if you think Mississippi will be intimidated
by going on the road to Baton Rouge, think again: the Rebels lost
by a mere 4 points at #1 Alabama just three weeks after conquering
#4 Florida at The Swamp! Yes, LSU did rise from the dead last week
against Troy, erasing an incredible 31-3 third quarter defi cit to score
a 40-31 win – the greatest comeback in school history. Ah, but such
events often exact a stiff price the following week and that’s not what
the Tigers need against an Ole Miss squad that’s cashed 6 of the last 7
series get-togethers (6-0 ATS L6 at Death Valley). The Bayou Bengals
are also hamstrung by a seemingly unthinkable 1-15 ATS record
in their last 16 home games against SEC opposition. The only thing
missing here is value (Rebs were 19.5-point HDs versus Tigers LY) but
the way Nutt has his team rolling, we may not need the points. Money
burners like LSU with little focus or desire (2-7 ATS TY) make for poor
favorites… and that’s what you’ll be if you try to coax a pointspread
win out of the Tigers today.
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any undefeated
conference road team from Game Ten
out that allows more than 10 PPG
versus an opponent with revenge off
a win if the opponent was favored by
35 or less points in its last game
Play Against:
TEXAS TECH
ATS W-L Record Since 1980 :16-2(89%)
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Since 1983, the Tennessee Volunteers are 24-1 SU versus Vanderbilt, favored in all twenty-five games.
SAYONARA
The last game of the season can be meaningful for college football teams
in need of respect. From a handicapping perspective, this especially
holds true when our squad that is about to check out meets these ‘value
laden’ criteria:
a) they must have won 2 or fewer games last season
b) they are on the road, without rest, in their season fi nale
c) they own a win percentage of .200 > this season
d) their opponent’s win percentage is .444 < this season
By combining all the factors above our ‘see ya later’ sad sacks are a nifty
36-21-1 ATS since 1980. There are two qualifying ‘Sayonara’ teams on this
season’s schedule: UNLV this week and UAB next Saturday.
By simply going up against a foe that allows 27.5 > PPG, and making sure
we allow < 34 PPG, we improve our numbers to 19-7-1 ATS. And by making
sure our opponent did not win two games ago by 10 or more points, we
ratchet our record up to 19-4-1 ATS. UNLV qualifi es this week.
While neither the Rebels nor the Blazers will be bowling this season,
this year’s teams certainly improved leaps and bounds over last year’s
editions. A season-ending pointspread win would be the Saki-making
statement to that effect
UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
Fla Atlantic over ARKANSAS ST by 7
Both the Owls and the Red Wolves trail Sun Belt Conference co-leaders
Troy and La Lafayette by one game for the top spot, thus making this a
pivotal game for post-season honors. And in gauging the current form
of both squads we feel the wrong team is favored. After a 0-4 start,
FAU has the look of a runaway freight train, winning each of its last
four games. Meanwhile, ASU has dropped 4 of its last 5 contests after
opening the campaign with wins in 3 of its fi rst 4 games. The history
book comes to our support, too, with the Owls 6-2 ATS as single-digit
conference road dogs while the felines are just 1-6 ATS when playing
with extra zzz’s. Howie Longname’s troops are dialed in to landing a
bowl bid and become bowl-eligible with a win here today. Beware of
the Owl.
5* BEST BET
TCU over Air Force by 31
Better get the rescue crews on standby because this looks like a fullfl
edged aerial disaster waiting to happen. The Fort Worth Frogs are
majorly pissed about letting Utah off the hook in a game where TCU
won everywhere but the scoreboard, eventually losing 13-10 in the
closing minutes at Salt Lake City. The Horned Ones have had two weeks
to stew over what might have been and will bring their ‘A’ game today
against what fi gures to be an exhausted Air Force squad. The Flyboys
left it all on the fi eld last Saturday against BYU, trading blows with
the superior Cougars until they faded in the fourth quarter. Now the
Falcons must close out the season on the road where they’ll bear more
than a slight resemblance to the cattle waiting to be slaughtered at the
Forth Worth stockyards. The Force made the big mistake of upsetting
TCU in’07 as 8.5-point home dogs and our database informs us that
the Falcons are an awful 1-17 ATS when they lose SU off a SUATS loss
versus an avenging foe. And make no mistake about it, Air Force WILL
lose this game. The Froggies have held 10 of 11 foes to season low – or
2nd low – yards this year and the nation’s best rush defense (just 39
YPG) fi gures to stymie the Flyboys’ only form of attack. TCU has cashed
in 4 of the 5 most recent series meetings and own an identical 4-1 ATS
record in Last Home Games. Look for Gary Patterson’s Frogs to reach
the 10-win plateau for the third time in the last four years with a notso-
Christian destruction of the fading jet jockeys
4 BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech by 17
It’s put up or shut up time for the new kids on the BCS block and Texas
Tech couldn’t have picked a worse venue to defend its #2 ranking.
When Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops leads his Sooners onto the
fi eld at Memorial Stadium this Saturday, it will mark his 61st home
game with OU. Stoops’ SU record in the previous 60 games? Try 58-
2 – including 23 wins in a row – plus he’s a perfect 4-0 SU this year
in lined games at Norman, winning by an average of just under 25
PPG. A Sooner victory today puts OU, Texas and Texas Tech in a 3-way
tie for the Big 12 South Division title… with the tiebreaker going to
the team ranked highest in BCS standings. There are numbers aplenty
surrounding this matchup and the majority of them suggest hitching a
ride with the Sooner Schooner. For openers, Texas Tech is an anemic 2-
7 ATS off a SU conference win of 28 or more points, 2-5 ATS away with
rest and Red Raider head coach Mike Leach – who served as Stoops’
offensive coordinator for one year before bolting to Lubbock in 2000
– stands just 1-6 SU and ATS as a dog or favorite of 3 or less points off
a bye week. Meanwhile, Stoopsie is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when his team
owns a win percentage of .900 or greater versus an undefeated foe off
a win of 28 or more points. He’s also 6-1 ATS at home with conference
revenge, a situation that comes into play thanks to TTRR’s 34-27 defeat
of OU as 7.5-point home dogs in ’07. The icing on the cake comes in
the form of this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 that instructs
us to fade the Red Raiders. And even though Tech features a pair of
potential Heisman fi nalists (QB Harrell and WR Crabtree) compared
to just one for Oklahoma (QB Bradford), we think Stoops will spoil
Leach’s perfect season with a convincing double-digit smackdown.
3 BEST BET
Ole Miss over LSU by 6
You’d be hard pressed to fi nd a better coaching job in college football
this year than the one turned in by Houston Nutt at Ole Miss. In three
seasons under Nutt’s predecessor, Ed Orgeron, the Rebels struggled to
a pathetic 10-25 SU overall record while winning just THREE TIMES in
24 SEC skirmishes. This season alone, Nutt has steered Ole Miss to a
6-4 record (four losses by a combined 19 points) while bagging a trio
of conference wins. And if you think Mississippi will be intimidated
by going on the road to Baton Rouge, think again: the Rebels lost
by a mere 4 points at #1 Alabama just three weeks after conquering
#4 Florida at The Swamp! Yes, LSU did rise from the dead last week
against Troy, erasing an incredible 31-3 third quarter defi cit to score
a 40-31 win – the greatest comeback in school history. Ah, but such
events often exact a stiff price the following week and that’s not what
the Tigers need against an Ole Miss squad that’s cashed 6 of the last 7
series get-togethers (6-0 ATS L6 at Death Valley). The Bayou Bengals
are also hamstrung by a seemingly unthinkable 1-15 ATS record
in their last 16 home games against SEC opposition. The only thing
missing here is value (Rebs were 19.5-point HDs versus Tigers LY) but
the way Nutt has his team rolling, we may not need the points. Money
burners like LSU with little focus or desire (2-7 ATS TY) make for poor
favorites… and that’s what you’ll be if you try to coax a pointspread
win out of the Tigers today.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oklahoma. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 7 or more points. TT is in a series of weak roles based on the AiS projections; all of which have an 85% probability of occurring in the game. TT is just 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992; 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Oklahoma is in a series of strong roles noting they are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 ATS for 81% since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining >6 and allowing <2 rush yards/attempt last game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 for 74% since 2002. Play against road dogs in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG in conference games. Here are some more strong roles that Oklahoma is in for this game. Note that they are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after outgaining opposition by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. TT is in a horrid role noting they are just 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Take Oklahoma.
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Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Oklahoma. AiS shows an 86% probability that Oklahoma will win this game by 7 or more points. TT is in a series of weak roles based on the AiS projections; all of which have an 85% probability of occurring in the game. TT is just 3-17 ATS (-15.7 Units) in road games when they commit 1 more turnover than their opponents since 1992; 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. Oklahoma is in a series of strong roles noting they are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 500 or more total yards over the last 2 seasons; 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play over the last 2 seasons; 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when they gain 10 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons; 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they gain 9 or more net passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-6 ATS for 81% since 1992. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining >6 and allowing <2 rush yards/attempt last game. Here is a second system that has gone 36-13 for 74% since 2002. Play against road dogs in a game involving two explosive offensive teams scoring >=34 PPG in conference games. Here are some more strong roles that Oklahoma is in for this game. Note that they are 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons; 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season; 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after outgaining opposition by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons; 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. TT is in a horrid role noting they are just 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games since 1992. Take Oklahoma.
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Free Pick Courtesy of Tony George:
N.C. State 10.5 (-110) BetUS vs 134 North Carolina Analysis: NC State +10.5
Nothing comes easy in the ACC, except if you are Georgia Tech these days! North Carolina has done a great job with Butch Davis as head man, and have surporised many with their play this season. The Tar heels however have some holes on both sides of the ball. IN THE ACC THERE IS PARITY. The difference between the best and the worst is really not more than a few plays in a game in any instance.
NC State is a cover machine going 7-1 ATS their last 8 games and they are riding a freshman sensation QB in Wilson who has tossed out 12 TD passes in his last 6 games while throwing no picks in the process. If you look at thr stats in the last 3 games these two have played this year, the stats are alomost dead even, and this is a rivalry game with pride on the line for the Wolfpack. Their ability to run it and having a QB with confidence with nothing to lose, as this is their bowl game this season, leads me to look for a cover here in a tight game. Losing all world WR Brandon Tate for NC took away a huge threat for them and big play capabilities. This one is a nail biter for Tar heel fans.
Take the points and NC State for a free Selection
N.C. State 10.5 (-110) BetUS vs 134 North Carolina Analysis: NC State +10.5
Nothing comes easy in the ACC, except if you are Georgia Tech these days! North Carolina has done a great job with Butch Davis as head man, and have surporised many with their play this season. The Tar heels however have some holes on both sides of the ball. IN THE ACC THERE IS PARITY. The difference between the best and the worst is really not more than a few plays in a game in any instance.
NC State is a cover machine going 7-1 ATS their last 8 games and they are riding a freshman sensation QB in Wilson who has tossed out 12 TD passes in his last 6 games while throwing no picks in the process. If you look at thr stats in the last 3 games these two have played this year, the stats are alomost dead even, and this is a rivalry game with pride on the line for the Wolfpack. Their ability to run it and having a QB with confidence with nothing to lose, as this is their bowl game this season, leads me to look for a cover here in a tight game. Losing all world WR Brandon Tate for NC took away a huge threat for them and big play capabilities. This one is a nail biter for Tar heel fans.
Take the points and NC State for a free Selection
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Ohio University – AiS shows an 84% probability that Ohio University will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-15 ATS for 75% since 2002. Play on a home team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% since 1992. Play against road favorites that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7+ games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. This is Ohio’s last home game so with all of the Seniors on this squad you can most assuredly expect a full throttle effort from them. Now, here is a remarkable money line system that has gone 26-7 making 24 units since 1997. Play against a road team versus the money line that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG and after 7+ games of the regular season and after allowing 37 points or more last game. This Ohio team nearly upset Central Michigan. Had it not been for a devastating hit late in the 4th quarter at the goal line, Ohio would have taken the lead and possibly won the game. They were also up 14-6 over then 3rd ranked Ohio State in week 2. They also had Temple shutout till late in the 4th quarter and allowed 2 TD to lose 14-10. So, you can see that this is a much better team than the 2-8 record would indicate, but they have taken the season to learn how to complete a full game. Against Akron they will accomplish this with the leadership of their Seniors. Take Ohio and consider an optional money line wager as well, but not to exceed 2.5* units.
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Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Ohio University – AiS shows an 84% probability that Ohio University will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 65% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 44-15 ATS for 75% since 2002. Play on a home team with a turnover margin of -1 /game or worse on the season and after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Here is a second system that has gone 38-13 ATS for 75% since 1992. Play against road favorites that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG after 7+ games and after scoring 37 points or more last game. This is Ohio’s last home game so with all of the Seniors on this squad you can most assuredly expect a full throttle effort from them. Now, here is a remarkable money line system that has gone 26-7 making 24 units since 1997. Play against a road team versus the money line that are good offensive teams scoring 28-34 PPG and is now facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 PPG and after 7+ games of the regular season and after allowing 37 points or more last game. This Ohio team nearly upset Central Michigan. Had it not been for a devastating hit late in the 4th quarter at the goal line, Ohio would have taken the lead and possibly won the game. They were also up 14-6 over then 3rd ranked Ohio State in week 2. They also had Temple shutout till late in the 4th quarter and allowed 2 TD to lose 14-10. So, you can see that this is a much better team than the 2-8 record would indicate, but they have taken the season to learn how to complete a full game. Against Akron they will accomplish this with the leadership of their Seniors. Take Ohio and consider an optional money line wager as well, but not to exceed 2.5* units.
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JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Syracuse – Wow, could you imagine if somehow Syracuse would upset the Irish? Well, it has happened before with several double digit dogs who won SU again this year. I think the one that comes closest to this game was a monumental upset when O’le Miss defeated Florida at the swap as 24 point dogs. The projections for this game are a near mirror image of that one. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-18 ATS for 69% since 1997. Play against a home team that is a good team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. ND is in a series of poor roles for this home game noting they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus mistake free teams 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992. Take Syracuse
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Syracuse – Wow, could you imagine if somehow Syracuse would upset the Irish? Well, it has happened before with several double digit dogs who won SU again this year. I think the one that comes closest to this game was a monumental upset when O’le Miss defeated Florida at the swap as 24 point dogs. The projections for this game are a near mirror image of that one. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 40-18 ATS for 69% since 1997. Play against a home team that is a good team winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season and in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. ND is in a series of poor roles for this home game noting they are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. since 1992; 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus mistake free teams 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992. Take Syracuse
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Dr. Bob
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->3 Star Selection
***PENN ST. (-14.5) 37 Michigan St. 10
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
This game will determine the Big 10 Championship, but these teams are not in the same class. Michigan State isn't that much better than an average team, averaging just 5.3 yards per play while allowing 5.1 yppl for the season (5.2 yppl to 5.0 yppl in Big 10 games). The Spartans are actually 0.3 yppl better than average after accounting for strength of opponents (average on offense at 0.3 yppl better than average on defense), but Penn State has been crushing teams of that caliber all season long. The Nittany Lions have played a slightly tougher schedule than Michigan State yet they've out-gained their opponents 6.2 yppl to 4.2 yppl while being 1.0 yppl better than average on offense and 1.4 yppl better than average defensively. Penn State has won 9 of their 11 games by 14 points or more this season, with the only exception being road games against Ohio State and Iowa, who are both considerably better than Michigan State (the Spartans lost 7-45 at home to Ohio State and were lucky to beat Iowa 16-13 at home, as they were out-gained 4.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl but were +2 in fumbles). With this game being in Happy Valley I just don't see a close contest and Joe Paterno's teams usually take care of business against lesser teams, as evidenced by Penn State's 19-6-1 ATS mark as a favorite of 9 points or more (17-4-1 ATS if not favored by more than 30 points). My math model favors Penn State by 20 ½ points in this game an Michigan State applies to a very negative 17-75-3 ATS situation while Penn State applies to a favorable 87-32-3 ATS late season situation. I'll take Penn State in a 4-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 3-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 points.
3 Star Selection
***UTAH (-7.0) 36 BYU 19
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
BYU dropped 6 consecutive games to the number before covering the spread last week against Air Force. That game will not deter me from going against the overrated Cougars again this week. BYU has a very good offensive that has averaged 6.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but Utah is nearly as good defensively – rating at 0.7 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl). The problem with BYU is a defense that has allowed only 5.0 yppl, but is actually below average since the Cougars faced a schedule of mostly bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah is no juggernaut offensively, but the Cougars are solidly better than average on offense (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) and should move the ball pretty well in this game. Utah's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is supplemented by outstanding special teams, including the nation's best kicker in Louie Sakoda. My math model favors Utah by 10 ½ points in this game and the Utes apply to a very strong 91-27-2 ATS home momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 21-61-1 ATS road letdown situation. The underdog in this series is 17-7 ATS, but that will only serve to keep me from playing this game for 4-Stars. I'll take Utah in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points (at -1.20 or less) or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -10 points.
2 Star Selection
**CINCINNATI (-5.0) 32 Pittsburgh 19
04:15 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Cincinnati has been an underrated team under coach Brian Kelly, as the Bearcats are 14-7 ATS in his tenure with 3 consecutive spread wins heading into this game. Kelly's teams, at Cincy and previously at Central Michigan, are 24-5-2 ATS in all games when not favored by more than 9 points and his teams at Cincinnati have done very well in competitively priced games – going 9-1 ATS when the spread is between -7 and +7 points. The Bearcats won for me last week despite their normally reliable field goal kicker (12 of 13 entering the game) missing all 3 of his kicks, as Cincy out-gained Louisville 6.5 yards per play to 4.5 yppl in that game. Pittsburgh is a better team than Louisville, but Cincinnati is better than Pittsburgh in all 3 facets of the game (offense, defense, and special teams) and this is also a coaching mismatch between Kelly and Dave Wannstadt. Pittsburgh has averaged an impressive 31 points per game this season, but that's a bit misleading given that the Panthers have averaged their 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Cincinnati is a very good defensive team (4.8 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and Pitt has averaged just 4.5 yppl in both games they've played against better than average defensive teams (Iowa and Notre Dame, who would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Cincinnati's defense has been particularly good since allowing 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahoma's juggernaut attack in week 2, as the Bearcats have not allowed more than 5.1 yppl to any other team all season. Pittsburgh's offense actually rates at 0.1 yppl better than average when Bill Stull is under center, but the Panthers' attack has a 0.8 yppl disadvantage in this game. Pittsburgh's defense has played well in 7 of their 9 games this season and they have allowed 5.1 yppl overall (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). However, the Panthers were horrible defensively against Rutgers, allowing 8.6 yppl and 54 points, which skews their stats. In cases like that I use a median rating and Pittsburgh's defense is actually 0.5 yppl better than average when I dampen the affect of that one horrible performance. Cincinnati's offense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at the controls, so Pitt has a 0.2 yppl advantage when the Bearcats have the ball. Overall, Cincinnati is 0.6 yppl better than Pittsburgh from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats have better special teams and are also at home while projected to have a slight edge in turnovers too. Cincinnati should not only be favored by more than 5 points (the line should be 6 ½ or 7 points), but the Bearcats also apply to a 38-4 ATS subset of a 97-38-4 ATS momentum situation. I'll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.
2 Star Selection
**UNLV (-11.5) 31 SAN DIEGO ST. 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Nobody wants to bet on a San Diego State team that is 1-11 on the season and riding an 8 game losing streak after losing 14-63 at home to Utah last week. But, the fact that the public will steer clear of the Aztecs, and would want to play on a UNLV team that must win for bowl game eligibility is part of what makes San Diego State a good bet – LINE VALUE. The oddsmakers know that Joe Gambler is not going to put his hard earned cash down on a team as bad as San Diego State and doesn't mind betting a UNLV team with incentive to win, which is why the line opened at 12 ½ points rather than a lower number. The smart money has already been betting UNLV and I'm smart enough to know that there is still plenty of value left on the side of the Aztecs. San Diego State does indeed have an injury depleted defensive that can't stop the run or the pass and the Aztecs have allowed an average of 6.3 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The defense has been even worse since mid-season when the injuries to the defensive line forced true freshman into the mix, and San Diego State has been 1.5 yppl worse than average defensively in their last 5 games, which is how I rate them heading into this contest. UNLV's offense is decent for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack), but the Rebels haven't been good at all offensively the last 2 ½ games without star quarterback Omar Clayton, who was the only good thing about the Rebels' offense. Clayton averaged an outstanding 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 4 interceptions on 258 passes, but backup Mike Clausen has averaged a pathetic 4.3 yppp on 91 pass plays this season. UNLV has averaged only 4.1 yppl in Clausen's two starts the last two weeks against New Mexico and Wyoming, who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. I actually rate UNLV's attack at 0.8 yppl worse than average with Clausen at quarterback and the Rebels have 0.7 yppl advantage when they have the ball. While UNLV should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game (my math model projects 6.3 yppl), the Rebels' horrible defense (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) will also allow San Diego State to move the ball well enough to stay competitive. The Aztecs atually have the better quarterback in this game, as Ryan Lindley averages a not so horrible 5.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) while sporting a much better than average 24% interception rate. Lindley missed a couple of games and backup quarterback Drew Westling was horrible, but San Diego State rates at just 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively with Lindley at quarterback, which gives the Aztecs a 0.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. San Diego State has been getting shutdown offensively by solid defensive teams in recent weeks, but they've performed very well against the bad defensive units they've faced this season, averaging 35.3 points , 458 yards and 6.5 yppl in games against Cal Poly, Idaho, and Colorado State, who would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team – so the Aztecs were only 0.1 yppl worse than average against bad defensive teams and my math model projects 6.2 yppl for them in this game. UNLV does have an edge in projected turnovers but San Diego State is a bit better in special teams and this game should be very competitive with my math model projecting just a 24 yards edge for UNLV. The oddsmakers obviously haven't adjusted for Omar Clayton being out and my math model favors UNLV by just 3 points. I come up with a fair line of 7 points in this game if I use a compensated points margin model (after adjusting for Lindley and Clausen at quarterback and for San Diego State's worse recent form defensively), so there is simply no way to justify a double-digit line. When researching this game I found myself a bit concerned about how a 1-10 team would play in the final game of the season. Would they simply throw in the towel and give up? I searched my database for the answer and found that teams with 1 or 0 wins for the season are actually 19-3-1 ATS since 1989 as an underdog of 7 points or more I their final game of the season when facing a conference opponent with a losing record – and the record was even better for teams that allowed 42 points or more the previous week. With no evidence that San Diego State is going to give up, I see no reason not to play the Aztecs based on the line value. I'll assume the fair line should be 7 points rather than even as my math model projects. If the line should be 7 points then San Diego State has a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at +11 ½ points and 57.5% chance of covering at +10 points, so I'll take San Diego State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Indiana 24 PURDUE (-12.0) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Indiana has had more than their share of injuries this season on both sides of the ball, but the Hoosiers are healthy at the quarterback position and the offensive line is healthier than it's been in weeks, so the Hoosiers should perform up to their potential offensively. Despite the injuries, Indiana has actually been average offensively this season, averaging 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Purdue is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), so the Hoosiers should move the ball at a decent rate. Purdue coach Joe Tiller, coaching his final game, has reinstated Curtis Painter as the starting quarterback now that he is healthy again and that move should help a struggling Boilermakers' offense that has scored 17 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. I rate Purdue's attack at just 0.3 yppl worse than average with Painter at quarterback, which gives the Boilermakers a slight advantage over a banged up Indiana defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with their current personnel (I assume LB Patterson will play this week, but CB Council will not – although he is 50/50). Purdue's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is not that significant and the Boilermakers are not good in special teams (they've allowed 3 punt return TD's). Purdue should not be favored by double-digits in this game and Indiana applies to a solid 158-77-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on Indiana's projected success running the ball against a soft Purdue defensive front (my math model projects 205 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per rushing play for the Hoosiers). I'll consider Indiana Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Oregon St. 27 ARIZONA (-2.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Oregon State's season opening fluke loss at Stanford (they out-gained Stanford 490 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 306 yards at 4.9 yppl, but were -3 in turnovers) is the Beavers' only bad loss of the season, as their other two losses were on the road against a top-10 Penn State team and on the road against unbeaten Utah, who is also a top-10 team. As you know Oregon State has also beaten USC and beat a good Cal team on the road last week, so they are certainly capable of winning here in Tucson. Arizona is a very good team, but the Wildcats' defensive lapse at Oregon last week (55 points and 510 yards allowed at 9.1 yppl) is not a good omen for them this week. Arizona applies to a very negative 7-47-2 ATS subset of a 123-231-7 ATS situation that is based on that poor defensive performance. My math model actually favors Arizona by 3 points, but the situation is strong enough for me to consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA INTL. (-6.5) 30 UL Monroe 18
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Florida International has quietly gone 6-2-1 ATS this season and the Panthers still appear to be underrated. FIU's defense has carried the team this season, allowing just 5.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit, and only the good offensive units of Iowa and UL Lafayette have averaged more than 5.2 yppl against the Panthers. Monroe has a decent offense by Sun Belt standards but the Warhawks are 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively on the national scale and are at a 0.7 yppl disadvantage in this game. While Florida International's stingy defense deserves the praise, the offense has been getting better and has averaged 5.8 yppl in 5 Sun Belt games (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Monroe's horrible defense has allowed 6.7 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team, but I rate that unit at 1.1 yppl worse than average after dampening the affect of the 12.1 yppl that they allowed to UL Lafayette (which skewed their average). FIU is actually 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively for the season and I'll use that rating instead of their better recent number in an effort to be conservative. Either way, Florida International has an advantage when they have the ball against ULM's porous defense, so the Panthers are the better team from the line of scrimmage regardless of which team has the ball and they are also better in special teams and projected turnovers. My math model favors FIU by 12 points in this game and I'll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
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***PENN ST. (-14.5) 37 Michigan St. 10
12:30 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
This game will determine the Big 10 Championship, but these teams are not in the same class. Michigan State isn't that much better than an average team, averaging just 5.3 yards per play while allowing 5.1 yppl for the season (5.2 yppl to 5.0 yppl in Big 10 games). The Spartans are actually 0.3 yppl better than average after accounting for strength of opponents (average on offense at 0.3 yppl better than average on defense), but Penn State has been crushing teams of that caliber all season long. The Nittany Lions have played a slightly tougher schedule than Michigan State yet they've out-gained their opponents 6.2 yppl to 4.2 yppl while being 1.0 yppl better than average on offense and 1.4 yppl better than average defensively. Penn State has won 9 of their 11 games by 14 points or more this season, with the only exception being road games against Ohio State and Iowa, who are both considerably better than Michigan State (the Spartans lost 7-45 at home to Ohio State and were lucky to beat Iowa 16-13 at home, as they were out-gained 4.9 yppl to 5.1 yppl but were +2 in fumbles). With this game being in Happy Valley I just don't see a close contest and Joe Paterno's teams usually take care of business against lesser teams, as evidenced by Penn State's 19-6-1 ATS mark as a favorite of 9 points or more (17-4-1 ATS if not favored by more than 30 points). My math model favors Penn State by 20 ½ points in this game an Michigan State applies to a very negative 17-75-3 ATS situation while Penn State applies to a favorable 87-32-3 ATS late season situation. I'll take Penn State in a 4-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less, for 3-Stars from -14 ½ to -17 points and for 2-Stars from -17 ½ to -20 points.
3 Star Selection
***UTAH (-7.0) 36 BYU 19
03:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
BYU dropped 6 consecutive games to the number before covering the spread last week against Air Force. That game will not deter me from going against the overrated Cougars again this week. BYU has a very good offensive that has averaged 6.5 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but Utah is nearly as good defensively – rating at 0.7 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl). The problem with BYU is a defense that has allowed only 5.0 yppl, but is actually below average since the Cougars faced a schedule of mostly bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yppl against an average defensive team. Utah is no juggernaut offensively, but the Cougars are solidly better than average on offense (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack) and should move the ball pretty well in this game. Utah's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is supplemented by outstanding special teams, including the nation's best kicker in Louie Sakoda. My math model favors Utah by 10 ½ points in this game and the Utes apply to a very strong 91-27-2 ATS home momentum situation while BYU applies to a negative 21-61-1 ATS road letdown situation. The underdog in this series is 17-7 ATS, but that will only serve to keep me from playing this game for 4-Stars. I'll take Utah in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points (at -1.20 or less) or less and for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -10 points.
2 Star Selection
**CINCINNATI (-5.0) 32 Pittsburgh 19
04:15 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Cincinnati has been an underrated team under coach Brian Kelly, as the Bearcats are 14-7 ATS in his tenure with 3 consecutive spread wins heading into this game. Kelly's teams, at Cincy and previously at Central Michigan, are 24-5-2 ATS in all games when not favored by more than 9 points and his teams at Cincinnati have done very well in competitively priced games – going 9-1 ATS when the spread is between -7 and +7 points. The Bearcats won for me last week despite their normally reliable field goal kicker (12 of 13 entering the game) missing all 3 of his kicks, as Cincy out-gained Louisville 6.5 yards per play to 4.5 yppl in that game. Pittsburgh is a better team than Louisville, but Cincinnati is better than Pittsburgh in all 3 facets of the game (offense, defense, and special teams) and this is also a coaching mismatch between Kelly and Dave Wannstadt. Pittsburgh has averaged an impressive 31 points per game this season, but that's a bit misleading given that the Panthers have averaged their 5.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Cincinnati is a very good defensive team (4.8 yppl allowed to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and Pitt has averaged just 4.5 yppl in both games they've played against better than average defensive teams (Iowa and Notre Dame, who would combine to allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Cincinnati's defense has been particularly good since allowing 7.2 yppl and 52 points to Oklahoma's juggernaut attack in week 2, as the Bearcats have not allowed more than 5.1 yppl to any other team all season. Pittsburgh's offense actually rates at 0.1 yppl better than average when Bill Stull is under center, but the Panthers' attack has a 0.8 yppl disadvantage in this game. Pittsburgh's defense has played well in 7 of their 9 games this season and they have allowed 5.1 yppl overall (to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). However, the Panthers were horrible defensively against Rutgers, allowing 8.6 yppl and 54 points, which skews their stats. In cases like that I use a median rating and Pittsburgh's defense is actually 0.5 yppl better than average when I dampen the affect of that one horrible performance. Cincinnati's offense rates at 0.3 yppl better than average with Tony Pike at the controls, so Pitt has a 0.2 yppl advantage when the Bearcats have the ball. Overall, Cincinnati is 0.6 yppl better than Pittsburgh from the line of scrimmage, the Bearcats have better special teams and are also at home while projected to have a slight edge in turnovers too. Cincinnati should not only be favored by more than 5 points (the line should be 6 ½ or 7 points), but the Bearcats also apply to a 38-4 ATS subset of a 97-38-4 ATS momentum situation. I'll take Cincinnati in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -4 or less.
2 Star Selection
**UNLV (-11.5) 31 SAN DIEGO ST. 28
05:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Nobody wants to bet on a San Diego State team that is 1-11 on the season and riding an 8 game losing streak after losing 14-63 at home to Utah last week. But, the fact that the public will steer clear of the Aztecs, and would want to play on a UNLV team that must win for bowl game eligibility is part of what makes San Diego State a good bet – LINE VALUE. The oddsmakers know that Joe Gambler is not going to put his hard earned cash down on a team as bad as San Diego State and doesn't mind betting a UNLV team with incentive to win, which is why the line opened at 12 ½ points rather than a lower number. The smart money has already been betting UNLV and I'm smart enough to know that there is still plenty of value left on the side of the Aztecs. San Diego State does indeed have an injury depleted defensive that can't stop the run or the pass and the Aztecs have allowed an average of 6.3 yards per play this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. The defense has been even worse since mid-season when the injuries to the defensive line forced true freshman into the mix, and San Diego State has been 1.5 yppl worse than average defensively in their last 5 games, which is how I rate them heading into this contest. UNLV's offense is decent for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack), but the Rebels haven't been good at all offensively the last 2 ½ games without star quarterback Omar Clayton, who was the only good thing about the Rebels' offense. Clayton averaged an outstanding 7.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while throwing just 4 interceptions on 258 passes, but backup Mike Clausen has averaged a pathetic 4.3 yppp on 91 pass plays this season. UNLV has averaged only 4.1 yppl in Clausen's two starts the last two weeks against New Mexico and Wyoming, who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. I actually rate UNLV's attack at 0.8 yppl worse than average with Clausen at quarterback and the Rebels have 0.7 yppl advantage when they have the ball. While UNLV should be able to move the ball pretty well in this game (my math model projects 6.3 yppl), the Rebels' horrible defense (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team) will also allow San Diego State to move the ball well enough to stay competitive. The Aztecs atually have the better quarterback in this game, as Ryan Lindley averages a not so horrible 5.6 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB) while sporting a much better than average 24% interception rate. Lindley missed a couple of games and backup quarterback Drew Westling was horrible, but San Diego State rates at just 0.5 yppl worse than average offensively with Lindley at quarterback, which gives the Aztecs a 0.4 yppl advantage when they have the ball. San Diego State has been getting shutdown offensively by solid defensive teams in recent weeks, but they've performed very well against the bad defensive units they've faced this season, averaging 35.3 points , 458 yards and 6.5 yppl in games against Cal Poly, Idaho, and Colorado State, who would combine to allow 6.6 yppl to an average team – so the Aztecs were only 0.1 yppl worse than average against bad defensive teams and my math model projects 6.2 yppl for them in this game. UNLV does have an edge in projected turnovers but San Diego State is a bit better in special teams and this game should be very competitive with my math model projecting just a 24 yards edge for UNLV. The oddsmakers obviously haven't adjusted for Omar Clayton being out and my math model favors UNLV by just 3 points. I come up with a fair line of 7 points in this game if I use a compensated points margin model (after adjusting for Lindley and Clausen at quarterback and for San Diego State's worse recent form defensively), so there is simply no way to justify a double-digit line. When researching this game I found myself a bit concerned about how a 1-10 team would play in the final game of the season. Would they simply throw in the towel and give up? I searched my database for the answer and found that teams with 1 or 0 wins for the season are actually 19-3-1 ATS since 1989 as an underdog of 7 points or more I their final game of the season when facing a conference opponent with a losing record – and the record was even better for teams that allowed 42 points or more the previous week. With no evidence that San Diego State is going to give up, I see no reason not to play the Aztecs based on the line value. I'll assume the fair line should be 7 points rather than even as my math model projects. If the line should be 7 points then San Diego State has a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at +11 ½ points and 57.5% chance of covering at +10 points, so I'll take San Diego State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Indiana 24 PURDUE (-12.0) 30
09:00 AM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Indiana has had more than their share of injuries this season on both sides of the ball, but the Hoosiers are healthy at the quarterback position and the offensive line is healthier than it's been in weeks, so the Hoosiers should perform up to their potential offensively. Despite the injuries, Indiana has actually been average offensively this season, averaging 5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Purdue is only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team), so the Hoosiers should move the ball at a decent rate. Purdue coach Joe Tiller, coaching his final game, has reinstated Curtis Painter as the starting quarterback now that he is healthy again and that move should help a struggling Boilermakers' offense that has scored 17 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. I rate Purdue's attack at just 0.3 yppl worse than average with Painter at quarterback, which gives the Boilermakers a slight advantage over a banged up Indiana defense that rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average with their current personnel (I assume LB Patterson will play this week, but CB Council will not – although he is 50/50). Purdue's overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is not that significant and the Boilermakers are not good in special teams (they've allowed 3 punt return TD's). Purdue should not be favored by double-digits in this game and Indiana applies to a solid 158-77-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator that is based on Indiana's projected success running the ball against a soft Purdue defensive front (my math model projects 205 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per rushing play for the Hoosiers). I'll consider Indiana Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.
Strong Opinion
Oregon St. 27 ARIZONA (-2.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Oregon State's season opening fluke loss at Stanford (they out-gained Stanford 490 yards at 6.0 yards per play to 306 yards at 4.9 yppl, but were -3 in turnovers) is the Beavers' only bad loss of the season, as their other two losses were on the road against a top-10 Penn State team and on the road against unbeaten Utah, who is also a top-10 team. As you know Oregon State has also beaten USC and beat a good Cal team on the road last week, so they are certainly capable of winning here in Tucson. Arizona is a very good team, but the Wildcats' defensive lapse at Oregon last week (55 points and 510 yards allowed at 9.1 yppl) is not a good omen for them this week. Arizona applies to a very negative 7-47-2 ATS subset of a 123-231-7 ATS situation that is based on that poor defensive performance. My math model actually favors Arizona by 3 points, but the situation is strong enough for me to consider Oregon State a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA INTL. (-6.5) 30 UL Monroe 18
04:00 PM Pacific, 22-Nov-08
Florida International has quietly gone 6-2-1 ATS this season and the Panthers still appear to be underrated. FIU's defense has carried the team this season, allowing just 5.1 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive unit, and only the good offensive units of Iowa and UL Lafayette have averaged more than 5.2 yppl against the Panthers. Monroe has a decent offense by Sun Belt standards but the Warhawks are 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively on the national scale and are at a 0.7 yppl disadvantage in this game. While Florida International's stingy defense deserves the praise, the offense has been getting better and has averaged 5.8 yppl in 5 Sun Belt games (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Monroe's horrible defense has allowed 6.7 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average team, but I rate that unit at 1.1 yppl worse than average after dampening the affect of the 12.1 yppl that they allowed to UL Lafayette (which skewed their average). FIU is actually 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively for the season and I'll use that rating instead of their better recent number in an effort to be conservative. Either way, Florida International has an advantage when they have the ball against ULM's porous defense, so the Panthers are the better team from the line of scrimmage regardless of which team has the ball and they are also better in special teams and projected turnovers. My math model favors FIU by 12 points in this game and I'll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.
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BEN BURNS
SITUATIONAL GAME OF YEAR
I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. *situational GOY
BEN BURNS
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. *Personal Favorite
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm laying the points with OKLAHOMA. *Big 12 Main Event
BEN BURNS
Annihilator
I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. *Annihilator
SITUATIONAL GAME OF YEAR
I'm taking the points with TENNESSEE. *situational GOY
BEN BURNS
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. *Personal Favorite
BEN BURNS
MAIN EVENT
I'm laying the points with OKLAHOMA. *Big 12 Main Event
BEN BURNS
Annihilator
I'm taking the points with LOUISVILLE. *Annihilator
Free Recommendation:
Maritimo Funchal vs. Sporting Braga
November 22nd, 2008 / 19:15
Soccer - Portuguese Liga Sagres
This is a game between two candidates for the UEFA cup places that started the season badly, but since then recovered and are now playing nearer to their potential. The home team, favorites here, are in great form and, after defeating Trofense away by a clear 2-0, will expect to defeat a direct rival for the top places. With 7 goals scored in four home games, they are expected to attack if they want to defeat Braga. And with one goal conceded per game, it will be no surprise if the visitors tremendous attacking potential allows them to score and, perhaps, cause a major upset. A 1X2 game, but goals are expected so that is our recommendation.
VictoriousPlay: Over 2 goals
Maritimo Funchal vs. Sporting Braga
November 22nd, 2008 / 19:15
Soccer - Portuguese Liga Sagres
This is a game between two candidates for the UEFA cup places that started the season badly, but since then recovered and are now playing nearer to their potential. The home team, favorites here, are in great form and, after defeating Trofense away by a clear 2-0, will expect to defeat a direct rival for the top places. With 7 goals scored in four home games, they are expected to attack if they want to defeat Braga. And with one goal conceded per game, it will be no surprise if the visitors tremendous attacking potential allows them to score and, perhaps, cause a major upset. A 1X2 game, but goals are expected so that is our recommendation.
VictoriousPlay: Over 2 goals
