Cajun-Sports CFB Exec -Saturday
12:00 PM EDT
4 STAR SELECTION
Miami +2½ over VIRGINIA
The Cavaliers have continued surprise on a weekly basis recently, upsetting Georgia Tech last week for its fourth consecutive win. Now, they host the Hurricanes as a small favorite.
Much like last year, there is nothing sexy about Virginia, as they are winning with a solid defense, a power running game, a limited number of mistakes, and having the ball bounce their way. Now the hunter has become the hunted and Virginia will try for the first time to protect a one-game lead in the Coastal Division.
Miami remained in the hunt for the division with its 16-10 victory over Wake Forest last weekend, their 3rd straight win. Now, they get a chance to pay back the Cavs for last year’s 52-7 loss in the Orange Bowl swan song.
While this is not a vintage Hurricane defense, it still ranks #15 in the country and has enough talent and speed to shut down the vanilla ‘Hoo offense. Virginia averages just 17 points a game and as a team has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes.
Miami is also in good shape physically approaching the final month of the season. TB Javarris James has played the last two games and looks to be closer to 100%. DT Josh Holmes made his season debut against Wake and adds quality depth to the defensive front.
In conference play between these teams, the underdog is 4-0 ATS (+21.9 ppg) all-time, and Miami is a solid 10-0 ATS (+9.1 ppg) on the road with less than 8 days rest and a line between +4 & -3.
The oddmakers actually opened the visitors as a 1-point favorite; however, the public has jumped on Virginia to the point of making them the favorite. Anytime the public moves a line 3+ points from the opening number, it’s time to take a strong look in the other direction, which is what we’re doing here.
The Cavaliers did well as an underdog, winning 3 straight in that role in their last 3 games; however, they are 0-6 ATS (-13.2 ppg) as a favorite vs. opponents playing with revenge for a SU shutout loss, and 0-6 ATS (-11.5 ppg) as a favorite of less than 17 points with less than 13 days rest off a road underdog SU win.
Following 3 wins in which they weren’t favored, teams have suffered a letdown in the unfamiliar role of favorite.
Finally, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that warns us about teams such as the Cavs. It states:
Play AGAINST a favorite off 3 underdog/pick ‘em SU wins vs. an opponent not off a SU win of less than 4 points.
Since 2002, these teams are 0-13 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 18 points per game on average!
Virginia has barely escaped with wins in their last 2 games, but this time the visiting underdogs should have the upper-hand and we look for the Hurricanes to get a late FG to beat the Cavaliers.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MIAMI, FL 24 VIRGINIA 21
12:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
CONNECTICUT +3½ over West Virginia
Following the Mountaineers rally and win over Auburn, West Virginia is on the road Saturday to face the Huskies in a Big East showdown. The Mountaineers are alone atop the conference, but now they’ll be facing a feisty Connecticut team looking to avenge last year’s 66-21 debacle in Morgantown.
While West Virginia has won four in a row, there’s still doubt whether the offense has gotten out of its September funk, especially back in conference play. This is a huge weekend for the Husky program, especially after it was dressed down in this game last fall. Nothing will scream progress for Randy Edsall more than a win over the defending champs and the one league member with a national image. The winner of this game will start November as the favorite for a BCS bowl berth.
The running of RD Donald Brown, the nation’s leading rusher, and the play of the defense should keep the Huskies in this game, especially at Rentschler Field. Brown is a workhorse, who’s yet to be held under 100 yards in a game, and can wear down the West Virginia D with 30 or 35 carries. The defense is among the stingiest in the Big East, ranking second in both total defense and scoring defense.
This game will look nothing like last year’s blowout. Connecticut has the staying power and right formula to be in it for 60 minutes. The Mountaineers are getting a little too much love from the wagering public, so we’ll be contrarians and play AGAINST a team off a nationally televised blowout win.
As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the winning team as invincible and will think they are a “sure thing” the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the pointspread accordingly, so there is no line value with this team.
We also play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number.
Despite their SU & ATS win against the Tigers, West Virginia remains a team with a good SU record but a bad ATS record. Such teams are the most overvalued on the board. Due to their good SU mark, they will continue to get a lot of attention, and thus money, from the public, preserving the line value in playing against them.
Looking closely at our database numbers, we find the Mountaineers are:
0-7 ATS (-14.1 ppg) off a SU & ATS win vs. a conference opponent;
0-4 ATS as a favorite off a non-Saturday SU win vs. an opponent off a SU win;
0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Meanwhile, Connecticut is:
11-0 SU at home;
3-0 ATS all time as a home underdog off an underdog SU win;
11-0 ATS (+11.4 ppg) at home with revenge and not an underdog of more than 23 points.
Finally, off a previous home victory, home underdogs have been very confident against an opponent coming in flat off a highlighted, non-Saturday victory. This is the situation for the Huskies, qualifying them for an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that states:
From Game 3 on, play ON a home underdog of more than 3 points off a home SU win vs. an opponent off a non-Saturday SU win.
Since 2001, these teams are 14-0 ATS, beating the spread by more than a TD per game on average.
This looks to be a Big East “black and blue affair”, but we look for the hosts to do the pushing around this year, as the Mountaineers make a late mistake and lose the game in a mild upset.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: CONNECTICUT 27 WEST VIRGINIA 24
12:00 PM EDT - ESPN2
3 STAR SELECTION
Northwestern +7½ over MINNESOTA
The WildCats and Gophers of all teams are still in the Rose Bowl hunt in November, and now face off early on Saturday.
Minnesota doesn’t have to play Michigan State or Penn State, and it’s taking advantage of the relatively light schedule with a solid three-game winning streak.
On the other side, Northwestern’s fantastic season took a major downturn with a stunning, inexcusable loss to Indiana that was bad enough, but the offense lost two key players in QB C.J. Bacher to a hamstring and RB Tyrell Sutton to a wrist injury.
After going 6-6 last year and being left out of the bowl picture, last week was supposed to be a coronation to get over the hump and take the Pat Fitzgerald era to another level. With Ohio State up next, a trip to Michigan, and Illinois to close things out, there isn’t sure-thing in the bunch. The program has been resilient in coming back from the death of Randy Walker, and now it looks to bounce back from last week’s disaster.
Despite the loss and injuries, we like the WildCats here, especially with the line value we are getting. It’s not like the Minnesota offense is throwing a ton of points on the board. The running game is mediocre, the passing game if efficient, but it’s not explosive, and the O is doing just enough to get by.
Ultimately, we don’t expect Northwestern to skip a beat with the replacements in the backfield. QB Mike Kafka is a terrific athlete and a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, who has started before. RB Omar Conteh takes over the workhorse role in the Wildcats' offense. The Texas native has a similar skill set as Sutton. He's just as capable of a receiver, which is key in the attack
The WildCats are 6-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) as an underdog vs. opponents seeking revenge for an underdog SU loss. They will have the edge of being overlooked by a Gophers team caught up in homecoming festivities.
We also like to play AGAINST a team that is a public consensus play, especially in TV games. These teams backed by 70%+ of the betting masses at contest sites and sportsbooks are fool's gold. When 7 out of 10 bettors think they know more than the oddsmakers, it's time to get out of the way and allow the sportsbooks to show why once again how they stay in business. Here, we have over 80% of the amateurs siding with the host. We’ll gladly fade that number.
The home team is 0-10 ATS (-10.2 ppg) in this series when not undefeated on the season, so this series has been dominated by the visitors. We also note that the Gophers are 0-8 SU (-10.6 ppg) & 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) before Game 10 vs. an opponent off a SU favorite loss. We look for the WildCats to get back on track here against a flat home team.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: WISCONSIN 31 MINNESOTA 28 (OT)
12:30 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
Auburn +6½ over MISSISSIPPI
Two 4-4 SEC teams meet up on Saturday as the Rebels host the Tigers. Ole Miss is coming off a controversial 23-21 win over Arkansas to halt a two-game losing skid, while Auburn is looking to get back on track and end a rare losing streak.
The Tigers defense should catch its breath here against a more familiar foe. It didn’t get any help from the offense and wore down in the second half at West Virginia, but should bounce back nicely here. The Rebels have an improving offense, but it isn’t anything special and it’s not going to crank out big numbers against a Tiger D that won’t give up anything through the air and will be next to impossible to run on up the middle.
With Auburn we’re going to play ON a team with the superior defense, especially if a team’s defensive strength neutralizes the opponent’s offensive strength. This could cause them to go with plays they are not well suited for.
Also, we’re going to play ON a team off a nationally televised blowout loss. As an old handicapper proverb states, “a team is never as good or as bad as its last game”. Blowouts do happen, and when they occur on a national stage, they can leave a lasting impression on viewers. The public regards the losing team as woeful and won’t want to touch them the following week. The oddsmakers know this and adjust the line accordingly, providing good value on the losing team.
We are indeed getting good line value here with the Tigers, despite their recent losing streak. Auburn is 4-0 SU vs. Mississippi last 4 years and 7-0 SU last 7 trips to Mississippi, as well as 6-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) as an underdog vs. opponents seeking revenge.
We have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM that demonstrates the good possibility of the Tigers rising up here, stating:
Play ON a Saturday underdog of 2½-13½ points with less than 15 days rest off a non-Saturday non-conference road SU loss vs. an opponent not off a conference home favorite SU & ATS win.
Since the start of the database in 1981, these teams are an outstanding 18-0-1 ATS, beating the spread by more than a dozen points per game on average.
While Mississippi has been much better under Houston Nutt, they have done well as a favorite and are now 0-5-1 ATS as a conference favorite since 2005. The Tigers should make enough improvement on both sides of the ball to end their losing streak with an upset victory here over the Rebels.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: AUBURN 23 MISSISSIPPI 17
2:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
Colorado +3½ over TEXAS A&M
The Buffalos hope to bury last week’s disaster as they are back on the road to take on an Aggies team that is not very good, isn’t playing a lick of defense and the special teams are lousy, at best.
Colorado suffered a 58-0 embarrassment at Missouri last week, but still have hopes of making it to a bowl game. To get there, a win this week is pretty much a must. If Colorado is ever going to get its running game going, this will be the week. Look for the Buffs to get RB Rodney Stewart, RB Darrell Scott, and QB Tyler Hanson on track early on. A&M has the Big 12’s worst run defense allowing 203 yards per game. The Aggies have allowed fewer than 200 rushing yards three times.
With Colorado we are going to play ON a team with at least some pride off a horrible performance. A team that has hit a new low with an awful showing will be determined to get rid of the bitter taste and bad press. When the players openly admit to being embarrassed by the result of their last effort, expect their best effort next time out, which is what we are looking for here.
We can also play ON a mediocre team in the “meat” of the season off a loss that has a chance to win a game against an opponent of similar ability and satisfied off a win.
The team off the win will not have the same fight or motivation as its hungry foe. Additionally, the Buffalos will bring some confidence in here, as they are 4-0 ATS (+12.8 ppg) vs. Texas A&M since 2000. Colorado is also a strong 9-0 SU (+8.9 ppg) & 9-0 ATS (+11.8 ppg) as an underdog of less than 4 points vs. an opponent not off an underdog/pick ‘em SU loss.
Off a disastrous road game in which they were blown off the field, small underdogs have been quite strong recently against conference foes under the conditions described by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM ours. It reads:
Play ON a conference underdog of 1½-4½ points off a conference road SU loss of 36+ points vs. an opponent not off a conference home ATS win of more than 18 points.
Since 1999, these teams are 13-0 ATS, demolishing the spread by more than 18 ppg on average!
We are also going to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. About 8% of all college football games end with a 3-point SU winner and slightly more than 6% end with a 7-point margin. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a FG, TD, or double-digits (the key number in question) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. If the line has moved up to the key number or above it after the opening spreads were posted, it's a sign that the public has taken the bait and the favorite, especially if the line move did not happened a day or more after the number was put up. This now allows a sharp bettor to play the underdog without being concerned about the opening line a half-point off a key number. That’s precisely the case here, as the public is all over Texas A&M, moving the number up and providing us with additional line value.
The Aggies are 0-9 ATS (-12.1 ppg) off a SU win and not favored by 23 points since 2006, so we expect their victory celebration to short lived, as they are run over by an angry Buffaloes team.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: COLORADO 27 TEXAS A&M 21
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