Sat, 11/01/08 - 3:30 PMTommy Rider | CFB Total
triple-dime bet348 Georgia / 347 Florida Over 56.0 SportBet
Analysis:
UPGRADED: ***3 UNIT CFB TOTAL OF THE YEAR***
I decided to upgrade this and make it may CFB Total of the Year for a couple of reasons. First, I have been killing it in the SEC lately. I really seem to have a handle on that conference and my projections have been spot on over the last month. I have this game coming in at 75 points, almost two touchdowns over the total. In my opinion, this line is set way too low. So the question becomes, why?
Here is the deal: The books could care less if we bet this total. That's because they have been getting hammered on Big 12 totals all year long and are trying to set numbers high enough to get people off of those games. If this line was 62, it may not look as appealing. Trust me, as long as people aren't betting overs in the Big 12, the books will be happy.
The other reason I love this total is because I'm not sold on either defense. I think Florida is much improved from last year but when they played Ole Miss and LSU, both teams had success moving the football. And those who follow my picks all know how I feel about the Bulldogs defense. I had UGA as my Underdog Game of the Month last week only because I knew they would be able to point up points on LSU's overrated defense. However, if it weren't for a couple of mistakes, LSU would have scored in the high 40's in that game. Expect Florida to get there this week.
There is just too much offensive firepower on the field in this game and neither defense is a shut-down type of unit. Plus, look at the value we get here. With all the offensive playmakers, we get a total at 56, compared to Kansas/Kansas State where the total is set at 74. Put this all together and it was enough for me to make this play my CFB Total of the Year. I see a score in the neighborhood of 41-34.
Sat, 11/01/08 - 8:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet380 LSU -24.0 (-120) SportBet vs 379 Tulane
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY**
This game is taylor-made for LSU. Some might think this is a bad spot for the Tigers because it's between Georgia and Alabama but I disagree. LSU got blasted last week. Those sandwich situations don't apply when you get embarrassed the week before. Now comes a reeling, hobbling Tulane squad that is without its top rusher, its top receiver and is unsettled at the quarterback position. That's not a great recipe for success when traveling to Death Valley for a night game. I have stated that LSU's defense is overrated and that's because they are front runners. The defense will dominate in this game against an inferior opponent. To be honest, Tulane may not even score a touchdown in this game. The other reason I like laying the big number here is because of freshman QB Jarrett Lee. Lee made a couple of big mistakes against Georgia but he also made a lot of positive plays. With Alabama on deck, Les Miles knows he needs Lee to play well in that game for LSU to pull the upset. You can't just line up and run the football against the Tide, so expect LSU to be throwing even when they have a big lead here. This is what I like to call a "confidence builder" game. LSU needs to build its confidence back up after getting drilled last week and they have the perfect opponent to do just that. I Bought the half point to prevent against a backdoor but doubt it will matter. LSU wins this game by at least 5 touchdowns.
triple-dime bet348 Georgia / 347 Florida Over 56.0 SportBet
Analysis:
UPGRADED: ***3 UNIT CFB TOTAL OF THE YEAR***
I decided to upgrade this and make it may CFB Total of the Year for a couple of reasons. First, I have been killing it in the SEC lately. I really seem to have a handle on that conference and my projections have been spot on over the last month. I have this game coming in at 75 points, almost two touchdowns over the total. In my opinion, this line is set way too low. So the question becomes, why?
Here is the deal: The books could care less if we bet this total. That's because they have been getting hammered on Big 12 totals all year long and are trying to set numbers high enough to get people off of those games. If this line was 62, it may not look as appealing. Trust me, as long as people aren't betting overs in the Big 12, the books will be happy.
The other reason I love this total is because I'm not sold on either defense. I think Florida is much improved from last year but when they played Ole Miss and LSU, both teams had success moving the football. And those who follow my picks all know how I feel about the Bulldogs defense. I had UGA as my Underdog Game of the Month last week only because I knew they would be able to point up points on LSU's overrated defense. However, if it weren't for a couple of mistakes, LSU would have scored in the high 40's in that game. Expect Florida to get there this week.
There is just too much offensive firepower on the field in this game and neither defense is a shut-down type of unit. Plus, look at the value we get here. With all the offensive playmakers, we get a total at 56, compared to Kansas/Kansas State where the total is set at 74. Put this all together and it was enough for me to make this play my CFB Total of the Year. I see a score in the neighborhood of 41-34.
Sat, 11/01/08 - 8:00 PMTommy Rider | CFB Side
double-dime bet380 LSU -24.0 (-120) SportBet vs 379 Tulane
Analysis:
**2 UNIT PLAY**
This game is taylor-made for LSU. Some might think this is a bad spot for the Tigers because it's between Georgia and Alabama but I disagree. LSU got blasted last week. Those sandwich situations don't apply when you get embarrassed the week before. Now comes a reeling, hobbling Tulane squad that is without its top rusher, its top receiver and is unsettled at the quarterback position. That's not a great recipe for success when traveling to Death Valley for a night game. I have stated that LSU's defense is overrated and that's because they are front runners. The defense will dominate in this game against an inferior opponent. To be honest, Tulane may not even score a touchdown in this game. The other reason I like laying the big number here is because of freshman QB Jarrett Lee. Lee made a couple of big mistakes against Georgia but he also made a lot of positive plays. With Alabama on deck, Les Miles knows he needs Lee to play well in that game for LSU to pull the upset. You can't just line up and run the football against the Tide, so expect LSU to be throwing even when they have a big lead here. This is what I like to call a "confidence builder" game. LSU needs to build its confidence back up after getting drilled last week and they have the perfect opponent to do just that. I Bought the half point to prevent against a backdoor but doubt it will matter. LSU wins this game by at least 5 touchdowns.
Bettorsworld
KEY RELEASE
3* Duke +8 over Wake Forest - Never in a million years did we think we'd have a Key Release on Duke in the 2008-2009 football season. After many years of being one of the worst, if not the worst team in college football, the Duke Blue Devils are 4-3 and can smell a Bowl Game on the horizon. This team is hungry, and is playing some good football. Duke is #6 in the Nation in turnover margin at +9 and while Wake Forest is right behind them on that list, the Demon Deacons are struggling offensively. After scoring 30 points on opening day, Wake Forest has scored 12, 17, 12, 0 and 10 points. That's an average of 10 points per game and they are laying 8 in this game. Not much room for error.
Duke playing some decent football these days. Not great, but good. They had one game this year that was lopsided, otherwise they have been in them all. Their yards per point on offense is a nice 13 and defensively they have a decent 16. Anytime the defensive ypp number is higher than the offensive number, that's a good thing. Wake Forest has a nice ypp number of 18 defensively but it's the 17 on offense that attracts us to this play. They just aren't putting the ball in the end zone.
Something else we like to do when taking a look at teams that play each other every year is to take a look at recent results. Why? To see if the talent is there to compete in the first place. Common sense really. In this case, a team like Duke is loaded with returning starters from a year ago. 10 on defense and 7 on offense. It's pretty much the same team talent wise as a year ago. If we looked at past results and saw a string of 30 point losses every year, we'd back off. That would suggest the talent gap couldn't possibly have closed that much in a year. But guess what? Here's the scores of the last 4 years of games between these two.
2007 - Wake Forest 41-36
2006 - Wake Forest 14-13
2005 - Wake Forest 44-6
2004 - Wake Forest 24-22
All Wake Forest wins, but 3 of the 4 games were decided by 5, 2 and 1 point. 2005 wasn't close. But 3 of the 4 years suggests the talent gap is close. Particularly when you look at the more recent results of the last two years. Wake Forest has been one of our favorite teams to get involved with over the last few years. We saw their success coming and jumped on their wagon early and as a result cashed quite a few nice winners along the way. But there's a good chance, just as in the stock market, that the Wake Forest stock has peaked. This price of -8 suggests perhaps that Wake Forest living off their past reputation in the eyes of the betting public and the oddsmakers, not what they have done lately. As it is, they have lost 4 of 6 against the spread this year.
Again, laying 8 when you've averaged 10 points per game in your last 5 games is a tall order. But what puts this one over the top for us is the magic number of 6. That's the number of wins required to earn a Bowl bid and with Duke sitting at 4 wins, and with the schedule the rest of the way not exactly easy, this opportunity to grab a win becomes HUGE. If Duke came close 3 out of 4 years against Wake Forest teams that were much better than this years bunch, then they can certainly come close while having one of their best years in a long time. The straight up win and the chance for a bowl is what they're looking at. Getting +7.5 or + 8 is a nice spot here. This play good all the way down to +7. 3* Duke + 8
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KEY RELEASE
3* Duke +8 over Wake Forest - Never in a million years did we think we'd have a Key Release on Duke in the 2008-2009 football season. After many years of being one of the worst, if not the worst team in college football, the Duke Blue Devils are 4-3 and can smell a Bowl Game on the horizon. This team is hungry, and is playing some good football. Duke is #6 in the Nation in turnover margin at +9 and while Wake Forest is right behind them on that list, the Demon Deacons are struggling offensively. After scoring 30 points on opening day, Wake Forest has scored 12, 17, 12, 0 and 10 points. That's an average of 10 points per game and they are laying 8 in this game. Not much room for error.
Duke playing some decent football these days. Not great, but good. They had one game this year that was lopsided, otherwise they have been in them all. Their yards per point on offense is a nice 13 and defensively they have a decent 16. Anytime the defensive ypp number is higher than the offensive number, that's a good thing. Wake Forest has a nice ypp number of 18 defensively but it's the 17 on offense that attracts us to this play. They just aren't putting the ball in the end zone.
Something else we like to do when taking a look at teams that play each other every year is to take a look at recent results. Why? To see if the talent is there to compete in the first place. Common sense really. In this case, a team like Duke is loaded with returning starters from a year ago. 10 on defense and 7 on offense. It's pretty much the same team talent wise as a year ago. If we looked at past results and saw a string of 30 point losses every year, we'd back off. That would suggest the talent gap couldn't possibly have closed that much in a year. But guess what? Here's the scores of the last 4 years of games between these two.
2007 - Wake Forest 41-36
2006 - Wake Forest 14-13
2005 - Wake Forest 44-6
2004 - Wake Forest 24-22
All Wake Forest wins, but 3 of the 4 games were decided by 5, 2 and 1 point. 2005 wasn't close. But 3 of the 4 years suggests the talent gap is close. Particularly when you look at the more recent results of the last two years. Wake Forest has been one of our favorite teams to get involved with over the last few years. We saw their success coming and jumped on their wagon early and as a result cashed quite a few nice winners along the way. But there's a good chance, just as in the stock market, that the Wake Forest stock has peaked. This price of -8 suggests perhaps that Wake Forest living off their past reputation in the eyes of the betting public and the oddsmakers, not what they have done lately. As it is, they have lost 4 of 6 against the spread this year.
Again, laying 8 when you've averaged 10 points per game in your last 5 games is a tall order. But what puts this one over the top for us is the magic number of 6. That's the number of wins required to earn a Bowl bid and with Duke sitting at 4 wins, and with the schedule the rest of the way not exactly easy, this opportunity to grab a win becomes HUGE. If Duke came close 3 out of 4 years against Wake Forest teams that were much better than this years bunch, then they can certainly come close while having one of their best years in a long time. The straight up win and the chance for a bowl is what they're looking at. Getting +7.5 or + 8 is a nice spot here. This play good all the way down to +7. 3* Duke + 8
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TONY GEORGE
FLORIDA
Cannot back Georgia here with Florida playing so well. This is the worlds largest cocktail party in Jacksonville, but Florida has the ability to shut down the run, which forces the Bulldogs out of their game plan. QB Tebow is now on fire and with some big time revenge on the side of Florida who lost by 12 last year, I smell plenty of weak ness's I have noticed with Georgia coming to the forefront here. Florida offense is on fire, scoring 152 points in their last 3 games against SEC foes. Bulldog secondary average at best and suspect here, and with QB Tebow leading the SEC in pass efficiency, they are worth the spread here as I think Florida far more capable of making big plays...this is for the East title no doubt in the SEC, Florida is better
Texas AM -3.5
Colorado in bad shape and off a 58-0 pasting at Mizzou, where head coach Hawkins benched his own kid at QB to start a freshman. Not good news for Colorado traveling back to back to play a Texas AM team improving weekly who won at Ames Iowa last week, a tough place to play, and scoring over 40 points in the process. A Tale of 2 teams going in totally different directions, and the offense of Colorado is woeful. Playing ion College Station worth 4 points alone here not to mention Texas AM is a better team.
Arkansas +7
OK..whats the big deal about Tulsa. yeah they ran the score up against a bunch of nobodies. Big Deal. They looked OK at best on TV Sunday night against a bad Cent. Florida team with a frosh QB. A HUGE step up in class against an improving Arkansas team whose has a solid running game that will move the chains and eat the clock. I know some of the Tulsa coaches used to be at Arkansas and that angle, but this team against a SEC team laying a TD on the road? Arkansas at home here catching Tulsa on a short week off an emotional game.
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FLORIDA
Cannot back Georgia here with Florida playing so well. This is the worlds largest cocktail party in Jacksonville, but Florida has the ability to shut down the run, which forces the Bulldogs out of their game plan. QB Tebow is now on fire and with some big time revenge on the side of Florida who lost by 12 last year, I smell plenty of weak ness's I have noticed with Georgia coming to the forefront here. Florida offense is on fire, scoring 152 points in their last 3 games against SEC foes. Bulldog secondary average at best and suspect here, and with QB Tebow leading the SEC in pass efficiency, they are worth the spread here as I think Florida far more capable of making big plays...this is for the East title no doubt in the SEC, Florida is better
Texas AM -3.5
Colorado in bad shape and off a 58-0 pasting at Mizzou, where head coach Hawkins benched his own kid at QB to start a freshman. Not good news for Colorado traveling back to back to play a Texas AM team improving weekly who won at Ames Iowa last week, a tough place to play, and scoring over 40 points in the process. A Tale of 2 teams going in totally different directions, and the offense of Colorado is woeful. Playing ion College Station worth 4 points alone here not to mention Texas AM is a better team.
Arkansas +7
OK..whats the big deal about Tulsa. yeah they ran the score up against a bunch of nobodies. Big Deal. They looked OK at best on TV Sunday night against a bad Cent. Florida team with a frosh QB. A HUGE step up in class against an improving Arkansas team whose has a solid running game that will move the chains and eat the clock. I know some of the Tulsa coaches used to be at Arkansas and that angle, but this team against a SEC team laying a TD on the road? Arkansas at home here catching Tulsa on a short week off an emotional game.
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ASA
College Football Picks
11/1/2008
11:30:00 AM Kansas State Wildcats (+9)
over KANSAS JAYHAWKS
ASA 3-Star Kansas State (+9) over Kansas - 11:30 am CST
Go with K-State.
1:00:00 PM TEXAS A&M AGGIES (-3.5)
over Colorado Buffaloes
ASA 5-Star Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. Colorado – 1:00 pm CST
We’ll gladly side with an improving Aggie team at home here.
11/1/2008
1:00:00 PM Kent Golden Flashes (+6.5)
over BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
ASA's 6-Star Kent +6.5 over Bowling Green, Saturday, November 1st
Kent wins this one SU.
11/1/2008
2:00:00 PM Arkansas State Indians (+24)
over ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
ASA 3-Star Arkansas State (+24) over Alabama - 2:00 pm CST
College Football Picks
11/1/2008
11:30:00 AM Kansas State Wildcats (+9)
over KANSAS JAYHAWKS
ASA 3-Star Kansas State (+9) over Kansas - 11:30 am CST
Go with K-State.
1:00:00 PM TEXAS A&M AGGIES (-3.5)
over Colorado Buffaloes
ASA 5-Star Texas A&M (-3.5) vs. Colorado – 1:00 pm CST
We’ll gladly side with an improving Aggie team at home here.
11/1/2008
1:00:00 PM Kent Golden Flashes (+6.5)
over BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
ASA's 6-Star Kent +6.5 over Bowling Green, Saturday, November 1st
Kent wins this one SU.
11/1/2008
2:00:00 PM Arkansas State Indians (+24)
over ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
ASA 3-Star Arkansas State (+24) over Alabama - 2:00 pm CST
Robert Ferringo College
4-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 57.5 Troy at Louisiana-Monroe (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #398 Louisiana-Monroe (+10) over Troy (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov 1)
5-Unit Play. Take #355 Temple (+7) over Navy (3:30 p.m.Saturday, Nov. 1)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #374 New Mexico State (+21) over Boise State (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #330 Mississippi (-6.5) over Auburn (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #357 Kansas State (+10) over Kansas (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #346 South Carolina (-5.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #322 Minnesota (-7) over Northwestern (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #322 Minnesota (-0.5) over Northwestern AND Take #387 Utah (-1) over New Mexico
Note: This is a 6.5-point teaser.
2-Unit Play. Take #365 Clemson (+4) over Boston College (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #347 Florida (-6) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #377 Florida State (+2.5) over Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #377 Florida State (+120) over Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #385 Rice (-2.5) over UTEP (9 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #315 Miami (+2) over Virginia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #315 Miami (+115) over Virginia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
I also have leans on Air Force, Tulane, UL-L, Utah, SJSU, Wisconsin, Arkansas and Bowling Green.
4-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 57.5 Troy at Louisiana-Monroe (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #398 Louisiana-Monroe (+10) over Troy (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov 1)
5-Unit Play. Take #355 Temple (+7) over Navy (3:30 p.m.Saturday, Nov. 1)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #374 New Mexico State (+21) over Boise State (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #330 Mississippi (-6.5) over Auburn (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2.5-Unit Play. Take #357 Kansas State (+10) over Kansas (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #346 South Carolina (-5.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #322 Minnesota (-7) over Northwestern (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #322 Minnesota (-0.5) over Northwestern AND Take #387 Utah (-1) over New Mexico
Note: This is a 6.5-point teaser.
2-Unit Play. Take #365 Clemson (+4) over Boston College (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #347 Florida (-6) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #377 Florida State (+2.5) over Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #377 Florida State (+120) over Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
2-Unit Play. Take #385 Rice (-2.5) over UTEP (9 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 1)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #315 Miami (+2) over Virginia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
1-Unit Play. Take #315 Miami (+115) over Virginia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 1)
I also have leans on Air Force, Tulane, UL-L, Utah, SJSU, Wisconsin, Arkansas and Bowling Green.
Ethan Law
This Saturday the undefeated Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS) will try to keep their perfect season going when they travel to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-5 SU & 3-4 ATS). If you look at the raw numbers, Arkansas does not have a chance to keep this one close. Tulsa leads the country in scoring, averaging 55.6 points a game. They are also the 1st ranked team in yardage per game, averaging an obscene 601.1 yards per contest! They are an equal opportunity offense also, with 2768 yards passing and 2041 yards rushing. When they run the ball they average 5.9 yards per carry with 4 different ball carriers totaling over 200 yards this year, each of them averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry! They are led on offense by senior quarterback David Johnson who has thrown 32 touchdown passes with only 9 interceptions. I could go on and on but I think you get the point. Tulsa has a very good offense. I am not going to try to convince you otherwise, but let's at least look at the competition they have amassed these eye-popping numbers against. Conf-USA has plenty of good offensive teams, but defense is not a staple of that conference. While looking at the conference teams that Tulsa has played thus far, I found it very interesting that they have not even faced a team ranked in the top 6 in Conf-USA yet! That's right, Tulsa has faced only the worst defenses in their defense deficient conference. Then you add a non-conf game against North Texas (dead last 120th ranked defense), and it becomes easier to see why Tulsa has those unbelievable offensive numbers. Indeed, Tulsa has posted those gaudy point totals against the 120th, 117th, 114th, 113th, 107th, and 93rd ranked defenses in the country! Not exactly your who's who in stop units. Enter Arkansas.
The Razorbacks come from the most powerful conference in the country. It is the deepest, and also the most talented conference in the country, both offensively and defensively. Arkansas has played to this point probably the most brutal schedule in the country, including SEC foes #2 ranked Alabama, #5 ranked Florida, and Auburn, which has a great defense. If that were not bad enough, they also had a non-conf game against #1 Texas! Tulsa will in fact be the 5th ranked team the Razorbacks have faced this year. They have faced Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, so facing this Tulsa offense led by David Johnson (who?) will not phase them. Those games against Florida and Texas were not remotely close, but they were blowouts because those teams also play defense, Tulsa does not. Tulsa is allowing 26.1 points a game, and that was against some of the worst teams in the country! The Razorbacks boast the SEC's leading rusher, junior tailback Michael Smith who has 920 rushing yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Let those numbers sink in a bit 5.6 yards per carry against some top notch defensive teams. Texas and Alabama are tied for 5th in the country, both allowing just 2.6 yards per carry. Florida allows 3.4, Auburn allows 3.8, Kentucky 3.8, and Mississippi allows 3.1! Those are the defenses that Michael Smith has averaged 5.6 yards per carry against, quite impressive if you ask me. What better way to combat an unstoppable offense then to run and run and run, killing the clock, shortening the game, and limiting Tulsa's possessions. Well, they may not actually limit Tulsa's possessions because I think Arkansas will run up and down the field on Tulsa, and score often. Arkansas' much maligned defense has improved steadily this season, which is to be expected from such a young unit. They need only slow Tulsa down to make this a close game, a game Arkansas has a better that a "fighter's chance" to win.
It is also worth noting that this will be Tulsa's first game on the road this year in front of a huge hostile crowd. Tulsa's 3 road games to date at UAB, No Texas, and SMU will hardly prepare them for the raucous atmosphere at an SEC venue. History suggests that Tulsa may be in over their heads here also, since the Razorbacks have beaten Tulsa 16 consecutive times. As a matter of fact, the last time these 2 teams met Arkansas was a 36.5 point favorite! The Razorbacks last 3 results show their improvement, with 2 very tough losses and a win over Auburn. For them to have any hope to have a chance at a bowl game they need a win here, and they would like nothing more than to end Tulsa's perfect season. The pressure on Tulsa mounts with each passing week, to remain unbeaten, as that is their only chance to hit the jackpot and a BCS bowl invite. Coming to a tough SEC venue that will have a homecoming crowd in full voice, may not be the best setting for their winning streak to continue. The SEC is 57-12 SU when hosting a Conf-USA team, and we need only keep it close to cover. Take the points but I will call for the outright upset.
Verdict: Tulsa 19, Arkansas 28
PLAY 1* UNIT 2% ON ARKANSAS +7
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This Saturday the undefeated Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (8-0 SU & 6-1 ATS) will try to keep their perfect season going when they travel to Fayetteville to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-5 SU & 3-4 ATS). If you look at the raw numbers, Arkansas does not have a chance to keep this one close. Tulsa leads the country in scoring, averaging 55.6 points a game. They are also the 1st ranked team in yardage per game, averaging an obscene 601.1 yards per contest! They are an equal opportunity offense also, with 2768 yards passing and 2041 yards rushing. When they run the ball they average 5.9 yards per carry with 4 different ball carriers totaling over 200 yards this year, each of them averaging more than 5.5 yards per carry! They are led on offense by senior quarterback David Johnson who has thrown 32 touchdown passes with only 9 interceptions. I could go on and on but I think you get the point. Tulsa has a very good offense. I am not going to try to convince you otherwise, but let's at least look at the competition they have amassed these eye-popping numbers against. Conf-USA has plenty of good offensive teams, but defense is not a staple of that conference. While looking at the conference teams that Tulsa has played thus far, I found it very interesting that they have not even faced a team ranked in the top 6 in Conf-USA yet! That's right, Tulsa has faced only the worst defenses in their defense deficient conference. Then you add a non-conf game against North Texas (dead last 120th ranked defense), and it becomes easier to see why Tulsa has those unbelievable offensive numbers. Indeed, Tulsa has posted those gaudy point totals against the 120th, 117th, 114th, 113th, 107th, and 93rd ranked defenses in the country! Not exactly your who's who in stop units. Enter Arkansas.
The Razorbacks come from the most powerful conference in the country. It is the deepest, and also the most talented conference in the country, both offensively and defensively. Arkansas has played to this point probably the most brutal schedule in the country, including SEC foes #2 ranked Alabama, #5 ranked Florida, and Auburn, which has a great defense. If that were not bad enough, they also had a non-conf game against #1 Texas! Tulsa will in fact be the 5th ranked team the Razorbacks have faced this year. They have faced Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, so facing this Tulsa offense led by David Johnson (who?) will not phase them. Those games against Florida and Texas were not remotely close, but they were blowouts because those teams also play defense, Tulsa does not. Tulsa is allowing 26.1 points a game, and that was against some of the worst teams in the country! The Razorbacks boast the SEC's leading rusher, junior tailback Michael Smith who has 920 rushing yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Let those numbers sink in a bit 5.6 yards per carry against some top notch defensive teams. Texas and Alabama are tied for 5th in the country, both allowing just 2.6 yards per carry. Florida allows 3.4, Auburn allows 3.8, Kentucky 3.8, and Mississippi allows 3.1! Those are the defenses that Michael Smith has averaged 5.6 yards per carry against, quite impressive if you ask me. What better way to combat an unstoppable offense then to run and run and run, killing the clock, shortening the game, and limiting Tulsa's possessions. Well, they may not actually limit Tulsa's possessions because I think Arkansas will run up and down the field on Tulsa, and score often. Arkansas' much maligned defense has improved steadily this season, which is to be expected from such a young unit. They need only slow Tulsa down to make this a close game, a game Arkansas has a better that a "fighter's chance" to win.
It is also worth noting that this will be Tulsa's first game on the road this year in front of a huge hostile crowd. Tulsa's 3 road games to date at UAB, No Texas, and SMU will hardly prepare them for the raucous atmosphere at an SEC venue. History suggests that Tulsa may be in over their heads here also, since the Razorbacks have beaten Tulsa 16 consecutive times. As a matter of fact, the last time these 2 teams met Arkansas was a 36.5 point favorite! The Razorbacks last 3 results show their improvement, with 2 very tough losses and a win over Auburn. For them to have any hope to have a chance at a bowl game they need a win here, and they would like nothing more than to end Tulsa's perfect season. The pressure on Tulsa mounts with each passing week, to remain unbeaten, as that is their only chance to hit the jackpot and a BCS bowl invite. Coming to a tough SEC venue that will have a homecoming crowd in full voice, may not be the best setting for their winning streak to continue. The SEC is 57-12 SU when hosting a Conf-USA team, and we need only keep it close to cover. Take the points but I will call for the outright upset.
Verdict: Tulsa 19, Arkansas 28
PLAY 1* UNIT 2% ON ARKANSAS +7
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Sat, 11/01/08 - 12:30 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
triple-dime bet329 Auburn 6.5 (-110) Bodog vs 330 Mississippi
Analysis:
Finally handicappers get to play the Auburn Tigers at an UNDERVALUED price, as they've suffered through a 1-8 ATS mark.
First off - Tommy Tuberville is on a major "hot seat" and he's got an opponent that he's very familiar with. Tuberville was at Ole Miss before heading to Auburn.
Auburn was in a terrible spot last week - playing on the road on Thursday night - against one of the best home teams in America that was very accustomed to playing the midweek tilt.
The Tigers brought in a new offensive coordinator and it made significant improvement in the first half against the Mountaineers before sputtering in the second half. With more than a regular week to prepare - things will be much tighter against the Rebels.
Ole Miss is ripe for an upset - after playing against head coach Houston Nutt's former team. Tuberville knows this, as the Tigers held Nutt's Razorbacks to just 67 yards rushing last year......that was with two first round draft picks in the same backfield.
One of the best underdogs in CFB rises up and grabs the cash
Sat, 11/01/08 - 2:30 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet342 Louisiana Tech 5.5 (-110) SportBet vs 341 Fresno St.
Analysis:
Play Louisiana Tech +5.5 at Bookmaker.com
Fresno State is on its last leg due to the amount of travel its been through this season and it will certainly show up down in the deep south on Saturday. At the end of the 2008 regular season - this team will have traveled more miles than any team in the country outside of Hawaii.
The Bulldogs barely survived at Utah State last week - thanks to a 58-yard field goal, but things get much tougher against a LA Tech team that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season.
Louisiana Tech is a dominant 3-0 ATS at home this season and it continues this Saturday!
Sat, 11/01/08 - 8:00 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet380 LSU -26.5 (-110) SportBet vs 379 Tulane
Analysis:
I'll be quick to point out that Nick Saban's fingerprint has almost faded away in terms of players that are currently on the LSU roster, as he may have recruited a few - but I'll assure you that current head coach Les Miles will have the Tigers ready to roar against Tulane before next week's monumental matchup.
The Tigers were absolutely embarassed at home last week against the Georgia Bulldogs. This is VERY BAD NEWS for a very outmanned Tulane team that head coach Bob Toledo coins as "beat up". A Green Wave team that was absolutely mauled by Army.....Now they walk into a graveyard, as Tigers Stadium is a much different place at night then under the sun.
Miles has never lost two consecutive games at LSU during his reign and his team is 8-1 ATS in those contests. He was also very prolific in bouncing back in Stillwater before heading south to LSU.
Lay the points in an absolute blowout!
triple-dime bet329 Auburn 6.5 (-110) Bodog vs 330 Mississippi
Analysis:
Finally handicappers get to play the Auburn Tigers at an UNDERVALUED price, as they've suffered through a 1-8 ATS mark.
First off - Tommy Tuberville is on a major "hot seat" and he's got an opponent that he's very familiar with. Tuberville was at Ole Miss before heading to Auburn.
Auburn was in a terrible spot last week - playing on the road on Thursday night - against one of the best home teams in America that was very accustomed to playing the midweek tilt.
The Tigers brought in a new offensive coordinator and it made significant improvement in the first half against the Mountaineers before sputtering in the second half. With more than a regular week to prepare - things will be much tighter against the Rebels.
Ole Miss is ripe for an upset - after playing against head coach Houston Nutt's former team. Tuberville knows this, as the Tigers held Nutt's Razorbacks to just 67 yards rushing last year......that was with two first round draft picks in the same backfield.
One of the best underdogs in CFB rises up and grabs the cash
Sat, 11/01/08 - 2:30 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet342 Louisiana Tech 5.5 (-110) SportBet vs 341 Fresno St.
Analysis:
Play Louisiana Tech +5.5 at Bookmaker.com
Fresno State is on its last leg due to the amount of travel its been through this season and it will certainly show up down in the deep south on Saturday. At the end of the 2008 regular season - this team will have traveled more miles than any team in the country outside of Hawaii.
The Bulldogs barely survived at Utah State last week - thanks to a 58-yard field goal, but things get much tougher against a LA Tech team that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher all season.
Louisiana Tech is a dominant 3-0 ATS at home this season and it continues this Saturday!
Sat, 11/01/08 - 8:00 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet380 LSU -26.5 (-110) SportBet vs 379 Tulane
Analysis:
I'll be quick to point out that Nick Saban's fingerprint has almost faded away in terms of players that are currently on the LSU roster, as he may have recruited a few - but I'll assure you that current head coach Les Miles will have the Tigers ready to roar against Tulane before next week's monumental matchup.
The Tigers were absolutely embarassed at home last week against the Georgia Bulldogs. This is VERY BAD NEWS for a very outmanned Tulane team that head coach Bob Toledo coins as "beat up". A Green Wave team that was absolutely mauled by Army.....Now they walk into a graveyard, as Tigers Stadium is a much different place at night then under the sun.
Miles has never lost two consecutive games at LSU during his reign and his team is 8-1 ATS in those contests. He was also very prolific in bouncing back in Stillwater before heading south to LSU.
Lay the points in an absolute blowout!
Sat, 11/01/08 - 12:00 PMStephen Nover | CFB Side
double-dime bet310 Indiana -2.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 309 Cent. Michigan
Analysis:
Indiana -2
Analysis: Indiana got its confidence and momentum back last week when it upset Northwestern.
The Hoosisers should be fine here with Kellen Lewis expected back at quarterback after being out a couple of games with an ankle injury.
Indiana needs a victory here to keep alive its bowl hopes. The Hooisers should get it against Central Michigan, a MAC school that has lost its last 11 regular-season non-conference road games.
The Chippewas lack speed on defense to contend with the Hooisers and are out-sized on the offensive and defensive lines. Indiana is 9-3-2 against the spread versus MAC schools.
The level of competition, coupled with Indiana's size and speed advantage, along with a low spread puts me on Indiana for a one-unit investment.
Sat, 11/01/08 - 3:30 PMStephen Nover | CFB Side
double-dime bet378 Georgia Tech -2.5 (-110) Bodog vs 377 Florida St.
Analysis:
Georgia Tech -2.5
Analysis: Put me in the corner of those who believe Florida State is overrated. The Seminoles have played two ranked teams. They lost 12-3 to Wake Forest and beat Virginia last week, 30-20, at home after the Hokies lost their first two quarterbacks.
Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson is one of my favorite coaches. The Yellow Jackets are ninth in the nation in rushing and lead the ACC in this category. Their offensive line will control the line of scrimmage.
Look for Johnson to have some new wrinkles to further confuse the overaggressive Seminoles.
double-dime bet310 Indiana -2.0 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 309 Cent. Michigan
Analysis:
Indiana -2
Analysis: Indiana got its confidence and momentum back last week when it upset Northwestern.
The Hoosisers should be fine here with Kellen Lewis expected back at quarterback after being out a couple of games with an ankle injury.
Indiana needs a victory here to keep alive its bowl hopes. The Hooisers should get it against Central Michigan, a MAC school that has lost its last 11 regular-season non-conference road games.
The Chippewas lack speed on defense to contend with the Hooisers and are out-sized on the offensive and defensive lines. Indiana is 9-3-2 against the spread versus MAC schools.
The level of competition, coupled with Indiana's size and speed advantage, along with a low spread puts me on Indiana for a one-unit investment.
Sat, 11/01/08 - 3:30 PMStephen Nover | CFB Side
double-dime bet378 Georgia Tech -2.5 (-110) Bodog vs 377 Florida St.
Analysis:
Georgia Tech -2.5
Analysis: Put me in the corner of those who believe Florida State is overrated. The Seminoles have played two ranked teams. They lost 12-3 to Wake Forest and beat Virginia last week, 30-20, at home after the Hokies lost their first two quarterbacks.
Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson is one of my favorite coaches. The Yellow Jackets are ninth in the nation in rushing and lead the ACC in this category. Their offensive line will control the line of scrimmage.
Look for Johnson to have some new wrinkles to further confuse the overaggressive Seminoles.
