Thanks for the help today on trying to locate Tony Finn's GOM play and what team is backing with his current 10-0 run.. I found a player who has a WagerTalk.com -- Tony Finn sub-- and he is on Iowa State
If there were one spot that figures to be stacked against the Jayhawks this month, this is the test, when Kansas travels to take on Iowa State at the Hilton. The Cyclones defeated the Jayhawks 94-83 in the 2014 Big 12 tournament semifinals behind 25 points from forward Georges Niang after losing both regular-season meetings last season, losses that were all in all, wins, when you look at the big picture. This Cyclones program is now, arguably, the second best staff, recruiting syndicate and a venue that isn't the Phog, but a house that will become nightmarish under Freddy "Mayor" Hoiberg.
The Hilton is a chaotic for visiting teams, and the current state of basketball in Ames is solid, under the direction of the Mayor. The Jayhawks, have found some juice since losing to Temple in Philly, but their schedule since has offered up a five game winning streak that isn't all that...against three cupcakes and two poorly coached opponents in Baylor and Oki State. These two games saw Kansas come out a winner, both SU and ATS, but when examining the underlying peripherals they were far from impressive and easily could be have been different. And yes, that can be said for a dozen games in most schedules for most schools, but this is Jay-public and Self's group has to be better than good if you are backing this bunch.
The Jayhawks got more than their stomach full of home cooking in the last game against Travis Ford's Cowboys a game they won by 10, on the surface. The underlying peripherals for the Hawks in their last eight games have been trending south. In the last 13 lined games for Self's squad they have found the ATS winners circle on 10 occasions, but XATS in this time period is 5-8 as opposed to their 10-3 against the spread record. We won't write the novel it would take to explain the XATS but several key variables make Kansas untrustworthy away from Phog Allen moving forward.
Kansas held its first three conference opponents to 57 points or fewer. This trend not only ends today, but gets obliterated. Baylor, Texas Tech and Oki State are not going to blow up scoreboards nor put their opponents on the mat because of their ability to submit and the Jayhawks are going to have every fiber in their body tested with a Sat Night crowd that includes the return of ALL STUDENT body whom will be full of beer and whiskey, and facing a pace they haven't seen since late November when they played Rhode Island. The home cooking will be spicy hot tonight and it will be no surprise if Kansas is facing a double digit deficit for 30 minutes-plus resulting in a double digit loss at the Hilton haunt.
The oddsmakers have done their best to keep the opening number in this affair at four, and the public has aided in our quest, moving the current figures between 3.5 and the opening 4.
The Cyclones have lost to Maryland at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. A game they dropped SU and ATS as a four-point favorite. And a loss by 9 while shooting only 29 percent from the floor... nothing else can excuse the loss in an arena they are familiar with. going 19-of-64 from the floor, including 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. These kinds of numbers won't allow you to defeat Div III teams, and as the results reveal, not a good Maryland group.
The Clones last two losses, both of which teetered on that fine line, were wins inside of the Finn Factor XATS chart. One loss, in Waco, was a true road tilt that saw them fall behind 16-1 in the first six minutes, and one in a neutral setting. The losses were by one at Baylor and by four to South Carolina, in Brooklyn, respectively.
Kansas at Iowa St (-4, 147)
9:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 17, 2015
James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
Look for Niang, who was named to the Wooden Award Midseason Top 25 on Wednesday with an average of 15 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists per game, to create serious issues for the a nightmare matchup for the Hawks.
And while it is fair to be excited about the market rise of highly touted freshman Kelly Oubre - he gets a cold welcome to the Big 12 road tonight - in a game he will struggle... trust us -- even though we hesitate to write or verbalize such prognostications. Oubre is going to be a very good player but after stomping his feet for the first two months of the season, not getting playing time under no nonsense Bill Self, he is now getting too cocky and it will come back to bite him. And while it may not be tonight... we believe there is a good chance this will be his fall from "recent" grace.
The Jayhawks haven't been a particularly impressive offensive club this season averaging 71 points per game and 67 with the Finn Factor adjustment. At the Phog they shot a mere 37.2 percent in Tuesday's 67-57 win over No. 24 Oklahoma State. They held the Cowboys to 31.4 percent shooting, though, and have limited opponents to 36.1 percent and an average of 57.8 points during a five-game winning streak.. BUT.- BUT - BUT. as we mentioned the first three league tilts were not the type of offense, with the type of pace, that Iowa State presents. And they face the Big 12's second toughest venue to win in. No home cooking for the J-Hawks tonight
The probability of the Hawks winning tonight, according to the Finn Factor charts, are remarkably and stunningly minimal when you look at all of the actual variables and underlying peripherals. What the Big 12 wants, the Big 12 gets, and that is a team that will be the next huge rivalry for Bill Self and the Hawks... that being the Clones and Hoiberg.
The Cyclones, are an up-tempo lanky bunch, that pass the ball well. They are the nation's best with 18.5 assists per game and these combinations are all a matchup disaster for the defensive system Bill Self runs.
This Kansas team will be ready to play come February and March, as most Bill Self teams are, but this Iowa State squad, under the direction of the Mayor, is as good as any team in the county -- and in our belief is one of the schools that matches up well with Kentucky.
IOWA STATE CYCLONES BY 10-PLUS POINTS TONIGHT
IOWA STATE -4
If there were one spot that figures to be stacked against the Jayhawks this month, this is the test, when Kansas travels to take on Iowa State at the Hilton. The Cyclones defeated the Jayhawks 94-83 in the 2014 Big 12 tournament semifinals behind 25 points from forward Georges Niang after losing both regular-season meetings last season, losses that were all in all, wins, when you look at the big picture. This Cyclones program is now, arguably, the second best staff, recruiting syndicate and a venue that isn't the Phog, but a house that will become nightmarish under Freddy "Mayor" Hoiberg.
The Hilton is a chaotic for visiting teams, and the current state of basketball in Ames is solid, under the direction of the Mayor. The Jayhawks, have found some juice since losing to Temple in Philly, but their schedule since has offered up a five game winning streak that isn't all that...against three cupcakes and two poorly coached opponents in Baylor and Oki State. These two games saw Kansas come out a winner, both SU and ATS, but when examining the underlying peripherals they were far from impressive and easily could be have been different. And yes, that can be said for a dozen games in most schedules for most schools, but this is Jay-public and Self's group has to be better than good if you are backing this bunch.
The Jayhawks got more than their stomach full of home cooking in the last game against Travis Ford's Cowboys a game they won by 10, on the surface. The underlying peripherals for the Hawks in their last eight games have been trending south. In the last 13 lined games for Self's squad they have found the ATS winners circle on 10 occasions, but XATS in this time period is 5-8 as opposed to their 10-3 against the spread record. We won't write the novel it would take to explain the XATS but several key variables make Kansas untrustworthy away from Phog Allen moving forward.
Kansas held its first three conference opponents to 57 points or fewer. This trend not only ends today, but gets obliterated. Baylor, Texas Tech and Oki State are not going to blow up scoreboards nor put their opponents on the mat because of their ability to submit and the Jayhawks are going to have every fiber in their body tested with a Sat Night crowd that includes the return of ALL STUDENT body whom will be full of beer and whiskey, and facing a pace they haven't seen since late November when they played Rhode Island. The home cooking will be spicy hot tonight and it will be no surprise if Kansas is facing a double digit deficit for 30 minutes-plus resulting in a double digit loss at the Hilton haunt.
The oddsmakers have done their best to keep the opening number in this affair at four, and the public has aided in our quest, moving the current figures between 3.5 and the opening 4.
The Cyclones have lost to Maryland at the Sprint Center in Kansas City. A game they dropped SU and ATS as a four-point favorite. And a loss by 9 while shooting only 29 percent from the floor... nothing else can excuse the loss in an arena they are familiar with. going 19-of-64 from the floor, including 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. These kinds of numbers won't allow you to defeat Div III teams, and as the results reveal, not a good Maryland group.
The Clones last two losses, both of which teetered on that fine line, were wins inside of the Finn Factor XATS chart. One loss, in Waco, was a true road tilt that saw them fall behind 16-1 in the first six minutes, and one in a neutral setting. The losses were by one at Baylor and by four to South Carolina, in Brooklyn, respectively.
Kansas at Iowa St (-4, 147)
9:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 17, 2015
James H. Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
Look for Niang, who was named to the Wooden Award Midseason Top 25 on Wednesday with an average of 15 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists per game, to create serious issues for the a nightmare matchup for the Hawks.
And while it is fair to be excited about the market rise of highly touted freshman Kelly Oubre - he gets a cold welcome to the Big 12 road tonight - in a game he will struggle... trust us -- even though we hesitate to write or verbalize such prognostications. Oubre is going to be a very good player but after stomping his feet for the first two months of the season, not getting playing time under no nonsense Bill Self, he is now getting too cocky and it will come back to bite him. And while it may not be tonight... we believe there is a good chance this will be his fall from "recent" grace.
The Jayhawks haven't been a particularly impressive offensive club this season averaging 71 points per game and 67 with the Finn Factor adjustment. At the Phog they shot a mere 37.2 percent in Tuesday's 67-57 win over No. 24 Oklahoma State. They held the Cowboys to 31.4 percent shooting, though, and have limited opponents to 36.1 percent and an average of 57.8 points during a five-game winning streak.. BUT.- BUT - BUT. as we mentioned the first three league tilts were not the type of offense, with the type of pace, that Iowa State presents. And they face the Big 12's second toughest venue to win in. No home cooking for the J-Hawks tonight
The probability of the Hawks winning tonight, according to the Finn Factor charts, are remarkably and stunningly minimal when you look at all of the actual variables and underlying peripherals. What the Big 12 wants, the Big 12 gets, and that is a team that will be the next huge rivalry for Bill Self and the Hawks... that being the Clones and Hoiberg.
The Cyclones, are an up-tempo lanky bunch, that pass the ball well. They are the nation's best with 18.5 assists per game and these combinations are all a matchup disaster for the defensive system Bill Self runs.
This Kansas team will be ready to play come February and March, as most Bill Self teams are, but this Iowa State squad, under the direction of the Mayor, is as good as any team in the county -- and in our belief is one of the schools that matches up well with Kentucky.
IOWA STATE CYCLONES BY 10-PLUS POINTS TONIGHT
IOWA STATE -4
