VegasButcher
Atlanta Hawks -3
Atlanta is playing their 4th game in 5 nights but they’ve been preparing for this by resting various starters in their games @ PHI and @ BOS earlier in the week. Yesterday’s blowout win @ Toronto enabled the Hawks to rest players as well, with only Millsap logging more than 30 minutes (he was at 33). On the other hand, Bulls are in a 3in4 spot while also playing their 6th game in 9 days. Yesterday’s game @ BOS was close throughout until the midpoint of the 4th quarter, when the Bulls finally pulled away. All 5 starters were over 31 minutes with Gibson and Butler @ 39, Hinrich, Rose, and Gasol at 34, 33, and 31 respectively. It’s important to note that Bulls are also undermanned, as they are missing two key starters – Noah and Dunleavy. Without Noah, their “not so stout” defense gets worse, and of course Dunleavy’s perimeter shooting will be greatly missed against such an efficient scoring team like the Hawks. Quite simply, Hawks are in a much better ‘physical’ shape AND they’re also a ‘better’ team in this particular matchup today. Bulls are only 7-14 ATS at home and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. Hard to see them winning tonight.
Washington Wizards -5
Ah, the beauty of playing b2b against the same team. The Wizards got stomped at home by Brooklyn yesterday but they have a chance at ‘redemption’ the very next night. Washington had 19 TO’s with a TO-rate of 19.2% but BKN is middling 17th in forced TO-rate @ 13.4%. Hard to see that repeating itself. In addition, Brooklyn’s 112 Efficiency Rating was way above their 24th ranked mark of 103. The Wizards were at least able to limit their players’ minutes, as nobody logged more than 26 besides Wall who only played 31. I expect Washington to come out much better ‘defensively’ in tonight’s rematch, and I expect Brooklyn’s OffEff to be much different from yesterday. While Washington limited their players’ minutes as the game was getting away from them, Brooklyn’s key players logged some heavy ones: Joe Johnson 38, Jack 35, Bogdanovic 32. At the same time Garnett sometimes rests on b2b’s so he might not be available today. Brooklyn played a good game yesterday but that was their 1st win in the last 8. This team is looking to move assets and start the rebuilding process, while Washington is in the middle of a playoff “seeding” race. I like the Wizards to bounce back tonight.
Los Angeles Clippers -6.5
Rudy Gay is out, Kings have virtually zero bench-depth, and DeMarcus Cousins was seen limping throughout yesterday’s game. Now the Kings have to face this Clippers team coming off a home-loss. Not a good situation to be in. Sacramento is a bad defensive team ranking 23rd in DefEff and facing LA’s elite offense (#3 OffEff) won’t be easy. In addition, the TO-margin should be greatly in LA’s favor here. The clippers are 5th in TO-rate while the Kings are 27th. When these teams met very early in the season (Nov 2nd), the Clippers were in the midst of a very slow start (I believe like 0-8 ATS to start the year), and behind a dominant Cousins performance (34 points and 17 rebounds) the Kings pulled out a road upset. It was Darren Collison’s first game back in LA against his last-year’s mates, so I’m sure the Kings’ effort was heightened a bit due to that. I don’t foresee the same energy level in this rematch, and without Gay, I just don’t believe Sacramento can score enough to keep up with the Clips. I have this one at -8 LAC and believe they have a strong shot for a cover in this one.
Atlanta Hawks -3
Atlanta is playing their 4th game in 5 nights but they’ve been preparing for this by resting various starters in their games @ PHI and @ BOS earlier in the week. Yesterday’s blowout win @ Toronto enabled the Hawks to rest players as well, with only Millsap logging more than 30 minutes (he was at 33). On the other hand, Bulls are in a 3in4 spot while also playing their 6th game in 9 days. Yesterday’s game @ BOS was close throughout until the midpoint of the 4th quarter, when the Bulls finally pulled away. All 5 starters were over 31 minutes with Gibson and Butler @ 39, Hinrich, Rose, and Gasol at 34, 33, and 31 respectively. It’s important to note that Bulls are also undermanned, as they are missing two key starters – Noah and Dunleavy. Without Noah, their “not so stout” defense gets worse, and of course Dunleavy’s perimeter shooting will be greatly missed against such an efficient scoring team like the Hawks. Quite simply, Hawks are in a much better ‘physical’ shape AND they’re also a ‘better’ team in this particular matchup today. Bulls are only 7-14 ATS at home and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. Hard to see them winning tonight.
Washington Wizards -5
Ah, the beauty of playing b2b against the same team. The Wizards got stomped at home by Brooklyn yesterday but they have a chance at ‘redemption’ the very next night. Washington had 19 TO’s with a TO-rate of 19.2% but BKN is middling 17th in forced TO-rate @ 13.4%. Hard to see that repeating itself. In addition, Brooklyn’s 112 Efficiency Rating was way above their 24th ranked mark of 103. The Wizards were at least able to limit their players’ minutes, as nobody logged more than 26 besides Wall who only played 31. I expect Washington to come out much better ‘defensively’ in tonight’s rematch, and I expect Brooklyn’s OffEff to be much different from yesterday. While Washington limited their players’ minutes as the game was getting away from them, Brooklyn’s key players logged some heavy ones: Joe Johnson 38, Jack 35, Bogdanovic 32. At the same time Garnett sometimes rests on b2b’s so he might not be available today. Brooklyn played a good game yesterday but that was their 1st win in the last 8. This team is looking to move assets and start the rebuilding process, while Washington is in the middle of a playoff “seeding” race. I like the Wizards to bounce back tonight.
Los Angeles Clippers -6.5
Rudy Gay is out, Kings have virtually zero bench-depth, and DeMarcus Cousins was seen limping throughout yesterday’s game. Now the Kings have to face this Clippers team coming off a home-loss. Not a good situation to be in. Sacramento is a bad defensive team ranking 23rd in DefEff and facing LA’s elite offense (#3 OffEff) won’t be easy. In addition, the TO-margin should be greatly in LA’s favor here. The clippers are 5th in TO-rate while the Kings are 27th. When these teams met very early in the season (Nov 2nd), the Clippers were in the midst of a very slow start (I believe like 0-8 ATS to start the year), and behind a dominant Cousins performance (34 points and 17 rebounds) the Kings pulled out a road upset. It was Darren Collison’s first game back in LA against his last-year’s mates, so I’m sure the Kings’ effort was heightened a bit due to that. I don’t foresee the same energy level in this rematch, and without Gay, I just don’t believe Sacramento can score enough to keep up with the Clips. I have this one at -8 LAC and believe they have a strong shot for a cover in this one.
Dr. Bob
*Virginia (-12 ½) over BOSTON COLLEGE
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 547
Virginia coach Tony Bennett struggled in his first season in 2009-10, but his Cavaliers have been a consistently underrated team under his tutelage – compiling an impressive 76-43-1 ATS record since the 2010-11 campaign. Virginia is at their best when Bennett has 3 or more days off to prepare his team for an opponent and the Cavaliers are 40-13 ATS in regular season games after 3 or more days off as long as they’re not laying more than 14 points, including 19 straight spread wins when favored from 4 ½ to 14 points. My ratings favor the Cavaliers by 13 ½ points, so their isn’t really any line value, but Virginia matches up well with a Boston College team that struggles with their outside shooting (29.4% on 3-point shots). Teams that can’t shoot have a major issue against a Virginia defense that is incredibly tough to get to the rim against. The Cavaliers are 3rd in the nation in 2-point defense, allowing just 35.6% on 2-point shots, so Boston College is very likely to struggle offensively unless they magically start to make their outside shots. Virginia has faced 7 teams that make less than 34% of their 3-point shots for the season and the Cavaliers have allowed an average of just 36.7 points in those 7 games while going 5-1 ATS (with one no line game). I’ll play Virginia in a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
Opinion - Virginia Commonwealth (-14 ½) over DUQUESNE
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 557
VCU has struggled against good teams that take care of the ball (Villanova, Virginia, Davidson) but the Rams have been dominating mediocre and bad teams and Duquesne certainly qualifies as a bad team. My ratings favor VCU by 15 points in this game even if I give Duquesne full home court value (this game is actually a home-neutral site in downtown Pittsburgh). VCU has played relatively better against bad teams and the Rams apply to a 130-48-2 ATS momentum situation and I’ll lean with the Rams at -15 points or less. I’d take VCU in a 1-Star Best Bet at -14 or less.
Opinion - Texas El Paso (-9) over UTSA
12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 575
UTSA has a decent 8-7 record because they’ve played a very easy schedule, but the Roadrunners have been relatively worse against better competition, as they are 0-3 ATS this season against better than average teams, losing by an average of 19 points to Loyola-Chicago, TCU, and Louisiana Tech. UTSA is now 3-16 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or less in regular season games against teams with a winning record, including 0-10 ATS more recently, and today they host an 11-5 UTEP squad that is well rested and should be very focused for this game (they haven’t played since last Saturday and don’t play again until Thursday). UTEP applies to a 66-26-3 ATS well rested road favorite situation and the Miners have been relatively better against lesser teams this season. My ratings favor the Miners by 8 ½ points, so there isn’t any line value, but I’ll lean with UTEP at -9 or less and I’d take UTEP in a 1-Star Best Bet at -8 or less.
*Virginia (-12 ½) over BOSTON COLLEGE
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 547
Virginia coach Tony Bennett struggled in his first season in 2009-10, but his Cavaliers have been a consistently underrated team under his tutelage – compiling an impressive 76-43-1 ATS record since the 2010-11 campaign. Virginia is at their best when Bennett has 3 or more days off to prepare his team for an opponent and the Cavaliers are 40-13 ATS in regular season games after 3 or more days off as long as they’re not laying more than 14 points, including 19 straight spread wins when favored from 4 ½ to 14 points. My ratings favor the Cavaliers by 13 ½ points, so their isn’t really any line value, but Virginia matches up well with a Boston College team that struggles with their outside shooting (29.4% on 3-point shots). Teams that can’t shoot have a major issue against a Virginia defense that is incredibly tough to get to the rim against. The Cavaliers are 3rd in the nation in 2-point defense, allowing just 35.6% on 2-point shots, so Boston College is very likely to struggle offensively unless they magically start to make their outside shots. Virginia has faced 7 teams that make less than 34% of their 3-point shots for the season and the Cavaliers have allowed an average of just 36.7 points in those 7 games while going 5-1 ATS (with one no line game). I’ll play Virginia in a 1-Star Best Bet at -13 or less.
Opinion - Virginia Commonwealth (-14 ½) over DUQUESNE
11:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 557
VCU has struggled against good teams that take care of the ball (Villanova, Virginia, Davidson) but the Rams have been dominating mediocre and bad teams and Duquesne certainly qualifies as a bad team. My ratings favor VCU by 15 points in this game even if I give Duquesne full home court value (this game is actually a home-neutral site in downtown Pittsburgh). VCU has played relatively better against bad teams and the Rams apply to a 130-48-2 ATS momentum situation and I’ll lean with the Rams at -15 points or less. I’d take VCU in a 1-Star Best Bet at -14 or less.
Opinion - Texas El Paso (-9) over UTSA
12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 575
UTSA has a decent 8-7 record because they’ve played a very easy schedule, but the Roadrunners have been relatively worse against better competition, as they are 0-3 ATS this season against better than average teams, losing by an average of 19 points to Loyola-Chicago, TCU, and Louisiana Tech. UTSA is now 3-16 ATS as an underdog of 17 points or less in regular season games against teams with a winning record, including 0-10 ATS more recently, and today they host an 11-5 UTEP squad that is well rested and should be very focused for this game (they haven’t played since last Saturday and don’t play again until Thursday). UTEP applies to a 66-26-3 ATS well rested road favorite situation and the Miners have been relatively better against lesser teams this season. My ratings favor the Miners by 8 ½ points, so there isn’t any line value, but I’ll lean with UTEP at -9 or less and I’d take UTEP in a 1-Star Best Bet at -8 or less.
