Service Plays Saturday 09/05/09

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SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5
OHIO STATE 34 - Navy 16—Ohio State is deep, fast and talented and
probably has 75-80 players who are better college athletes than their
counterparts at the Naval Academy. However, Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo is an
offensive wizard and proved his mettle as a head coach last season in leading
the Middies to their sixth straight season with 8 or more wins and a bowl game.
Buckeyes, who host USC next week, were caught looking ahead to the Trojans
last season and actually trailed Ohio U. 14-12 in the 4th Q. See similar scenario
here. New Navy QB Ricky Dobbs had a good amount of experience directing
the Mids’ run-oriented spread last season (8 rush TDs, 4.7 ypc; 56% passing),
and d.c. Buddy Green has enough of a combination of speed and schemes to
keep Buckeyes from running wild. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-DNP...SR: Ohio State 3-0)

PENN STATE 45 - Akron 10—Penn State has been a steady producer as a
big favorite the last few years, covering 17 of last 24 laying double-digits. See
no reason to buck that trend here. Nittany Lion QB Daryll Clark is arguably the
best in the Big Ten and RBs Evan Royster & Stephfon Green combined for 1814
yards and 17 TDs. The Penn State defense will be able to compensate for
suspension of CB Wallace and loss of LB Mauti to an ACL injury...the LB corps
has a pair of all-Big Ten players in Navorro Bowman & Sean Lee (so what else
is new?). Young Akron DL could get pushed around by rebuilding Nittany OL
that’s probably tired of hearing how it is the big question mark for the team. Zip
QB Jacquemain will miss graduated star RB Kennedy.
(06-PENN STATE -17' 34-16...SR: Penn State 3-0)

***Western Michigan 31 - MICHIGAN 30—Not convinced that Michigan’s
problems are solved with additions of d.c. Greg Robinson and true frosh QB
Tate Forcier, with recent in-house accusations of violations of NCAA practice
time limitations the latest distraction for Rich Rodriguez’ club. Robinson is
reportedly improving the defense, but must remember that last season’s unit
was the worst in school history. Forcier looked great in spring after enrolling
early, but the offense scored 30 pts. or more just once last season and has been
held below 4.0 ypc in 4 of the last 5 seasons. WMU has the offensive weapons
to put the Wolverine “D” to the acid test. Bronco QB Tom Hiller threw for 3725
yards and 36 TDs LY, and RB Brandon West (1026 YR, 5.0 ypc in ‘08) is looking
for a third straight all-MAC season. The Bronco OL is very big and experienced.
This is a bigger game for WMU, and any win (if the can get it) will do for
Wolverines after last season’s debacle. TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Michigan 4-0)

*Connecticut 26 - OHIO 17—Tricky opener for Huskies, who unveil their new
no-huddle spread attack on the road sans departed star RB D. Brown (nation’sbest
2083 YR LY). Respected Ohio HC Solich looking to get his veteran
Bobcats back on track in 2009 after LY’s injury-plagued campaign. Still, as long
as new starting UConn QB Frazer (originally at Notre Dame) is accurate enough
to move chains a little, defensively-sound Huskies (allowed 21 points or fewer
in 19 of last 26 games) capable of grinding out hard-fought victory.
(DNP...SR: Connecticut 1-0)

NOTRE DAME 38 - Nevada 30—Although we’re not drinking from the same
Kool-Aid as Lou Holtz and forecasting ND into BCS title game, we’re still a bit
tempted to buck a Nevada side whose defensive depth has been exposed in
recent trips to midwest venues such as Mizzou & Nebraska. And we recall how
Irish bullied another WAC foe (Hawaii) when QB Clausen had time to throw in
LY’s Hawaii Bowl. But Chris Ault still has long-legged QB Kaepernick (2849 YP
& 1130 YR in ‘08!) pulling trigger for potent Wolf Pack “Pistol” to keep Charlie
Weis on edge. TV—NBC (FIRST MEETING)

Georgia 27 - OKLAHOMA STATE 26—With QB Zac Robinson (25 TDP LY),
RB Kendall Hunter (1555 YR), and WR Dez Bryant (87 recs., 19 TDC), OSU has
one of the most explosive offenses (41 ppg) in the nation. But defensive
shortcomings were the major factor in the Cowboys going 1-4 SU vs. highquality
foes LY. HC Mark Richt, meanwhile, has turned talented, speedy UGa
into one of the nation’s premier road warriors—18-3 SU as a visitor the L5Ys (8-
3-1 as a dog overall during that time). LY’s injuries in the pits now find the
Bulldogs bigger, deeper, and more experienced up front. Be mindful that QB
Joe Cox is an experienced RS sr. eager for his chance. TV-ABC
(07-GA -6' 35-14...SR: Ga 1-0)

Kentucky 34 - Miami-Ohio 13—With once-proud but now floundering M-O
(off 3 straight losing campaigns for 1st time in 2 decades!) experiencing
adjustment period under 1st-year HC Mike Haywood (former Notre Dame
assistant), seriously doubt RedHawks ready to hang with confident UK riding
14-game non-conference win streak (2nd longest in nation; 7-1-1 vs. spread last
9 facing non-SEC foes). SEC scouts report Wildcats more-self-assured 6-6 jr.
QB Hartline (55%, 9 TDs, 8 ints.; 6-1 as starter LY) has looked extremely sharp
in recent scrimmages. And with 7th-year HC Rich Brooks calling sr.-laden OL
his most talented & deepest, UK’s balanced offense—featuring explosive WR
Cobb (former QB is running “Wildcat” package)—rolls it up vs. vulnerable Miami
defense (33 ppg LY; 5.4 ypc; only 13 sacks). RedHawks slowish, mistakeprone
QB Raudabaugh (24 ints. vs. 21 TDP in career) is no Sammy Baugh vs.
Wildcats athletic, tight-covering 2ndary, spearheaded by NFL-caliber CB
Lindley. TV—ESPNU (at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio)
(DNP...SR: Kentucky 6-4-1)

*Oklahoma 47 - Byu 16—With HC Bob Stoops seeking an even faster tempo
for his explosive no-huddle offense (55+ points in six straight prior to BCS title
game LY vs. Florida), look for Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford (50 TDs vs. only 8
ints.) and 1000-yard RBs DeMarco Murray & Chris Brown to give no quarter to
a BYU defense that is big enough and deep enough, but not fast enough overall.
Scouts report rebuilt Sooner OL coming together rapidly, as is young WR group.
Meanwhile, Cougars have lost their starting LT & LG for the season, causing a
re-shuffled quintet to deal with OU’s premium front four including the likes of AA
DT Gerald McCoy and DEs Auston English, Jeremy Beal & Frank Alexander.
(at Cowboys Stadium Arlington, TX) TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: BYU 1-0)

Missouri 32- Illinois 31—Have loads of respect for UI’s mobile sr. QB Juice
Williams (22 TDP, 719 YR in 2008) and future NFL WR Regis Benn (15.7 ypc
LY). However, Illini have not been a good favorite in recent seasons (7-12
L3Ys), and their defense needs plenty of improvement after yielding 27 ppg LY.
Scouts in Columbia report Missouri’s 6-5 soph QB Gabbert (5 appearances in ‘08)
is a strong-armed quick study of the Tiger spread, which is deep at RB & receiver.
New defensive coordinator Dave Steckel, a former Marine, has whipped the
rebuilt Mizzou defense into a unit faster than expected (but is still concerned
about his secondary). (at Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO) TV—ESPN
(08-Missouri 52-Ill. 42...M.28-24 M.37/226 I.35/81 I.26/42/2/451 M.26/45/1/323 M.1 I.0)
(08-Missouri -9 52-42 07-Missouri -5 40-34 both at St. Louis...SR: Missouri 15-7)

Rice 31 - UAB 30—Blazers were coming together down stretch last year,
splitting their final 6 games SU and covering 6 of last 8. And third-year HC
Callaway has top-notch trigger for his attack in resourceful sr. QB Webb (2367
YP, 1021 YR in 2008). Can’t sell Rice short, however, despite the departure of
record-setting QB Clement and star receivers Dillard & Casey. With almost
everyone back defensively, maligned Owls (allowed 17 points or fewer in 3 of
last 6 games) should continue to improve. And Rice offense has some flexibility
with new signal calllers sr. Shepherd (good runner) and Alabama transfer
Fanuzzi (better passer). (06-RICE +5' 34-33...SR: EVEN 1-1)

WAKE FOREST 35 - Baylor 27—Precocious Baylor QB Griffin threw for
2091 yards & 15 TDs (vs. only 3 ints.) while running for another 846 yards & 13
scores as a true frosh last year. And he’s likely to do substantial damage vs.
Wake defense that lost four players from its back 7 to NFL draft (including LB
Curry, who was selected No. 4 overall). But Griffin’s play-making still won’t be
enough to outdistance a Deacon attack poised to bounce back from sub-par
2008 campaign. Pinpoint sr. QB Skinner, a four-year starter, has completed
67% in his career, Wake has deep TB platoon, and, most importantly, OL is
now seasoned & deep after struggling with inexperience & injuries LY.
CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-W. Forest 41-BAYLOR 13...W.23-15 W.44/156 B.34/94 W.27/36/0/220 B.15/30/
2/156 W.2 B.3)
(08-Wake Forest -12 41-13...SR: Baylor 4-1)

Minnesota 33 - SYRACUSE 20—Insiders believe gung-ho new Syracuse
HC Marrone (N.O. Saints’ offensive coordinator LY) has a good chance to
eventually rebuild his once-proud alma mater. For now, however, the Orange
have little overall depth (18 scholarship players have left program in last six
months!) and a starting QB who last saw game action as a high schooler in
2004. Sure, Greg Paulus, a heavily-recruited local prep legend before opting to
play basketball at Duke, might quickly recapture his previous gridiron magic.
But prefer to back Minny’‘s established jr. QB Weber (39 TDP in last two
seasons), all-conf. sr. WR Decker (151 catches over same span), and veteran
Golden Gopher defense. TV-ESPN2 (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

*EASTERN MICHIGAN 27 - Army 26—Little to choose between these two
hungry programs. Army is operating under its third HC in 4 years, as optionadvocate
Rich Ellerson takes the helm. Ellerson definitely starting from scratch
offensively with only 3 returning starters, but word is the team is comfortable
running the triple option. EMU has been favored just twice in two years and
dropped 8 of last 9 vs. spread outside the MAC. The Eagles are also operating
with a new staff under 1st-year HC Ron English, and they’ll have to fix a defense
that’s yielded 5.3 ypc over the last two seasons. RS sr. QB Andy Schmitt puts
up good numbers, but the team is just 12-35 SU since he enrolled at Ypsilanti.
(08-ARMY 17-E. Mich. 13...A.17-16 A.59/341 E.29/117 E.12/30/0/138 A.0/3/0/0 A.2 E.0)
(08-ARMY -1 17-13...SR: Army 2-0)

*WISCONSIN 31 - Northern Illinois 20—Wisconsin HC Bret Bielema
peaked early and has been sliding downhill since he took over in 2006. The
Badgers are rebuilding in 2009 after having returned 18 starters to last year’s
disappointing team that started Wiscy fans grumbling. Bielema will platoon
QBs Scott Tolzien, RS frosh Curt Philips and sr. Dustin Sherer. None figures
to breathe life into the passing game. Bielema says six true frosh will play this
season, and suspensions and injuries have already caused a shuffling of the
depth chart. NIU HC Jerry Kill has enough offensive weapons in soph QB
Harnish and RB Brown to keep Badgers off balance, and Kill says the defense,
which allowed just 18 ppg LY, could be better up front despite graduation
losses. (07-WISC. -23 44-3...SR: Wisconsin 10-1)

PURDUE 30 - Toledo 24—Both teams sport new head coaches in this one,
and both beat Michigan last season, but favor Toledo side that’s returning 18
starters including sr. QB Aaron Opelt, a pair of RBs in Morgan Williams and
DeJuane Collins who combined for 1710 YR, and 3-time all-MAC S Barry
Church. Conversely, the Boilers are going to play at least two QBs until either
Joey Elliott or Caleb TerBush shows an edge running Danny Hope’s spread
attack. Purdue sr. RB Jaycen Taylor (1237 YR, 5.6 ypc career) hasn’t won his
starting job back after recovering from ACL surgery. Look for Boiler poor form
vs. non-Big Ten foes to continue. (07-Purdue -6' 52-24...SR: EVEN 2-2)

Stanford 34 - WASHINGTON STATE 12—Now that slamming sr. RB
Gerhart has decided to delay his baseball career, Pac-10 scouts say the pieces
appear in place for veteran Stanford (17 starters returning) to make its first bowl
run since Ty Willingham’s days. Meanwhile, all they’re hoping for at Wazzu is
to be more competitive than LY, when Cougs allowed more points (570!) than
any team in college history. Sources say Card RS frosh QB Luck (son of former
NFLer Oliver) mature beyond years.
(08-STAN. 58-Wash. St. 0...S.22-14 S.55/344 W.28/73 W.18/32/2/152 S.7/13/0/112 S.0 W.3)
(08-STANFORD -30' 58-0 07-WSU -11 33-17 06-Wsu -10 26-10...SR: Stanford 33-25-1)

****AUBURN 35 - Louisiana Tech 13—La Tech is climbing the ladder in the
WAC (look out Boise State!) under sharp, 3rd-year HC Derek Dooley, but still
need more evidence to support Bulldogs away from Ruston, where they’re a
woeful 3-16 as DD road dog since 2004 (0-2 LY). AU’s new HC Gene Chizik
hired Tulsa’s creative o.c. Gus Malzahn to re-invigorate an attack that
generated only 17 ppg (meager 7 TDP) in ‘08. Look for immediate dividends.
Tigers now-healthy QB Todd (55%; off shoulder surgery), complementary RBs
Tate (664 YR, 4.2 ypc) & RSF McCalebb (considered fastest Tiger runner since
‘06), and a promising set of receivers (led by highly-touted 6-3 frosh Benton)
figure to slice up La Tech defense that yielded a whopping 1002 yds. combined
in lopsided non-conference losses at Kansas & Boise State LY. Bulldogs top
playmakers, 5-9 RB Porter & 5-8 WR/returner Livas, won’t “get off” vs. swift,
seasoned & hungry SEC defense (18 ppg; 7 starters back).
CABLE TV—ESPNU (DNP...SR: Auburn 10-0-1)

*TEXAS A&M 35 - New Mexico 13—With New Mexico adapting to so many
changes (new HC Mike Locksley from Illinois; new, no-huddle, “multi-Lobo”
offense; change to a 4-3 defense from 3-3-5), the stability edge is held by A&M
in only its second season under Mike Sherman. QB-injured NM tossed only four
TDP vs. FBS foes LY, while emerging 6-5 Aggie QB Jerrod Johnson had 21 in
supplanting Stephen McGee. Moreover, speedy soph RB Cyrus Gray will get
help from blue-chip frosh Christine (sic) Michael, described by Sherman as
“ahead of schedule.” Sherman and vet. d.c. Joe Kines have infused speed into
a defense that had only 16 sacks LY.
(08-Tex. A&M 28-N. MEX. 22...N.20-16 N.38/216 T.39/92 N.22/38/2/154 T.13/24/0/144 T.1 N.2)
(08-Texas A&M -2 28-22...SR: Texas A&M 2-0)

*Alabama 16 - Virginia Tech 13—In this anticipated defensive war pitting
two Top Ten squads with national title aspirations, prefer to “take” with veteran
VT, tough to beat by a margin under crafty HC Frank Beamer (only 2 losses by
more than 5 pts. over last 34 games). Hokies developing jr. dual-threat QB
Tyrod Taylor (57%, 738 YR), who has reportedly embraced leadership role TY,
benefits from maturing bunch of WRs (gifted 6-4 RSF Boyce nicknamed “Calvin
Crabtree”) & high quality TEs. And with Hokies terrific trio of RBs (soph Oglesby
& ballyhooed duo of RS frosh R. Williams & true frosh D. Wilson) compensating
for loss of injured star RB Evans, more-varied VT offense maintains some ball
control. Bama’s smart jr. QB McElroy has enormous upside. But sans biggame
experience, underappreciated RB Coffee (1,383 YR, 5.9 ypc), and a
synchronized OL (3 starters gone, including Outland Trophy winner LT Andre
Smith), McElroy hard-pressed to consistently move chains vs. fly-to-the ball,
TO-creating Hokie defense (17 ppg, 35 sacks, 20 ints. LY), anchored by
sackmeister DE Worilds (8 sacks, 10.5 TFL) & lock-down cover CB Virgil, who
figures to shadow Bama’s marvelous WR Julio Jones. (at Georgia Dome in
Atlanta) TV—ABC (DNP...SR: Alabama 10-1)

*Idaho 26 - NEW MEXICO STATE 23—Difficult to make strong case
between two bottom-rung WAC squads. NMS’ new HC DeWayne Walker
(former UCLA d.c.), who has highly-challenging task of resurrecting an Aggie
program that hasn’t been to a bowl since 1960, dramatically shifting offense
from Mumme’s Air Raid to a more ground-oriented attack. And while competent
Aggie RBs Colston & Glynn exploit Idaho’s soft underbelly (5.7 ypc, 34 rush
TDs), would give slight edge to better-balanced Idaho attack, led by veteran,
slimmed-down QB Enderle (2077 YP, 20 TDs, 17 ints.), who has shown a better
touch on deep passes and greater trust in his WRs in recent scrimmages. And
with Idaho RB McCarty (season-high 160 YR in ‘08 tilt) licking his chops,
Vandals continue series control (6-1 vs. spread last 7) and break protracted 14-
game road losing streak.
(08-IDAHO 20-N. Mex. St. 14...N.19-16 I.48/271 N.26/35 N.37/47/2/324 I.7/18/2/59 I.1 N.2)
(08-IDAHO +13 20-14 07-NMS -9 45-31 06-IDAHO -1 28-20...SR: Idaho 11-4)

*UTEP 34 - Buffalo 21—Generally speaking, it’s U Take ‘Em Points in
UTEP’s games (10-18 as a favorite L5Ys; 17-11 as a dog), but hometown
Miners own a substantial QB edge & revenge motivation. Normally-careful QB
Trevor Vittatoe (33 TDP, only 9 ints. ‘09) was picked off three times LY in
UTEP’s embarrassing season-opening visit to Buffalo. Now, the experienced
Miner offense—with quick James Thomas appearing in shotgun and at WR—
is reportedly supported by a vastly-improved, healthier (key S Braxton Amy is
back), and deeper defense that’s eager to rattle Bulls’ young QBs, who could be
hard-pressed to get the ball to deluxe WR Naaman Roosevelt (104 recs. LY!).
(08-BUFFALO 42-Utep 17...B.23-16 B.50/263 U.26/67 B.10/16/0/221 U.20/37/3/199 B.2 U.0)
(08-BUFFALO -3 42-17...SR: Buffalo 1-0)

*CALIFORNIA 31 - Maryland 17—Cal’s revenge motivation welldocumented
after heavily-favored Bears snoozed thru early going of LY’s early
kickoff time in upset loss at College Park. And Pac-10 sources say it’s Jeff
Tedford’s veteran defense that could allow Bears to seriously challenge SC in
Pac-10. But before dismissing Maryland, remember that Terps beat four Top
25 teams LY and return key weapons QB Turner and star RB Scott. By the way,
who is that man on Terp sidelines? (“The Fridge” reportedly down 100 lbs. in
latest diet!) CABLE TV—ESPN2
(08-MARY. 35-Calif. 27...C.26-19 M.47/141 C.23/38 C.33/60/1/423 M.15/20/0/156 M.2 C.0)
(08-MARYLAND +14' 35-27...SR: Maryland 1-0)

SOUTHERN CAL 38 - San Jose State 14—Safe to say that SJSU didn’t
consult Bill Snyder when putting together ‘09 slate (Spartans open with LY’s 2nd
and 3rd-rated teams, SC & Utah). Moreover, Dick Tomey was desperate enough
to jump-start LY’s sluggish “O” that he imported Arena Ball o.c. Terry Malley to
pump some life into recently-dormant SJSU attack & sr. QB Reed. But at huge
price, Spartans might offer better value than SC bunch that’s starting true frosh
QB Barkley and might not show too much before next week’s Ohio State
showdown. (DNP...SR: Southern Cal 3-0)

*ARIZONA 27 - Central Michigan 20—Arizona found it easy to play the bully
LY when sr. QB Tuitama was finally comfy with o.c. Dykes’ spread and underfire
HC Stoops was eager to run up scores. But with dynamics a bit different in
‘09 (inexperience at QB with sophs Scott & Foles, and pressure temporarily off
Stoops), not sure Cats offer similar value as chalk. Prolific QB LeFevour (74
career TDP) still in fold for CMU, and Chips expect experienced “D” (10 starters
back) to be improved. (FIRST MEETING)

*UCLA 30 - San Diego State 19—MWC sources suggest keeping an eye on
SDSU, especially with new HC Hoke (12-1 while at Ball State LY) hiring a pair
of shrewd coordinators (Al Borges for “O” and ex-New Mexico HC Rocky long for
“D”) that both ironically have UCLA ties. At a minimum, expect Aztecs to run and
defend run better in ‘09, which should help preclude Bruins and their own iffy
attack (scouts say new RS frosh QB Prince and rebuilt infantry both works in
progress) from extending margin. (DNP...SR: UCLA 20-0-1)

*Lsu 29 - WASHINGTON 17—New U-Dub HC Sarkisian (most-recently
USC’s o.c.) gets to find out what life is like on other end of spectrum after
inheriting Huskies’ 0-12 mess. But Pac-10 sources believe UW would have at
least won a few games had Tim Tebow-like QB Locker stayed healthy in ‘08,
and the mix of maturity (16 starters) and new staff have at least rekindled hope
in Seattle. SEC sources expect improved QB play (playmaking soph Jefferson)
and “D” (with new d.c. Chavis) from LSU. But remember that Tigers have
covered just 5 of last 23 on board. CABLE TV—ESPN (DNP...SR: LSU 1-0)

ADDED GAMES
*NEBRASKA 30 - Florida Atlantic 13—Insiders in Lincoln say jr. QB Zac Lee
(only 1 of 2 LY, but was a prolific no-huddle QB in JC) has been a revelation for
the Cornhuskers, while A-A DT Ndamukong Suh has been a terror in preseason
workouts. Admittedly, FAU has not done well (2-12-1 vs. the spread L5Ys vs.
BCS conference teams) in the past stepping up in class. However, Howard
Schnellenberger now has a bigger, stronger, and deeper team than in those
formative years of his program. Sr. Rusty Smith (24 TDs, 14 ints. LY) provides
poise and leadership at QB and has a veteran receiving corps. Owls might grab
a “hang in there.” (FIRST MEETING)

*CLEMSON 30 - Middle Tennessee State 16—Sun Belt sources say athletic
Middle Tennessee jr. QB Dasher (56% completions & 530 YR in 2007, but only
limited snaps LY) looking very comfortable at controls of new o.c. Franklin’s
pass-oriented spread attack. Although speedy Clemson defense figures to be
pretty salty in 2009, RS frosh Tiger QB Parker probably lacks enough rapport
with rebuilt receiving corps to extend margin vs. plucky Blue Raiders.
(DNP...SR: Clemson 1-0)

*TEXAS 54 - La.-Monroe 6—ULM has a respectable 5-5 spread record the
L4Ys getting more than three TDs. However, it could be argued that Texas is
better than any team in that group. Moreover, the Warhawks are breaking in a
new starting QB and changing their undersized defense (6.0 ypc vs. FBS foes
LY) to a 3-3-5. Thus, the Longhorns’ big, veteran OL should have its way on the
ground, making things even easier for Colt McCoy (76%, 34 TDs, 8 ints.). Mack
Brown not known to humiliate outclassed foes and would like his backups to get
experience, but his defense (only 6 ints. LY) is eager to show improvement.
(FIRST MEETING)

***TENNESSEE 45 - Western Kentucky 3—Even with UCLA payback on
deck, inclined to lay the lumber with re-dedicated UT under impetuous HC Lane
Kiffin, eager to make a big splash in his Knoxville debut. WKU has brand new
DL. So, watch Vols humongous OL open gaping holes for “franchise” frosh RB
B. Brown (considered nation’s premier prep back) & productive sr. RB Hardesty
(6 TDs), while much-criticized QB Crompton & No. 2 Stephens (expect both to
play) exploit hurtin’ Hilltopper 2ndary missing suspended soph SS Beard (teamhigh
3 ints.). WKU’s unproven QBs (sr. B. Smith or RSF Jakes) could
self-destruct vs. UT’s aggressive, Tampa Two (under Bucs former d.c. Monte
Kiffin), spearheaded by brilliant SS Eric Berry (projected 1st-round NFL pick in
2010) benefiting from constant pressure applied by rotating front 4 (Vols DL
coach Ed Orgeron says he’s 9-10 deep!). And note, outclassed WKU (only 3rd
year since leaving Div. I-AA) has dropped 5 straight vs. SEC foes by avg. 35-
ppg. (FIRST MEETING)
 

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Montewins

auburn -13.5
ariozona -13.5
phillies +ml

Bonus Play
nevada +14.5
 
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Saturday system club play GC-

On Saturday the system club play which went 9-4 last year right here, is on Western Michigan game 149 at 3:30 eastern. They fit a solid opening week system that actually plays against their opponent Michigan here today. What we want to do is play against opening week double digit favorites that won 5 or less games last year,if they are taking on an opponent that simply won 4 or more games. The line makers struggle to get the right line here on these non conference games.They tend to over value the favored team. Dogs like W.Michigan in this instance have covered 22 of 27 times since 1980 in this system. Michigan will no doubt be good on offense this year. However they still have a ways to go on defense. Western Michigan brings back most of a solid 9-4 team last year and should give Michigan a solid game here. Take the points with W.Michigan on Saturday afternoon. BOL GC-
 

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THIS UP TILL SYSTEM CLUB PLAY!!!!!

Navy -
North Coast Power Sweep 2*, Pointwise Phone 3*, Norm Hitzges, Doc's Sports 4 Unit Play, sirdukesports, Northcoast
Ohio St



Akron-
Robert Ferringo 2.0*, RAS 1 Unit
Penn st-
Scores and odds (penn st -40), Jimmy Boyd 5* NCAAF Non-Conference GOTY


Minnesota-
CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS, Robert Ferringo 1.5*, Norm Hitzges, Allen Eastman 6-Unit Play, Pigskin Prophet
Syracuse-
Over-
Under-
Sirdukesports, The Killer Move



Kentucky-
Scores and odds (Kentucky -23), CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS, Pointwise Phone 2*, Norm Hitzges
Miami OH-


Toledo-
Robert Ferringo 1.5* , Jimmy Boyd 4* Major Week , Doc's Sports 6 Unit Play.
Purdue-
Scores and odds (Purdue -20)
Over-
Under-
Doc's Sports 4 Unit Play.


Western Kentucky-
Greg Roberts
Tennessee-
Norm Hitzges



San Jose St-
CKO NINE-RATED
USC-
Scores and odds USC-49, igz1 sports 3*, WUNDERDOG 4 units



UGA-
North Coast Power Sweep 2*, Pointwise Phone 4*, Lee Sterling (Georgia Straight Up), Malinsky 6*, Greg Roberts (straight up), Sports Insight, Colin Cowherd's
OK St-
Norm Hitzges, Indian Cowboy 4 Unit , Allen Eastman 3-Unit Play, College Bettor, Robert Ferringo 2.0*



Nevada-
Greg Roberts, Montewins.com (Bonus Play), Malinsky 4*, Colin Cowherd's
Notre Dame-
WUNDERDOG 4 units, College Bettor




Western Michigan-
Greg Roberts:
Michigan-
North Coast Sports Line (Free 4* Power Play), Doc's Sports 4 Unit Play, WUNDERDOG 4 units



Baylor-
North Coast Sports Line (Economy Club Play), Lee Sterling: (Mild Upset), College Bettor
Wake Forest-
Ness Oddsmaker's Error Wake Forest, Greg Roberts, WUNDERDOG 4 units



Missouri-
Scores and odds (Missouri -8), Sports Insight, Dr.Bob I'll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I'd take the Tigers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 1/2 or more, CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS, WUNDERDOG 4 units
Illinois-
Colin Cowherd's, Greg Roberts, Doc's Sports 5 Unit, Northcoast Sports's , Robert Ferringo 3.0*, Vegas Sports Informer 3 Unit, Trushel (reg), Ness Insider, Jim Ashland 15 dime, Scott Ferrall (4), College Bettor, North Coast Power Sweep 3*

Other than wunderdog… it seems as though the cappers are on Illinois and the computer cappers are on Missouri



Rice-
Scott Ferrall (2) CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS
UAB-
Betonline, Robert Ferringo 3.0*, Norm Hitzges, sirdukesports, Allen Eastman 4-Unit, Jimmy Boyd 4* Major Conference USA Game of the Month



Middle Tennessee st-
Norm Hitzges, Malinsky 4*, CKO 10-strong, RAS 1 Unit, Doc's Sports (Last Games left off of the Ticket)
Clemson-
Scores and odds (Clemson -27)




Sanford-
Washington st-
North Coast Sports



Louisiana-Monroe-
Texas-
Jimmy Boyd 5dimes 3* SMASH, WUNDERDOG 4 units, CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS



BYU-
Oklahoma-
Scores and odds (Oklahoma -28), Pointwise Phone 2*, Greg Roberts:, CKO 10 – strong, Colin Cowherd's , igz1 sports 3*
Over-
igz1 sports 4*
Under-




Florida Atlantic-
Nebraska-
Scott Ferrall (1)



Louisiana Tech-
Indian Cowboy 4 Unit Play
Auburn-
Ness 20*Perfect Storm , Pointwise Phone 2*, Malinsky 4*, Montewins.com, St.BernadineSports - 1st ever 4**** Star



Connecticut-
Scores and odds (Connecticut -11), sirdukesports
Ohio-
Dave Busk 3 Unit, Allen Eastman 2-Unit Play, Trushel 20*, Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack
Over-
Under-
CKO




New Mexico-
Scores and odds (New Mexico -4), TurboBets, CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS
Texas A&M-
PPP Gavazzi 5*, Norm Hitzges, Vegas Sports Informer 4 Unit, Doc's Sports 4 Unit, igz1 sports 4*, Pointwise Phone 3*, Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack, sirdukesports, Robert Ferringo 3.5*, North Coast Power Sweep 4*, CKO 9 – normal


Again the computers are on new mexico and the cappers are on texas AM… anyone know what to make of these types of games?




Northern Illinois-
Doc's Sports 5 Unit Play
Wisconsin-
North Coast Power Sweep 2*, Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack



Army-
Eastern Michigan-
Jim Ashland 25 dime, Robert Ferringo 1.5*, RAS 1 Unit, CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS, Dave Busk 1 Unit




San Diego St-
UCLA-
Scores and odds (UCLA -29), Betonline, Scott Ferrall (3), WUNDERDOG: 4 units
Over-
Under-
Dr Bob Strong Opinion



Alabama-
Colin Cowherd's
VT-
igz1 sports 3*, Greg Roberts, Lee Sterling, Vegas Sports Informer 3 Unit, Pointwise Phone 3*
Over-
Under-
CKO, Greg Roberts, Lee Sterling, Robert Ferringo 2.0*



Idaho-
RAS 1 Unit
New Mexico St-


Central Michigan-
Norm Hitzges, CKO 11 very strong
Arizona-
Scores and odds (Arizona -25), Montewins.com, Football jesus - FREE



Buffalo-
Scores and odds (Buffalo -2), CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS
UTEP-
Ness 25*GOY, Pointwise Phone 2*, Norm Hitzges, Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack, North Coast Power Sweep 3*

Another game with computers and cappers on opposite sides





Maryland-
Cal-
Betonline, Colin Cowherd's, Robert Ferringo 4.5* GOW, Norm Hitzges, Lee Sterling:, Greg Roberts



LSU-
CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS, Diceituponline (Fireman) 15 Dimes, Colin Cowherd's, Pointwise Phone 2*, Norm Hitzges Double Play
Washington-
CKO 9 – normal, Greg Roberts, Trushel reg
Over-
Under-
Allen Eastman 3-Unit



Mississippi-
Dr. Bob I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20 points.
Memphis-
CONGROVE COMPUTER RANKINGS, Pointwise Phone 4*, Dave Busk 3 Unit, Doc's Sports Last Games left off of the Ticket, CKO 10 strong



Colorado St-
Colorado-
CKO 10 – strong, North Coast Sports Line Big 12 POW, Norm Hitzges, igz1 sports 3*, Vegas Sports Informer 3 Unit Play



Cincinnati-
Norm Hitzges, Dr Bob I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd make the Bearcats a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Rutgers-




Miami FL-
Pointwise Phone 3*, Lee Sterling, Greg Roberts:
Florida St-
Over-
Under-
Vegas Sports Informer 4 Unit
 
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Messages
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ATS Consultant Newsletter Plays

3* Best Bets

Notre Dame over Nevada 38-14
Oklahoma State over Georgia 44-20

2* Preferred Plays

UTEP over Buffalo 38-24
Illinois over Missouri 45-30
Maryland covers over Cal 28-35

LA Dodgers over San Diego 7-2
Under in the Boston/Chisox game

Computer Plays

Rice +6 over UAB
LSU over Washington
Wake Forest -10 over Baylor
 
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Messages
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Tokens
apache
15 michigan
20 michigan over
25 oklahoma
25 u.a.b.
25 toledo
12 stanford
14 idaho
17 buffalo under
15 san jose st
12 arizona
22 ucla
22 washington
9 clemson
 
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Messages
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Asian Executive

$11K: 156 Oklahoma St -5
$7K: 157 Kentucky -14.5
$7K: 170 Eastern Michigan -3.5
$4K: 178 Auburn -13.5
 
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Messages
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THE GOLD SHEET'S CFB PHONE PICK's FOR TODAY

1.5 Unit MISSOURI
1.0 Unit NEVADA
1.0 Unit MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST.
 

Member
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Messages
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Tokens
Bob Valentino

30 DIME WINNER #6 IN A ROW ...
30 DIME -- NOTRE DAME (minus the points vs. Nevada)



NOTE: As of Friday afternoon, this number was sitting at 14 1/2 in most spots. If that number holds, I want you to buy the 1/2-point with Notre Dame and only lay 14 as insurance. No sense getting beat by the hook when you can get a key number like 14.



Also, as always, shop around to get the best of the number. Never lay more on a favorite than you have to, or take back less on an underdog than is available!

*confirmed
 

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Messages
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Tokens
Pointwise football prophecy

va tech over alabama rating; 1
oklahoma over byu rating 1
rice over uab rating 2
illinois over missouri rating 3
california over maryland rating 4
miami over fl st rating 4
penn st over akron rating 5
baylor over wake forrest rating 5

rating 1 being best play
 
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Hondo

September 5, 2009

Hondo, with an assist from Beating The Bushes col umnist Tim Bontemps, had some good times last night with the Reds, who upended the Braves to slice the debt to 915 grimeses.

Today, he's looking for a four-bagger with Pettitte, Lackey, Cain and Blanton. Ten units apiece.
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL


Nevada at (23) Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish, with coach Charlie Weis facing a critical season if he hopes to remain on the job, open the 2009 campaign with a home contest against Nevada.

Notre Dame went 7-6 SU and ATS last year, barely managing to reach a bowl game after losing its last two regular-season games – a 24-23 home upset as a 19½-point home chalk against lowly Syracuse, followed by a 38-3 whitewashing as an overwhelming 33½-point underdog at Southern Cal. The Irish managed to finish on a high note, with a 49-21 rout of Hawaii as a 2½-point favorite in the Hawaii Bowl, the school’s first postseason win in 15 years.

The Irish have junior QB Jimmy Clausen returning off a season in which he completed 60.9 percent of his passes for 3,174 yards, with 25 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Golden Tate had 1,080 receiving yards and a team-leading 11 TDs.

Nevada also went 7-6 SU but was just 5-7 ATS in 2008, failing to cover in its last three games (1-2 SU), including a 42-35 loss to Maryland as a 2½-point chalk in the Humanitarian Bowl. Dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick returns after throwing for 2,479 yards and rushing for another 1,103 last year, accounting for 35 TDs (19 passing, 16 rushing) while throwing just five INTs.

The Irish have cashed in five of their last seven as a favorite, but they are on ATS slides of 1-5 in season openers, 6-13 at home, 3-7 in September and 2-9 laying more than 10 points, and Weis’ troops are 1-6 ATS as a double-digit home chalk since 2006. The Wolf Pack haven’t been much better from a wagering perspective, carrying negative ATS streaks of 1-4 in non-conference play, 1-4 as a pup, 3-8 on the highway and 5-11 as a road ‘dog of more than 10. Nevada is also just 4-9 ATS its last 13 non-conference road contests.

The over is 4-0-1 in Notre Dame’s last five home games, and the over for Nevada is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 5-2 on the road and 6-0 when the Pack are a road ‘dog of more than 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


(13) Georgia at (9) Oklahoma State

A battle between the Southeastern Conference and the Big 12 takes place in Stillwater when the Cowboys play host to Georgia.

Oklahoma State is coming off a solid season, going 9-4 SU and 8-4 ATS in 2008. However, the Pokes lost their last two games SU and ATS, falling to archrival Oklahoma 61-41 as a 10-point home pup, then losing 42-31 to Oregon as a one-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. The Cowboys have three major offensive threats back, in QB Zac Robinson (3,068 passing yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs), RB Kendall Hunter (1,555 rushing yards, 16 TDs) and wideout Dez Bryant (87 catches, 1,482 yards, 19 TDs). Robinson, who completed 65 percent of his passes in 2008, also rushed for 561 yards and eight TDs.

Georgia went 10-3 SU but just 4-7-1 ATS in 2008, failing to cash in its final four regular-season games before beating Michigan State 24-12 as a nine-point favorite in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. The Bulldogs, who entered last year as the top-ranked team in the nation, lost star QB Matt Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, who were both taken in the first round of the NFL draft, with Stafford going No. 1 overall. But coach Mark Richt has an experienced, if not tested, QB in redshirt senior Joe Cox.

These two teams met two years ago in the season opener in Athens, Ga., with the Bulldogs rolling to a 35-14 victory as a 6½-point favorite.

After cashing in their first eight games last year, the Cowboys finished on an 0-4 ATS skid (1-3 SU). However, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 6-2 at home, 6-0 as a home chalk (5-0 last year) and 41-20-2 overall as a favorite. The Bulldogs, despite ending 2008 on a 1-4 ATS slide, are on spread-covering streaks of 5-1 outside the SEC and 7-1 as a road pup (4-0 last four). They are also 15-8 ATS in their last 23 roadies overall, and they are on an 18-3 SU tear on the highway.

The under is 23-8 in Georgia’s last 31 September starts, but the over is on tears of 5-0 with the Bulldogs getting points, 29-9 with Oklahoma State at home and 17-5 with the Cowboys as a home chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE



San Jose State at (4) USC

Perennial national championship contender Southern Cal opens the 2009 campaign at the Los Angeles Coliseum against the Spartans.

USC, a double-digit favorite in every game last season, went 12-1 SU but a more middling 7-6 ATS, capping it off with a 38-24 Rose Bowl victory over Penn State as a 10-point chalk. The Trojans enter this year on a 10-game SU win streak (5-5 ATS) following their shocking 27-21 road loss to Oregon State as a whopping 24-point favorite. With QB Mark Sanchez darting to the NFL, Pete Carroll has opted to start true freshman Matt Barkley under center.

San Jose State went 6-6 SU and 5-6 ATS last year, limping to the finish line by losing four of its last five SU and failing to cash in all five contests after opening the season 5-2 SU (5-1 ATS). The Spartans have senior QB Kyle Reed returning, though he had a nondescript junior campaign, completing 63.7 percent of his passes but netting just 1,537 yards, with nine TDs against six INTs.

The Trojans are on ATS upticks of 23-6 outside the Pac-10, 35-17 at the Coliseum and 8-2 in non-conference home games, and Carroll’s troops went 3-1 ATS last year as a chalk of 30 or more. USC has also won 11 straight season openers (7-4 ATS). The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last five September starts and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference contests, but along with their current 0-5 ATS skid, they are on pointspread declines of 1-4 as a pup and 2-6 catching more than 10 points on the road.

The under for USC is on stretches of 17-6-1 overall, 16-5-1 at home, 4-0 in September and 21-8-1 as a favorite. Likewise, the under for San Jose State is on runs of 23-8-1 overall, 8-1 with the Spartans as a road pup and 6-2 in non-conference play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER



Missouri vs. Illinois

(at St. Louis)

Missouri and the Fighting Illini make the trek to the Edward Jones Dome for the third straight year for a Big 12-Big Ten battle between border rivals.

Missouri went 10-4 SU but just 5-8 ATS in the 2008 campaign, going 2-7 ATS in its final nine games, including pointspread setbacks in its last three contests (1-2 SU). The Tigers, who won the Big 12 North, finished the season with a 30-23 overtime victory against Northwestern as a heavy 14-point favorite in the Alamo Bowl. Missouri lost star QB Chase Daniel (4,335 passing yards, 37 TDs, 15 INTs) and wideout Jeremy Maclin (95 catches, 1,221 yards, 12 TDs) from that squad. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert will take the reins.

Illinois lost its last three games SU and ATS to finish 5-7 SU and 4-7 ATS in coach Ron Zook’s fourth season, including a pair of upset losses to Western Michigan (23-17 as a 7½-point home chalk) and Northwestern (27-10 as a three-point favorite) to end the season. Mobile senior QB Juice Williams (3,173 passing yards, 22 TD passes; 719 rushing yards, 5 TDs) returns to lead the Illini’s explosive offense.

Missouri is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, including a 52-42 win in a shootout in St. Louis last year, as the Tigers barely covered the 9½-point spread.

Under coach Gary Pinkel, the Tigers are on a 10-3 ATS tear in non-conference action, and they are on further spread-covering runs of 5-0 on turf, 6-1 in September and 4-1 against the Big Ten. The Illini have covered four of their last five September starts but are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall, 0-5 outside the Big Ten, 0-4 against the Big 12 and 0-4 at neutral sites.

The over for Missouri is on streaks of 26-10 as an underdog, 6-0 on turf and 5-1 in September, and the over for Illinois is on upswings of 5-1 on turf and 13-6 in September. Finally, the past two meetings in this rivalry soared over the posted price, as the two teams combined for 74 points in 2007 before last year’s 94-point outburst.


ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI


(20) BYU vs. (3) Oklahoma

(at Dallas)

The Sooners begin their quest for a return trip to the BCS championship game as they travel to the sparkling new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas to take on Brigham Young.

Oklahoma is coming off a 12-2 SU and 10-3 ATS effort, but the season ended on a sour note with a 24-14 loss to Florida as a 4½-point ‘dog in the national title game Jan. 8 in Miami. That loss snapped a 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) roll that got the Sooners into the BCS final. Star QB Sam Bradford, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, returns after completing 67.9 percent of his passes last year for 4,719 yards with a whopping 50 TDs against just eight INTs. The Sooners averaged 51.1 points per game in 2008.

BYU went 10-3 SU last year but wasn’t nearly as successful at the betting window, with a 3-9 ATS mark. The Cougars covered just once in their last nine games and ended the year with a 31-21 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Arizona as a three-point underdog. QB Max Hall is coming off a big junior season, completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 3,955 yards with 35 TDs and 14 INTs.

Along with their current 6-1 ATS run, the Sooners are on spread-covering sprees of 6-0 as a chalk, 9-1 in September and 7-2 in non-conference play, and Bob Stoops’ troops are 9-0 ATS in their last nine regular-season tilts outside the Big 12. Oklahoma is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games laying double digits, including 4-0 ATS as a double-digit chalk away from Norman.

The Cougars are on ATS skids of 1-6 outside the Mountain West and 1-4 as an underdog, though they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five September games.

The over for Oklahoma is on streaks of 12-2 overall, 10-3 in non-conference play and 8-3 in September, and four of BYU’s last five games in 2008 topped the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and OVER



(7) Virginia Tech vs. (5) Alabama

(at Atlanta)

Perhaps the biggest game of opening weekend pits the Crimson Tide against Virginia Tech in a neutral-site, non-conference clash at the Georgia Dome.

Alabama rolled up wins in its first 12 games last year (9-3 ATS) in claiming the SEC West title, but finished the year by losing its last two games SU and ATS. The Tide fell to eventual national champion Florida 31-20 as a 10-point pup in the SEC title game, then got upset by unbeaten Utah in the Sugar Bowl, losing 31-17 as a 9½-point favorite.

Alabama lost QB John Parker Wilson (2,096 passing yards, 9 TDs, 6 INTs), but the bigger loss is probably RB Glen Coffee (1,342 yards, 10 TDs, 6.1 ypc). QB Greg McElroy, with just 20 collegiate passing attempts, moves into the starting role for the Tide, and RB Mark Ingram (747 yards, 12 TDs, 7.7 ypc) also returns.

Virginia Tech is coming off a 10-4 campaign (6-7 ATS), winning their last four games (2-2 ATS). The Hokies capped the regular season with a 30-12 rout of Boston College as a one-point chalk in the ACC title game in Tampa, Fla., then dropped Cincinnati 20-7 as a 2½-point pup in the Orange Bowl.

QB Tyrod Taylor returns to lead Va-Tech after rushing for 738 yards and seven scores, while throwing for another 896 yards (2 TDs, 6 INTs). However, leading rusher Darren Evans (1,113 yards, 10 TDs, 4.3 ypc) tore his left ACL in practice last month and is out for the year.

The Crimson Tide cashed in their first five roadies last year before the two-game skid to end the season, and Alabama is on a 5-1 ATS run as a chalk. The Hokies are on a 10-3 ATS roll as an underdog, but they are on spread-covering skids of 2-8 outside the ACC and 2-7 in September.

The over has hit in eight of Alabama’s last 11 September games, but the under is on stretches of 7-2 overall for the Tide, 6-2 with ‘Bama favored, 5-1 overall for Va-Tech and 4-1 for the Hokies in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Maryland at (12) California

Two teams coming off winning bowl appearances get together for the second straight year, this time at Memorial Stadium where the Golden Bears will host Maryland.

California is coming off a 9-4 SU and ATS effort, including a 24-17 victory over Miami, Fla., in the Emerald Bowl, though it failed to cover as a healthy 10-point chalk after ending the regular season on a 5-1 ATS run (4-2 SU). QB Kevin Riley (1,345 yards passing, 14 TDs, 6 INTs) took the majority of the snaps last year, though the departed Nate Longshore also saw a lot of action.

The key for the Bears, though, is the return of standout RB Jahvid Best, who piled up 1,409 rushing yards and 13 TDs, averaging a whopping 8.1 ypc. Shane Vereen, Cal’s second leading rusher last year with 678 yards (5.1 ypc), also returns.

Maryland fended off Nevada in a high-scoring Humanitarian Bowl 42-35 as a 2½-point pup last December, finishing the year 8-5 SU (6-6 ATS), though it cashed in just two of its last six games. QB Chris Turner (2,518 passing yards, 13 TDs, 11 INTs) is back for his third year as a starter, and top RBs Da’Rel Scott (980 yards, 6 TDs, 5.0 ypc) and Davin Meggett (418 yards, 4 TDs, 5.6 ypc) also return for the Terrapins.

These two teams met last September, with the Terps scoring a 35-27 upset victory as a heavy 14-point home underdog.

The Golden Bears were a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home last year, all from the favorite’s role, and they are on further ATS rolls of 10-4 overall, 8-1 at home, 4-1 laying points and 4-1 in September. Cal is also 4-1 in its last five as a double-digit chalk.

Maryland is on ATS upswings of 5-1 catching more than 10 points and 4-1 in September, but the Terrapins also carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-5 on the road and 2-5 as a road pup.

The over for Cal is on tears of 8-3-1 outside the Pac-10 and 16-7 when the Bears are a home favorite, and last year’s clash with Maryland barely cleared the 61-point total. On the flip side, the under for Maryland is on runs of 13-6 overall, 8-1 on the road and 7-3 as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CALIFORNIA


(11) LSU at Washington

Perennial SEC power LSU makes the trek to the Pacific Northwest to open the season against the Huskies, who are coming off a winless season.

LSU went 8-5 SU last year but was a dismal 3-9 ATS, failing to cash in six straight games (2-4 SU) before finally bouncing back in the season-ending Chick-Fil-A Bowl with a 38-3 blowout of Georgia Tech as a four-point underdog. Jarrett Lee (1,873 yards passing, 13 TDs, 16 INTs) started most of last season, but sophomore Jordan Jefferson overtook Lee on the depth chart this year and will start at QB. Leading rusher Charles Scott (1,109 yards, 15 TDs, 5.5 ypc) is back for the Tigers, as well.

Washington was awful on all counts last year, going 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS, costing Ty Willingham his job and ushering in former USC assistant Steve Sarkisian as the new head coach. Nine of the Huskies’ losses came by double digits, including eight by 20 points or more. QB Jake Locker, who started four games last year before breaking his thumb, is back to lead the offense. Starting RB Chris Polk also returns as a redshirt freshman after missing all but two games last year due to injuries.

The Tigers are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 as a chalk and 0-6 laying more than 10 points, but they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 20-8 in non-conference play and 15-6-1 as a road favorite. The Huskies carry nothing but negative ATS trends, including 18-39-2 overall, 15-31 at home (1-6 last year), 0-8 as an underdog and 0-5 getting points at home.

The over for LSU is on stretches of 15-6 overall, 9-3 on the highway and 12-5 as chalk, and the over for Washington is on surges of 8-3 at home and 5-1 in September.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit (73-61) at Tampa Bay (72-62)

The Tigers look to take another step closer to the A.L. Central title when they send Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.05 ERA) to the Tropicana Field mound against Rays ace James Shields (9-10, 3.86).

Detroit followed up a three-game home sweep of the Indians with Friday’s 4-3, come-from-behind victory over the Rays, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth inning. Not only have the Tigers won four in a row, but they’re 14-7 in their last 21 (5-3 on the road) and 7-1 in their last eight against right-handed starters. On the downside, Jim Leyland’s squad is in slumps of 7-15 on the highway, 21-44 on the road against winning teams, 3-7 on Saturday and65-16 on field turf.

Tampa Bay is just 3-6 in its last nine games, including splitting a four-game set in Detroit last weekend. The Rays remain on positive runs of 37-16 at home, 73-27 at home versus right-handed starters, 49-16 in the second game of a series and 15-2 on Saturday.

These teams have meet 12 times since last August, with the host winning eight of those contests, and the Rays are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings with Detroit at Tropicana Field.

Galarraga hasn’t started a game since Aug. 22 in Oakland, when he gave up two runs in 6 1/3 innings, but Detroit fell, 3-2. Behind Galarraga, the Tigers are in ruts of 1-7 overall, 1-4 as a visitor and 0-4 on Saturday. The young right-hander is 2-6 with a 5.65 ERA in 11 road starts, with Detroit going 3-8. Also, Galarraga faced the Rays twice last year, allowing one run in seven innings of a 6-5 loss at Tampa Bay, then surrendering five runs in 7 2/3 innings at home, but the Tigers prevailed, 7-5.

Shields earned an 11-7 victory at Detroit on Monday despite yielding five runs (four earned) on 10 hits in seven innings. The right-hander is now 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers, with Tampa Bay winning all five contests. Shields has won his last two starts – both on the road – after going 1-4 in his previous five outings. He’s 4-6 in 15 home starts this season despite a solid 3.35 ERA. The Rays have dropped Shields’ last five outings at The Trop.

For the Tigers, the under is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 8-2 on Saturday, 7-2 with Galarraga on the hill and 9-2 when Galarraga works on the road. Meanwhile, the under is 20-7-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 29 games against the A.L. Central and 8-2-2 in its last 12 versus right-handed starters.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
 
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MLB DUNKEL


Minnesota at Cleveland
The Indians look to follow up their 5-2 win yesterday and build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games when the opponent scores 2 or fewer runs in the previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 5

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Harden) 13.994; NY Mets (Figueroa) 15.244
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+175); Over

Game 953-954: San Francisco at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.817; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.177
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Under

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Boggs) 14.162; Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.208
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+130); Over

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 14.477; Houston (Oswalt) 14.755
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Under

Game 959-960: Florida at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 14.087; Washington (Hernandez) 14.257
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+165); Under

Game 961-962: Cincinnati at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Wells) 15.728; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.510
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-245); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+225); Over

Game 963-964: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Davis) 14.861; Colorado (Contreras) 15.797
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-135); Over

Game 965-966: San Diego at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 16.840; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.678
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+200); Under

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 17.204; Toronto (Cecil) 14.844
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Under

Game 969-970: Boston at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Wakefield) 15.355; White Sox (Floyd) 16.308
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-120); Under

Game 971-972: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 14.741; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.191
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Galarraga) 15.456; Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.163
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+165); Over

Game 975-976: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.152; Baltimore (Matusz) 15.885
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Under

Game 977-978: LA Angels at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 15.148; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.168
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-115); Under

Game 979-980: Seattle at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (French) 14.933; Oakland (Anderson) 15.744
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-150); Over
 

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