sirdukesports
Date Sport Rotation Selection Rating Line Handicapper Sports Books
9/5/2009 CFB 145 Navy Midshipmen +22 10* 22 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 151 Connecticut Huskies -3.5 5* -3.5 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 164 UAB -6 7* -6 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 167/168 Minnesota/Syracuse Under 47 5* 47 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 180 Texas A&M Aggies -15 7* -15 Sirduke All
Date Sport Rotation Selection Rating Line Handicapper Sports Books
9/5/2009 CFB 145 Navy Midshipmen +22 10* 22 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 151 Connecticut Huskies -3.5 5* -3.5 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 164 UAB -6 7* -6 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 167/168 Minnesota/Syracuse Under 47 5* 47 Sirduke All
9/5/2009 CFB 180 Texas A&M Aggies -15 7* -15 Sirduke All
Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack
Matchup: Navy at Ohio State
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Navy (+22.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Navy (+) over OHIO ST - These two last met in a rain soaked 1981 Liberty Bowl. Ohio St has covered 5 straight home openers but this time has a massive game against USC on deck. Last year the week before USC they trailed going into the 4Q vs Ohio as a 33’ pt favorite. OSU is 5-10 ATS vs non-conf and Navy is 6-3 ATS in road openers. OSU lost 2 LB’s and 2 CB’s to the NFL and projected starter Moeher, but still has a very athletic defensive front 7. Last year Navy had just 12 FD’s vs Pitt and 11 vs ND and in both games got the majority of their yards and pts vs the backups. OSU lost RB Wells prior to USC so they probably won’t take chances late and if their minds wander ahead to USC, the Mids will keep trying until the end and could get some big plays. They are 14-4 ATS as an AD.
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Matchup: W. Michigan at Michigan
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Michigan (-11.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
MICHIGAN Over W Michigan - Michigan has been upset in their last 2 home openers (App St & Utah) after having won the previous 9. UM is 24-1 SU (0-5 ATS run) vs the MAC and we mention that because their one loss was last year to Toledo. UM is 4-11 ATS in their 1st lined game of the season. These two last met in ‘01 & ‘02 (UM 2-0 ATS). Michigan has a huge game vs ND on deck but must take every opponent seriously after a 3-9 season including that upset loss to Toledo a team that also finished just 3-9 LY. Here they take on a 9-4 WM team that went to a bowl while the Wolves were home for the holidays. WM has talent but it is very inexperienced on D with just 3 starters back and Michigan avg just 20.3 ppg LY but should have one of the most improved offenses in the country led by new starting QB Forcier (PS#16). Expect a fully focused Michigan squad. While Cubit has knocked off 3 BCS teams in 4 years he has dropped his last two openers to WV and Neb by 30.5 ppg. WM may hold some stuff back for a more winnable game next week at Indy.
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Matchup: No. Illinois at Wisconsin
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Wisconsin (-16.0 -110)
Line Source: CAL NEVA
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
WISCONSIN over N Illinois - Wisconsin has won 13 straight Camp Randall openers by an avg of 20 ppg. The Badgers are off a 7-6 season and have just 11 returning starters but are under some pressure after 10 losses the last two years when Badger fans were expecting BCS. Last year NIll was a veteran squad with 21 ret sts and this year have just 11 back. NIll has lost 5 straight openers to BCS teams but only lost by 14 ppg to the 4 from the Big Ten. In 2007 UW did roll to a 44-3 win here but that was late in the year vs an injury ravaged team. Northern’s emphasis should be staying healthy here and last year Wisky could have mauled Akron but gave up a cheap TD at the end of the 1H and a garbage TD with :38 left and only won by 21 (-26’) and won’t be as generous here.
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Matchup: New Mexico at Texas AM
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas AM (-14 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
TEXAS A&M over New Mexico - LY vs NM, A&M was outgained (236-370) but won the TO battle (+3) in Mike Sherman’s 1st victory as the Aggies HC 28-22 on the road. A&M is 20-1 S/‘88 in home openers, but lost LY to ASU. NMex looks to be in a rebuilding year with just 9 starters back and a new HC and schemes on both sides of the ball. A&M will be much improved with 16 ret starters and now is in Sherman’s 2nd year. A&M is off a disastrous 4-8 year and should want to gain confidence with big early season wins and has the schedule to accomplish that. LY A&M’s 10 returning starters were upset by Ark St in the opener and expect a defense which allowed 462 ypg and 5.2 ypc to dominate a New Mexico offense that is switching to a pass oriented scheme. The Aggies have a bye next week and will hold nothing back.
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Matchup: Connecticut at Ohio
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Ohio (+4 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Ohio University (+) Over Conn - Take an 8-5 Big East team that won its bowl 38-20 over the MAC Champs and pit them against a lowly 4-8 MAC team to beat and note that the Big East tm won their only previous meeting 37-19 in ‘02 and you would expect the BE team a 2 or 3 TD favorite. Delving a little deeper we see an upset here. Ohio is 5-1 SU in home openers and knocked off Pitt here in Solich’s 1st year. Ohio is a team that opened 0-4 LY but could easily have been 4-0 at that point which would have made them an 8-4 team instead of 4-8. OU is 11-6 ATS at home. Last year UC needed OT to get past MAC member Temple on the road. Ohio only has NT on deck and should be sky high while UC will be looking ahead to NCar and Baylor the next 2 weeks. While UC is a veteran group they lose their star off player in Donald Brown (2,083 rush) and the ret skill players combined (incl the QB) do not equal his numbers. OU was an injury plagued team in ‘08 and that makes them even more exp than their 14 ret sts.
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Matchup: Buffalo at Texas-El Paso
Time: 9:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas-El Paso (-9.5 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
UTEP over Buffalo - These two teams are going in different directions. Buffalo was the MAC Champ last year and does have 14 ret sts including super RB Starks but loses QB Willy and caught a lot of breaks LY to get that title. UTEP could have been a bowl squad but had a couple of tough losses to finish just 5-7. They have one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Trevor Vittatoe and they also have 15 ret sts. Last year these two met in Buffalo and it was close until Buf got a 34 yd TD pass with :30 left in the half (1 play after 4th down conv) to take the lead and romped in the 2H. It was an unusual trip north for UTEP who were preoccupied by the biggest home game in their history (Texas) which was played the following week. This year it will be a strange trip to the Southwest for Buffalo and UTEP is playing with legitimate revenge. ST and defense are close but UTEP has a large edge on off (#41 vs #112).
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Member Plays
Matchup: Missouri at Illinois
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Illinois (-6.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Illinois over Missouri (St Louis) - The Illini were just 5-7 last year and Missouri was the Big 12 North Champs but these two are vastly different teams. Illinois could go to a BCS bowl and Missouri is the least experienced team in the country. These two have met in St Louis each of the last 3 years with the Tigers winning by an avg of 38-30 and covering all 3 by just 2 ppg. Illinois has veteran senior QB Juice Williams and one of the most explosive offenses in the country along with a much improved defense. Missouri has an untested QB after Chase Daniel led them to all 3 wins over Illinois and just 9 starters back. History says Missouri but this year’s talent says Illinois is the stronger team and gets a more comfortable win than expected.
Matchup: Navy at Ohio State
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Navy (+22.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Navy (+) over OHIO ST - These two last met in a rain soaked 1981 Liberty Bowl. Ohio St has covered 5 straight home openers but this time has a massive game against USC on deck. Last year the week before USC they trailed going into the 4Q vs Ohio as a 33’ pt favorite. OSU is 5-10 ATS vs non-conf and Navy is 6-3 ATS in road openers. OSU lost 2 LB’s and 2 CB’s to the NFL and projected starter Moeher, but still has a very athletic defensive front 7. Last year Navy had just 12 FD’s vs Pitt and 11 vs ND and in both games got the majority of their yards and pts vs the backups. OSU lost RB Wells prior to USC so they probably won’t take chances late and if their minds wander ahead to USC, the Mids will keep trying until the end and could get some big plays. They are 14-4 ATS as an AD.
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Matchup: W. Michigan at Michigan
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Michigan (-11.5 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
MICHIGAN Over W Michigan - Michigan has been upset in their last 2 home openers (App St & Utah) after having won the previous 9. UM is 24-1 SU (0-5 ATS run) vs the MAC and we mention that because their one loss was last year to Toledo. UM is 4-11 ATS in their 1st lined game of the season. These two last met in ‘01 & ‘02 (UM 2-0 ATS). Michigan has a huge game vs ND on deck but must take every opponent seriously after a 3-9 season including that upset loss to Toledo a team that also finished just 3-9 LY. Here they take on a 9-4 WM team that went to a bowl while the Wolves were home for the holidays. WM has talent but it is very inexperienced on D with just 3 starters back and Michigan avg just 20.3 ppg LY but should have one of the most improved offenses in the country led by new starting QB Forcier (PS#16). Expect a fully focused Michigan squad. While Cubit has knocked off 3 BCS teams in 4 years he has dropped his last two openers to WV and Neb by 30.5 ppg. WM may hold some stuff back for a more winnable game next week at Indy.
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Matchup: No. Illinois at Wisconsin
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Wisconsin (-16.0 -110)
Line Source: CAL NEVA
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
WISCONSIN over N Illinois - Wisconsin has won 13 straight Camp Randall openers by an avg of 20 ppg. The Badgers are off a 7-6 season and have just 11 returning starters but are under some pressure after 10 losses the last two years when Badger fans were expecting BCS. Last year NIll was a veteran squad with 21 ret sts and this year have just 11 back. NIll has lost 5 straight openers to BCS teams but only lost by 14 ppg to the 4 from the Big Ten. In 2007 UW did roll to a 44-3 win here but that was late in the year vs an injury ravaged team. Northern’s emphasis should be staying healthy here and last year Wisky could have mauled Akron but gave up a cheap TD at the end of the 1H and a garbage TD with :38 left and only won by 21 (-26’) and won’t be as generous here.
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Matchup: New Mexico at Texas AM
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas AM (-14 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
TEXAS A&M over New Mexico - LY vs NM, A&M was outgained (236-370) but won the TO battle (+3) in Mike Sherman’s 1st victory as the Aggies HC 28-22 on the road. A&M is 20-1 S/‘88 in home openers, but lost LY to ASU. NMex looks to be in a rebuilding year with just 9 starters back and a new HC and schemes on both sides of the ball. A&M will be much improved with 16 ret starters and now is in Sherman’s 2nd year. A&M is off a disastrous 4-8 year and should want to gain confidence with big early season wins and has the schedule to accomplish that. LY A&M’s 10 returning starters were upset by Ark St in the opener and expect a defense which allowed 462 ypg and 5.2 ypc to dominate a New Mexico offense that is switching to a pass oriented scheme. The Aggies have a bye next week and will hold nothing back.
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Matchup: Connecticut at Ohio
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Ohio (+4 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Ohio University (+) Over Conn - Take an 8-5 Big East team that won its bowl 38-20 over the MAC Champs and pit them against a lowly 4-8 MAC team to beat and note that the Big East tm won their only previous meeting 37-19 in ‘02 and you would expect the BE team a 2 or 3 TD favorite. Delving a little deeper we see an upset here. Ohio is 5-1 SU in home openers and knocked off Pitt here in Solich’s 1st year. Ohio is a team that opened 0-4 LY but could easily have been 4-0 at that point which would have made them an 8-4 team instead of 4-8. OU is 11-6 ATS at home. Last year UC needed OT to get past MAC member Temple on the road. Ohio only has NT on deck and should be sky high while UC will be looking ahead to NCar and Baylor the next 2 weeks. While UC is a veteran group they lose their star off player in Donald Brown (2,083 rush) and the ret skill players combined (incl the QB) do not equal his numbers. OU was an injury plagued team in ‘08 and that makes them even more exp than their 14 ret sts.
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Matchup: Buffalo at Texas-El Paso
Time: 9:00 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Texas-El Paso (-9.5 -110)
Line Source: BETED
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
UTEP over Buffalo - These two teams are going in different directions. Buffalo was the MAC Champ last year and does have 14 ret sts including super RB Starks but loses QB Willy and caught a lot of breaks LY to get that title. UTEP could have been a bowl squad but had a couple of tough losses to finish just 5-7. They have one of the most underrated QB’s in the country in Trevor Vittatoe and they also have 15 ret sts. Last year these two met in Buffalo and it was close until Buf got a 34 yd TD pass with :30 left in the half (1 play after 4th down conv) to take the lead and romped in the 2H. It was an unusual trip north for UTEP who were preoccupied by the biggest home game in their history (Texas) which was played the following week. This year it will be a strange trip to the Southwest for Buffalo and UTEP is playing with legitimate revenge. ST and defense are close but UTEP has a large edge on off (#41 vs #112).
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Member Plays
Matchup: Missouri at Illinois
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Illinois (-6.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 3, 2009 @ 12:22:46 PM EDT
Illinois over Missouri (St Louis) - The Illini were just 5-7 last year and Missouri was the Big 12 North Champs but these two are vastly different teams. Illinois could go to a BCS bowl and Missouri is the least experienced team in the country. These two have met in St Louis each of the last 3 years with the Tigers winning by an avg of 38-30 and covering all 3 by just 2 ppg. Illinois has veteran senior QB Juice Williams and one of the most explosive offenses in the country along with a much improved defense. Missouri has an untested QB after Chase Daniel led them to all 3 wins over Illinois and just 9 starters back. History says Missouri but this year’s talent says Illinois is the stronger team and gets a more comfortable win than expected.
Dr. Bob
3 Star Selection
*Mississippi (-16.0) 40 MEMPHIS 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Sep-09
Mississippi was one of the nation's top 5 teams at the end of last season and the only team to beat National Champion Florida, doing so on the road. All 4 of the Rebels' losses last season were by 7 points or less (they were 2-4 in close games) and this season they are once again rated in my top-5 teams (#5).
I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20 points.
Strong Opinion
Missouri 30 Illinois (-6.5) 31 (at St. Louis)
12:30 PM Pacific, 05-Sep-09
I'll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I'd take the Tigers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 1/2 or more.
Strong Opinion
Cincinnati 27 RUTGERS (-6.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 07-Sep-09
I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd make the Bearcats a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER (51 1/2) - UCLA (-19.5) 31 San Diego St. 13
04:30 PM Pacific, 05-Sep-09
I'll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.
3 Star Selection
*Mississippi (-16.0) 40 MEMPHIS 13
12:30 PM Pacific, 06-Sep-09
Mississippi was one of the nation's top 5 teams at the end of last season and the only team to beat National Champion Florida, doing so on the road. All 4 of the Rebels' losses last season were by 7 points or less (they were 2-4 in close games) and this season they are once again rated in my top-5 teams (#5).
I'll take Mississippi in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars from -17 1/2 to -20 points.
Strong Opinion
Missouri 30 Illinois (-6.5) 31 (at St. Louis)
12:30 PM Pacific, 05-Sep-09
I'll consider Missouri a Strong Opinion at +6 or more and I'd take the Tigers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 1/2 or more.
Strong Opinion
Cincinnati 27 RUTGERS (-6.0) 26
01:00 PM Pacific, 07-Sep-09
I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd make the Bearcats a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.
Strong Opinion
UNDER (51 1/2) - UCLA (-19.5) 31 San Diego St. 13
04:30 PM Pacific, 05-Sep-09
I'll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.
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Allen Eastman
6-Unit Play. Take #167 Minnesota (-6.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
4-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (-5.5) over Rice (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
3-Unit Play. Take #156 Oklahoma State (-4.5) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #152 Ohio (+3.5) over Connecticut (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.5 LSU at Washington (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
6-Unit Play. Take #167 Minnesota (-6.5) over Syracuse (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 5)
4-Unit Play. Take #164 UAB (-5.5) over Rice (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
3-Unit Play. Take #156 Oklahoma State (-4.5) over Georgia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
2-Unit Play. Take #152 Ohio (+3.5) over Connecticut (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 53.5 LSU at Washington (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 5)
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Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. # 177. Take Louisiana Tech +13.5 over Auburn (Saturday @ 7pm est). I know that Auburn is looking to rebuild from last year's disappointment - but I expect them to struggle in this game. The Tigers were a dismal 2-9 ATS last year. I just don’t see the Tigers magically improving this year. After all, there are still questions regarding the quarterback situation of this team as both Burns and Todd have their faults. First year coach Malzahn has a lot of pressure to produce results as if the Tigers are willing to get rid of a coach who went 75-27, certainly, they will can the new guy if he has subpart performance early. Louisiana Tech returns quite a bit of starters from last year and this team moved the ball well last year. In fact, La Tech should be able to move the ball very effectively as this team is familiar with the system they run as compared to Auburn who is trying to get used Malzahn's way of doing things. I expect La Tech to be in sync earlier in the game and consequently to fall within the spread and even have a shot at winning this game outright.
4 Unit Play. # 156. Take Oklahoma State -5 over Georgia (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). I just don't buy into the University of Georgia - yet. With a new quarterback and running attack, this team will find it tough in Oklahoma State. OSU is extremely well coached and this is a big game for their program. By handling the Bulldogs, this team can pave the way for what looks to be a very promising season. This team had a tough loss against Oregon in their last contest that they would like to forget and certainly this team has wonderful new facilities at their disposal. Heck, when Boone Pickens throws money down on your school, he expects a return. The Cowboys ended last season 6-0 ATS as a home favorite and are 15-6-1 ATS as favorites by this margin. I'm a fan of Coach Mark, but I just don't see his team being in sync this early on as I feel like they simply have too many holes to fill
4 Unit Play. # 177. Take Louisiana Tech +13.5 over Auburn (Saturday @ 7pm est). I know that Auburn is looking to rebuild from last year's disappointment - but I expect them to struggle in this game. The Tigers were a dismal 2-9 ATS last year. I just don’t see the Tigers magically improving this year. After all, there are still questions regarding the quarterback situation of this team as both Burns and Todd have their faults. First year coach Malzahn has a lot of pressure to produce results as if the Tigers are willing to get rid of a coach who went 75-27, certainly, they will can the new guy if he has subpart performance early. Louisiana Tech returns quite a bit of starters from last year and this team moved the ball well last year. In fact, La Tech should be able to move the ball very effectively as this team is familiar with the system they run as compared to Auburn who is trying to get used Malzahn's way of doing things. I expect La Tech to be in sync earlier in the game and consequently to fall within the spread and even have a shot at winning this game outright.
4 Unit Play. # 156. Take Oklahoma State -5 over Georgia (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). I just don't buy into the University of Georgia - yet. With a new quarterback and running attack, this team will find it tough in Oklahoma State. OSU is extremely well coached and this is a big game for their program. By handling the Bulldogs, this team can pave the way for what looks to be a very promising season. This team had a tough loss against Oregon in their last contest that they would like to forget and certainly this team has wonderful new facilities at their disposal. Heck, when Boone Pickens throws money down on your school, he expects a return. The Cowboys ended last season 6-0 ATS as a home favorite and are 15-6-1 ATS as favorites by this margin. I'm a fan of Coach Mark, but I just don't see his team being in sync this early on as I feel like they simply have too many holes to fill
Dave Busk
3 Unit Pick #152 Take Ohio U (+3.5) over Connecticut (September 5th, 7:00)
Year five of the Frank Solich era begins in the home doggie role vs. Connecticut and this might be the best time to face the Huskies in the opener. Connecticut has to replace their quarterback plus their star running back plus they’re installing a new offensive bringing in the no huddle. Something like that could take some time for them to run even half good. While Connecticut defense was sixth in the nation in 2008 and return six starter’s on they defensive unit they will have to face Ohio offense that had a quarterback battle in the spring and return all their wide outs and running backs. I made this game a pick by my numbers and to be able to put (3.5) points in my pocket is something I can’t pass up.
1 Unit Pick #170 Eastern Michigan (-5.5) over Army (September 5th, 7:00)
Both teams have hired new head coaches with Army bringing in Rich Ellerson a triple option expert who has coach and had great success at Cal Poly for the last eight years. Eastern Michigan brings in former Michigan and Louisville defensive coordinator Ron English who inherits 16 returning starters from last year with standout quarterback Andy Schmitt and all-Mac receiver Jacory Stone. These two teams played at West Point last year with Army coming out on top with a 17-13 win as a (2.5) point favorite, I think the second time around for Eastern Michigan defense of seeing the option and they amount of depth this team returns we have some value in the home opener.
3 Unit Pick #206 Take Memphis (+17) over Mississippi (September 6th, 3:30)
Whew, is this baby high. These two teams opened up last year in Mississippi with the oddsmaker opening the Rebels as a (10) point favorite before money betting down the closing number to (-8.5) Mississippi win. The Rebels when on to go 9-4 and win a bowl game while Memphis went 6-7 and lost a bowl game. A lot can be said about Memphis last year, they started the season 0-3 and battled back to make a bowl game. This Memphis team is a little older and better, their strong at the quarterback position and have a good returning back with Curtis Steele along with a defensive that improved last year and has seven returning starters this year. I know the Rebels are good and deep with the offense and even with no real home field advantage with these two schools so close, this line is just to high and I expect Memphis to hang around.
Thanks and Good Luck-Dave
3 Unit Pick #152 Take Ohio U (+3.5) over Connecticut (September 5th, 7:00)
Year five of the Frank Solich era begins in the home doggie role vs. Connecticut and this might be the best time to face the Huskies in the opener. Connecticut has to replace their quarterback plus their star running back plus they’re installing a new offensive bringing in the no huddle. Something like that could take some time for them to run even half good. While Connecticut defense was sixth in the nation in 2008 and return six starter’s on they defensive unit they will have to face Ohio offense that had a quarterback battle in the spring and return all their wide outs and running backs. I made this game a pick by my numbers and to be able to put (3.5) points in my pocket is something I can’t pass up.
1 Unit Pick #170 Eastern Michigan (-5.5) over Army (September 5th, 7:00)
Both teams have hired new head coaches with Army bringing in Rich Ellerson a triple option expert who has coach and had great success at Cal Poly for the last eight years. Eastern Michigan brings in former Michigan and Louisville defensive coordinator Ron English who inherits 16 returning starters from last year with standout quarterback Andy Schmitt and all-Mac receiver Jacory Stone. These two teams played at West Point last year with Army coming out on top with a 17-13 win as a (2.5) point favorite, I think the second time around for Eastern Michigan defense of seeing the option and they amount of depth this team returns we have some value in the home opener.
3 Unit Pick #206 Take Memphis (+17) over Mississippi (September 6th, 3:30)
Whew, is this baby high. These two teams opened up last year in Mississippi with the oddsmaker opening the Rebels as a (10) point favorite before money betting down the closing number to (-8.5) Mississippi win. The Rebels when on to go 9-4 and win a bowl game while Memphis went 6-7 and lost a bowl game. A lot can be said about Memphis last year, they started the season 0-3 and battled back to make a bowl game. This Memphis team is a little older and better, their strong at the quarterback position and have a good returning back with Curtis Steele along with a defensive that improved last year and has seven returning starters this year. I know the Rebels are good and deep with the offense and even with no real home field advantage with these two schools so close, this line is just to high and I expect Memphis to hang around.
Thanks and Good Luck-Dave
Vegas Sports Informer
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
3 Unit Play. #162 Take Illinois -6 ½ over Missouri (Saturday 9/5 3:30 PM ESPN)
Expect Illinois to get its revenge on Missouri tonight as the Illini are 0-2 in their last two meetings. Juice Williams will be the difference for Illinois, as his experience and play-making ability will put the Illini over the top and finally beat the Tigers of Missouri. Illinois is 4-1 ATS in the month of September.
4 Unit Play. #180 Take Texas A&M -14 over New Mexico (Saturday 9/5 7:00 PM)
New Mexico looks to be yet in another rebuilding year as New Mexico returns only 9 starters. Last year the offense for the Lobos had issues, but the defense generally kept things interesting. Texas A&M should have no trouble on offense and defense against New Mexico and the Aggies should easily win this game by double-digits. New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
3 Unit Play. #181 Take Virginia Tech +6 ½ over Alabama (Saturday 9/5 8:00 PM ABC)
Defense will rule this game! With both teams flexing their muscle on defense a low scoring game we should see. With that, too many points to give Va Tech on a neutral field Saturday night. Alabama should win this game but look out for the Hokies as they can easily win this game on defense and special teams. The winner of this game wins by a field goal! Virginia Tech is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
3 Unit Play. #208 Take Colorado -10 ½ over Colorado St (Sunday 9/6 7:00 PM FSN)
Since this game is being played in Boulder and not Denver we should see the home team taking advantage of this instate rivalry. What a shock that Colorado State is starting yet another season with an inexperienced QB. Colorado St is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
4 Unit Play. #211 Take Under 48 ½ Miami Fl at Florida St (Monday 9/7 8:00 PM ESPN)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
3 Unit Play. #162 Take Illinois -6 ½ over Missouri (Saturday 9/5 3:30 PM ESPN)
Expect Illinois to get its revenge on Missouri tonight as the Illini are 0-2 in their last two meetings. Juice Williams will be the difference for Illinois, as his experience and play-making ability will put the Illini over the top and finally beat the Tigers of Missouri. Illinois is 4-1 ATS in the month of September.
4 Unit Play. #180 Take Texas A&M -14 over New Mexico (Saturday 9/5 7:00 PM)
New Mexico looks to be yet in another rebuilding year as New Mexico returns only 9 starters. Last year the offense for the Lobos had issues, but the defense generally kept things interesting. Texas A&M should have no trouble on offense and defense against New Mexico and the Aggies should easily win this game by double-digits. New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 1-4 ATS as a road underdog.
3 Unit Play. #181 Take Virginia Tech +6 ½ over Alabama (Saturday 9/5 8:00 PM ABC)
Defense will rule this game! With both teams flexing their muscle on defense a low scoring game we should see. With that, too many points to give Va Tech on a neutral field Saturday night. Alabama should win this game but look out for the Hokies as they can easily win this game on defense and special teams. The winner of this game wins by a field goal! Virginia Tech is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog.
3 Unit Play. #208 Take Colorado -10 ½ over Colorado St (Sunday 9/6 7:00 PM FSN)
Since this game is being played in Boulder and not Denver we should see the home team taking advantage of this instate rivalry. What a shock that Colorado State is starting yet another season with an inexperienced QB. Colorado St is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
4 Unit Play. #211 Take Under 48 ½ Miami Fl at Florida St (Monday 9/7 8:00 PM ESPN)
Doc's Sports
“The Magnificent Seven” Saturday, September 5, 2009.
6 Unit Play. #57 Take Toledo +10 ½ over Purdue (Saturday 12:00 pm Big 10 Network) Top Selection of the Weekend. I like the points here and in fact will call the upset. Toledo 24, Purdue 21.
5 Unit Play. #69 Take Illinois -6 ½ over Missouri (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) Top Big 10 Selection. Illinois 35, Missouri 10.
5 Unit Play. #91 Take Northern Illinois +17 over Wisconsin (Saturday 6:00 pm Big 10 Network) Top Underdog Play. Call it close! Wisconsin 27, Northern Illinois 20.
4 Unit Play. #58 Take Under 50 ½ in Toledo at Purdue (Saturday 12:00 Big 10 Network) Top Over/Under Play. Toledo 24, Purdue 21.
4 Unit Play. #50 Take Michigan -12 ½ over Western Michigan (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) To me it looks like more of the same in 2009. Michigan 35, Western Michigan 14.
4 Unit Play. #62 Take Texas A & M -14 over New Mexico (Saturday 6 pm) Texas A & M 42, New Mexico 10.
4 Unit Play. #73 Take Navy +22 over Ohio State (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) I will not go that far but will easily take the points. Ohio State 24, Navy 10.
Last Games left off of the Ticket:
No. 87 Middle Tennessee State +18 ½ over Clemson
No. 108 Take Memphis +17 over Mississippi
No. 32 Tennessee -3 ½ over Green Bay
“The Magnificent Seven” Saturday, September 5, 2009.
6 Unit Play. #57 Take Toledo +10 ½ over Purdue (Saturday 12:00 pm Big 10 Network) Top Selection of the Weekend. I like the points here and in fact will call the upset. Toledo 24, Purdue 21.
5 Unit Play. #69 Take Illinois -6 ½ over Missouri (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) Top Big 10 Selection. Illinois 35, Missouri 10.
5 Unit Play. #91 Take Northern Illinois +17 over Wisconsin (Saturday 6:00 pm Big 10 Network) Top Underdog Play. Call it close! Wisconsin 27, Northern Illinois 20.
4 Unit Play. #58 Take Under 50 ½ in Toledo at Purdue (Saturday 12:00 Big 10 Network) Top Over/Under Play. Toledo 24, Purdue 21.
4 Unit Play. #50 Take Michigan -12 ½ over Western Michigan (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) To me it looks like more of the same in 2009. Michigan 35, Western Michigan 14.
4 Unit Play. #62 Take Texas A & M -14 over New Mexico (Saturday 6 pm) Texas A & M 42, New Mexico 10.
4 Unit Play. #73 Take Navy +22 over Ohio State (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) I will not go that far but will easily take the points. Ohio State 24, Navy 10.
Last Games left off of the Ticket:
No. 87 Middle Tennessee State +18 ½ over Clemson
No. 108 Take Memphis +17 over Mississippi
No. 32 Tennessee -3 ½ over Green Bay
Last edited:
St.BernadineSports
PingPongFool
1st ever 4**** Star
Auburn -13.5 -110 for Game
I have had my eye on this game for several weeks. The more I study it the more I love it.
The last time Auburn took the field they lost 36-0 to Alabama. What a bad taste to live with all year. They are so ready to get on the field and hit someone, anyone, just give me someone to play. You got it. LA Tech, is coming to town. I would hate to be LA Tech. Auburn has so many new things this year. One of which is Gus Malzahn the OC. Watch out Wild Cat. Kodi Burns is the perfect QB for the Wild Cat. (Both Burns and Malzahn are from Arkansas, which is where I am also from) This game will be over in the 1st Qu and so will the spread. Watch for Auburn to burn it up (no pun intended). The SEC vrs WAC and only 13.5 points?? You can't be serious. I will give them -13.5 and jump on it.
Enjoy the game (ESPN-U)
PingPongFool
1st ever 4**** Star
Auburn -13.5 -110 for Game
I have had my eye on this game for several weeks. The more I study it the more I love it.
The last time Auburn took the field they lost 36-0 to Alabama. What a bad taste to live with all year. They are so ready to get on the field and hit someone, anyone, just give me someone to play. You got it. LA Tech, is coming to town. I would hate to be LA Tech. Auburn has so many new things this year. One of which is Gus Malzahn the OC. Watch out Wild Cat. Kodi Burns is the perfect QB for the Wild Cat. (Both Burns and Malzahn are from Arkansas, which is where I am also from) This game will be over in the 1st Qu and so will the spread. Watch for Auburn to burn it up (no pun intended). The SEC vrs WAC and only 13.5 points?? You can't be serious. I will give them -13.5 and jump on it.
Enjoy the game (ESPN-U)
Norm Hitzges
NCAA
Double Play--LSU -17.5 vs Washington
Double Play--Texas A&M -15 vs New Mexico
Navy +21.5 vs Ohio State
Oklahoma St -4.5 vs Georgia
Kentucky -15 vs Miami, OH
UAB -6 vs Rice
Minnesota -7 vs Syracuse
UTEP -9 vs Buffalo
Central Michigan +13.5 vs Arizona
Middle Tennessee State +19 vs Clemson
Tennessee -29.5 vs Western Kentucky
California -21 vs Maryland
Colorado -10 vs Colorado State
Cincinnati +5 vs Rutgers
NCAA
Double Play--LSU -17.5 vs Washington
Double Play--Texas A&M -15 vs New Mexico
Navy +21.5 vs Ohio State
Oklahoma St -4.5 vs Georgia
Kentucky -15 vs Miami, OH
UAB -6 vs Rice
Minnesota -7 vs Syracuse
UTEP -9 vs Buffalo
Central Michigan +13.5 vs Arizona
Middle Tennessee State +19 vs Clemson
Tennessee -29.5 vs Western Kentucky
California -21 vs Maryland
Colorado -10 vs Colorado State
Cincinnati +5 vs Rutgers
The Gold Sheet Extra
The Gold Sheet Extra
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
COLLEGE
SOUTH CAROLINA at NC STATE (Thursday, September 3)... NCS
closed with a rush last season, covering its last 8 games. Although
Wolfpack was not favored in any of those! NCS just 1-6 as chalk since
‘06 (1-2 under O’Brien since '07), but Wolfpack was 5-0 vs. spread in
revenge role LY and will be looking for some after absorbing 34-0
pasting in last season’s opener. Spurrier has covered just 5 of last 18
on board (5-11-2 vs. line). He’s also just 2-6 last 8 as dog, and 2-7 vs.
number last 9 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Tech edge-NCS,
based on recent trends.
UTAH STATE at UTAH (Thursday, September 3)...Road team is 4-0-
1 vs. line last 5 and 7-1-1 against spread last 9 in this in-state rivalry.
Utes 14-6 vs. number last 20 on board overall, although they were
only 1-2 vs. line laying DDs at Salt Lake City LY. Note Utah “over” 11-
2 last 13 on board. Utags not bad lately, either, 13-6 vs. spread last 19
on board, and covered 8 of last 12 away from Logan. Andersen debut
for Utags. Tech edge-Utah State, based on series and team trends.
OREGON at BOISE STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Chip Kelly
debut at UO. Bellotti was 13-6 vs. line his last 19 as dog away from
home. Ducks 6-2 vs. line in non-Pac 10 action since ‘07 with one of
those defeats vs. Boise LY. Boise only 2-2 vs. line on blue carpet LY
but 39-15 in role since ‘99. Interestingly, Broncos have covered only
2 of last 7 in first game of season on board. Tech edge-slight to
Oregon, based on team trends.
TROY at BOWLING GREEN (Thursday, September 3)...Troy now 7-
2 vs. number last 9 as visiting favorite. Trojans also 8-4 vs. line last 12
vs. non-Belt foes. Clawson debut at Bowling Green, which
nonetheless covered 12 of last 17 on board for Brandon. Falcons were
3-0 as a dog LY and are 7-1 as a regular-season dog since ‘07, also 5-
2 vs. line in reg.-season vs. non-MAC foes since ‘07. Tech edge-slight
to Troy, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at BALL STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Ball
begins the Stan Parrish era. Cards, however, were only 2-5 vs.
number laying DDs the past two glory years under Brady Hoke despite
19-10 spread mark last 29 on board. Todd Dodge just 4-8 vs. line LY,
and UNT only 7-14 vs. spread as visitor dating back to ‘06. Dodge also
just 6-11 as DD dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based
on UNT negatives.
TULSA at TULANE (Friday, September 4)...Tulsa has won and
covered handily last 4 meetings, all by 24 points or more. Todd
Graham teams have also won and covered their last 3 openers with
ease (‘06 at Rice, last two years at Tulsa). Wave really faded down
stretch in ‘08, dropping last 4 vs. number as well as 7 of last 9. Tulane
also no covers its last 4 at home in ‘08. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on
series trends.
NAVY at OHIO STATE...Ugh! Tressel just 1-5 against number last 6
laying DDs at big horseshoe. Tressel also just 1-4 against points last
5 hosting non-Big Ten foes. OSU has also failed to cover last two
openers on board. Niumatalolo only 3-4 as dog away from Annapolis
LY, what used to be Navy’s primo role, although Mids still 24-12 vs.
number away from home since ‘04. Navy 5-1 vs. line getting 20 or
more since ‘02, back to the early days of Paul Johnson. Tech edge-
Navy, based on team trends.
AKRON at PENN STATE...Shades has become much meaner with
age, now a fine bully with a 14-5 spread mark last 19 laying DDs.
Shades also now 6-1 vs. number last 7 hosting non-Big Ten foes, and
he’s 16-8 against line his last 24 at Happy Valley. Zips, however,
covered all 4 outside MAC LY and are now 8-3 vs. line last 11 vs. nonconference
foes. Akron has also covered its last 3 tries getting 20 or
more since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to Shades, based on recent bully tendencies.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...Let’s see if Rodriguez can
put last season behind him and begin to reverse the trend at Ann
Arbor, which has been very negative (2-10 vs. line LY, now 2-12 vs.
number last 14 reg.-season games. Wolverines' home nonconference
spread woes go back to Lloyd Carr’s days, however, now
2-8 vs. line their last 10 hosting such foes, and 2-11 last 13 in role.
WMU only 4-7 vs. line last 11 away from Waldo Stadium, and Cubit
has failed to cover last 3 openers on board. Tech edge-slight to
WMU, based on recent Michigan negatives.
UCONN at OHIO...Solich 14-7 vs. line as dog since ‘06. Solich also
6-0 vs. line in non-MAC action the past two seasons. Ohio U also 8-4
vs. line as host since ‘06. UConn 4-1 vs. line as road chalk the past
three seasons, 6-2 in role since ‘04, although Huskies just 5-9 vs.
spread their last 14 on board since late ‘’07. Tech edge-slight to
Ohio, based on Solich dog marks.
NEVADA at NOTRE DAME...Ault just 1-4 vs. line last 5 as dog, Ault
also just 4-9 vs. line facing non-WAC teams away from Reno since
returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in ‘04. Weis, however, no covers in
two tries as DD home chalk in ‘08, now 1-6 laying DD at home since
‘06. Irish also mere 7-15 vs. number last 22 at South Bend, and have
failed to cover opener in past three seasons. Tech edge-slight to
Nevada, based on ND/Weis negatives.
GEORGIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Richt 7-1 vs. line last 8 tries as
road dog. Bulldogs have also covered last 5 vs. non-SEC foes away
from Athens, and are 15-8 vs. spread last 23 games away from Sanford
Stadium. Note that OSU closed ‘08 by failing to cover its last 4 games
after winning its first 8 vs. number. Gundy, however, did cover all 5
tries as home chalk LY, and has covered 4 straight at Stillwater vs.
non-Big XII foes (although Dawgs are a cut above those other
opponents). Tech edge-Georgia, based on extended Richt road/dog
numbers.
KENTUCKY vs. MIAMI-OHIO (at Paul Brown Bengals Stadium,
Cincinnati)...Ugh! UK 7-1-1 vs. number its last 9 facing non-SEC
opposition. Rich Brooks also 9-4-1 vs. number last 14 away from
Lexington. Haywood debut at Miami-Ohio. RedHawks just 4-11 vs.
number last 15 on board, and lost 8 games by 15 points or more LY
under Montgomery (although Miami was 3-1 as DD dog in ‘08).
Expect UK to get the majority of the crowd for this one in Cincy. Tech
edge-Kentucky, based on team trends.
BYU vs. OKLAHOMA (at Jerry Jones Cowboy Stadium,
Arlington, TX)...Bob Stoops 10-3 vs. line LY, now 29-14-1 last 44 on
board dating to late ‘05. Stoops has covered his last 9 reg.-season
games vs. non-Big XII opposition. Sooners also 9-1 vs. number last 10
laying DDs (including 4-0 in role away from Norman LY). BYU was 0-
3 vs. line as dog away from Provo LY, and dropped 8 of its last 9 vs.
spread in ‘08. Cougars also just 1-6 against line last 7 vs. non-MWC
opposition. Tech edge-Oklahoma, based on team trends.
MISSOURI vs. ILLINOIS (at Edward Jones Dome, St.
Louis)...Mizzou has won and covered all four meetings since ‘02,
including wild shootouts the past two years in St. Louis. Pinkel 10-3
vs. number last 13 vs. non-Big XII foes, although Tigers have dropped
their last 3 vs. number as a dog. Pinkel also dropped 7 of last 9 vs.
number in ‘08 as things began to cool down a bit for Mizzou. Zook,
however, just 2-5 as chalk LY and 7-12 vs. line in role since ‘06 (and
that includes 5-2 chalk mark in Rose Bowl year of ’07). Tech edge-
Mizzou, based on team and series trends.
RICE at UAB...Teams haven’t met since ‘06. Rice is “over” 30-6
since ‘06! Bailiff 8-4 vs. line as dog since ‘07, and Owls 14-7 vs.
number their last 21 games on board overall. Rice was also 7-0 vs.
line in games with spreads of 7 or fewer LY. UAB just chalk one time
in past two years for Callaway, and Blazers weren’t favored at all in
‘08. Tech edge-Rice, based on team trends.
BAYLOR at WAKE FOREST...Ugh! Interesting rematch of LY’s
opener won by Wake 41-13, although that was Art Briles’ first game at
Baylor and Robert Griffin had yet to emerge for Bears. By the time
‘08 concluded, Baylor was a hot pointspread commodity, covering
its last 5 and 8 of its last 10. Grobe 7-3 vs. line last 10 vs. non-ACC
foes but has surprisingly failed to cover last 3 at Winston-Salem
hosting non-conference opponents. Tech edge-slight to Baylor,
based on recent trends.
MINNESOTA at SYRACUSE...Marrone debut at Syracuse.
Robinson was just 4-9 vs. line his last 13 as Carrier Dome dog (2-7 last 9
in role), so Marrone will try to reverse those numbers. Gophers cooled off
late LY when dropping 4 of last 5 vs. number, although Minnesota did
cover all 5 of its regular-season games away from Minneapolis. Tech
edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent team trends.
\
ARMY at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Ugh! Ellerson (Army) and English
(EMU) debuts. Ypsilanti not much of a home edge for Eagles lately,
they were 0-3 vs. line at Rynearson Stadium LY and just 3-9 vs. spread
last 12 as host. EMU was also just 0-1 in chalk role the past three
seasons, so this is not a familiar spot for Eagles. EMU also just 1-8
against spread last 9 against non-MAC foes. Army was 4-1 as true
visiting dog LY (not counting neutral field game vs. Navy). Black
Knights also won and covered a close one at home (17-13) over EMU
in ‘08. Tech edge-Army, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN... Bielema losing a bit of
pointspread magic, he’s now just 7-15 vs. spread his last 22 games on
board (and Wisconsin wouldn’t have covered vs. Cal Poly and The
Citadel had those games been on board the past two seasons).
Badgers also just 3-6 vs. line last 9 laying DD numbers. NIU 6-2 vs.
line last 8 as true visitor, and has covered last 4 as true visitor in nonconference
games. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent team trends.
TOLEDO at PURDUE...Hope (Purdue) and Beckman (Toledo)
debuts. Boilermakers just 4-9 vs. line last 13 laying points vs. nonconference
foes. Although one of those covers came vs. Toledo at
Ross-Ade Stadium in ‘07. Rockets were 3-3 vs. line away from Glass
Bowl LY but just 5-12 vs. line in role since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to
Toledo, based on recent Purdue shortcomings.
STANFORD at WASHINGTON STATE...Cougs surprisingly showed
some value down the stretch of horrid ‘08, covering their last 4 games
after dropping first 8 vs. number. WSU only 1-3 vs. line as home dog
LY. Tree in rare road chalk role (only 0-2 in role since ‘04), but
Harbaugh did smash Cougs by 58-0 count LY. Harbaugh also 3-0 vs.
line laying 7 or more since taking Cardinal job in ‘07. Tech edgeslight
to Stanford, based on team trends.
LA TECH at AUBURN...Chizik debut at Auburn. Tigers have had
trouble handling bigger numbers at home lately, just 4-12 vs. number
last 16 as Jordan-Hare chalk. Disastrous ‘08 spread year for Auburn,
just 2-9 vs. line. La Tech, however, just 1-6 vs. number last 7 as road
dog for Derek Dooley, and no covers last 3 as DD dog after 4-1 spread
mark in first 5 in role two seasons ago. Tech edge-slight to La Tech,
based on recent Auburn woes.
NEW MEXICO at TEXAS A&M...Locksley debut at UNM. Rocky
Long had been notoriously tough in road dog role (13-7 from ‘04-08),
so let’s see if Locksley can replicate. Although UNM covered just 2 of
its last 9 road games for Rocky. Mike Sherman was just 0-2 vs. line as
DD home chalk in ‘08 debut season for A&M, and Aggies just 2-5 vs.
number at Kyle Field LY. Ags also just 1-4 vs. line hosting nonconference
foes the past two seasons. Tech edge-slight to A&M,
based on recent Lobo road woes.
VIRGINIA TECH vs. ALABAMA (at Georgia Dome, Atlanta)...Ugh!
Similar opening week spot vs. Clemson at Atlanta was a real
launching pad game for Bama’s ‘08 season. Nick covered first 5 away
from home last season before stumbling twice on road (SEC title and
Sugar Bowl) to end season. Beamer has been a very accomplished
dog for many years, as VT now 10-3 as short since ‘04, and 13-4 in role
as dog since ‘01. Tech edge-Beamer, based on extended dog mark.
IDAHO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Ugh! Debut game for DeWayne
Walker at NMSU. Home team has won and covered last 3 years in this
WAC series. Under Mumme, however, Aggies only 1-4 vs. line at Las
Cruces LY. Akey just 1-5 vs. line as road dog LY and 2-8 last 10 in role
for Vandals. Idaho also just 5-15 vs. line last 20 on board for Akey.
Tech edge-slight to NMSU, based on series home and team trends.
BUFFALO at UTEP...Revenge for Mike Price after losing opener 42-
17 at Buffalo LY. Miners, however, have been poor as chalk lately
(2-7 at Sun Bowl in role since ‘06, 2-10 overall as chalk since ‘06).
Meanwhile, Turner Gill has covered 9 of his last 10 away from home,
and dog team was 11-3 vs. spread in Buffalo games LY. Tech edge-
Buffalo, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at CAL...Big revenge game for Cal after losing at
Maryland 35-27 in that early-morning start last season. Note that
Tedford last year rediscovered some of that Strawberry Canyon magic
from earlier in his Cal career, as Bears were spotless 7-0 SU and vs.
number in Berkeley last season, all as chalk! Cal also 4-1 laying DDs
in ‘08 after 1-9 mark previous 10 in role. Ralph was 2-0 as DD dog in
‘08 and is 8-3 vs. number last 11 in role, but no covers last 3 as nonconference
visitor. Tech edge-slight to Cal, based on recent trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Spartans really cooled off
down stretch last season, dropping last 5 SU and vs. number. Tomey
just 2-7 vs. line as DD road dog since ‘06, although he’s 2-2 that span
when getting 20 or more. Carroll was 3-1 laying 30 or more LY but
he’s only 6-6 vs. line at Coliseum the past two seasons. SC also 8-2 vs.
line last 10 at home vs. non-Pac 10 foes. Tech edge-slight to SC,
based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at ARIZONA...Mike Stoops was able to alter a
long-standing trend of poor Arizona spread efforts at home when
covering 6 of 7 at Tucson last season (4-1 as home chalk, including 4-
0 as DD home chalk as Cats emerged as a bully!). Previously, Cats
were notorious underachievers, especially as home chalk when
covering just 1 of 8 in role the previous 4 seasons. CMU began to lose
a little pointspread magic last season as it gets further away from the
Brian Kelly years, as Chips just 5-6 vs. number in ‘08 after many
outstanding spread numbers the previous few years. CMU still 8-4 as
visiting dog since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to UA, based on recent
home success.
SAN DIEGO STATE at UCLA...Neuheisel covered his only two tries
as chalk LY, but we are inclined to dismiss those results against the
mega-awful Washington teams. Previously Neuheisel teams were
notorious chalk underachievers, covering just 5 of previous 23 laying
points (5-16-2) in role at U-Dub. Bruins, however, have offered surprising
value at Rose Bowl lately, standing 21-6 vs. number last 27 as host (5-2
under Neuheisel in ‘08). This is Brady Hoke debut at SDSU, his Ball State
teams covered 15 of their last 22 as a dog. Aztecs were 5-11 as road
dog under Chuck Long, but he is no longer on sidelines. Tech edge-
SDSU, based on extended Neuheisel and Hoke trends.
LSU at WASHINGTON...Sarkisian debut for Huskies, and nowhere
to go but up for U-Dub after LY’s 0-12 season that included 10 straight
spread losses (!) to end campaign! Huskies still just 4-14 vs. number
their last 18 as dog, however, and 2-9 vs. spread last 11 in Seattle.
LSU making rare trip to the west, and worth noting that Les Miles now
0-6 vs. number last 6 laying DDs. Tigers also just 5-16-2 vs. spread
their last 23 on board. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on recent UDub
negatives.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at NEBRASKA...Ugh! Huskers petitioning for
membership in Sun Belt with three Belt teams on this season’s slate!
Pelini only 2-3 laying DDs in ‘08, Huskers 2-5 last 7 in role, and 4-10
vs. line last 14 in Lincoln (3-5 under Pelini LY). Schnellenberger has
had problems as road dog lately (3-9 as DD road dog since ‘06) and
just 1-10 vs. spread last 11 visiting non-Belt teams. Although FAU is
11-5 vs. line last 16 on board, and some of those poor numbers reflect
then-downtrodden Owl teams of a few years ago. Tech edge-slight to
FAU, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at CLEMSON...MTSU was 3-1 as DD
dog in ‘09, and is now 5-1 vs. number last 6 outside of Belt. Blue
Raiders also a respectable 7-4 vs. line last 11 vs. non-Belt foes in reg.-
season play away from Murfreesboro. Dabo covered a few games
down stretch for Clemson LY but Tigers still just 4-10 vs. number last
14 games on board, and just 9-18 last 27 on board overall. Tech
edge-MTSU, based on team trends.
UL-MONROE at TEXAS...Mack was 7-2 laying DDs in ‘08 and is 8-1
laying 30 or more since ‘05. Mack also 11-3 vs. line vs. nonconference
foes in reg.-season play since ‘05. Weatherbie has been
a decent road/dog play in recent years (15-7 vs. spread away since
‘06, 17-9 as dog that span including 14-6 on road). Warhawks 4-4
their last 8 getting 20 or more. Tech edge-slight to Texas, based on
recent Mack bully trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...Kiffin debut at UT. Vols
had actually improved a bit vs. number at home in the last few years
of the Fulmer regime (13-8 vs. line at Knoxville the past three
seasons, 5-6 as DD home chalk that span after 2-6 mark in role
between ‘04-05). WKU just a baby team in upper division and now in first
full season as Belt member, and Tops were only 2-7 vs. line LY (1-2
getting 20 or more). Tech edge-slight to UT, based on team trends.
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
COLLEGE RELEASES
GEORGIA
Specific situations have proven quite profitable for Georgia
under HC Mark Richt, and the Bulldogs find themselves in a few of
those for their opener Saturday afternoon at Stillwater vs.
Oklahoma State. In particular, Georgia has excelled for Richt away
from Athens, where the Dawgs are 7-1 vs. line last 8 as an
underdog, have covered their last 5 vs. non-SEC foes, as well as
15 of their last 23 overall. Those numbers highlight Georgia as
featured plays in both the Power Underdog and College Coach
as Dog systems vs. the Cowboys. Also note that OSU dropped its
last 4 vs. the line a year ago.
KENTUCKY
Kentucky supporters will gladly put the John Calipari “hoop
hype” on hold Saturday afternoon when making the short trip to
Cincinnati for the '09 gridiron opener against rebuilding Miami-Ohio
at Paul Brown Stadium. Note that the Wildcats have excelled for HC
Rich Brooks when facing non-SEC foes lately, standing 7-1-1 vs.
the number their last 9 in that role. UK is also 9-4-1 vs. the spread
its last 14 away from Lexington. As for the RedHawks, note their
subpar 4-11 spread mark their last 15 games on the board, with 8 of
their 10 SU defeats last year by 15 points or more.
MISSOURI
The border rivalry between Missouri and Illinois has certainly
favored the Tigers this decade, as the Columbia bunch has won
and covered the last four meetings. And pointspread factors
indicate that Mizzou might be worth another look Saturday
afternoon at St. Louis, especially considering the Tigers’ recent
successes (10-3 vs. line last 13) vs. non-Big XII opposition. Mizzou
is also a featured Power Underdog and Rivalry Dog this week.
As for the Illini, note their problems laying points under HC Ron Zook
(just 7-12 vs. number as chalk since ‘06).
ARMY
It’s rare whenever Eastern Michigan lays points, which is a prime
reason the Eagles are a featured “go against” play this week in the
Impotent Favorites system as they host resurgent Army at
Ypsilanti. New EMU HC Ron English will be attempting to reverse
some extended losing patterns, especially at home where the
Eagles dropped all 3 vs. the number in ‘08 and have lost 9 of their
last 12 spread decisions. EMU is also 1-8 vs. the line its last 9 non–
MAC games on the board. Meanwhile, the Black Knights could be
ready to surprise under new HC Rich Ellerson, and note they were
4-1 vs. the line as a true visitor last season.
SAN DIEGO STATE
Extended coaching pointspread trends indicate visiting San
Diego State should be worth a look late Saturday afternoon at the
Rose Bowl vs. UCLA. Consider that new Aztec HC Brady Hoke
made a name for himself at Ball State when his Cards covered 15 of
their last 22 as an underdog, qualifying SDSU as a featured
College Coach as Dog play with Hoke this week. As for Bruin HC
Rick Neuheisel, his extended marks as a favorite are abysmal,
dating back to his U-Dub days; his teams were 5-16-2 their last 23
as chalk before a pair of covers vs. woeful Washington and Wazzu
teams a year ago.
The Gold Sheet Extra
TECHNICIAN'S CORNER...featuring the tech edge!
COLLEGE
SOUTH CAROLINA at NC STATE (Thursday, September 3)... NCS
closed with a rush last season, covering its last 8 games. Although
Wolfpack was not favored in any of those! NCS just 1-6 as chalk since
‘06 (1-2 under O’Brien since '07), but Wolfpack was 5-0 vs. spread in
revenge role LY and will be looking for some after absorbing 34-0
pasting in last season’s opener. Spurrier has covered just 5 of last 18
on board (5-11-2 vs. line). He’s also just 2-6 last 8 as dog, and 2-7 vs.
number last 9 away from Williams-Brice Stadium. Tech edge-NCS,
based on recent trends.
UTAH STATE at UTAH (Thursday, September 3)...Road team is 4-0-
1 vs. line last 5 and 7-1-1 against spread last 9 in this in-state rivalry.
Utes 14-6 vs. number last 20 on board overall, although they were
only 1-2 vs. line laying DDs at Salt Lake City LY. Note Utah “over” 11-
2 last 13 on board. Utags not bad lately, either, 13-6 vs. spread last 19
on board, and covered 8 of last 12 away from Logan. Andersen debut
for Utags. Tech edge-Utah State, based on series and team trends.
OREGON at BOISE STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Chip Kelly
debut at UO. Bellotti was 13-6 vs. line his last 19 as dog away from
home. Ducks 6-2 vs. line in non-Pac 10 action since ‘07 with one of
those defeats vs. Boise LY. Boise only 2-2 vs. line on blue carpet LY
but 39-15 in role since ‘99. Interestingly, Broncos have covered only
2 of last 7 in first game of season on board. Tech edge-slight to
Oregon, based on team trends.
TROY at BOWLING GREEN (Thursday, September 3)...Troy now 7-
2 vs. number last 9 as visiting favorite. Trojans also 8-4 vs. line last 12
vs. non-Belt foes. Clawson debut at Bowling Green, which
nonetheless covered 12 of last 17 on board for Brandon. Falcons were
3-0 as a dog LY and are 7-1 as a regular-season dog since ‘07, also 5-
2 vs. line in reg.-season vs. non-MAC foes since ‘07. Tech edge-slight
to Troy, based on team trends.
NORTH TEXAS at BALL STATE (Thursday, September 3)...Ball
begins the Stan Parrish era. Cards, however, were only 2-5 vs.
number laying DDs the past two glory years under Brady Hoke despite
19-10 spread mark last 29 on board. Todd Dodge just 4-8 vs. line LY,
and UNT only 7-14 vs. spread as visitor dating back to ‘06. Dodge also
just 6-11 as DD dog since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based
on UNT negatives.
TULSA at TULANE (Friday, September 4)...Tulsa has won and
covered handily last 4 meetings, all by 24 points or more. Todd
Graham teams have also won and covered their last 3 openers with
ease (‘06 at Rice, last two years at Tulsa). Wave really faded down
stretch in ‘08, dropping last 4 vs. number as well as 7 of last 9. Tulane
also no covers its last 4 at home in ‘08. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on
series trends.
NAVY at OHIO STATE...Ugh! Tressel just 1-5 against number last 6
laying DDs at big horseshoe. Tressel also just 1-4 against points last
5 hosting non-Big Ten foes. OSU has also failed to cover last two
openers on board. Niumatalolo only 3-4 as dog away from Annapolis
LY, what used to be Navy’s primo role, although Mids still 24-12 vs.
number away from home since ‘04. Navy 5-1 vs. line getting 20 or
more since ‘02, back to the early days of Paul Johnson. Tech edge-
Navy, based on team trends.
AKRON at PENN STATE...Shades has become much meaner with
age, now a fine bully with a 14-5 spread mark last 19 laying DDs.
Shades also now 6-1 vs. number last 7 hosting non-Big Ten foes, and
he’s 16-8 against line his last 24 at Happy Valley. Zips, however,
covered all 4 outside MAC LY and are now 8-3 vs. line last 11 vs. nonconference
foes. Akron has also covered its last 3 tries getting 20 or
more since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to Shades, based on recent bully tendencies.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...Let’s see if Rodriguez can
put last season behind him and begin to reverse the trend at Ann
Arbor, which has been very negative (2-10 vs. line LY, now 2-12 vs.
number last 14 reg.-season games. Wolverines' home nonconference
spread woes go back to Lloyd Carr’s days, however, now
2-8 vs. line their last 10 hosting such foes, and 2-11 last 13 in role.
WMU only 4-7 vs. line last 11 away from Waldo Stadium, and Cubit
has failed to cover last 3 openers on board. Tech edge-slight to
WMU, based on recent Michigan negatives.
UCONN at OHIO...Solich 14-7 vs. line as dog since ‘06. Solich also
6-0 vs. line in non-MAC action the past two seasons. Ohio U also 8-4
vs. line as host since ‘06. UConn 4-1 vs. line as road chalk the past
three seasons, 6-2 in role since ‘04, although Huskies just 5-9 vs.
spread their last 14 on board since late ‘’07. Tech edge-slight to
Ohio, based on Solich dog marks.
NEVADA at NOTRE DAME...Ault just 1-4 vs. line last 5 as dog, Ault
also just 4-9 vs. line facing non-WAC teams away from Reno since
returning to Wolf Pack sidelines in ‘04. Weis, however, no covers in
two tries as DD home chalk in ‘08, now 1-6 laying DD at home since
‘06. Irish also mere 7-15 vs. number last 22 at South Bend, and have
failed to cover opener in past three seasons. Tech edge-slight to
Nevada, based on ND/Weis negatives.
GEORGIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...Richt 7-1 vs. line last 8 tries as
road dog. Bulldogs have also covered last 5 vs. non-SEC foes away
from Athens, and are 15-8 vs. spread last 23 games away from Sanford
Stadium. Note that OSU closed ‘08 by failing to cover its last 4 games
after winning its first 8 vs. number. Gundy, however, did cover all 5
tries as home chalk LY, and has covered 4 straight at Stillwater vs.
non-Big XII foes (although Dawgs are a cut above those other
opponents). Tech edge-Georgia, based on extended Richt road/dog
numbers.
KENTUCKY vs. MIAMI-OHIO (at Paul Brown Bengals Stadium,
Cincinnati)...Ugh! UK 7-1-1 vs. number its last 9 facing non-SEC
opposition. Rich Brooks also 9-4-1 vs. number last 14 away from
Lexington. Haywood debut at Miami-Ohio. RedHawks just 4-11 vs.
number last 15 on board, and lost 8 games by 15 points or more LY
under Montgomery (although Miami was 3-1 as DD dog in ‘08).
Expect UK to get the majority of the crowd for this one in Cincy. Tech
edge-Kentucky, based on team trends.
BYU vs. OKLAHOMA (at Jerry Jones Cowboy Stadium,
Arlington, TX)...Bob Stoops 10-3 vs. line LY, now 29-14-1 last 44 on
board dating to late ‘05. Stoops has covered his last 9 reg.-season
games vs. non-Big XII opposition. Sooners also 9-1 vs. number last 10
laying DDs (including 4-0 in role away from Norman LY). BYU was 0-
3 vs. line as dog away from Provo LY, and dropped 8 of its last 9 vs.
spread in ‘08. Cougars also just 1-6 against line last 7 vs. non-MWC
opposition. Tech edge-Oklahoma, based on team trends.
MISSOURI vs. ILLINOIS (at Edward Jones Dome, St.
Louis)...Mizzou has won and covered all four meetings since ‘02,
including wild shootouts the past two years in St. Louis. Pinkel 10-3
vs. number last 13 vs. non-Big XII foes, although Tigers have dropped
their last 3 vs. number as a dog. Pinkel also dropped 7 of last 9 vs.
number in ‘08 as things began to cool down a bit for Mizzou. Zook,
however, just 2-5 as chalk LY and 7-12 vs. line in role since ‘06 (and
that includes 5-2 chalk mark in Rose Bowl year of ’07). Tech edge-
Mizzou, based on team and series trends.
RICE at UAB...Teams haven’t met since ‘06. Rice is “over” 30-6
since ‘06! Bailiff 8-4 vs. line as dog since ‘07, and Owls 14-7 vs.
number their last 21 games on board overall. Rice was also 7-0 vs.
line in games with spreads of 7 or fewer LY. UAB just chalk one time
in past two years for Callaway, and Blazers weren’t favored at all in
‘08. Tech edge-Rice, based on team trends.
BAYLOR at WAKE FOREST...Ugh! Interesting rematch of LY’s
opener won by Wake 41-13, although that was Art Briles’ first game at
Baylor and Robert Griffin had yet to emerge for Bears. By the time
‘08 concluded, Baylor was a hot pointspread commodity, covering
its last 5 and 8 of its last 10. Grobe 7-3 vs. line last 10 vs. non-ACC
foes but has surprisingly failed to cover last 3 at Winston-Salem
hosting non-conference opponents. Tech edge-slight to Baylor,
based on recent trends.
MINNESOTA at SYRACUSE...Marrone debut at Syracuse.
Robinson was just 4-9 vs. line his last 13 as Carrier Dome dog (2-7 last 9
in role), so Marrone will try to reverse those numbers. Gophers cooled off
late LY when dropping 4 of last 5 vs. number, although Minnesota did
cover all 5 of its regular-season games away from Minneapolis. Tech
edge-slight to Minnesota, based on recent team trends.
\
ARMY at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Ugh! Ellerson (Army) and English
(EMU) debuts. Ypsilanti not much of a home edge for Eagles lately,
they were 0-3 vs. line at Rynearson Stadium LY and just 3-9 vs. spread
last 12 as host. EMU was also just 0-1 in chalk role the past three
seasons, so this is not a familiar spot for Eagles. EMU also just 1-8
against spread last 9 against non-MAC foes. Army was 4-1 as true
visiting dog LY (not counting neutral field game vs. Navy). Black
Knights also won and covered a close one at home (17-13) over EMU
in ‘08. Tech edge-Army, based on team trends.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN... Bielema losing a bit of
pointspread magic, he’s now just 7-15 vs. spread his last 22 games on
board (and Wisconsin wouldn’t have covered vs. Cal Poly and The
Citadel had those games been on board the past two seasons).
Badgers also just 3-6 vs. line last 9 laying DD numbers. NIU 6-2 vs.
line last 8 as true visitor, and has covered last 4 as true visitor in nonconference
games. Tech edge-NIU, based on recent team trends.
TOLEDO at PURDUE...Hope (Purdue) and Beckman (Toledo)
debuts. Boilermakers just 4-9 vs. line last 13 laying points vs. nonconference
foes. Although one of those covers came vs. Toledo at
Ross-Ade Stadium in ‘07. Rockets were 3-3 vs. line away from Glass
Bowl LY but just 5-12 vs. line in role since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to
Toledo, based on recent Purdue shortcomings.
STANFORD at WASHINGTON STATE...Cougs surprisingly showed
some value down the stretch of horrid ‘08, covering their last 4 games
after dropping first 8 vs. number. WSU only 1-3 vs. line as home dog
LY. Tree in rare road chalk role (only 0-2 in role since ‘04), but
Harbaugh did smash Cougs by 58-0 count LY. Harbaugh also 3-0 vs.
line laying 7 or more since taking Cardinal job in ‘07. Tech edgeslight
to Stanford, based on team trends.
LA TECH at AUBURN...Chizik debut at Auburn. Tigers have had
trouble handling bigger numbers at home lately, just 4-12 vs. number
last 16 as Jordan-Hare chalk. Disastrous ‘08 spread year for Auburn,
just 2-9 vs. line. La Tech, however, just 1-6 vs. number last 7 as road
dog for Derek Dooley, and no covers last 3 as DD dog after 4-1 spread
mark in first 5 in role two seasons ago. Tech edge-slight to La Tech,
based on recent Auburn woes.
NEW MEXICO at TEXAS A&M...Locksley debut at UNM. Rocky
Long had been notoriously tough in road dog role (13-7 from ‘04-08),
so let’s see if Locksley can replicate. Although UNM covered just 2 of
its last 9 road games for Rocky. Mike Sherman was just 0-2 vs. line as
DD home chalk in ‘08 debut season for A&M, and Aggies just 2-5 vs.
number at Kyle Field LY. Ags also just 1-4 vs. line hosting nonconference
foes the past two seasons. Tech edge-slight to A&M,
based on recent Lobo road woes.
VIRGINIA TECH vs. ALABAMA (at Georgia Dome, Atlanta)...Ugh!
Similar opening week spot vs. Clemson at Atlanta was a real
launching pad game for Bama’s ‘08 season. Nick covered first 5 away
from home last season before stumbling twice on road (SEC title and
Sugar Bowl) to end season. Beamer has been a very accomplished
dog for many years, as VT now 10-3 as short since ‘04, and 13-4 in role
as dog since ‘01. Tech edge-Beamer, based on extended dog mark.
IDAHO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Ugh! Debut game for DeWayne
Walker at NMSU. Home team has won and covered last 3 years in this
WAC series. Under Mumme, however, Aggies only 1-4 vs. line at Las
Cruces LY. Akey just 1-5 vs. line as road dog LY and 2-8 last 10 in role
for Vandals. Idaho also just 5-15 vs. line last 20 on board for Akey.
Tech edge-slight to NMSU, based on series home and team trends.
BUFFALO at UTEP...Revenge for Mike Price after losing opener 42-
17 at Buffalo LY. Miners, however, have been poor as chalk lately
(2-7 at Sun Bowl in role since ‘06, 2-10 overall as chalk since ‘06).
Meanwhile, Turner Gill has covered 9 of his last 10 away from home,
and dog team was 11-3 vs. spread in Buffalo games LY. Tech edge-
Buffalo, based on team trends.
MARYLAND at CAL...Big revenge game for Cal after losing at
Maryland 35-27 in that early-morning start last season. Note that
Tedford last year rediscovered some of that Strawberry Canyon magic
from earlier in his Cal career, as Bears were spotless 7-0 SU and vs.
number in Berkeley last season, all as chalk! Cal also 4-1 laying DDs
in ‘08 after 1-9 mark previous 10 in role. Ralph was 2-0 as DD dog in
‘08 and is 8-3 vs. number last 11 in role, but no covers last 3 as nonconference
visitor. Tech edge-slight to Cal, based on recent trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at SOUTHERN CAL...Spartans really cooled off
down stretch last season, dropping last 5 SU and vs. number. Tomey
just 2-7 vs. line as DD road dog since ‘06, although he’s 2-2 that span
when getting 20 or more. Carroll was 3-1 laying 30 or more LY but
he’s only 6-6 vs. line at Coliseum the past two seasons. SC also 8-2 vs.
line last 10 at home vs. non-Pac 10 foes. Tech edge-slight to SC,
based on team trends.
CENTRAL MICHIGAN at ARIZONA...Mike Stoops was able to alter a
long-standing trend of poor Arizona spread efforts at home when
covering 6 of 7 at Tucson last season (4-1 as home chalk, including 4-
0 as DD home chalk as Cats emerged as a bully!). Previously, Cats
were notorious underachievers, especially as home chalk when
covering just 1 of 8 in role the previous 4 seasons. CMU began to lose
a little pointspread magic last season as it gets further away from the
Brian Kelly years, as Chips just 5-6 vs. number in ‘08 after many
outstanding spread numbers the previous few years. CMU still 8-4 as
visiting dog since ‘06. Tech edge-slight to UA, based on recent
home success.
SAN DIEGO STATE at UCLA...Neuheisel covered his only two tries
as chalk LY, but we are inclined to dismiss those results against the
mega-awful Washington teams. Previously Neuheisel teams were
notorious chalk underachievers, covering just 5 of previous 23 laying
points (5-16-2) in role at U-Dub. Bruins, however, have offered surprising
value at Rose Bowl lately, standing 21-6 vs. number last 27 as host (5-2
under Neuheisel in ‘08). This is Brady Hoke debut at SDSU, his Ball State
teams covered 15 of their last 22 as a dog. Aztecs were 5-11 as road
dog under Chuck Long, but he is no longer on sidelines. Tech edge-
SDSU, based on extended Neuheisel and Hoke trends.
LSU at WASHINGTON...Sarkisian debut for Huskies, and nowhere
to go but up for U-Dub after LY’s 0-12 season that included 10 straight
spread losses (!) to end campaign! Huskies still just 4-14 vs. number
their last 18 as dog, however, and 2-9 vs. spread last 11 in Seattle.
LSU making rare trip to the west, and worth noting that Les Miles now
0-6 vs. number last 6 laying DDs. Tigers also just 5-16-2 vs. spread
their last 23 on board. Tech edge-slight to LSU, based on recent UDub
negatives.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at NEBRASKA...Ugh! Huskers petitioning for
membership in Sun Belt with three Belt teams on this season’s slate!
Pelini only 2-3 laying DDs in ‘08, Huskers 2-5 last 7 in role, and 4-10
vs. line last 14 in Lincoln (3-5 under Pelini LY). Schnellenberger has
had problems as road dog lately (3-9 as DD road dog since ‘06) and
just 1-10 vs. spread last 11 visiting non-Belt teams. Although FAU is
11-5 vs. line last 16 on board, and some of those poor numbers reflect
then-downtrodden Owl teams of a few years ago. Tech edge-slight to
FAU, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE at CLEMSON...MTSU was 3-1 as DD
dog in ‘09, and is now 5-1 vs. number last 6 outside of Belt. Blue
Raiders also a respectable 7-4 vs. line last 11 vs. non-Belt foes in reg.-
season play away from Murfreesboro. Dabo covered a few games
down stretch for Clemson LY but Tigers still just 4-10 vs. number last
14 games on board, and just 9-18 last 27 on board overall. Tech
edge-MTSU, based on team trends.
UL-MONROE at TEXAS...Mack was 7-2 laying DDs in ‘08 and is 8-1
laying 30 or more since ‘05. Mack also 11-3 vs. line vs. nonconference
foes in reg.-season play since ‘05. Weatherbie has been
a decent road/dog play in recent years (15-7 vs. spread away since
‘06, 17-9 as dog that span including 14-6 on road). Warhawks 4-4
their last 8 getting 20 or more. Tech edge-slight to Texas, based on
recent Mack bully trends.
WESTERN KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...Kiffin debut at UT. Vols
had actually improved a bit vs. number at home in the last few years
of the Fulmer regime (13-8 vs. line at Knoxville the past three
seasons, 5-6 as DD home chalk that span after 2-6 mark in role
between ‘04-05). WKU just a baby team in upper division and now in first
full season as Belt member, and Tops were only 2-7 vs. line LY (1-2
getting 20 or more). Tech edge-slight to UT, based on team trends.
TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
COLLEGE RELEASES
GEORGIA
Specific situations have proven quite profitable for Georgia
under HC Mark Richt, and the Bulldogs find themselves in a few of
those for their opener Saturday afternoon at Stillwater vs.
Oklahoma State. In particular, Georgia has excelled for Richt away
from Athens, where the Dawgs are 7-1 vs. line last 8 as an
underdog, have covered their last 5 vs. non-SEC foes, as well as
15 of their last 23 overall. Those numbers highlight Georgia as
featured plays in both the Power Underdog and College Coach
as Dog systems vs. the Cowboys. Also note that OSU dropped its
last 4 vs. the line a year ago.
KENTUCKY
Kentucky supporters will gladly put the John Calipari “hoop
hype” on hold Saturday afternoon when making the short trip to
Cincinnati for the '09 gridiron opener against rebuilding Miami-Ohio
at Paul Brown Stadium. Note that the Wildcats have excelled for HC
Rich Brooks when facing non-SEC foes lately, standing 7-1-1 vs.
the number their last 9 in that role. UK is also 9-4-1 vs. the spread
its last 14 away from Lexington. As for the RedHawks, note their
subpar 4-11 spread mark their last 15 games on the board, with 8 of
their 10 SU defeats last year by 15 points or more.
MISSOURI
The border rivalry between Missouri and Illinois has certainly
favored the Tigers this decade, as the Columbia bunch has won
and covered the last four meetings. And pointspread factors
indicate that Mizzou might be worth another look Saturday
afternoon at St. Louis, especially considering the Tigers’ recent
successes (10-3 vs. line last 13) vs. non-Big XII opposition. Mizzou
is also a featured Power Underdog and Rivalry Dog this week.
As for the Illini, note their problems laying points under HC Ron Zook
(just 7-12 vs. number as chalk since ‘06).
ARMY
It’s rare whenever Eastern Michigan lays points, which is a prime
reason the Eagles are a featured “go against” play this week in the
Impotent Favorites system as they host resurgent Army at
Ypsilanti. New EMU HC Ron English will be attempting to reverse
some extended losing patterns, especially at home where the
Eagles dropped all 3 vs. the number in ‘08 and have lost 9 of their
last 12 spread decisions. EMU is also 1-8 vs. the line its last 9 non–
MAC games on the board. Meanwhile, the Black Knights could be
ready to surprise under new HC Rich Ellerson, and note they were
4-1 vs. the line as a true visitor last season.
SAN DIEGO STATE
Extended coaching pointspread trends indicate visiting San
Diego State should be worth a look late Saturday afternoon at the
Rose Bowl vs. UCLA. Consider that new Aztec HC Brady Hoke
made a name for himself at Ball State when his Cards covered 15 of
their last 22 as an underdog, qualifying SDSU as a featured
College Coach as Dog play with Hoke this week. As for Bruin HC
Rick Neuheisel, his extended marks as a favorite are abysmal,
dating back to his U-Dub days; his teams were 5-16-2 their last 23
as chalk before a pair of covers vs. woeful Washington and Wazzu
teams a year ago.
