Service Plays Saturday 07/25/09

[mase34]

FantasySportsGametime

Saturday Plays


MLB Baseball

100* Play Colorado (-150) over San Francisco (TOP MLB PLAY)

San Francisco has lost 6 of the last 9 games and they have also lost 8 of the last 11 road games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs. Jonathan Sanchez has lost 9 of the last 11 games as an underdog of +125 to +175 and he is also 0-7 in all road games this season with an ERA of 6.31. Jorge De La Rosa is 3-0 vs. San Francisco over his career with an ERA of 1.07 and he is also 3-0 over his last 3 overall starts with an ERA of 1.69.

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100* Play Seattle (-165) over Cleveland (TOP MLB PLAY)

Cleveland has lost 11 of the last 15 games when playing on a Saturday and they have also lost 7 of the last 11 games vs. AL West Division Opponents. Jeremy Sowers has lost 17 of the last 19 games as a road underdog of +100 or higher and he is also 1-7 in all starts this season with an ERA of 6.32. Erik Bedard has won 9 of the last 10 games when pitching in the month of July and he also has an ERA of 2.70 in all games this season.

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50* Play Tampa Bay (+100) over Toronto (BONUS MLB PLAY)

Toronto has lost 16 of the last 23 games and they have also lost 5 of the last 6 games when batting .240 or worse over the last ten games. Brian Tallet has lost 10 of the last 15 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is also 0-2 over the last 3 starts with an ERA of 8.40. Tampa Bay has won 6 of the last 7 games vs. Toronto and they have also won 12 of the last 18 games when batting .240 or worse over the last twenty games.

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50* Play Philadelphia (-120) over St. Louis (BONUS MLB PLAY)

Philadelphia has won 15 of the last 18 games and they have also won 6 of the last 7 games when their on base percentage is .360 or higher over the last 15 games. Rodrigo Lopez has won 10 of the last 11 home games and he has also won 6 of the last 7 games as a favorite of -110 or higher. Kyle Lohse has lost 5 consecutive road games and he is 0-3 over the last starts with an ERA of 5.14.


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CFL Football


50* Play Saskatchewan (-5) over Edmonton (TOP FOOTBALL PLAY)

Edmonton has lost 4 consecutive games vs. Saskatchewan and they have also lost 17 of the last 25 games as an underdog. Edmonton has lost 15 of the last 21 road games and they are only averaging 19 points a game on offense this season. Saskatchewan has won 18 of the last 23 games as a favorite and they have also won 13 of the last 17 games coming off an UNDER the total.


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WNBA Basketball

50* Play West All-Stars (-1) over East All-Stars (Top WNBA Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Speculating Sports

Our total of the month either tied or won yesterday, depending on when you got it. We are counting it as a tie though because we released it at 9. Matt Holliday entering the line-up after we released the selection was bad luck because the game would have gone dead under without him playing. Anyway today we are featuring our UNDERDOG TOP PLAY, as well as a bonus selection.

Atlanta at Milwaukee 7:05pm EST
Selection: ATLANTA +117
Profile: Other sharp bettors already bet this line down from +125 to +117 over night. Atlanta is one of the hottest and most confident teams in baseball. Today they have their outstanding young righty Tommy Hanson taking the mound. Hanson already faced Milwaukee this season, getting hit hard by them in his first start of the season. I think the Brewers will have success against him, but he will also be motivated to rebound from that poor showing. Hanson gave up three home runs in that, with most of the runs coming at the end of his outing. I feel that he will really focus here. Meanwhile, Milwaukee righty Yovani Gallardo is in poor current form. He has allowed an average of two base runners per inning and posted a 6.75 ERA. Gallardo does strikeout a good amount of batters, but allows too many walks and hits. I look for the hot Braves line-up to hit him and the Brewers bullpen hard. Atlanta has hit over .300 as a team in 6 of their last 9 games, including last night. The Braves are absolutely crushing right handed pitching right now, and I look for their bats to be the difference in this game.
3 UNIT SELECTION

NY Mets at Houston 7:05pm EST
Selection: HOUSTON -134
Profile: Oddsmakers are finally starting to take notice of Houston's dramatically improved play. However, I still feel that the Astros are a great play here. They are facing Mets lefty Jonathan Niese tonight, who has struggled against the three best teams he has faced. Atlanta, Chicago, and Milwaukee all hammered him, and he didn't last very long in those three starts. What is also noticeably is that the Braves absolutely crushed him after they faced him the second time this season, meaning that his stuff wasn't very good after they got used to it. Houston is the much hotter team, while New York is one of the biggest slumping teams in baseball. This line is as low as it is because of Russ Ortiz getting the start. However, Ortiz has pitched much better than expected this season, with only two rough outings. The Mets line-up is still riddled with injuries though, so he will have no problem handling them. The Astros are hitting almost .300 as a team against lefties, and I look for them to crush Niese tonight.
2 UNIT SELECTION


9-3 THIS WEEK

 

[yanks84]

Lou Panelli

20* MLB Tampa Bay +105(100 Dime VEGAS KEY INFO)
10* MLB Cubs over 9.5
10* MLB Phillies over 10
10* MLB Detroit under 8.5
10* MLB Angels -115
10* MLB Dodgers under 9

 

[PDBLING]

seabass vegas 100* houston astros
30* texas, florida
50* st. louis
100* red sox run line
200* atlanta, toronto

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

NL Game of the week
Arizona

Under CFL Edmonton

 

[Henryjames]

igz1 sports

Saturday Card
Friday Recap: 4-2-1 MLB 5* Loser yesterday
Follow me on Twitter now !!

MLB
4* Atlanta +115 (Hanson)

 

[bigbill]

Did someone post Ben Burns CFL GOM last week?

I saw that the total was posted, but I thought we had the GOM as well.

Thanks for the help.

GOM: Edmonton

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOHN MORRISON

78-76 Since 5/27

Yesterday 2-1

Saturday July 25:

MLB Baseball> Philadelphia -135 {Money Line} 4:05 PM. ET.

<MLB Baseball> Detroit -150 {Money Line} 4:05 PM. ET.

<MLB Baseball> Houston -140 {Money Line} 7:05 PM. ET.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Prof8T Covers Run Line Blitz Chase System

Current Record 54-1

7-25-09
NYY (Game 1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

Red Sox Runline

 

[cork999]

Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
100 Dime ---- RED SOX (With Lester) -1 1/2 RUN LINE over ORIOLES (With Guthrie)

Did I or did I not tell you I smelled two huge plays this week? I already cashed in, albeit not the way I expected, on my 75-dime easy winner on Arizona Thursday night as they blasted Pittsburgh in the late innings, 11-4. Tonight, I'm backing the Boston Red Sox on the run line in a similar situation. Honestly, I can't see a single situation in which the Baltimore Orioles have a chance to keep this game within five runs tonight. Boston is in a situation they're not used to being in... catch up mode. They find themselves two-and-a-half games behind the AL East leading NY Yankees and although it's still way too early to start panicking, you know it's in the back of their minds that they need to get wins in games like the one they have in front of them tonight. A team they've absolutely dominated in recent meetings limps back into Fenway tonight in hopes of getting another shot at Jonathan Papelbon. Baltimore left the bases loaded against the Red Sox closer last night in a 3-1 loss as the final two hitters of the inning struck out. That, my friends, was about the best chance the Orioles are going to have in this series of grabbing a road win.

Boston's bats never really got going against Bradley Bergesen, but still managed to squeak out a 3-1 win behind Brad Penny. They scored two in the fourth and one in the fifth, but that's surprisingly all they would need. Tonight it's going to be much different. First off, you can't expect me to believe Boston is only going to score three runs against a struggling Jeremy Guthrie, can you? Secondly, Jon Lester is more than capable of holding his own at home vs. a team he shut out the last time he faced them. Before tonight's 3-run output by the Boston hitters, the Red Sox had scored 6, 10, 4, and 12 runs vs. the Orioles the last four times they have met.

Back to Guthrie... he's been flat out awful against Boston recently (4 innings, 8 hits and 8 runs in his last outing vs. the BoSox) and on the road (3-4 in nine starts with a 6.34 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP in 49 innings). Over his last three road starts, Guthrie has allowed 10 earned runs in 17.1 innings of work and the last time his overall ERA has been under 5 was back on May 30. Since then, Guthrie has been hit hard while struggling a bit with control (over 2 walks per game). In his career vs. Boston, his numbers have been respectable but not great (1-2 record, 4.01 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in eight starts), but the number that sticks out most to me is the fact the Red Sox hit .285 as a team vs. Guthrie. If the Red Sox can hit .285 collectively tonight, they'll have no problem clobbering Baltimore (as I expect them to do).

For Boston, how could you not want Lester on the hill at home in this situation? Forget his 8-7 record overall and concentrate more on his 8-0 career record (in 10 starts) vs. Baltimore. That's right, Lester has OWNED the Orioles in his career, not only winning eight times with no losses, but allowing just 15 earned runs in 62 innings of work. As previously mentioned, Lester last faced Baltimore on June 29th (in Baltimore) and he was absolutely filthy, tossing seven innings of five-hit, scoreless ball while recording not a single walk and striking out eight in the process. LESTER OWNS BALTIMORE and he'll prove it again tonight. Not only that but he's been very effective at home recently, not allowing more than two earned runs in his last four home starts. Lester + Fenway Park + Baltimore's offense = monster Boston win.

Want more proof? Boston has won 50 of the last 66 meetings with Baltimore, 27 of the last 33 vs. the O's in Boston, and 22 of the last 27 Lester starts at home. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 1-5 in their last six overall, 1-4 in Guthrie's last five starts vs. teams from the AL East and 60-130 in the last 190 games vs. a lefty starter. Boys, it doesn't get much easier than this. Boston wins this one going away. Play Boston on the run line as your top play of the day.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND ME-------GL GUYS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim Trushel

Milw. / featured play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Premier Cappers

Boston RL –110 for 4 units

Boston has many advantages over Baltimore and they have been struggling since the all-star break and Baltimore is the team that Boston needed to see at home with them winning their last 10 games at home against them and 7 of 8 this season. On top of all of this we are getting the better pitcher in Lester on this hill whom is 8-7 this season with 3.87 ERA but has been pitching his best all season his last 9 games having 9 quality starts in a row. He is also 2-0 against Baltimore this season going 14 innings giving 0 runs. Guthrie will be on the hill for Baltimore today and he is 7-8 with a 5.12 ERA and is 3-4 with a 6.34 ERA on the road. In his only meeting against Boston this season he gave up 8 runs in 4.2 innings pitched. A couple of trends to consider is Boston is 32-14 at home this season while Baltimore is 15-33 away from home. Baltimore is 6-28 their last 34 games against Boston in Boston dating back a few seasons. With Boston hitting .277 against right handed starters at home and Baltimore is hitting .217 away from home against lefty starters. I think Boston is going to build momentum in this game and they have the better pitching from top to bottom in this game and if Boston can put some runs for support we will win this game with no problem today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Half bets
SSG

Tampa Bay vs Toronto - 1pm

PICK: Toronto ML -108 (8*)

 

[cork999]

Chris Jordan
Saturday's winner ...


600♦ BOSTON RED SOX RUN LINE (LIST Lester and Guthrie) - The five-game skid is over and the Red Sox should be in high gear to start a winning streak now. Off last night’s 3-1 win over the Orioles – its seventh win in eight meetings this season – Boston treks Jon Lester to the hill, and that’s an automatic for me when these two get together. The southpaw Lester is a perfect 8-0 in his career against the Orioles, and has already shut them down twice this year.

In 10 career starts against the O’s, Lester also sports a stifling 2.18 ERA, while he’s allowed a total of four runs while winning the last five in a row. In this year’s meetings, Lester has struck out 17 in 14 scoreless innings, while scattering nine hits. And get this: he’s sporting twice as many career wins against the Orioles as he has versus any other opponent.

He comes in with plenty of momentum too; the left-hander is 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA in his last nine starts overall. His success comes directly from a fearless approach of challenging hitters with four quality pitches. He has a heater that reaches the mid-90s, two crisp breaking balls and a baffling change-up that freezes batters on command. And what I love most about a guy like Lester, he’ll call upon any one of those pitches – not to mention the occasional slider and back-door curve – anytime in the count.

A pitcher with confidence is someone I always want on my side, and Lester is that type of guy. Like a Maddux, like a Clemens, and I guess these days, like a Buehrle!

Boston has won 14 of 16 against the Orioles since July 12, 2008 and also holds a 28-6 edge at Fenway Park against them; after last night, Baltimore has lost 10 straight in Beantown.

Delving into the numbers a bit deeper, the Orioles are mired in extensive losing streaks of 16-44 on the road, 16-51 in this series, 16-46 against intra-division foes, 15-43 as a road pup, 1-4 in Jeremy Guthrie’s last five against the East and 2-6 when the toes the slab on five days rest.

With Boston, the winning runs include a 10-0 spurt when Lester is a home chalk of two bucks or more, 25-5 when he’s installed as a home favorite, 14-4 against losing teams and 23-9 in the team’s last 32 division clashes.

And news flash to all, Boston’s lineup should be getting that boost today from Adam LaRoche, who is scheduled to make his debut with the team after being acquired this past week from the Pirates. Remember when Jason Bay debuted last season? Same situation, as everything points to the Red Sox in a blowout win tonight.




BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND ME------GL GUYS

 

[backdoorcover1]

1 of wunderdog run line

Game: Minnesota at Los Angeles Angels (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 runs +170 (runline)

The Angels have gotten healthier as the year has progressed, and it has certainly showed up in the won/loss column. The Angels are playing about as good as anyone right now, and have put the last seven in the win column as well as 11 of their last 12. This team has not only been winning, but winning big as they are 16-4 in their last 20 wins to a would be -1.5 runline. The Twins have always been a tough out at home, but have surrendered to defeat on the road with regularity. They have already dropped the first two here, making the tally five of their last six in the loss column on this road trip. Blackburn has struggled of late, but that isn't even the start of the story. The Twins are 0-11 in his last 11 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Angels reach the boiling point off of a win as they are now 22-5 after putting one in the win column. The Halos are too hot to handle right now, against a struggling road team. The Angels get the nod on the runline

 

[JDizzle311]

CORK!!!!!!!!!! I HAD CHRIS JORDAN COMING!

I BOUGHT HIM FOR A WEEK, which ended today.....so it would've been best to wait! Guess I should've been more clear about this...

 

[marfa5]

Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play
5 Dime - Atlanta Braves

When Atlanta cut Tom Glavine loose in favor of adding Tommy Hanson to the rotation, there was some immediate second-guessing after the 23-year-old rookie was hit hard in his first start against Milwaukee, a game in which he served up three homers and allowed six earned runs in six innings. But, Hanson has proven his worth and mettle repeatedly since, going 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA in his next seven starts, including 2-0 with a 2.66 earned run average in four road outings.

Hanson's mound opponent tonight, Yovani Gallardo, is 0-3 with a 5.09 ERA in his last four starts, a stretch in which he's allowed 39 baserunners in 23 innings. He will face an Atlanta team that's not only won 11 of 15, but one that has batted .316 and averaged 6.3 runs a game while going 7-2 since the All Star break.

Gallardo has pitched well in the past against Atlanta, going 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in two previous outings. But considering his recent struggles, and Milwaukee's 6-13 swoon in July, taking a hot Atlanta team with a quickly maturing rookie hurler in Hanson as a slight road underdog is a wise investment strategy.

Paid & confirmed by Cork, Ironhorse & me

GL!

 

[tannguyen94]

John Morrison

Official Play
7/25 Toronto
Tampa Bay
Note: We have only lost the bet one time in over ONE AND A HALF YEARS of baseball!

 

[marfa5]

Drew Gordon

Today's Games...
1. 100,000♦ Diamondbacks
2. 50,000♦ Brewers

1. Diamondbacks- Couple things I like about this match up for Arizona, but let's start with the fact they're seeing the ball well, recording 10 or more hits in 5 of their L7 games, despite going 3-4 over that span. True, the Pirates dropped 10 runs on the D-Backs yesterday, but don't be fooled, you don't trade away so many pieces without feeling an effect sooner or later. True, the emergence of Garrett Jones has helped soften the blow, but rest-assured, the Bucs will have their work cut out for them tonight.

Why you ask? Because I believe this is the spot where veteran southpaw Doug Davis bounces back. I know full well he's gotten stomped the last two times out, but before you putting him on your "fade list," consider he got touched up by to teams that happen to be solid against lefties (Florida 10-6 away vs lefties AND we all know Colorado kills lefties at Coors). Its only makes sense that he should settle down tonight at home (where he posts a solid 3.33 ERA) against a less potent Pirates offense.

Surprisingly the Diamondbacks offensive surge has taken place on the road for the most part, where they've been below average this season. Now in their first two games of this series back at Chase Field, we've seen a total of 14 runs on 23 hits! We know the D-Backs can hit at home, and that's bad news for the Pirates Ross Ohlendorf. Not only has the Pirates righty been atrocious on the road, going 2-5 with a 5.91 ERA this season, but we've seen a marked decrease in stamina over his last 3 starts. In other words, in his first full season as a starter, Ohlendorf is starting to fatigue. Look for the D-Backs suddenly surging offense to take full advantage tonight.

Finally, I leave you with one key stat... Did you know the Pirates are just 4-11 vs left-handed starters on the road this season?! They average a meager 4.3 runs per game in that spot, and are batting just .243 in the process. In the end, don't give up on Davis just yet, as the Pirates Ohlendorf gets into big trouble tonight on the road, giving Davis the support he so desperately needs.

Take the Diamondbacks behind Davis over the Pirates and Ohlendorf as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Brewers- Tommy Hanson at plus money? This is a "gift" from Vegas right? Of course NOT! Guys, how many times do I have to tell you: Vegas is not in the habit of giving away "gifts," and that remains true in this match up. So why take the struggling Brewers in this match up? Two words: Yovani Gallardo.

You see, bettors who are so enamored with Tommy Hanson seem to forget how well Gallardo pitched against Atlanta his last time out, he tossed 8 scoreless, allowing only 2 hits in one of his best starts of the season June 5th... And that was at Turner Field! In fact, the Brewers righty is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 2 career starts versus Atlanta! Coming off a nice quality effort at Cincinnati, I'm looking for Gallardo to get his first win in almost a month tonight.

I'm not going to sit here and bad mouth Hanson, who is one of the more electric rookie pitchers out there. However, let's not get carried away, as the young gun still has a lot to learn, and just because he dominated a piss-poor Giants offense in his last start, doesn't mean he's going to do the same to the Brewers tonight. In fact, the only team to give Hanson trouble was the Brewers in his Major League debut, touching him up for 6 runs over 6 innings June 7th.

Bottom line, its never easy to go against a team that's surging like the Braves are right now, but if there's any pitcher who can throw a cold bucket of water on their offense, its Gallardo. On the flip side, I like Hanson as much as the next guy, but the Brewers have proven a tough match up for the young righty, and I suspect that'll continue tonight. In the end, the Brewers AND Gallardo are desperate for a W, and I say they get it tonight at Miller Park.

Take the Brewers behind Gallardo over the Braves and Hanson in this MLB match up.

Paid & confirmed by Cork, Ironhorse & me

GL!