Craig Davis
Saturday's Lineup
20 Dime ---- PIRATES (Must list Duke as starting pitcher)
10 Dime ---- CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Harden as starting pitcher)
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (must list Duke) --- Coming in off a 3-1 loss to Detroit last night, the Pirates can ill-afford to continue their losing ways if they want to stay in contention in the NL Central division race. Yes, I realize it's too early to call this a "must win" game, but when the ace of your staff is on the hill, you need to take full advantage of it. The Pirates send Zach Duke to the hill in an attempt to quiet the Detroit bats tonight.
I'm aware of Duke's struggles in his last outing, but if you look at his numbers against Atlanta it wasn't really a surprise that he struggled. It also wasn't a surprise that the game was on the road, because if you compare his home numbers vs. his road numbers, you can clearly see he pitches better in front of the home fans. Duke's season ERA is a very respectable 3.07 while his WHIP is 1.20... but when you compare his home ERA (2.66) and his home WHIP (1.09) to his overall numbers, it's clear to see why I'm backing him tonight pitching at PNC Park. Duke's last four home starts consisted of three games in which he allowed just one earned run and the other, though not great, was still a decent outing in which he allowed four earned runs. Duke's numbers over his career are also better in night games as opposed to those played under the sun, posting a 5.00 ERA in the daytime vs. a 3.86 ERA at night... and we catch the Pirates playing a Saturday NIGHT game today.
Detroit counters with Armando Gallaraga, and although he was thought to be one of the Tigers' better starters this year, he hasn't quite lived up to the billing. Gallaraga comes in with a 5.07 ERA, including not having won a game since all the way back on April 26th. The Pirates are 15-12 playing at home despite an overall losing record, and with the knowledge that Duke is better at home, this one should be easy. Top play of the day on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
CHICAGO CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (must list Harden) --- Harden hasn't pitched a game since going on the DL with a lower back strain back on May 18th, so you might be wondering why I'm so confident backing a guy like this against a team that has proven they can hit the ball like Minnesota did yesterday. Well, simply put, I don't think he was hurt that badly and the rest will only help a guy who has had numerous injury issues over the past few years.
Let's also remember something about Harden... he pitched a few years in Oakland and has seen this Minnesota team four times in his short career... beating them once without losing a single game. Harden's career ERA vs. Minnesota is a stellar 2.13 while his WHIP is 1.11, so please don't look at his season ERA when judging how you think Harden will fare against the Twins today. Harden knows exactly how to pitch to American League teams and you'll be surprised when all is said and done how well he finishes this game.
The Cubs need this win badly right now and couldn't be asking for a better situational pitcher to be on the hill than Harden. The Cubs are 16-11 at home and after yesterday's setback, you can expect to come out and play some very good baseball today. My money is on the Cubs to win this game behind Harden, 6-2. Bonus play on the Cubs (and Harden) on the run line.
PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME !!!
Good Luck