Service Plays Saturday 06/13/09

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Wunderdog

Game: Washington at Tampa Bay (6:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.9)

Anyway you look at this one, the numbers are pretty ugly for the Nationals. Their road futility has led them to a 94-176 mark in their last 270 games. This year they are 6-21. The news doesn't get better however, it gets worse. They are also 9-42 in their last 51 road games when facing a right handed starter. Overall they are now also 15-56 vs. a team with a winning record. To compound those problems they face a Tampa team that is now 76-36 in their last 112 at home and on a 13-4 run at home in their last 17. The Rays are 43-9 in their last 52 as a favorite from -150 to -200. Kind of makes these odds posted here look rather small to me so I'm riding the Rays in this one.
Game: Washington at Tampa Bay (6:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs +130 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3.9)

I pointed out in my moneyline writeup for this one all the huge tendencies for these teams. With 71%+ odds of winning combined we get a lot of value on the Rays at + odds on the run line. The Rays have now outscored their opponents by a 57-25 count in their last 10 home games. They won eight of them by an average margin of 52-17! They are averaging 5.9 runs per game at home and 6.0 vs. RHP while Washington is getting only 4.4 per game. Andy Sonnanstine has pitched to a 4.30 ERA at home while Zimmerman has posted a 6.85 road ERA. The bullpen difference: 3.77 ERA vs. 5.30 ERA. The Nats are just 11-24 to the run line vs. winning teams this season. I'll take the + odds on this one.
Game: San Diego at Los Angels Angels (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angels Angels -210 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.4)

The Angels will go with Joe Saunders against the Padres in this one. Saunders has had his ups and downs this season, but when he faces losing teams with weak lineups, he has excelled. Against good teams, Saunders has a 9.09 ERA. But against teams with a losing record this season, has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in seven starts and the Angels are 6-1 in those games! The Angels have out-scored the seven weak opponents in Saunders starts by 30-12. The Padres bring just a 9-21 road mark into this one, and are just 23-63 in their last 86 as a road dog, and just 1-10 in their last 11 interleague games as a road dog. They have laid the goose-egg in Geer's last six starts on the road. Too much value here to let pass by, and I'll go with the Angels in this one.
Game: San Diego at Los Angels Angels (9:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Los Angels Angels -1.5 runs +100 (runline) (risk 3 to win 3)

If you look at Joe Saunders overall numbers they are fairly pedestrian, but when you break them down into what he has done vs. good teams (.500+), and poor teams (under .500), he becomes a Hall of Famer so far this season vs. the bad teams like San Diego. Saunders has made seven starts against poor teams, and is 6-1 with a 1.47 ERA, with the Angels winning the seven games by a 30-12 count, and 28-8 in the six wins. This means the opponent is getting 1.7 runs in all games, and just 1.25 in the wins. That means if the Angels can get to 3 runs here against a pitcher that has seen teams score 33 runs in his four road starts (over 8 per game), we have an easy winner. Going with the Angels on the runline at nice odds.
 

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Michael Cannon

Saturday's Plays

15 Dime ORIOLES (With Kawakami and Hill as listed pitchers)Take the Orioles for the home win over the Braves.I know it may seem puzzling to some, but I believe Rich Hill will have a tremendous bounce back start tonight after getting destroyed by Oakland in his last start. The left-hander couldnt get out of the first inning and allowed three runs while walking four batters.But Hill has enjoyed success against the Braves in his career, going 3-0 with a 0.94 ERA in four games. He has allowed just 17 hits and has 30 strikeouts in 28 2-3 innings over that span.Atlanta will counter with Kenshin Kawakami, who is 3-6 on the year with a 4.62 ERA. The right-hander seems snake bit right now and with Hills success against the Braves I wouldnt be surprised to see Atlanta stymied again tonight. Kawakami started the year off by getting rocked, then settled into a decent groove but cant get any run support. If he does get the support, the bullpen blows it for him.Too much bad karma right now surrounding him.Take the Orioles as they grab the home win.



5 Dime REDS (With Arroyo and Davies as listed pitchers)Take the Reds for the road win over the Royals.Kansas City, despite winning last night, is just in an awful funk right now. The Royals have gone 8-23 since May 7, with a team batting average of .233 and a 4.84 ERA in those 31 games.Kyle Davies will start and he is currently riding a career-high five-game losing streak. He has received just six total runs of support during that slide and that trend will probably continue tonight.The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo, who is 7-4 on the year despite a 5.00 ERA. The reason for his solid record obviously is the run support he gets, so look for the Reds bats to come through tonight against Davies.Take the Reds as they grab the road win.
 

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Doc's Sports

6-Unit Play Take #920 Philadelphia Phillies -110 over Boston Red Sox (7:05p.m.)

The Phillies are our IL Game Of The Year

3-Unit Play Take #930 San Francisco Giants -110 over Oakland A’s (10:05p.m.)

3-unit Play Take #928 Los Angeles Angels -140 over San Diego Padres (9:05p.m.)
 
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Indiancowboy Bonus Play

Take Under 9 between San Diego Padres @ LA Angels

Vegas knows best. 75% of the public are riding the Angels in the contest against the Padres today in Anaheim. And, why not. Saunders is on a bounce-back after a rough start where he gave up 4 runs in 6 innings (a non-quality start) in Detroit, where the Angels lost 6-9. The lefty has struggled a bit latey but he has yet to have back to back non-quality starts as he hits the mound today. But, why the less than -130 on the Angels at home with Saunders on the bounce-back? Well, my assumption is that Vegas expects a positive performance from Geer today as he looks to bounce-back from a loss against the Diamondbacks where he picked up a ND, but his team lost 6-9. We did a similar under on a paid play when we took the Under between the Giants/Nationals when Vegas put a very short line on Lincecum on the highway as they expected a solid performance from the young Nat pitcher. We decided to stay away from the side and took the Under as we expected positive performances from both and it panned out. This is much the same theory that is applied here today. The Under is 9-2 when the Angels face a righty and the Under is 8-1 for the Padres when they face a lefty such as Saunders on the road.
 

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Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-MLB (5-0 all-sports run the L2 days!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the SF Giants at 10:05 ET. Oddsmaker's Error 15* SF Giants.

Good Luck...Larry
 
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Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee won on Friday with the Giants -$160/A's.

For Saturday "Mr Chalk" likes the Fightin Phillies -$120/R Sox.

"Mr Chalk" is 3-1 +$120 for the week and 39-25 -$170 for the MLB season.
 

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Craig Davis

Saturday's Lineup


20 Dime ---- PIRATES (Must list Duke as starting pitcher)



10 Dime ---- CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (Must list Harden as starting pitcher)



PITTSBURGH PIRATES (must list Duke) --- Coming in off a 3-1 loss to Detroit last night, the Pirates can ill-afford to continue their losing ways if they want to stay in contention in the NL Central division race. Yes, I realize it's too early to call this a "must win" game, but when the ace of your staff is on the hill, you need to take full advantage of it. The Pirates send Zach Duke to the hill in an attempt to quiet the Detroit bats tonight.



I'm aware of Duke's struggles in his last outing, but if you look at his numbers against Atlanta it wasn't really a surprise that he struggled. It also wasn't a surprise that the game was on the road, because if you compare his home numbers vs. his road numbers, you can clearly see he pitches better in front of the home fans. Duke's season ERA is a very respectable 3.07 while his WHIP is 1.20... but when you compare his home ERA (2.66) and his home WHIP (1.09) to his overall numbers, it's clear to see why I'm backing him tonight pitching at PNC Park. Duke's last four home starts consisted of three games in which he allowed just one earned run and the other, though not great, was still a decent outing in which he allowed four earned runs. Duke's numbers over his career are also better in night games as opposed to those played under the sun, posting a 5.00 ERA in the daytime vs. a 3.86 ERA at night... and we catch the Pirates playing a Saturday NIGHT game today.



Detroit counters with Armando Gallaraga, and although he was thought to be one of the Tigers' better starters this year, he hasn't quite lived up to the billing. Gallaraga comes in with a 5.07 ERA, including not having won a game since all the way back on April 26th. The Pirates are 15-12 playing at home despite an overall losing record, and with the knowledge that Duke is better at home, this one should be easy. Top play of the day on the Pittsburgh Pirates.





CHICAGO CUBS -1 1/2 RUN LINE (must list Harden) --- Harden hasn't pitched a game since going on the DL with a lower back strain back on May 18th, so you might be wondering why I'm so confident backing a guy like this against a team that has proven they can hit the ball like Minnesota did yesterday. Well, simply put, I don't think he was hurt that badly and the rest will only help a guy who has had numerous injury issues over the past few years.



Let's also remember something about Harden... he pitched a few years in Oakland and has seen this Minnesota team four times in his short career... beating them once without losing a single game. Harden's career ERA vs. Minnesota is a stellar 2.13 while his WHIP is 1.11, so please don't look at his season ERA when judging how you think Harden will fare against the Twins today. Harden knows exactly how to pitch to American League teams and you'll be surprised when all is said and done how well he finishes this game.



The Cubs need this win badly right now and couldn't be asking for a better situational pitcher to be on the hill than Harden. The Cubs are 16-11 at home and after yesterday's setback, you can expect to come out and play some very good baseball today. My money is on the Cubs to win this game behind Harden, 6-2. Bonus play on the Cubs (and Harden) on the run line.

PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME !!!

Good Luck
 

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Yankee Capper

Pittsburgh Pirates -115
Boston Red Sox +120
Mets/Yankees Over 11
San Diego Padres +1.5
 

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Sportsbetcapping-Freddy Wills

The Pirates have not been their usual terrible self. They are 15-12 at home winning games with a solid starting staff. Today they'll have Zach Duke going up against Gallaraga. Public bettors are about 50-50 on this game here, but the line has moved significantly since opening at -108 for the Tigers it is now up to -126 on the Pirates despite their troubles in inter league play.

Pirates 16-40 in inter league play is the main reason why I just can't make this a premium selection. Duke has been dominant at home coming off 4 straight outings at home of going 7 or more innings pitched. He has a season ERA at home of 2.66 with a 4-2 record in 6 GS.

Gallaraga on the other hand has been consistently bad home/away. On the road he has a 5.20 ERA with a 1-3 record. What stuck out to me was the Tigers road avg. vs. LHP which is .233 and a 3.64 runs per 9 and a bullpen that just can't get it done at 5.02 ERA. The Pirates have enjoyed RHP at home hitting close to .300 at .292. I really like this McCuthcen kid that is now starting in place of Nate Mclouth. He has a .310 avg, in just 38 AB, with only 1BB he needs to be more patient to get on base because the kid can fly.

Worth noting is umpire behind the plate Everitt has gone in favor of the home team 38 out of his last 54 games!

Take Pirates @ -115 1DIME PLAY (1-5SCALE)
 
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ASA's 7* INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE YEAR

ASA's MLB HUGE INTERLEAGUE TOTAL - TOP GAME!

PLAY ON Under the Total, Detroit (Galarraga) vs. Pittsburgh (Duke), Saturday at 7:00 PM EST
 
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indiancowboy


4 Unit Play. Take the Phoenix Mercury -7 over the Sacramento Monarchs (Saturday @ 10pm est). After a team like the Mercury who are 2-0 and dynamic at home and who get rocked against a Monarchs team desperate for a win, it is great to take the Mercury as they return home and look for revenge. This is the same Phoenix team that beat New York by 7 and San Antonio by 11 at home. My only worry is that the public is on Phoenix, but its all good as sometimes the public wins and the revenge angle is nice here. I can't imagine Taurasi, Pondexter, Smith and Johnson having another horrible game nor can I imagine the Monarchs shooting lights out for 90 points once again, I look for the Monarchs to have a big let down likely on the road while the Mercury bounce-back nicely at home. What's nice about home and homes is that revenge plays a major factor, and with the high potent offense of Phoenix, why not take the Suns to win by double-digits tonight. The Monarchs are 1-4 ATS following 0 days rest and the Mercury have covered their last 5 home games.
Good luck,



4 Unit Play. Take Under 9.5 between the LA Dodgers @ Texas Rangers (Saturday @ 8pm est).

The Dodgers look to bounce-back from 0-6 loss to the Rangers yesterday. They will send Wolf to the mound who has been hit hard in his last two contests and who really needs a bounce-back today. What stinks for him is the fact Arlington is a hitter's ballpark but having said that, I have been founding the under in Texas for quite some time. In particular, when Feldman starts, I have been really going after the Under. Feldman has pitched in 9 straight Unders and we have been on at least 5 of them that I can think off my head. The young man from Hawaii is 5-1 and has dropped his era down to 4.01. Note, he had a non-quality start and I expect him to bounce-back today as I expect Wolf to bounce-back from back to back non-quality outings. So, you have two pitchers who are on bounce-back and although I think the Rangers are likely to roll once again, let's just ride the Under wave in Scott Feldman games to potentially make it 10 straight Unders for Feldman. The Under is 9-0 overall for Feldman of late and the Under is 9-2 in the Dodger's last 11 interleague games
 

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3Daily Winners

Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies (MLB) - Jun 13, 2009 8:10 PM EDT

Play: Money Line: -169 Colorado Rockies
PLAY ON any team like Colorado after five or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two marginal losing teams (46 to 49 percent). Since 1997, this system checks in at 35-6, 85.4 percent.

Lekota Sports

Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles (MLB) - Jun 13, 2009 7:05 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -107 Atlanta Braves
 

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Dr Baseball Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, June 13, 2009
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Toronto w/Janssen -140 1:05 EST

Already went off.
 
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TONY STOFFO

Nationals at Rays
Pick: Rays -153

Anytime we can get a good value price with a solid pitcher getting the start against Washington makes for a highly recommended play against the Nationals. And that's exactly what we have here as I feel that Andy Sonnanstine is rounding into his top form cycle.

Washington is 1-12 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. Tampa Bay is 31-7 against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.

Washington is 4-23 against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.

Washington is 11-31 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.
 

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