Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB bowls (UCF/Baylor)
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on UCF at 8:30 ET.
UCF and Baylor each went 11-1 (UCF winning the newly-formed AAC title and Baylor capturing the Big 12 title), the best seasons in school history for both schools. This Fiesta Bowl meeting is the first BCS bowl game for both Baylor and UCF (11-1) and when the teams take the field tonight in Glendale, Arizona, it will also mark the first-ever meeting between the two schools.
This game also mark what is arguably the best QB matchup this bowl season, Bryce Petty leads No. 6 Baylor and the nation's most potent offense into the Fiesta Bowl against Blake Bortles and 15th-ranked UCF. Petty (61.8% for 3,844 yards with 30 TDs and two INTs plus 11 rushing TDs) leads an offense which scored a nation-best 53.3 PPG while averaging 624.4 YPG. Both marks were just shy of setting NCAA records for points (56.0) and yards (624.9). Bortles completes 68.1 percent for 3,280 yards with 22 TDs and seven INTs plus also added five rushing TDs for a UCF team which averaged 33.2 PPG on 432.0 YPG.
Art Briles of Baylor has done a terrific job at Waco but keeps emphasizing the job is not done. "Now that we've established ourselves as Big 12 champions, like I told the freshmen earlier today, it's not like we've reached the mountaintop," the Bears' head coach said. "We've still got a lot to reach for. We're at a good point in our program and now the duty is to maintain that."
This is also uncharted territory for UCF, which wrapped up a BCS bid with Louisville's win over Cincinnati on Dec 5 and added the inaugural American Athletic Conference title by holding off SMU 17-13 in an ice storm two days later. The Knights also won 11 games in 2010, but that led to the Liberty Bowl as opposed to a BCS berth. They have won a school-record EIGHT straight, but only two by more than SEVEN points, since the team's lone loss this year, a 28-25 to then-No. 12 South Carolina on Sep 28.
"It's something everyone at UCF is excited about, the administration, the fan base," coach George O'Leary said. "Anytime you have a first in anything, people get very excited, but especially when you're invited to a bowl like the Fiesta." O'Leary becomes the latest coach tasked with finding a way to slow Baylor's nearly point-per-minute offense.
Baylor has a chance to win three straight bowl games for the first time in school history, after combining for 116 points in wins over Washington in the Alamo Bowl and UCLA in the Holiday Bowl the past two years. UCF has also won its last two bowl appearances (after losing its first three), but is 0-5 against current teams from the Big 12.
That said, UCF ranks 13th nationally in points allowed (19.6 per) and O'Leary's team has lost just only TWO games by more than 10 points over the last FOUR years. The unique grass surface at this venue may help erode some of Baylor’s speed and UCH has proved it can perform well on the big stage v. highly-ranked teams.
The Knights played Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team dead-even at Columbia back on Sp 28th, falling 28-25 as seven-point dogs and then won 38-35 at Louisville on Oct 18th, as 14-point favorites (win which put UCF in the 'driver's seat' in the AAC, the rest pf the season).
George O'Leary is 5-2ATS as a double-digit underdog and UCF was a PERFECT3-0 as an underdog in 2013. Meanwhile, Baylor was only 1-3 ATS in road games this year. This is a neutral-site game but the gritty Knights are getting a 'ton' of points. I'm taking them.