StatSystemsSports
Rounding The Bases – Monday
#903 MIAMI @ #904 NY METS
TV: 7:10 PM EST, SNY New York
Line: NY Mets -140, Total: 6.5, -120
The Miami Marlins and the New York Mets are likely too far behind in the National League wild-card race, but they have both taken steps forward in 2014. The Marlins, who have already won 10 more games than last season with 72, visit New York on Monday to begin a three-game series between the NL East rivals. Miami is 6 ½ games behind Pittsburgh for the NL’s second wild card and the Mets are one more game back, needing a strong final two weeks to post their best record since 2008.
Jarred Cosart faces the Mets for the first time and New York will counter with rookie Jacob DeGrom, who is 2-0 while permitting just one earned run in 20 innings over three starts against Miami. The Marlins rallied for four runs in the ninth to beat Philadelphia 5-4 Sunday and snap a four-game losing streak. The Mets (72-78), who need to finish 8-6 for its most wins since recording 89 in 2008, have dropped three of their last four.
PITCHING MATCHUP
•Marlins RH Jarred Cosart (13-9, 3.70 ERA, WHIP: 1.325) - Cosart continues to shine for the Marlins since he was acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, boasting a 4-2 record with a 1.93 ERA in seven starts. The former 38th-round pick gave up two runs (one earned) over six innings to lose at Milwaukee in his last start on Wednesday. Cosart, who has allowed only eight homers in 163 innings, beat Atlanta twice and the Los Angeles Angels in his previous three outings.
•Mets RH Jacob DeGrom (8-6, 2.62 ERA, WHIP: 1.147) - One of the keys in New York’s resurgence has been DeGrom, who is 2-0 while yielding two runs (none earned) and 12 hits over 21 innings in his last three starts. The 26-year-old beat Miami on Sept. 3 when he permitted one unearned run over six innings. Casey McGehee is 3-for-8 versus DeGrom, who has given up three or fewer runs in 17 of his first 20 major-league starts while striking out 121 in 127 1/3 innings.
•PREGAME NOTES: The Mets are 5-1 at home and have won 10 of 16 games overall against Miami this season.... The Marlins have won a major league-leading 33 one-run games in 2014, breaking the franchise record of 32 set in 1997 and 2000.... New York CF Juan Lagares is batting .333 with 18 hits and seven stolen bases in 13 September games.
•KEY STATS
--MIAMI is 18-48 (-24.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 2.8, OPPONENT 4.4.
--NY METS are 19-7 (+14.1 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 this season.
The average score was NY METS 4.2, OPPONENT 3.1.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: NY METS is 30-23 (+1.2 Units) against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons. 26 of 47 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +2.0 Units.
--Games This Season: NY METS is 10-6 (+4.0 Units) against MIAMI this season. 7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season Over= +1.0 Units.
--All Games at NY METS Over The Last 3 Seasons: NY METS is 17-7 (+6.3 Units) against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons. 12 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +0.9 Units.
•RECENT TRENDS
--MIA is 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
--MIA is 1-6 after scoring 5 runs or more.
--MIA is 0-4 in their L4 as a road underdog.
--NYM are 13-3 L16 games as a home favorite.
--NYM are 5-0 in DeGroms last 5 home starts.
--NYM are 4-1 in DeGroms L5 starts vs. NL East.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MIAMI) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) -NL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.
(55-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +36.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -151.7
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 2.8 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (14-5, +6.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-11, +25.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (79-27, +37.2 units).
**StatSystemsSports.net Prediction: NY Mets 4, Miami 2
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