VegasButcher - NBA
Toronto Raptors -3.5 (1st Half Only)
Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, with an off-day yesterday. The difference is that while Toronto has gotten healthier (Lou Williams returns), New Orleans is dealing with some major injuries. Neither Anthony Davis, a top-5 player in the league, nor Ryan Anderson, one of the best shooters in the league, will be available. Consider the fact that Holiday is still out and the Pelicans are missing 3 of their top-5 players in today’s contest. While Pelicans are coming off an improbable road win (Davis only played 9 minutes @ Miami), Toronto is coming off their worst loss of the season. I expect a stronger effort in this ‘bounce-back’ spot for the Raptors, especially early in the game. Toronto has a game @ Dallas tomorrow, which will be their 4th game in 5 nights, so we might see them manage some of their players’ minutes in the 2nd half of this one, so I’m staying away from the full-game.
Brooklyn Nets -2
Denver is now 2 – 15 in the last 17 games, they’re on a b2b and 3in4 spot tonight, and Wilson Chandler is questionable for this one with an injury. This is important because Chandler is Denver’s 3rd leading scorer this season, right behind #2 Afflalo who is no longer with the team. Even if he plays, Brooklyn should have too much ‘quality’ in this one. Lopez, Plumlee, and newly acquired Thad Young should have a major advantage in the paint in this one. Deron Williams is coming off his best game in years, and taking on a smaller and an un-motivated Lawson tonight, I’d expect him to have another excellent showing. And Joe Johnson and Anderson provide enough quality on the wing here. This Denver team is a disaster and Brooklyn is the much ‘better’ team in tonight’s matchup.
Utah Jazz +6
The Spurs continue to be over-valued based on their ‘Championship’ pedigree, but these teams aren’t this far off. The current spread indicates that San Antonio is about 8.5 points better on a neutral court. I don’t see that being the case. The Jazz are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games and are probably playing their ‘best’ ball of the season right now. They’ve gotten rid of a disgruntled Enes Kanter, and now feature an ultra-freak athlete in the paint by the name of Rudy Gobert. Gobert is an awesome defender and shot-blocker, who is a true definition of a rim-protect. Opposing centers have had a PER of 14.4 against him (15 PER is average) and the Jazz allow 6.3 fewer pointers per 100 possessions with Gobert on the court. By comparison, Kanter has allowed opposing centers a PER average of 18.5 and the Jazz have actually allowed 3.9 MORE points per 100 possessions with him on the court. To go from an absolutely ‘zero’ on the defensive end in Kanter to committing to Gobert, was partly a reason why Utah held Portland to 76 points on 36% from the field in their first game after the ASB. With Gobert and Favors in for Utah, the Spurs will have a tough time scoring efficiently in the paint as I believe Duncan will have a very tough matchup in this one. San Antonio is only 2 – 9 – 1 ATS in the last 12 games, and I believe they’re overvalued once again tonight. I like Utah’s chances of keeping this one close as a home underdog.
Memphis Grizzlies +4
I’ve faded this Clippers team twice since the ASB, rationalizing that they’re bound to fall off with Griffin’s absence. They squeaked out a win against the Spurs on 02/19 as San Antonio’s “hack-a-Jordan” approach fell short, and then proceeded to blow out the Kings on 02/21, as Sacramento was on the 2nd of a b2b, but more importantly, played virtually zero defense in the game. Well I believe ‘3rd time will be the charm’. Memphis is exactly the type of a team that should take advantage of Griffin’s absence. Z-Bo should absolutely abuse both Hawes and Davis, and with Griffin being out, Randolph should be able to conserve his energy on the defensive end. In addition, Grizzlies are excellent against PG’s this year, holding them to an average of 15.7 PER on the season. Conley is an excellent defender and slowing down Chris Paul will be a huge factor in this one. And of course the final major advantage for Memphis is Marc Gasol. While DeAndre Jordan has been playing at a very high level lately, Gasol is one of the best defenders in the league while also one of the savvier offensive facilitators. Jordan won’t be able to provide as much ‘help defense’ as he typically does for the Clips, as he’ll have to be fully focused on defending Gasol at all times. Overall, I believe the Grizzlies are a bad matchup for this Clippers team, especially with Griffin out with an injury. Memphis ranks 4th in DefEff, 25th in Pace, and have top-5 TO-ratios on both sides of the court. If they can slow down the game and force the Clips to play in the ‘half-court’, the Grizzlies should have a great shot of winning this game. They’ve been successful in doing just that lately, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Clippers. I like their chances tonight as well.
Toronto Raptors -3.5 (1st Half Only)
Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, with an off-day yesterday. The difference is that while Toronto has gotten healthier (Lou Williams returns), New Orleans is dealing with some major injuries. Neither Anthony Davis, a top-5 player in the league, nor Ryan Anderson, one of the best shooters in the league, will be available. Consider the fact that Holiday is still out and the Pelicans are missing 3 of their top-5 players in today’s contest. While Pelicans are coming off an improbable road win (Davis only played 9 minutes @ Miami), Toronto is coming off their worst loss of the season. I expect a stronger effort in this ‘bounce-back’ spot for the Raptors, especially early in the game. Toronto has a game @ Dallas tomorrow, which will be their 4th game in 5 nights, so we might see them manage some of their players’ minutes in the 2nd half of this one, so I’m staying away from the full-game.
Brooklyn Nets -2
Denver is now 2 – 15 in the last 17 games, they’re on a b2b and 3in4 spot tonight, and Wilson Chandler is questionable for this one with an injury. This is important because Chandler is Denver’s 3rd leading scorer this season, right behind #2 Afflalo who is no longer with the team. Even if he plays, Brooklyn should have too much ‘quality’ in this one. Lopez, Plumlee, and newly acquired Thad Young should have a major advantage in the paint in this one. Deron Williams is coming off his best game in years, and taking on a smaller and an un-motivated Lawson tonight, I’d expect him to have another excellent showing. And Joe Johnson and Anderson provide enough quality on the wing here. This Denver team is a disaster and Brooklyn is the much ‘better’ team in tonight’s matchup.
Utah Jazz +6
The Spurs continue to be over-valued based on their ‘Championship’ pedigree, but these teams aren’t this far off. The current spread indicates that San Antonio is about 8.5 points better on a neutral court. I don’t see that being the case. The Jazz are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games and are probably playing their ‘best’ ball of the season right now. They’ve gotten rid of a disgruntled Enes Kanter, and now feature an ultra-freak athlete in the paint by the name of Rudy Gobert. Gobert is an awesome defender and shot-blocker, who is a true definition of a rim-protect. Opposing centers have had a PER of 14.4 against him (15 PER is average) and the Jazz allow 6.3 fewer pointers per 100 possessions with Gobert on the court. By comparison, Kanter has allowed opposing centers a PER average of 18.5 and the Jazz have actually allowed 3.9 MORE points per 100 possessions with him on the court. To go from an absolutely ‘zero’ on the defensive end in Kanter to committing to Gobert, was partly a reason why Utah held Portland to 76 points on 36% from the field in their first game after the ASB. With Gobert and Favors in for Utah, the Spurs will have a tough time scoring efficiently in the paint as I believe Duncan will have a very tough matchup in this one. San Antonio is only 2 – 9 – 1 ATS in the last 12 games, and I believe they’re overvalued once again tonight. I like Utah’s chances of keeping this one close as a home underdog.
Memphis Grizzlies +4
I’ve faded this Clippers team twice since the ASB, rationalizing that they’re bound to fall off with Griffin’s absence. They squeaked out a win against the Spurs on 02/19 as San Antonio’s “hack-a-Jordan” approach fell short, and then proceeded to blow out the Kings on 02/21, as Sacramento was on the 2nd of a b2b, but more importantly, played virtually zero defense in the game. Well I believe ‘3rd time will be the charm’. Memphis is exactly the type of a team that should take advantage of Griffin’s absence. Z-Bo should absolutely abuse both Hawes and Davis, and with Griffin being out, Randolph should be able to conserve his energy on the defensive end. In addition, Grizzlies are excellent against PG’s this year, holding them to an average of 15.7 PER on the season. Conley is an excellent defender and slowing down Chris Paul will be a huge factor in this one. And of course the final major advantage for Memphis is Marc Gasol. While DeAndre Jordan has been playing at a very high level lately, Gasol is one of the best defenders in the league while also one of the savvier offensive facilitators. Jordan won’t be able to provide as much ‘help defense’ as he typically does for the Clips, as he’ll have to be fully focused on defending Gasol at all times. Overall, I believe the Grizzlies are a bad matchup for this Clippers team, especially with Griffin out with an injury. Memphis ranks 4th in DefEff, 25th in Pace, and have top-5 TO-ratios on both sides of the court. If they can slow down the game and force the Clips to play in the ‘half-court’, the Grizzlies should have a great shot of winning this game. They’ve been successful in doing just that lately, winning 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Clippers. I like their chances tonight as well.
