STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY DECEMBER 22nd, 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #16 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#131 DENVER @ #132 CINCINNATI
TV: 8:30 PM ET, ESPN/WatchESPN
Line: Broncos -3, Total: 47.5
Several historical obstacles stand in the way of the Cincinnati Bengals ahead of their key matchup against the Denver Broncos. They haven't won in primetime, can't seem to beat the Broncos and are winless against Peyton Manning. Should the Bengals reverse those trends when they host Denver on Monday night, they will clinch their fourth consecutive postseason berth. Cincinnati (9-4-1) is coming off its strongest overall performance after easily cruising to a 30-0 drubbing of Cleveland on Sunday. Jeremy Hill picked up AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after rushing for 148 yards and two touchdowns, and the defense forced rookie Johnny Manziel into two interceptions and just 80 passing yards.
Now the focus switches to a much more tenured quarterback. "It's going to be a big shift, safe to say," head coach Marvin Lewis said of facing Manning. "It's a challenge. He gets everyone's attention in this building right away. The player he is, how he carries himself, how he runs things on the field -- it's going to be a great challenge for us. It's what it's supposed to be in December, just like this." Manning is 8-0 in his career against the Bengals, most recently completing 27 of 35 passes for 291 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-23 win over Cincinnati on November 4th, 2012. That victory was the latest in a long line of dominance for Denver in the series -- even without Manning at the helm.
The Broncos beat Cincinnati in Andy Dalton's second career start in 2011 after needing a last-minute, tip-drill 87-yard touchdown pass to move past the Bengals in 2009. Denver has won 13 of the last 15 meetings with Cincinnati. "We have to get through this game before we have any opportunities at January," Lewis said. "It's been (a playoff mentality) for the last seven weeks, since Halloween. Preparation and how you go about it, and the confidence of knowing what to do and how to do it allows you to play fast. That's the most important thing, for us: to play fast, to play physical, to play smart."
Denver (11-3) has already punched its ticket to the postseason, but a first-round bye and home-field advantage remain at stake. The Broncos can clinch the bye with a win, but would need to jump New England (11-3) in the standings for the AFC's top seed. They beat San Diego 22-10 on Sunday to secure their fourth consecutive AFC West championship. "It's our goal every year. Everybody's hope and dream before the season is you'll be hoisting that championship trophy," coach John Fox said. "We got close last year and came up short... Obviously, (the AFC West title) is a great accomplishment, but we still have more season left."
Despite having Manning under center, the Broncos have won four straight behind a well-established run game. Since falling in St. Louis on November 16th, Denver has rushed for 164.8 yards per game, including a 111-yard effort against the Chargers. Manning rebounded from his first zero-touchdown performance with the Broncos in a victory over Buffalo on December 7th, completing 14 of 20 attempts for 233 yards and a TD while playing through an illness. He expects to be fully healthy against the Bengals, whom he has torched for 20 touchdowns in his career while throwing just five interceptions.
Cincinnati's run-heavy offense will face a stout challenge from Denver, which ranks among league leaders with 71.6 rushing yards allowed per game. Led by Hill and Giovanni Bernard, the rushing attack has amassed 145.3 yards per game and six TDs since Week #12. Denver has been less imposing against the pass but made sure to lock down top cover corner Chris Harris Jr., signing the fourth-year player to a five-year, $42.5 million extension last week. He'll be rewarded with a matchup against A.J. Green and a Bengals passing attack that has failed to top 300 yards in eight of the last nine games.
"We know these next two games are going to be real big," said Dalton, whose 82.9 rating ranks 16th of 20 National Football League quarterbacks with at least 400 attempts. "The way our division is going, everyone keeps winning... We know what we are facing. They are really important." Cincinnati has been blown out twice in primetime this season, losing 43-17 at New England in a Sunday night game October 5th and 24-3 to the Browns on Thursday night November 6th.
Denver's primetime results have been quite the opposite. The Broncos are 4-0 in night games this season, most recently defeating the Kansas City Chiefs 29-16 on November 30th. The Broncos and Bengals last met with postseason implications on Christmas Eve 2006. Trailing by seven with under a minute remaining, Carson Palmer threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to trim it to 24-23, but the snap was botched on the extra-point attempt and Cincinnati ultimately missed the playoffs by one game.
•RESEARCH NOTES: According to our NFL database here at StatSystemsSports.net the last ten home teams off a shutout win are 8-2 straight-up and versus the spread. The Bengals are also 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last five contests versus AFC West opponents, but must struggle to overcome a lousy 1-8 SU and ATS Monday Night mark in non-division bouts. Keep in mind that the Broncos hold a similar aversion, posting a 0-10 SU record and a 2-8 ATS mark in their last 10 Monday Night games versus non-division foes. It also reminds us of Peyton Manning’s 13-4 SU record on MNF and his (as mentioned above) dominant 8-0 lifetime record versus Cincinnati.
Denver is playing on the road for the sixth time in their last eight games and is 2-9 straight-up and 2-8-1 versus the spread in Last Road Games versus opponents off a straight-up win. They will also be missing their leading tackler 6’1” LB Brandon Marshall with a foot sprain, besides losing 6’1” 240 lbs Danny Trevathan (last year’s leading tackler) who had just returned after missing eleven games this season with a knee fracture. FYI: Marvin Lewis is 17-8-1 ATS as an underdog in his career when his team is off a double-digit spread win, including is 5-0 ATS when off a division cakewalk.
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•KEY STATS
--DENVER is 49-21 OVER (+25.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=130 rushing yards/game since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 24.6, OPPONENT 23.1.
--DENVER is 9-1 against the 1rst half line (+7.9 Units) off a double digit road win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 17.9, OPPONENT 5.0.
--DENVER is 16-6 UNDER (+9.4 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 15.5, OPPONENT 8.9.
--CINCINNATI is 52-29 OVER (+20.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 21.0, OPPONENT 24.3.
--CINCINNATI is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 20.5, OPPONENT 19.0.
--CINCINNATI is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 23.6, OPPONENT 15.9.
--CINCINNATI is 8-0 against the 1rst half line (+8.0 Units) in home games versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 15.4, OPPONENT 5.6.
--CINCINNATI is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 13.2, OPPONENT 6.2.
--CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 13.7, OPPONENT 6.6.
--CINCINNATI is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 11.5, OPPONENT 6.9.
--CINCINNATI is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 10.2, OPPONENT 6.9.
•COACHING TRENDS
--JOHN FOX is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 23.6, OPPONENT 18.9.
--JOHN FOX is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games versus poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing >= 24 yards per return as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 27.3, OPPONENT 18.8.
--JOHN FOX is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) against AFC North division opponents as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 33.4, OPPONENT 22.6.
--JOHN FOX is 12-2 OVER (+9.8 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of DENVER.
The average score was DENVER 29.9, OPPONENT 28.0.
--JOHN FOX is 37-15 against the 1rst half line (+20.5 Units) after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 12.9, OPPONENT 9.1.
--JOHN FOX is 23-8 UNDER (+14.2 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 9.9, OPPONENT 7.9.
--MARVIN LEWIS is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games versus excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was CINCINNATI 19.0, OPPONENT 26.8.
--MARVIN LEWIS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was CINCINNATI 23.7, OPPONENT 18.7.
--MARVIN LEWIS is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was CINCINNATI 13.3, OPPONENT 7.4.
--MARVIN LEWIS is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was CINCINNATI 8.6, OPPONENT 10.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
Strangely, road teams have dominated this AFC series of late, going 4-0 straight-up and 5-1 versus the spread since 2003. In 2012, the Broncos won 31-23 in Cincinnati as 5-point road favorites. They also won and covered in a 12-7 defensive struggle at Paul Brown Stadium as 5-point road underdogs in 2009. The last two games in Denver were nearly identical: 24-23 and 24-22 Broncos’ wins.
--CINCINNATI is 6-5 against the spread versus DENVER since 1992.
--DENVER is 9-2 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--DENVER is 6-5 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1992.
--7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--DEN is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
--DEN is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
--Under is 5-0 in DEN last 5 games in December.
--CIN is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week #16.
--CIN is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in December.
--Under is 10-4 in CIN last 14 games in Week #16.
StatSystemsSports.net has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 46 times, while the underdog covered the spread 33 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 60 times, while the underdog won straight up 22 times. 36 games went under the total, while 16 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 61 times, while the underdog covered first half line 50 times. *No EDGE. 45 games went under first half total, while 27 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (CINCINNATI) - an average offensive team (18-23 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23), after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, in the last 2 weeks of the regular season.
(26-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9, Opponent 7.9 (Total first half points scored = 16.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (42-16).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (77-27).
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