STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY NOVEMBER, 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #9 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#473 INDIANAPOLIS @ #474 NY GIANTS
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Colts -3, Total: 51.5
The bye week came just in time for the New York Giants, who will attempt to halt a two-game skid when they host Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football. Back-to-back road losses to division rivals Philadelphia and Dallas dropped the Giants below .500 and they face a steep climb to get back into the playoff picture in the NFC. "We've got nine games to play as well as we can possibly play," New York coach Tom Coughlin said. "I think anybody in that locker room can do that."
The Colts were riding high with a five-game winning streak, but it came to a screeching halt in a 51-34 setback at Pittsburgh during Week #8. Indianapolis had allowed 17 points or fewer four times during its five-game run and was coming off a shutout before its defense was shredded by Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers, allowing six touchdown passes and more than 500 yards through the air. "Just like a great win, you can't let a loss like this linger," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "There's a team sitting and waiting and licking its chops in New York right now who's going to be well-rested."
•ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3 SU, 6-2-0 ATS): Indianapolis has a pair of familiar faces in the lineup in ex-Giants Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw. While Nicks has been a non-factor at wideout despite playing in the league's top passing attack, Bradshaw has been an integral part of the offense while sharing time with Trent Richardson in the backfield, rushing for a pair of scores while tying for the team lead with six scoring receptions. Reggie Wayne (elbow) is expected to return to the lineup after missing last Sunday's game and will provide a boost to Luck, who leads the league with 2,731 passing yards and is tied with predecessor Peyton Manning with an NFL-best 22 touchdowns. The Colts led the AFC in total yards allowed until surrendering a whopping 639 to Pittsburgh.
•ABOUT THE GIANTS (3-4 SU, 3-4-0 ATS): New York had won three in a row and rolled up a staggering 105 points in the process, but it was shut out in Philadelphia and unable to keep pace with Dallas prior to the bye week. With leading rusher Rashad Jennings (knee) set to miss his third straight game and leading receiver Victor Cruz lost for the season in the debacle against Philadelphia, rookie first-round pick Odell Beckham Jr. figures to play a bigger role after hauling in a pair of touchdown passes from Eli Manning versus Dallas. Manning led the league in interceptions (27) last season and threw five more in the first four games, but he hasn't been picked off in the last three. Rookie running back Andre Williams rushed for 110 yards in the past two games while subbing for Jennings.
•PREGAME NOTES: Luck had his sixth straight 300-yard game last week, breaking Peyton Manning's franchise record.... Manning is 2-0 on Monday Night Football, throwing for four touchdowns and zero interceptions, but Indianapolis is one of two opponents that he's never beaten.... Wayne needs five receiving yards to surpass James Lofton (14,004) for eighth place on the all-time list.... New York has won its last five post-bye games, with three of last four of those wins by 14+ points; Giants are 8-10 in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. Colts are 10-7-1 in such games under Pagano, 2-2 this year.... Indy is 5-8 versus the spread in their last 13 non-divisional road games. Giants covered three of last nine against AFC teams.... Over is 5-2 in last seven Colts games, 3-1-1 in last five Giant games.
•RESEARCH NOTES
Luck is 11-1 straight-up and against the spread in his NFL career in games off a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, Indianapolis brings a 1-7 SU and ATS mark into the Meadowlands in games off a SU loss when facing a .500 NFC East opponent. On the flip side, Manning enters with plenty of self-confidence when playing in games off a straight-up favorite loss, going 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS home and 5-0 SU and ATS when facing a foe off a SU double-digit loss. Furthermore, according to our database here at StatSystemsSports.net: NFL Monday night games involving both teams off a straight-up favorite loss has seen the home team go 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS since 1980 when coming off a division loss, including 5-0 ATS when facing a greater than .600 opponent. It also reminds us that New York owns a spotless 4-0 SU and ATS mark at home on Monday Night Football and that NFL teams favored in the game after facing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are 18-39-1 ATS, including 8-28-1 ATS when facing a sub .500 opponent.
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•KEY STATS
--INDIANAPOLIS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.7, OPPONENT 18.1.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 24.3, OPPONENT 13.7.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1992.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 19.2, OPPONENT 20.0.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 1-9 against the 1rst half line (-8.9 Units) in road games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 10.3, OPPONENT 19.8.
--NY GIANTS are 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 22.7, OPPONENT 17.5.
--NY GIANTS are 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 23.6, OPPONENT 22.2.
--NY GIANTS are 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in home games versus excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 19.4, OPPONENT 16.3.
--NY GIANTS are 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in home games versus dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 20.1, OPPONENT 15.7.
--NY GIANTS are 72-37 UNDER (+31.3 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 19.7, OPPONENT 18.1.
--NY GIANTS are 45-21 UNDER (+21.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 9.1, OPPONENT 9.8.
--NY GIANTS are 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 8.8, OPPONENT 10.5.
•COACHING TRENDS
--CHUCK PAGANO is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) after having won 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS.
The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 7.7, OPPONENT 25.7.
--TOM COUGHLIN is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in November games as the coach of NY GIANTS.
The average score was NY GIANTS 21.7, OPPONENT 22.8.
--TOM COUGHLIN is 31-16 UNDER (+13.3 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 yards/game as the coach of NY GIANTS.
The average score was NY GIANTS 25.2, OPPONENT 21.8.
--TOM COUGHLIN is 27-11 UNDER (+14.7 Units) after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of NY GIANTS.
The average score was NY GIANTS 22.3, OPPONENT 19.5.
--TOM COUGHLIN is 26-9 against the 1rst half line (+16.1 Units) versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return as the coach of NY GIANTS.
The average score was NY GIANTS 13.8, OPPONENT 9.2.
--TOM COUGHLIN is 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was COUGHLIN 19.2, OPPONENT 10.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS since 1992.
--INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS since 1992.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NY GIANTS is 2-2 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANAPOLIS since 1992.
--3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
•RECENT TRENDS
--IND is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
--IND is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
--Under is 6-2 in IND last 8 games in Week #9.
--NYG are 19-42-2 ATS in their last 63 games in November.
--NYG are 4-9-1 ATS in their L14 games following a bye week.
--Under is 14-6 in NYG last 20 games following a bye week.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 46 times, while the underdog covered the spread 30 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 54 times, while the underdog won straight up 24 times. 12 games went under the total, while 9 games went over the total. #No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 66 times, while the underdog covered first half line 50 times. *No EDGE. 27 games went under first half total, while 9 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS:Play Under - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (INDIANAPOLIS) – an excellent passing team (>=265 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/game), after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in the second half of the season.
(28-7 since 1983.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 52.2
The average score in these games was: Team 22.6, Opponent 23.6 (Total points scored = 46.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 17 (48.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).
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