Utah (509) vs. Minnesota(510) - November 28, 2016 - 8:00 PM
Pick: Your pick will be graded at bookmaker @ Under 194.5 -110
Expert:Teddy Covers
Evaluation:Nov 28 - 8:00 PM
Star Rating:10.0
Reason For Pick:
10*
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota – Utah UNDER (#509-510)
There have been two previous meetings between Quin Snyder and Tom Thibodeau as NBA head coaches, the two Jazz – Bulls games from the 2014-15 campaign. Neither team reached 100 in either meeting: 97-77 and 97-95 final scores, both games staying well Under the total.
These teams met four times last year. Three of the four meetings stayed Under the total by big margins – the loser was held to 90 or less in all four games, and the winner failed to reach 100 in three of them. These are not two teams or two coaches looking to run up and down the floor.
And that’s exactly what we can expect tonight – a slower paced, defensive minded game. In this pointspread range, there’s a decent chance we end up with a tight, one possession game in the latter stages of the fourth quarter, great for depressing scoring without late ‘scramble’ points.
This total is set based on full season numbers. But looking at Minnesota’s full season numbers right now is an exercise in ‘betting bad numbers’. Thibodeau is a defensive guy, but the T-wolves defense has been spotty in early season play – no surprise there. In their first ten games of the season, Minnesota allowed more than 100 points eight times while going 7-3 to the Over.
But as Thibodeau has gotten his players more comfortable on the defensive end, the T-wolves numbers have changed fairly dramatically in recent weeks. They’ve held four of their last six foes under 100; 5-1 to the Under during that span. This team is head and shoulders better on the defensive end of the court compared to where they were a month ago, but the markets haven’t made the appropriate adjustments……yet!
The T-wolves are coming off a rough defensive game, lit up for 56% shooting and 115 points by the Golden State Warriors. Yet even in that game, their defensive improvement clearly showed, holding a Warriors team that had 47 assists in their previous home game, but only 25 assists against Minnesota. I’m very interested in taking the T-wolves Under following a game in which they allowed 115, even if it was against the Warriors.
Utah, too, had some early season defensive deficiencies, but not lately! The Jazz are coming off a truly stifling defensive effort against the Hawks, holding Atlanta to 68 points on 31% shooting. Low post stud Rudy Gobert: “I’m pleased with the way my teammates played. I try to push them to focus on defense. When we’re playing good defense, it’s hard to beat us. Tonight, we did our best defensive game of the year.”
That game was not an aberration in any way. The Jazz rank #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and their D is even better now that point guard George Hill is back on the floor following an injury absence. Expect a slow paced defensive struggle from start to finish in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Under.
Pick: Your pick will be graded at bookmaker @ Under 194.5 -110
Expert:Teddy Covers
Evaluation:Nov 28 - 8:00 PM
Star Rating:10.0
Reason For Pick:
10*
Big Ticket: Take Minnesota – Utah UNDER (#509-510)
There have been two previous meetings between Quin Snyder and Tom Thibodeau as NBA head coaches, the two Jazz – Bulls games from the 2014-15 campaign. Neither team reached 100 in either meeting: 97-77 and 97-95 final scores, both games staying well Under the total.
These teams met four times last year. Three of the four meetings stayed Under the total by big margins – the loser was held to 90 or less in all four games, and the winner failed to reach 100 in three of them. These are not two teams or two coaches looking to run up and down the floor.
And that’s exactly what we can expect tonight – a slower paced, defensive minded game. In this pointspread range, there’s a decent chance we end up with a tight, one possession game in the latter stages of the fourth quarter, great for depressing scoring without late ‘scramble’ points.
This total is set based on full season numbers. But looking at Minnesota’s full season numbers right now is an exercise in ‘betting bad numbers’. Thibodeau is a defensive guy, but the T-wolves defense has been spotty in early season play – no surprise there. In their first ten games of the season, Minnesota allowed more than 100 points eight times while going 7-3 to the Over.
But as Thibodeau has gotten his players more comfortable on the defensive end, the T-wolves numbers have changed fairly dramatically in recent weeks. They’ve held four of their last six foes under 100; 5-1 to the Under during that span. This team is head and shoulders better on the defensive end of the court compared to where they were a month ago, but the markets haven’t made the appropriate adjustments……yet!
The T-wolves are coming off a rough defensive game, lit up for 56% shooting and 115 points by the Golden State Warriors. Yet even in that game, their defensive improvement clearly showed, holding a Warriors team that had 47 assists in their previous home game, but only 25 assists against Minnesota. I’m very interested in taking the T-wolves Under following a game in which they allowed 115, even if it was against the Warriors.
Utah, too, had some early season defensive deficiencies, but not lately! The Jazz are coming off a truly stifling defensive effort against the Hawks, holding Atlanta to 68 points on 31% shooting. Low post stud Rudy Gobert: “I’m pleased with the way my teammates played. I try to push them to focus on defense. When we’re playing good defense, it’s hard to beat us. Tonight, we did our best defensive game of the year.”
That game was not an aberration in any way. The Jazz rank #2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and their D is even better now that point guard George Hill is back on the floor following an injury absence. Expect a slow paced defensive struggle from start to finish in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket: Take the Under.
ave Cokin
