Statfox / The Platinum Sheet
11/10/2008 (233) SAN FRANCISCO at (234) ARIZONA
Sometimes the signs are so obvious that you can’t look past them, regardless of the lofty pointspread. Arizona is on fire offensively
and could be the hungriest organization in all of the NFL. The 49ers meanwhile, are in shambles. With the two meeting in a Monday night affair, which do you think is going to come to play, especially with the game being played in Arizona? Me too. This is a great opportunity for the Cardinals to show the nation how far they’ve come, and why they are in such firm control of the NFC West Division. With a 3-0 SU & ATS mark at home while outscoring teams by 17 PPG, this will be the worst team they will have hosted so far. If that’s not enough, consider that SAN FRANCISCO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 15.1, OPPONENT 34.5 - (Rating = 3*). NFL teams find confidence to be a huge momentum builder. Consider this a coming out party for an improved and confident Cardinals team.
Play: Arizona -10
TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. CAROLINA (-7.5) over OAKLAND 11
2. SAN DIEGO (-14) over KANSAS CITY 10
3. ARIZONA (-11) over SAN FRANCISCO 8
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. CAROLINA (-7.5) over OAKLAND 15
2. NY JETS (-7) over ST LOUIS 8
3. ARIZONA (-11) over SAN FRANCISCO 7
11/10/2008 (233) SAN FRANCISCO at (234) ARIZONA
Sometimes the signs are so obvious that you can’t look past them, regardless of the lofty pointspread. Arizona is on fire offensively
and could be the hungriest organization in all of the NFL. The 49ers meanwhile, are in shambles. With the two meeting in a Monday night affair, which do you think is going to come to play, especially with the game being played in Arizona? Me too. This is a great opportunity for the Cardinals to show the nation how far they’ve come, and why they are in such firm control of the NFC West Division. With a 3-0 SU & ATS mark at home while outscoring teams by 17 PPG, this will be the worst team they will have hosted so far. If that’s not enough, consider that SAN FRANCISCO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 15.1, OPPONENT 34.5 - (Rating = 3*). NFL teams find confidence to be a huge momentum builder. Consider this a coming out party for an improved and confident Cardinals team.
Play: Arizona -10
TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:
1. CAROLINA (-7.5) over OAKLAND 11
2. SAN DIEGO (-14) over KANSAS CITY 10
3. ARIZONA (-11) over SAN FRANCISCO 8
TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. CAROLINA (-7.5) over OAKLAND 15
2. NY JETS (-7) over ST LOUIS 8
3. ARIZONA (-11) over SAN FRANCISCO 7
THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (Monday, November 10)...Note that
visiting team 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 in series, with 49ers covering last
3 trips to desert. SF, however, no wins or covers last 5 in ‘08, and
Cards have won and covered their last 4 at U of P Stadium. Cards
“over” 23-7 last 30 on board. Tech edge-“Over" and slight to
49ers, based on “totals” and series road trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (Monday, November 10)...Note that
visiting team 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 in series, with 49ers covering last
3 trips to desert. SF, however, no wins or covers last 5 in ‘08, and
Cards have won and covered their last 4 at U of P Stadium. Cards
“over” 23-7 last 30 on board. Tech edge-“Over" and slight to
49ers, based on “totals” and series road trends.
The Gold Sheet
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10
*ARIZONA 35 - San Francisco 20—Second contest for new S.F. coach Mike Singletary, who—in just his first game—ejected one of his own players, went “Bob Knight” at halftime to show the 49ers how they were playing, then had a future Coors Light tirade after the game! At least he’s entertaining. He’s since apologized, and he’s named Shaun Hill (2-0 as a starter LY in Games 14 & 15) S.F.’s starting QB after J.T. O’Sullivan’s int. total rose to 11. Too bad Kurt Warner (70%, 16 TDs, 6 ints.) is sizzling, Richmond rookie RB Tim Hightower (7 TDR TY; 109 YR last week) is a new force, and Cards 3-0 vs. the number at
home TY. CABLE TV—ESPN
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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10
*ARIZONA 35 - San Francisco 20—Second contest for new S.F. coach Mike Singletary, who—in just his first game—ejected one of his own players, went “Bob Knight” at halftime to show the 49ers how they were playing, then had a future Coors Light tirade after the game! At least he’s entertaining. He’s since apologized, and he’s named Shaun Hill (2-0 as a starter LY in Games 14 & 15) S.F.’s starting QB after J.T. O’Sullivan’s int. total rose to 11. Too bad Kurt Warner (70%, 16 TDs, 6 ints.) is sizzling, Richmond rookie RB Tim Hightower (7 TDR TY; 109 YR last week) is a new force, and Cards 3-0 vs. the number at
home TY. CABLE TV—ESPN
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Nelly's
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2008
ARIZONA (-10) San Francisco (46) 7:35 PM
Although the Cardinals have certainly delivered worse collapses in
franchise history it is tough to envision Arizona losing its grip on the
NFC West. Always plagued on the road, the Cardinals have played
well the past two weeks away from home and Arizona is 3-0 at
home this season, S/U and ATS, scoring at least 30 points in each
of those games. San Francisco is rested but the problems on the
team are many. QB Hill could provide a quick fix to keep this division
game close however. CARDINALS BY 7<!-- / message -->
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2008
ARIZONA (-10) San Francisco (46) 7:35 PM
Although the Cardinals have certainly delivered worse collapses in
franchise history it is tough to envision Arizona losing its grip on the
NFC West. Always plagued on the road, the Cardinals have played
well the past two weeks away from home and Arizona is 3-0 at
home this season, S/U and ATS, scoring at least 30 points in each
of those games. San Francisco is rested but the problems on the
team are many. QB Hill could provide a quick fix to keep this division
game close however. CARDINALS BY 7<!-- / message -->
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers Nov 10 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: New York Rangers
Reason: The Oilers have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Edmonton is 3-6 in their last 9 road games. The Oilers played last night and beat the Devils but tonight they'll face a tougher opponent in the Rangers. New York will be the better rested team in this one. The Rangers are off to a very solid 11-5-1 start to the season. New York has won 8 of their last 11 home games. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games hosting the Edmonton Oilers. Play on the New York Rangers -.
Game: Edmonton Oilers at New York Rangers Nov 10 2008 7:05PM
Prediction: New York Rangers
Reason: The Oilers have lost 7 of their last 10 games. Edmonton is 3-6 in their last 9 road games. The Oilers played last night and beat the Devils but tonight they'll face a tougher opponent in the Rangers. New York will be the better rested team in this one. The Rangers are off to a very solid 11-5-1 start to the season. New York has won 8 of their last 11 home games. The Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 games hosting the Edmonton Oilers. Play on the New York Rangers -.
Tom Freese
Tampa Bay at Washington (7:05pm)
Washington is 12-3 OVER off two or more straight home wins. The Capitals are 5-0 OVER on Monday and they are 6-2 OVER their last 8 games in the Nations Capital. Tampa Bay is 14-4 OVER their last 18 November road games and they are 12-3 OVER after winning four or five of their last six games. The Lightning are 5-2 OVER on Monday. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Tampa Bay at Washington (7:05pm)
Washington is 12-3 OVER off two or more straight home wins. The Capitals are 5-0 OVER on Monday and they are 6-2 OVER their last 8 games in the Nations Capital. Tampa Bay is 14-4 OVER their last 18 November road games and they are 12-3 OVER after winning four or five of their last six games. The Lightning are 5-2 OVER on Monday. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Jim Feist
The Nets are just 1-2 on the road. New Jersey Nets guard Devin Harris was held out of Saturday night's game against the Pacers with a sprained left ankle. Harris scored a career-high 38 points in New Jersey's win over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night. He ranks second on the team with 18.8 points per game and is a key cog, as we saw as the Nets lost Saturday, 98-80. Miami has been soft on the road, but really plays well at home (2-0). Unlike last season, they are healthy with plenty of offensive firepower with Wade and rookie Beasely. They are averaging close to 100 ppg and match up well against this ailing NJ team. Play the Miami Heat.
The Nets are just 1-2 on the road. New Jersey Nets guard Devin Harris was held out of Saturday night's game against the Pacers with a sprained left ankle. Harris scored a career-high 38 points in New Jersey's win over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night. He ranks second on the team with 18.8 points per game and is a key cog, as we saw as the Nets lost Saturday, 98-80. Miami has been soft on the road, but really plays well at home (2-0). Unlike last season, they are healthy with plenty of offensive firepower with Wade and rookie Beasely. They are averaging close to 100 ppg and match up well against this ailing NJ team. Play the Miami Heat.
Wunderdog Horses
PHILADELPHIA PARK Race #3 at 1:10 PM Eastern
PHILADELPHIA PARK Race #3 at 1:10 PM Eastern
Top pick: #5 (SUNSHINE COFFEE) - Sharp last out in his maiden win and first start for trainer Bill Hedus. Broke running and easily went wire-to-wire. Eligible for more improvement and he draws outside of the other speed.
<!--p-->2nd pick: #3 (Any Which Way) - Nice race on October 5, returning from a seven-month layoff. Dropped into a claimer that day for the first time, he was involved in a pace duel thru swift fractions and although beaten, he held down the place. He's had over a month to recover and need only repeat it to be a win factor.
3rd pick: #1 (Obscurity) - Tough call. He hasn't shown anything since his maiden win in June. Drops to a career low and draws the rail. If he has anything left, he'll show it today.
4th pick: #2 (Alyjen's Speed) - Ran a big race two back at this price tag, just missing. Tired last out against better going longer. Drops and shortens up today.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
San Francisco (2-6 SU and ATS) at Arizona (5-3, 5-2-1 ATS)
The 49ers look to snap a five-game SU and ATS losing skid when they travel to Glendale, Ariz., to take on the Cardinals, who haven’t lost in the desert this season and are trying to sweep this season series.
The first game for interim coach Mike Singletary did not go well as San Francisco lost 34-13 to Seattle as a five-point home favorite, sending the team into its bye week with a fifth straight setback. Singletary, who blasted his team in a postgame news conference, has benched starting QB J.T. O’Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill, who went 15-for-23 for 173 yards and a TD in relief work against Seattle.
Arizona blew out St. Louis last week 34-13 as a three-point road chalk, improving to 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in its last four overall. The Cardinals had a 450-231 yard edge in total offense and forced three turnovers as they scored 30-plus points for the fourth time in the last five games. Arizona leads the NFL in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game, and that increases to 34 ppg at home, where the Cardinals have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and nine of 11 since Ken Whisenhunt took over as head coach last season.
Unlike the 49ers, Arizona has no quarterback issues, as Kurt Warner has turned back the clock, throwing for 2,431 yards this season with 16 TDs and six INTs.
Arizona went to San Francisco in the season opener and got a 23-13 win as a one-point favorite, with Warner throwing for 197 yards. Last year, the 49ers were one of only two teams to win at Arizona, prevailing 37-31 in overtime as a 10-point ‘dog. San Francisco is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) in its last four trips to the desert dating to 2004. Also, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the past nine series battles (4-1 ATS in the last five).
San Francisco is 16-14 SU (19-11 ATS) on the road on Monday nights, while Arizona is 3-6-1 SU (4-6 ATS) in this prime-time showcase under the lights.
San Francisco carries nothing but negative ATS trends into this game, including 2-8 on the road, 2-5 against NFC West rivals, 1-6 against teams with a winning record and 0-4 against NFC teams. Conversely, in addition to their current 4-0 ATS roll overall and 4-0 ATS run at home, the Cardinals are pointspread upticks of 8-3 against NFC West teams and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
For the Niners, the under is on runs of 7-1 in November and 10-4 against the NFC West, but the over is 4-1 in their last five following a non-cover. Arizona is on several over runs, including 22-8 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-4 after a spread-cover, 8-3 against the NFC West and 25-8 against teams with a losing record. In this rivalry, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Arizona.
Finally, the over is 8-1-1 in Monday night contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
NBA
Portland (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Orlando (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
The Magic will try to make it five straight wins when they host the Blazers in Orlando.
After losing two games to start the season, Orlando has rattled off four wins in a row (3-1 ATS), all at home. The Magic crushed Washington 106-81 as a 9½-point favorite Saturday with Dwight Howard leading the charge with 31 points and 16 rebounds.
Portland has won two in a row (1-1 ATS) after losing three of four (1-3 ATS) to begin the season. The Blazers got a combined 48 points from Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge in Saturday’s 97-93 victory over Minnesota, but they failed to cash as eight-point favorites. They are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, averaging five points per game less (89.3) on the road than at home (94.3).
Orlando has won the last four meetings with the Blazers (3-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (5-1-1 ATS). The Blazers haven’t won in Orlando since 2004, going 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three visits to central Florida. Last year the Magic got a 101-94 home win as 5½-point favorites and prevailed 85-74 in Portland as a five-point chalk. The straight-up winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 3-8 after a straight-up win and 7-19 on Mondays. Orlando is on ATS streaks of 17-8-2 at home, 7-3 against the Northwest Division and 20-7-2 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Portland has topped the total in four of its last five games, but otherwise the under for the Blazers is on streaks of 8-2 on the road, 4-1 when playing with a day of rest and 10-1 after a straight-up win. The Magic have gone over the posted number in seven of their last 10 Monday games, but the team’s under streaks include 20-7 overall, 19-7 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against the Western Conference and 5-1 at home. In head-to-head meetings, the under is 9-3-1 in the last 13.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Toronto (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Boston (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)
The Celtics shoot for their fifth straight victory when they host the Raptors inside the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
Boston has won four straight (3-1 ATS) and six of seven to start the season and the defending champs are a perfect 3-0 in front of the home fans (but 1-2 ATS). On Sunday, the Celtics went to Detroit and throttled the Pistons 88-76, allowing just 29 first-half points in cashing as one-point road ‘dogs. The defense has been the key for Boston at home, limiting the opposition to 84.7 ppg and 37-percent shooting from the field, including 28.9 percent from beyond the 3-point line.
Toronto snapped a two-game losing streak with an 89-79 win in Charlotte on Sunday as a 4½-point favorite. The Raptors are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year, but dating back to last season they are just they have failed to cash in 12 of their last 16 on the highway.
Boston has won four of the last five meetings (SU and ATS) with the Raptors, but lost the most recent battle at home, 114-112 as an 8½-point favorite in January. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10.
Toronto is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight overall and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 on the road against squads with a winning home record. Boston is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS in its last five Monday games, but otherwise the Celtics are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 11-3 overall, 16-7 at home, 20-6-2 against teams from the Atlantic Division and 19-7-1 when playing on back-to-back nights.
For the Raptors, the under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 overall, 28-9 in their last 37 Monday games, 8-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and 12-4-1 in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Boston has stayed under the total in five of its first seven games this season, 19 of its last 26 on Monday and six of its last seven on the second night of a back-to-back. Lastly, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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San Francisco (2-6 SU and ATS) at Arizona (5-3, 5-2-1 ATS)
The 49ers look to snap a five-game SU and ATS losing skid when they travel to Glendale, Ariz., to take on the Cardinals, who haven’t lost in the desert this season and are trying to sweep this season series.
The first game for interim coach Mike Singletary did not go well as San Francisco lost 34-13 to Seattle as a five-point home favorite, sending the team into its bye week with a fifth straight setback. Singletary, who blasted his team in a postgame news conference, has benched starting QB J.T. O’Sullivan in favor of Shaun Hill, who went 15-for-23 for 173 yards and a TD in relief work against Seattle.
Arizona blew out St. Louis last week 34-13 as a three-point road chalk, improving to 3-1 SU (4-0 ATS) in its last four overall. The Cardinals had a 450-231 yard edge in total offense and forced three turnovers as they scored 30-plus points for the fourth time in the last five games. Arizona leads the NFL in scoring offense at 29.3 points per game, and that increases to 34 ppg at home, where the Cardinals have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and nine of 11 since Ken Whisenhunt took over as head coach last season.
Unlike the 49ers, Arizona has no quarterback issues, as Kurt Warner has turned back the clock, throwing for 2,431 yards this season with 16 TDs and six INTs.
Arizona went to San Francisco in the season opener and got a 23-13 win as a one-point favorite, with Warner throwing for 197 yards. Last year, the 49ers were one of only two teams to win at Arizona, prevailing 37-31 in overtime as a 10-point ‘dog. San Francisco is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) in its last four trips to the desert dating to 2004. Also, the underdog is 6-3 ATS in the past nine series battles (4-1 ATS in the last five).
San Francisco is 16-14 SU (19-11 ATS) on the road on Monday nights, while Arizona is 3-6-1 SU (4-6 ATS) in this prime-time showcase under the lights.
San Francisco carries nothing but negative ATS trends into this game, including 2-8 on the road, 2-5 against NFC West rivals, 1-6 against teams with a winning record and 0-4 against NFC teams. Conversely, in addition to their current 4-0 ATS roll overall and 4-0 ATS run at home, the Cardinals are pointspread upticks of 8-3 against NFC West teams and 4-1 after a straight-up win.
For the Niners, the under is on runs of 7-1 in November and 10-4 against the NFC West, but the over is 4-1 in their last five following a non-cover. Arizona is on several over runs, including 22-8 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-4 after a spread-cover, 8-3 against the NFC West and 25-8 against teams with a losing record. In this rivalry, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-0 in the last four clashes in Arizona.
Finally, the over is 8-1-1 in Monday night contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER
NBA
Portland (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) at Orlando (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)
The Magic will try to make it five straight wins when they host the Blazers in Orlando.
After losing two games to start the season, Orlando has rattled off four wins in a row (3-1 ATS), all at home. The Magic crushed Washington 106-81 as a 9½-point favorite Saturday with Dwight Howard leading the charge with 31 points and 16 rebounds.
Portland has won two in a row (1-1 ATS) after losing three of four (1-3 ATS) to begin the season. The Blazers got a combined 48 points from Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge in Saturday’s 97-93 victory over Minnesota, but they failed to cash as eight-point favorites. They are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this season, averaging five points per game less (89.3) on the road than at home (94.3).
Orlando has won the last four meetings with the Blazers (3-1 ATS) and six of the last seven (5-1-1 ATS). The Blazers haven’t won in Orlando since 2004, going 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three visits to central Florida. Last year the Magic got a 101-94 home win as 5½-point favorites and prevailed 85-74 in Portland as a five-point chalk. The straight-up winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover but otherwise they are on ATS slides of 1-4 on the road, 3-8 after a straight-up win and 7-19 on Mondays. Orlando is on ATS streaks of 17-8-2 at home, 7-3 against the Northwest Division and 20-7-2 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Portland has topped the total in four of its last five games, but otherwise the under for the Blazers is on streaks of 8-2 on the road, 4-1 when playing with a day of rest and 10-1 after a straight-up win. The Magic have gone over the posted number in seven of their last 10 Monday games, but the team’s under streaks include 20-7 overall, 19-7 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against the Western Conference and 5-1 at home. In head-to-head meetings, the under is 9-3-1 in the last 13.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Toronto (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) at Boston (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)
The Celtics shoot for their fifth straight victory when they host the Raptors inside the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
Boston has won four straight (3-1 ATS) and six of seven to start the season and the defending champs are a perfect 3-0 in front of the home fans (but 1-2 ATS). On Sunday, the Celtics went to Detroit and throttled the Pistons 88-76, allowing just 29 first-half points in cashing as one-point road ‘dogs. The defense has been the key for Boston at home, limiting the opposition to 84.7 ppg and 37-percent shooting from the field, including 28.9 percent from beyond the 3-point line.
Toronto snapped a two-game losing streak with an 89-79 win in Charlotte on Sunday as a 4½-point favorite. The Raptors are 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year, but dating back to last season they are just they have failed to cash in 12 of their last 16 on the highway.
Boston has won four of the last five meetings (SU and ATS) with the Raptors, but lost the most recent battle at home, 114-112 as an 8½-point favorite in January. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS in those 10.
Toronto is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight overall and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 on the road against squads with a winning home record. Boston is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against the Eastern Conference and 1-4 ATS in its last five Monday games, but otherwise the Celtics are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 11-3 overall, 16-7 at home, 20-6-2 against teams from the Atlantic Division and 19-7-1 when playing on back-to-back nights.
For the Raptors, the under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 overall, 28-9 in their last 37 Monday games, 8-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and 12-4-1 in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, Boston has stayed under the total in five of its first seven games this season, 19 of its last 26 on Monday and six of its last seven on the second night of a back-to-back. Lastly, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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Monday Football
Take Arizona (-9.5) over San Francisco
(10* Top Play)
8:30 PM EST
San Francisco has lost 5 consecutive games and they have also lost 6 consecutive games against the spread coming off a home loss by 21 points or more. San Francisco has lost 12 of the last 15 games as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.
Monday Football
Take Arizona (-9.5) over San Francisco
(10* Top Play)
8:30 PM EST
San Francisco has lost 5 consecutive games and they have also lost 6 consecutive games against the spread coming off a home loss by 21 points or more. San Francisco has lost 12 of the last 15 games as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.
