SPORTS ADVISORS
Indianapolis (3-3 SU and ATS) at Tennessee (6-0 SU and ATS)
The Titans, who are off to their best start in franchise history, will try to remain the NFL’s only unbeaten team when they host the defending AFC South champion Colts at LP Field in Nashville.
Tennessee rolled to a 34-10 victory at Kansas City last week, extending its winning streak to nine (8-1 ATS) dating back to last season – the team’s longest such streak since winning 11 in a row in 1993 when the franchise was still in Houston. The Titans rolled up 455 total yards against the Chiefs, including 332 on the ground thanks to Chris Johnson (18 carries, 168 yards, 1 TD) and LenDale White (17 carries, 149 yards, 3 TDs).
The Titans have the NFL’s stingiest defense, allowing just 66 points through six games, and they rank third in the league in total defense, giving up just 268.5 yards per contest (179 through the air and 89.5 on the ground).
Indianapolis went to Green Bay last week and fell 34-14 as a one-point favorite, with All-Pro QB Peyton Manning finishing with a 46.6 passer rating as he went 21-for-42 for 229 yards and two INTs, both of which were returned for touchdowns. The Colts’ defense has been inconsistent this season, giving up 329 yards per game, including a whopping 153.7 on the ground.
These division rivals split last year’s meetings, with the visitor winning both contests and Tennessee going 2-0 ATS. In fact, the Titans have cashed in the last four battles with Indy after going 0-6 ATS in the previous six. Tony Dungy’s Colts have won eight of the last 10 meetings SU, going 4-1 SU in the last five trips to Nashville.
The Colts are 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS on the road in Monday Night Football, while Tennessee is 11-8 SU and 9-9-1 ATS at home on Mondays.
Indianapolis is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games against AFC South rivals, but otherwise the Colts are on ATS streaks of 7-1 in October, 5-0 on Mondays and 5-2 following a non-cover. Jeff Fischer’s Titans are on ATS runs of 10-1 against the AFC South, 5-0 after a spread-cover, 6-0 after a straight-up win and 7-2 the last nine years in Week 8.
For the Colts, the over is 4-1 in their last five against AFC South competition and 5-2 in their last seven after a non-cover. For Tennessee, the over is on runs of 21-10-1 in October and 6-1 in Week 8, but the under is 6-2 in its last eight against the AFC. Also, the last six meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total.
Finally, the over is 8-0-1 in Monday night games this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
WORLD SERIES
Tampa Bay (8-7) at Philadelphia (10-3)
With the chance to secure the club’s first world championship in 28 years, the Phillies send ace Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09 ERA) to the mound for Game 5 of the World Series at Citizens Bank Park. Meanwhile, needing a win to save their season, the Rays will turn to Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) in a pitching rematch of Game 1.
After a 10-2 win on Sunday, the Phillies hold a commanding 3-1 lead in this best-of-7 series. Philadelphia has yet to lose in six postseason home games, and Hamels has won three of those six and he’s 4-0 with a 1.55 ERA in four starts this month. In Sunday’s blowout win, Phillies’ slugger Ryan Howard belted two homers and drove in five runs, while Joe Blanton pitched six strong innings and hit a solo homer.
The Phillies are 24-6 in their last 30 at Citizen Bank Park, and they’re on additional hot streaks of 38-16 overall, 21-7 against winning teams and 9-3 with Hamels on the hill. However, Charlie Manuel’s club is still only 20-37 in its last 57 interleague games.
The Rays are still on runs of 6-4 in interleague play, 8-4 against the N.L. East and 5-3 in National League ballparks. Also, despite being down 3-1 in this series, Tampa Bay has still won nine of the last 14 meetings with Philadelphia. The Rays won seven of Kazmir’s last 10 starts in the regular season and have split his four outings in the postseason.
In Game 1 of this series, Kazmir gave up three runs on six hits in six innings, including a two-run, first-inning homer to Chase Utley to take the 3-2 loss. His lone October road start came in Game 5 in Boston during the ALCS when he blanked the Red Sox on two hits for six innings but the bullpen collapsed and the Rays lost, 8-7. Tampa Bay is 21-9 in Kazmir’s last 30 starts overall.
Hamels was the winner in Game 1 as he gave up two runs on five hits in seven innings in getting the win. He has pitched at least seven innings in all four of his postseason starts, holding the opposition to two runs or less in each outing.
With Hamels on the mound, the under is on runs of 6-0 overall, but the over is 5-2 in his last seven interleague outings. For Kazmir, the over is 7-2 in his last nine trips to the hill
The under is 7-4-3 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings between these teams, including 2-1-1 in this series. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-1-1 for the Rays overall, 8-4-1 for the Phillies overall, 9-4-1 for the Phillies in the playoffs and 9-3-1 for the Phillies in interleague play. Conversely, the over is 9-3-1 in Tampa’s last 13 road games and 26-8-2 in its last 36 in N.L. parks.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER
