Welcome to Ecks & Bacon for Monday, January 12, 2015 (Chalk/Benjamin Lee Eckstein)
Oregon -6
Here's my dilemma. When we picked all the bowl games in the N.Y. Daily News back on December 18, my selection in the Rose Bowl was Oregon. Then, the All-American CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu was hurt and we switched to a light play on Florida State. Yup, I was a dope. Not this time. Even though the Ducks lost one of their key weapons, WR Darren Carrington, for reportedly failing a drug test, as far as we know, Marcus Mariota is still playing. And at -6, Oregon is my side. First some numbers. The Ducks completed the season with a 13-1 record, including the Rose Bowl win, with a 6-1 mark at home, and a perfect 7-0 record on the road. In seven roadies, Oregon scored 347 points and allowed 181, which is a +166 point advantage over the opposition, or an average of 23.7 points per game. The Quack attack posted a 10-3 record against the spread, 10-3 as a favorite and 6-1 on the road. They also come in on a 9-0 spread run.
Ohio State also comes in with a 13-1 straight up record, 6-1 at home and a perfect 7-0 on the road. On the road, the Buckeyes scored 298 points and allowed 161, for a +137 point advantage over the opposition, or an average of 19.5 points per game. The Bucks posted a 9-5 record against the spread, 3-0 as an underdog and 5-2 on the road. With all due respect to Joel Stave of Wisconsin and Blake Sims of Alabama, Ohio State has NEVER seen a kid like Mariota. The Heisman Trophy winner is only 36-4 in three years at Eugene, with 755 completions and only, ONLY 13 INT's. CRAZY huh. Over 10,000 passing yards, over 2,000 rushing yards, Mariota CAN NOT be stopped. Nothing against Cardale Jones, who has started a grand total of TWO games, but this is the BIGGEST QB MISMATCH in years. Gimme a full Benjamin on the Ducks. QUACK, QUACK!!!
Oregon -6
Here's my dilemma. When we picked all the bowl games in the N.Y. Daily News back on December 18, my selection in the Rose Bowl was Oregon. Then, the All-American CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu was hurt and we switched to a light play on Florida State. Yup, I was a dope. Not this time. Even though the Ducks lost one of their key weapons, WR Darren Carrington, for reportedly failing a drug test, as far as we know, Marcus Mariota is still playing. And at -6, Oregon is my side. First some numbers. The Ducks completed the season with a 13-1 record, including the Rose Bowl win, with a 6-1 mark at home, and a perfect 7-0 record on the road. In seven roadies, Oregon scored 347 points and allowed 181, which is a +166 point advantage over the opposition, or an average of 23.7 points per game. The Quack attack posted a 10-3 record against the spread, 10-3 as a favorite and 6-1 on the road. They also come in on a 9-0 spread run.
Ohio State also comes in with a 13-1 straight up record, 6-1 at home and a perfect 7-0 on the road. On the road, the Buckeyes scored 298 points and allowed 161, for a +137 point advantage over the opposition, or an average of 19.5 points per game. The Bucks posted a 9-5 record against the spread, 3-0 as an underdog and 5-2 on the road. With all due respect to Joel Stave of Wisconsin and Blake Sims of Alabama, Ohio State has NEVER seen a kid like Mariota. The Heisman Trophy winner is only 36-4 in three years at Eugene, with 755 completions and only, ONLY 13 INT's. CRAZY huh. Over 10,000 passing yards, over 2,000 rushing yards, Mariota CAN NOT be stopped. Nothing against Cardale Jones, who has started a grand total of TWO games, but this is the BIGGEST QB MISMATCH in years. Gimme a full Benjamin on the Ducks. QUACK, QUACK!!!
Sportswagers
Colorado @ WASHINGTON
Colorado +153 over WASHINGTON
OT included. We've written about our belief that Washington's star is falling and we aren't aborting our plan to fade the Caps over the next few games or until they show us something different. Washington has been hot as a firecracker since the beginning of December but they cannot maintain that high intensity or winning ways with numbers that suggest a serious regression is forthcoming. The Caps have been outshot in six straight and have had a serious disadvantage in time spent in the opposition’s end over that span. Washington is actually playing worse right now than when they were losing games but the results don’t show that. Against Detroit on Saturday, the Caps mustered just 17 shots on net and won 3-1. At one point in the third period, the blocked shots were in favor of Washington by a count of 14-0. In other words, the Caps were running around in their own end and diving in front of shots because the Wings pressure was so great. That’s not unique for this team and while we acknowledge Washington’s improvement under Barry Trotz, the improvement is not as dramatic as the results suggest. Truth be told, Washington rarely outplays the opposition. They are just as likely to lose as many games as they win in the second half. We also love the situation. The Caps are coming off big games against Detroit, Philly, Toronto, Florida, Chicago, the Islanders, Pittsburgh and the Rangers. That’s a string of games against a lot of rivals and Eastern opponents. The game against Chicago was the Winter Classic. They’ll now face a team they rarely see that has been to the Verizon Center just one time since 2010. A drop off in intensity is almost inevitable here for the Caps and with the Flyers on deck, we trust we’ll catch the Caps not at their best in this one.
Meanwhile, the Avalanche have quietly caught fire. The Avs have won three in a row and eight of their past 11. They have recent wins over Dallas, Chicago, Detroit and St. Louis among others. Colorado is just four points behind the Jets for the final playoff spot so they are right back in the thick of things. There are things the Avs have to clean up, specifically on defense but they are scoring goals right now and Semyon Varlamov is playing outstanding. This is a crucial stretch for the Avs too, as they embark on a five-game trip that is either going to keep them in the race or put them in a hole. The first game of a trip this crucial is often the best for teams, as they attempt to set the tone. We trust the Avs will be the more focused and fired up team in this one. When we can tag back a tag like this with a Western team in a good spot against an overvalued East club, we’re going to step in more often than not and make no exception in this one. Great value on a very live dog here.
Our Pick
Colorado +153 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.06)
Toronto @ LOS ANGELES
Toronto +162 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. We simply cannot ignore what the scoreboard and the under the surface stats are telling us. Los Angeles has two Stanley Cups in the past three years and when you are playing well into late June after starting in September, a burnout or hangover will take place. L.A is not playing good hockey and of all of the 30 teams, they probably need this upcoming All-Star break more than any of them. The Kings have allowed 19 goals against over the past three games. L.A. ranks 26th in giveaways out of 30 teams, which puts them behind the Leafs in that regard and ahead of only Edmonton, San Jose and Dallas. The suspension of Slava Voynov hurt this team in a big way defensively and now they lost Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli. Furthermore, as great as Jonathan Quick has been in the past, he’s been extremely erratic all year and that might be the biggest understatement of the day. Quick has posted save percentages of .840, .846, .667, .875, .867, .857, .882 and .857 in eight of his past 10 games. No goaltender in the NHL has been worse over that stretch and while we could ignore one or two bad games, we cannot ignore a long string of them.
Perhaps we were a bit premature in suggesting a coaching change for Toronto would accomplish nothing because its defense is so bad. Perhaps it wasn’t Toronto’s poor defense that was causing misery but more a case of lazy forwards not helping out. It’s been just two games but Toronto’s defensive play has improved dramatically under the guidance of Peter Horachek. In Horacek’s first two games behind the bench, Toronto outshot both Washington and Columbus by counts of 33-26 and 32-20. 46 shots against in two successive games is the best two-game stretch in two years by the Maple Leafs. The Leafs have been off since Friday so they had all weekend and lots of practice time with their new coach to implement his “new” strategy even more. We all know the Maple Leafs can score and we all know they have outstanding goaltending with Jonathan Bernier in net. Put it all together and one must give the Leafs a puncher’s chance of coming in here and leaving with an unexpected victory. The huge goaltending advantage according to current form seals the deal.
Our Pick
Toronto +162 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.24)
Colorado @ WASHINGTON
Colorado +153 over WASHINGTON
OT included. We've written about our belief that Washington's star is falling and we aren't aborting our plan to fade the Caps over the next few games or until they show us something different. Washington has been hot as a firecracker since the beginning of December but they cannot maintain that high intensity or winning ways with numbers that suggest a serious regression is forthcoming. The Caps have been outshot in six straight and have had a serious disadvantage in time spent in the opposition’s end over that span. Washington is actually playing worse right now than when they were losing games but the results don’t show that. Against Detroit on Saturday, the Caps mustered just 17 shots on net and won 3-1. At one point in the third period, the blocked shots were in favor of Washington by a count of 14-0. In other words, the Caps were running around in their own end and diving in front of shots because the Wings pressure was so great. That’s not unique for this team and while we acknowledge Washington’s improvement under Barry Trotz, the improvement is not as dramatic as the results suggest. Truth be told, Washington rarely outplays the opposition. They are just as likely to lose as many games as they win in the second half. We also love the situation. The Caps are coming off big games against Detroit, Philly, Toronto, Florida, Chicago, the Islanders, Pittsburgh and the Rangers. That’s a string of games against a lot of rivals and Eastern opponents. The game against Chicago was the Winter Classic. They’ll now face a team they rarely see that has been to the Verizon Center just one time since 2010. A drop off in intensity is almost inevitable here for the Caps and with the Flyers on deck, we trust we’ll catch the Caps not at their best in this one.
Meanwhile, the Avalanche have quietly caught fire. The Avs have won three in a row and eight of their past 11. They have recent wins over Dallas, Chicago, Detroit and St. Louis among others. Colorado is just four points behind the Jets for the final playoff spot so they are right back in the thick of things. There are things the Avs have to clean up, specifically on defense but they are scoring goals right now and Semyon Varlamov is playing outstanding. This is a crucial stretch for the Avs too, as they embark on a five-game trip that is either going to keep them in the race or put them in a hole. The first game of a trip this crucial is often the best for teams, as they attempt to set the tone. We trust the Avs will be the more focused and fired up team in this one. When we can tag back a tag like this with a Western team in a good spot against an overvalued East club, we’re going to step in more often than not and make no exception in this one. Great value on a very live dog here.
Our Pick
Colorado +153 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.06)
Toronto @ LOS ANGELES
Toronto +162 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. We simply cannot ignore what the scoreboard and the under the surface stats are telling us. Los Angeles has two Stanley Cups in the past three years and when you are playing well into late June after starting in September, a burnout or hangover will take place. L.A is not playing good hockey and of all of the 30 teams, they probably need this upcoming All-Star break more than any of them. The Kings have allowed 19 goals against over the past three games. L.A. ranks 26th in giveaways out of 30 teams, which puts them behind the Leafs in that regard and ahead of only Edmonton, San Jose and Dallas. The suspension of Slava Voynov hurt this team in a big way defensively and now they lost Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli. Furthermore, as great as Jonathan Quick has been in the past, he’s been extremely erratic all year and that might be the biggest understatement of the day. Quick has posted save percentages of .840, .846, .667, .875, .867, .857, .882 and .857 in eight of his past 10 games. No goaltender in the NHL has been worse over that stretch and while we could ignore one or two bad games, we cannot ignore a long string of them.
Perhaps we were a bit premature in suggesting a coaching change for Toronto would accomplish nothing because its defense is so bad. Perhaps it wasn’t Toronto’s poor defense that was causing misery but more a case of lazy forwards not helping out. It’s been just two games but Toronto’s defensive play has improved dramatically under the guidance of Peter Horachek. In Horacek’s first two games behind the bench, Toronto outshot both Washington and Columbus by counts of 33-26 and 32-20. 46 shots against in two successive games is the best two-game stretch in two years by the Maple Leafs. The Leafs have been off since Friday so they had all weekend and lots of practice time with their new coach to implement his “new” strategy even more. We all know the Maple Leafs can score and we all know they have outstanding goaltending with Jonathan Bernier in net. Put it all together and one must give the Leafs a puncher’s chance of coming in here and leaving with an unexpected victory. The huge goaltending advantage according to current form seals the deal.
Our Pick
Toronto +162 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.24)
Anthony Redd - 80 Dimes on Oregon
Brad Wilton - 75 Dimes on Oregon
Brandon Lang - 150 Dimes on Ohio State
Craig Davis - 75 Dimes on Ohio State
Trace Adams - 2000* on Oregon
Bryan Rosica - 60 Dimes on Oregon
Jeff Benton - 75 Dimes Over the Total
Scott Delaney - 100 Dimes Under the Total
Al DeMarco - 15 Dimes on Ohio State
Gabriel DuPont - 50 Dimes on Oregon
Matt Rivers - Blank Check on Ohio State
Brad Wilton - 75 Dimes on Oregon
Brandon Lang - 150 Dimes on Ohio State
Craig Davis - 75 Dimes on Ohio State
Trace Adams - 2000* on Oregon
Bryan Rosica - 60 Dimes on Oregon
Jeff Benton - 75 Dimes Over the Total
Scott Delaney - 100 Dimes Under the Total
Al DeMarco - 15 Dimes on Ohio State
Gabriel DuPont - 50 Dimes on Oregon
Matt Rivers - Blank Check on Ohio State
VegasButcher - NBA
Detroit Pistons +6
Same analysis as before with this team. They are the most improved team in the league right now going 8-1 since Josh Smith’s release. Detroit’s only loss was a 3-point game against the East leading Hawks. Toronto finally broke their 4-game slide, coming into this matchup off a win. This is a great offensive team but they rank 22nd in DefEff and 23rd in eFG%-allowed. Detroit can definitely take advantage here with their inside-outside game, as I believe they’re a tough team for the Raptors to guard. I expect a close game here with the Pistons once again having a strong shot at a win
Houston Rockets -6
Brooklyn is now on a 5-game losing streak, having lost to teams like MIA, BOS, and PHI during this run. Their opponent adjusted efficiency differential is -10 during this run, 4th worst in the league. Now they take on a Houston squad that is blowing out mediocre opponents, with an average MOV of over +19 in the last 5 games against teams like CHA, MIA, CLE, NYK, and UTA. Brooklyn is playing on the same level as those squads right now! With trade rumors swirling (DWill and Lopez), coach that seems to be over his head (Hollins), and a roster full of old dudes (KG, Johnson, Jack, DWill), this Brooklyn team isn’t going anywhere fast. My numbers have Houston at -8 here and I’ll back them tonight.
Detroit Pistons +6
Same analysis as before with this team. They are the most improved team in the league right now going 8-1 since Josh Smith’s release. Detroit’s only loss was a 3-point game against the East leading Hawks. Toronto finally broke their 4-game slide, coming into this matchup off a win. This is a great offensive team but they rank 22nd in DefEff and 23rd in eFG%-allowed. Detroit can definitely take advantage here with their inside-outside game, as I believe they’re a tough team for the Raptors to guard. I expect a close game here with the Pistons once again having a strong shot at a win
Houston Rockets -6
Brooklyn is now on a 5-game losing streak, having lost to teams like MIA, BOS, and PHI during this run. Their opponent adjusted efficiency differential is -10 during this run, 4th worst in the league. Now they take on a Houston squad that is blowing out mediocre opponents, with an average MOV of over +19 in the last 5 games against teams like CHA, MIA, CLE, NYK, and UTA. Brooklyn is playing on the same level as those squads right now! With trade rumors swirling (DWill and Lopez), coach that seems to be over his head (Hollins), and a roster full of old dudes (KG, Johnson, Jack, DWill), this Brooklyn team isn’t going anywhere fast. My numbers have Houston at -8 here and I’ll back them tonight.
