Doc
3-Unit Play #505 Take Cleveland/Miami UNDER 186 ½ (7:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
The Cavs are the best in the NBA at defense and the Heat are very good defensively at home as well. The Cavs have been even better than usual lately on the defensive side of the ball and have held their last five opponents under 85 PPG, on average. Only one team during that stretch has scored more than 87 points, and that was at Houston when they have up 93. Miami has played a lot of up-tempo teams lately and we think that is why we are getting a nice line tonight. We thought this one would be close to 180. The under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Miami and 12-5 in the last 17 meetings overall. Five of the last seven games for Cleveland have gone under and you have to look at the under in every game when this team is in a defensive zone like this.
4-Unit Play #507 Take Dallas -6 Over Oklahoma City (8 p.m. EST, Monday)
With two starters, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, out we think it is going to be real hard for this OKC team to compete tonight. This team has been great ATS and we were all over them as big dogs in Dallas last week but this team is just not deep enough to weather the loss of two starters. Dallas has won four of their last five while the Thunder have dropped seven of their last eight. This team plays tough and never gives up but they need all their soldiers in there to cover a slim line like this and we just don’t see it happening. We see this line as closer to 9, and an extra bonus is that we are under a key number of seven. Seven is the number where teams that are behind usually stop fouling at the end of the game (2+ possessions).
3-Unit Play #510 Take LA Clippers +8 Over San Antonio (10:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
If Zach Randolph was assured to play in this game this might qualify as a Game of the Week. It is uncertain if he will since he has a family tragedy to deal with. But we think the Clippers will probably be a team that will hold value during the stretch run of the season. This group of players has talent and this has been the classic underachiever story. But these players likely want out of LA and they will probably try and play to their potential down the stretch since I think the bad record for this team has made a lot of the players look real bad. The Spurs have been really struggling on offense lately and this one has a real low total, meaning the points become even more valuable (in a low scoring game). The Clippers have covered four of the last six meetings, and have lost the last two in LA by three and six, respectively.
3-Unit Play #505 Take Cleveland/Miami UNDER 186 ½ (7:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
The Cavs are the best in the NBA at defense and the Heat are very good defensively at home as well. The Cavs have been even better than usual lately on the defensive side of the ball and have held their last five opponents under 85 PPG, on average. Only one team during that stretch has scored more than 87 points, and that was at Houston when they have up 93. Miami has played a lot of up-tempo teams lately and we think that is why we are getting a nice line tonight. We thought this one would be close to 180. The under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Miami and 12-5 in the last 17 meetings overall. Five of the last seven games for Cleveland have gone under and you have to look at the under in every game when this team is in a defensive zone like this.
4-Unit Play #507 Take Dallas -6 Over Oklahoma City (8 p.m. EST, Monday)
With two starters, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green, out we think it is going to be real hard for this OKC team to compete tonight. This team has been great ATS and we were all over them as big dogs in Dallas last week but this team is just not deep enough to weather the loss of two starters. Dallas has won four of their last five while the Thunder have dropped seven of their last eight. This team plays tough and never gives up but they need all their soldiers in there to cover a slim line like this and we just don’t see it happening. We see this line as closer to 9, and an extra bonus is that we are under a key number of seven. Seven is the number where teams that are behind usually stop fouling at the end of the game (2+ possessions).
3-Unit Play #510 Take LA Clippers +8 Over San Antonio (10:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
If Zach Randolph was assured to play in this game this might qualify as a Game of the Week. It is uncertain if he will since he has a family tragedy to deal with. But we think the Clippers will probably be a team that will hold value during the stretch run of the season. This group of players has talent and this has been the classic underachiever story. But these players likely want out of LA and they will probably try and play to their potential down the stretch since I think the bad record for this team has made a lot of the players look real bad. The Spurs have been really struggling on offense lately and this one has a real low total, meaning the points become even more valuable (in a low scoring game). The Clippers have covered four of the last six meetings, and have lost the last two in LA by three and six, respectively.
NSA's Selection
CBB Villanova @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM EST 20* OVER 156.5
CBB Baylor @ Texas 9:00 PM EST 10* Texas -7.5
CBB Boise St @ New Mexico St 9:00 PM EST 10* New Mexico St -6.5
NBA New Orleans @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST 10* 76ers -2.5
NBA Dallas @ Oklahoma City 8:05 PM EST 10* OVER 202
NBA Cleveland @ Miami 7:35 PM EST 10* Cleveland -2.5
CBB Villanova @ Notre Dame 7:00 PM EST 20* OVER 156.5
CBB Baylor @ Texas 9:00 PM EST 10* Texas -7.5
CBB Boise St @ New Mexico St 9:00 PM EST 10* New Mexico St -6.5
NBA New Orleans @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM EST 10* 76ers -2.5
NBA Dallas @ Oklahoma City 8:05 PM EST 10* OVER 202
NBA Cleveland @ Miami 7:35 PM EST 10* Cleveland -2.5
John Ryan - NHL (free pick)
Money Line: -119 Colorado Avalanche
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado as they travel to face the NY Islanders slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-15 making 23.7 units since 2003. Play on road teams against the money line after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal losing team posting a win percentage of 40% to 49% playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 50-17 making 27.9 units since 1996. Play on road favorites against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season in the second half of the season. Islanders are not in a good position for this game noting they are just 5-18 against the money line (-11.5 Units) against horrible power play killing teams with the opposition scoring on >19% of chances this season. Take Colorado.
Money Line: -119 Colorado Avalanche
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Colorado as they travel to face the NY Islanders slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-15 making 23.7 units since 2003. Play on road teams against the money line after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal losing team posting a win percentage of 40% to 49% playing a losing team in the second half of the season. Here is a second system that has gone 50-17 making 27.9 units since 1996. Play on road favorites against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season in the second half of the season. Islanders are not in a good position for this game noting they are just 5-18 against the money line (-11.5 Units) against horrible power play killing teams with the opposition scoring on >19% of chances this season. Take Colorado.
