VegasButcher
UNDER 4 STL/MIL (1st 5 Innings ONLY) -115
I’ve broken down Fiers’ game recently as he continues to be extremely effective on the mound. His fastball isn’t over-powering but due to his ability to mix up 3 other pitches, his fastball has been his strongest pitch. Well, the Cardinals rank 28th against the pitch. In addition, Cardinals’ power-hitters (Holliday, Peralta, Molina) are right-handed and Fiers’ dominance over righties can’t be overstated. He has a 10.9 K/9 rate, 1.2 BB/9, and 2.3/2.6 FIP/xFIP against righties, which would rank him 7th in the league if he had enough innings to qualify. On the other side we have Lackey, who has dominated Milwaukee in his first start against them on 08/03. Lackey is a fastball/slider pitcher, and the Brewers rank 23rd against the slider, Lackey’s ‘OUT’ pitch. The biggest concern for Milwaukee is that they’re just not hitting well right now. Here is their run total during their current 9-game losing streak: 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2. That’s an average of 2 RPG in the last 9. I think we’ll see another low scoring game, or at least the first 5 innings. Both bullpens are pretty taxed right now so there’s a lot of risk in the later innings. But for the first 5, I expect a low scoring game.
#2: Parlay (cross-sports):
Seattle Mariners -190 ML / Pittsburgh Steelers -300 ML @ +103 combined odds
I don’t like the odds on the Mariners, but I like them to win the game tonight. Going to parlay them with my “Survivor Pick” this week of Pittsburgh Steelers. I’ll have some analysis on the Steelers tomorrow but I love their chances of a win in week 1.
As far as the Mariners are concerned, the big factor here is Ron Washington resigning and quitting on his team. ‘Quit’ is a strong word as there seems to be some personal issues going on, but him walking away still can’t be a good psychological effect on his players. They’re already going through the motions out there waiting for the season to end so now sure how they get themselves motivated to play at a high level tonight. Yes, baseball is for the most part an ‘individual’ game and all of these players care about their stats (crucial for their next contract negotiation), but you still need to have the right focus and approach to be successful. Hard to see these Texas players being at 100% tonight after a surprising announcement like this. Seattle is fighting for the playoffs, and has key advantages in every single key category (starter, BP, offense, defense). I like their chances in this one.
UNDER 4 STL/MIL (1st 5 Innings ONLY) -115
I’ve broken down Fiers’ game recently as he continues to be extremely effective on the mound. His fastball isn’t over-powering but due to his ability to mix up 3 other pitches, his fastball has been his strongest pitch. Well, the Cardinals rank 28th against the pitch. In addition, Cardinals’ power-hitters (Holliday, Peralta, Molina) are right-handed and Fiers’ dominance over righties can’t be overstated. He has a 10.9 K/9 rate, 1.2 BB/9, and 2.3/2.6 FIP/xFIP against righties, which would rank him 7th in the league if he had enough innings to qualify. On the other side we have Lackey, who has dominated Milwaukee in his first start against them on 08/03. Lackey is a fastball/slider pitcher, and the Brewers rank 23rd against the slider, Lackey’s ‘OUT’ pitch. The biggest concern for Milwaukee is that they’re just not hitting well right now. Here is their run total during their current 9-game losing streak: 1, 2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 1, 2, 2. That’s an average of 2 RPG in the last 9. I think we’ll see another low scoring game, or at least the first 5 innings. Both bullpens are pretty taxed right now so there’s a lot of risk in the later innings. But for the first 5, I expect a low scoring game.
#2: Parlay (cross-sports):
Seattle Mariners -190 ML / Pittsburgh Steelers -300 ML @ +103 combined odds
I don’t like the odds on the Mariners, but I like them to win the game tonight. Going to parlay them with my “Survivor Pick” this week of Pittsburgh Steelers. I’ll have some analysis on the Steelers tomorrow but I love their chances of a win in week 1.
As far as the Mariners are concerned, the big factor here is Ron Washington resigning and quitting on his team. ‘Quit’ is a strong word as there seems to be some personal issues going on, but him walking away still can’t be a good psychological effect on his players. They’re already going through the motions out there waiting for the season to end so now sure how they get themselves motivated to play at a high level tonight. Yes, baseball is for the most part an ‘individual’ game and all of these players care about their stats (crucial for their next contract negotiation), but you still need to have the right focus and approach to be successful. Hard to see these Texas players being at 100% tonight after a surprising announcement like this. Seattle is fighting for the playoffs, and has key advantages in every single key category (starter, BP, offense, defense). I like their chances in this one.
LineCatchers
The New York Yankees are still within reach of the final WC spot in the AL and they open up a huge series tonight against the Royals. The Yankees are currently four games behind Detroit for that final spot, each of their remaining 24 games are ‘Must-WIn’ match ups.
Michael Pineda gets the nod for the pinstripes on Friday night and since returning to the Yankee rotation on the 13th August 2014, he has been dominant. The righty is 3-3 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in eight starts this campaign. He has only issued 1 walk in his last 4 outings whilst allowing 2 ER or fewer in all of his starts this year. Pineda has faced the Royals on three occasions in his career, going 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .190 against Pineda at Yankee Stadium.
The Royals send righty James Shields to the mound tonight who will be looking to get his form back having gone 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Shields is 12-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 29 outings this season and has been solid away from Kansas City. The Royals are 12-4 in 16 games that Shields has started on the road this year. However, he has faced the Yankees on a regular basis throughout his career and is just 9-16 4.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
I like the value on the Yankees in this match up, they have a combined .356 BA and .542 slugging percentage against Shields this season. Pineda is a guy who has been unable to stay healthy in his 3 years in the Majors, but when he does get 100% healthy and is able to start 35 games a season, he is a definite CY Young Award candidate. In 214 IP in his career thus far, opponents have just hit .203 against him.
New York Yankees - 118
The New York Yankees are still within reach of the final WC spot in the AL and they open up a huge series tonight against the Royals. The Yankees are currently four games behind Detroit for that final spot, each of their remaining 24 games are ‘Must-WIn’ match ups.
Michael Pineda gets the nod for the pinstripes on Friday night and since returning to the Yankee rotation on the 13th August 2014, he has been dominant. The righty is 3-3 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in eight starts this campaign. He has only issued 1 walk in his last 4 outings whilst allowing 2 ER or fewer in all of his starts this year. Pineda has faced the Royals on three occasions in his career, going 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Opponents are hitting just .190 against Pineda at Yankee Stadium.
The Royals send righty James Shields to the mound tonight who will be looking to get his form back having gone 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Shields is 12-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 29 outings this season and has been solid away from Kansas City. The Royals are 12-4 in 16 games that Shields has started on the road this year. However, he has faced the Yankees on a regular basis throughout his career and is just 9-16 4.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.
I like the value on the Yankees in this match up, they have a combined .356 BA and .542 slugging percentage against Shields this season. Pineda is a guy who has been unable to stay healthy in his 3 years in the Majors, but when he does get 100% healthy and is able to start 35 games a season, he is a definite CY Young Award candidate. In 214 IP in his career thus far, opponents have just hit .203 against him.
New York Yankees - 118
