Service Plays Friday 8/22/14

[Mosi]

Sportswagers

Houston @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND -1½ +114 over Houston

Brad Peacock has been just plain awful over the past month, with a 10.50 ERA in his past four starts. A 21% hr/f rate indicates some bad luck but he's contributed plenty to his own undoing with a BB/K split of 12/14 over his last 18 innings covering four starts. That high hr/f is also the result of a high fly-ball rate and that’s what you often get with fly-ball pitchers. The Indians .731 home OPS ranks 4th in the AL and it shows that they have the firepower to ruffle Peacock's feathers in this outing. We also love the fact that the Astros are coming off a four-game set in New York and while playing the Yankees isn’t what it used to be, playing in New York is still exciting, especially for young teams like the Astros.

Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco has made just six starts this season. Carrasco opened the season in the rotation with disastrous results, allowing 17 runs in 22 innings. He did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his first four starts. A subsequent demotion to the pen straightened him out, where in 26 relief appearances covering 43 innings, Carrasco thrived with 39 K’s, 9 BB and a 2.30 ERA. In two starts since being reinserted into the rotation, Carrasco surrendered five hits and zero runs in 12 innings combined against the Yanks and Baltimore. He didn’t walk a single batter while striking out nine. He also posted an elite 55% groundball rate, an elite 13% swing and miss rate and an elite 14% line-drive rate. Carrasco has nasty stuff and now his confidence at this level has never been higher. Everything points to an easy victory by the Tribe and that’s how we’ll play it.

Our Pick:
CLEVELAND -1½ +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

 

[Mosi]

Sportswagers

N.Y. Mets @ LOS ANGELES
N.Y. Mets +120 over LOS ANGELES

Diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff last season, Jonathan Niese took six weeks off to rest/rehab and then he returned in the second half to put together a career-best run. Niese could be on the same path this year, as he returned from the DL in late July and he’s once again showing signs of getting stronger. Niese has struck out 12 batters over his last two starts, covering 13 innings. Niese’s solid command, strong groundball tilt and consistent history presents potential reward and this year his groundball rate is one of the best in the business at 55%. He’ll now face a Dodgers team that struggles against LHP, with their .683 OPS 12th in the NL.

Forget Niese for a second because this one is more about fading Dan Haren again. We faded him last weekend against Milwaukee and he didn’t make it past three innings after allowing six hits and five runs. It took Haren 74 pitches to get nine outs and he also walked three batters. Had Hyun-Jin Ryu not got injured, Haren would not be in the rotation. The Dodgers were so concerned about his ineffectiveness that they went out and traded for Kevin Correia, a move the Twinkies are still celebrating over. Haren’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 27%/27%/46% is enough to scare away even the biggest optimists. His swing and miss rate has been in decline for three straight years and it’s not getting any better. He’s been tagged for 10 jacks at Dodger Stadium in just 63 frames and as the innings pile up that number is in more danger. Dan Haren has one foot in the gutter and should the Dodger make the playoffs, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. The Dodgers are praying he gives them five innings of decent service tonight but even they know that’s a stretch. Haren has lost it and while anything is possible in one game, he’s a huge risk as the chalk.

Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

-Show League-NFLNHLMLBNBANCAAFNCAABSoccerCFLMMA

Baseball Season 2014

Range	W	L	P	+/- (Units)
Yesterday	2	0	0.00	+4.94
Last 30 Days	40	33	0.00	+31.29
Season to Date	180	195	0.00	+26.12

 

[Mosi]

Montreal @ WINNIPEG
Montreal +7½ -115 /+255 over WINNIPEG

We’re going to split this up and play a half unit on the Alouettes to win outright and 2.5 units on them to cover the number. As bad as the Als have been with just one win in seven games, they’re getting closer and one can just sense that they’re on the verge of a big game and a big win. That probably should’ve happened last week in Saskatchewan when they gave the Riders a big scare as 13-point dogs. That was the game Alex Brink took over from Troy Smith and went 19 for 31 for 187 yards in poor conditions. At least Brink moved the chains and he now has that full game under his belt. Montreal’s defense looks in fine shape and they still have one of the best offensive weapons in the league in Brandon Whitaker. Whitaker figures to get a ton of work against the Bombers soft defense. Overall, the Als have played consecutive games against B.C., Toronto, Edmonton and Saskatchewan and they take a step down here when facing a team that is very beatable right now. In fact, with Troy Smith at QB, Montreal scored 33 points against the Bombers back on July 11 but Winnipeg pulled a rabbit out of its hat and scored in the final seconds to win it, 34-33. That was probably the game we should have realized that Winnipeg could be a team in trouble.

The Bombers were crushed in Toronto last game while being outgained by almost 200 yards and surrendering nearly 500 yards of total offense. Over their past two games, Winnipeg has been outgained on the ground by a disturbing 250 yards. Drew Willy is not getting better each week. In fact, he’s getting worse. Willy is under constant pressure and as a result, he’s throwing the rock up for grabs. Winnipeg’s overall defense, pass protection and offense are all headed in the wrong direction, which is a poor recipe for spotting points. Winnipeg is just 2-2 at home and in Week 2 they were just a 4-point favorite over Ottawa. In Week 4 at Invesco Field, the Bombers were a 2-point choice over Edmonton and were buried by 23 points. Incredibly, the last time that Winnipeg was favored by 7 points or more was way back in October of 2011 when they were an 8-point favorite over the Argonauts and lost outright, 27-22. In 18 games last season, the Bombers were never favored. Winnipeg is not a team to be spotting significant points with. Montreal’s stock is still low after posting a 1-6 record to this point and because of its inability to score points. However, The Als are actually improving while the Bombers are regressing badly but this number does not reflect that. We’re calling the upset.

Our Pick
Montreal +7½ -115 (Risking 2.8 units - To Win: 2.43)

CFL 2014
CC
CFL 201FL 2014

Range	W	L	P	+/- (Units)
Yesterday	0	0	0.00	0.00
Last 30 Days	5	7	0.00	-4.59
Season to Date	14	12	0.00	+3.79

 

[gmrcharity]

Yup RAS can no longer be posted.

A question of protocol for CPAW, other mods and semi-gods: As I get back into the saddle for football I've noticed that the

recent service play threads are 80% CPAW doing all the work. Has something changed over the summer? Are posters like

myself not supposed to contribute the plays from a service that they actually subscibe to? Has the service that most of the

old timers/long timers on this website are used to seeing me post been moved to the "NO POST" zone? More than happy to

RAZZLE things up a bit if that's allowed/desired/helpful. Maybe that's the reason that I'm having trouble sending P.M.s Just

let me know and I will cease and desist. And thanks again to you CPAW for all your time and hard work. CHEERS

 

[gmrcharity]

Chase Diamond

20* Minnesota

 

[lolameraz]

Patron 50k ?

 

[HoneyBadger]

Mosi, I know that this post doesn't belong here, but I've brainlocked on how I turned off my P.M. feature

and need advice as to how to kick start it. Maybe others - forgetful like me or newbies - will find your reply

helpful. Maybe my inbox was closed because I didn't delete my stuff quickly enough. Apologies if that's the

case.

 

[Mosi]

Bob Balfe.

New England patriots -6

Write-up to Follow

 

[HoneyBadger]

gmrcharity / Buy Group King, Maybe my team and I can be helpful to you and what you do. As soon as I

get my P.M. ability sorted out, why don't you shoot me a message ?

 

[Mosi]

Falcon Sports

Miami Marlins -125 listing Alvarez/Morales

 

[Mosi]

Welcome to Ecks & Bacon (aka Chalk) for August 22, 2014

Washington Nationals -145

While we respect Tim Hudson for a long and distinguished Major League career, Doug Fister has been absolutely PHENOMENAL for the Nationals as they continue to rack up Ws. How phenomenal? ZERO is the key word. Fister has not allowed an earned run the last three times out, and we don't even need the STINKIN' calculator to tell us that it's a 0.00 ERA! He has won six of his last seven decisions, and if Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright or Johnny Cueto should falter down the stretch, Fister might say hello to CY! Looking over at Hudson, he has NOT won a game since July 19, and has managed ONLY ONE win in his last 11 outings. And if you're interested in his most recent work, it AIN'T pretty (21 hits, 10 earned runs, 15 innings for a 6.00 ERA). Gonna drop half a Benjamin on Washington.

And for all my baseball fanatics, we're leaning on the Yankees this evening.

 

[urwinner]

NorthCoast 3* Lions -3

comp Play Over Raiders/Packers 43

 

[mcming]

MEET YOUR MIMATCH : Any more BURNS?? The Oakland A's have to be his American Leauge Pf?? and the reds his nlPf?? thx. NFL ME

- BOTH ARE INCORRECT - GRAB A SIGN AND BEG FOR SOME CHANGE BOY

 

[Mosi]

Mosi, I know that this post doesn't belong here, but I've brainlocked on how I turned off my P.M. feature

and need advice as to how to kick start it. Maybe others - forgetful like me or newbies - will find your reply

helpful. Maybe my inbox was closed because I didn't delete my stuff quickly enough. Apologies if that's the

case.

I believe sometimes the Mods take away PM capabilities, but could be wrong.

Anyway go to:
Click on Settings (toward the top right of the home page)
under My Settings you will see My Account where you will click on General Settings
under Messaging & Notifications you should have a choice to enable or disable Private Messaging

 

[HoneyBadger]

Thanks for giving me a place to start but I reach a dead end when I get to Messages & Notifications

and have no pop-up menu for enable / disable. I shot a message to someone known as the

"administrator" but don't even know where to find his reply. I'll give it some time.

 

[safecracker]

PAUL LEINER

100* Chicago Bears +7
100* Dodgers -140
50* Orioles -115

NFLX 1500* 3-0
1000* 3-0

1000* Patriots OVER 45

PS-His lower plays win too in preseason action.

 

[Stabler12]

RAS can't be posted? How about StevieY?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RAS can't be posted? How about StevieY?

RAS advertises at the Rx now I haven't heard anything about StevieY.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pro Football Play of the Day - 8.22.14 August 22, 2014 6:35 AM by GT Staff

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots at 4:30 p.m.

Even though this is dress rehearsal week 3 in the NFL we will need to bet against the Patriots and the money as the Pats have gone 0-8 in their last eight preseason games when favored by more than three points.

255 Carolina Panthers +5½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GamingToday's Consensus Picks - 8.22.14 August 22, 2014 6:26 AM by GT Staff

NFL Football Preseason Week 3

253 Jacksonville Jaguars +3: The last 15 times in preseason that the Jags have faced a NFC team on the road they have gone 14-1.

258 New York Jets +1: In the battle for New York we will side with the Jets even though the money has come on the Giants as the Giants have not been a giant in week 3 of preseason losing the last six years in week 3.

MLB Baseball

903 San Francisco Giants +150: Great dog bet here as we go for the double five system play as the Nationals have won ten straight games.

905 Atlanta Braves +105: Atlanta fighting it out for the division while the Reds have packed it in in the NL Central.

922 Boston Red Sox +160: Both our five plays yesterday let us down but we will take a shot with the big dog Red Sox as they are home with a five game losing streak.

927 Los Angeles Angels +150: Huge series for the Angles here in Oakland, we like this dog play as the Angles are really playing good and getting some good pitching, they try to win their fifth straight game.