STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, AUGUST 21st 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 8/21/15 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2015 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Rounding The Bases – Friday
National League
•Braves @ Cubs
--Braves scored total of 15 runs in losing 10 of last 11 Miller starts; he is 0-1, 2.37 in his last three starts- -seven of his last eight stayed under
--Hendricks is 2-1, 6.07 in his last five starts (over 4-1).
--Braves lost eight of last ten games overall. Cubs lost three of their last four games-- five of their last seven games went over. Atlanta lost last three games with the Cubs, with last four going under- they scored two runs total in last three series games.
•Giants @ Pirates
--Bumgarner is 3-0, 0.71 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-2 in his last six.
--Locke is 0-1, 5.06 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-2 in his last five..
--Pittsburgh won eight of last ten games with the Giants; over is 3-1-2 in last six series games. Pirates won 11 of last 13 games (over 8-4-2). SF lost three of last four games; under is 8-2-1 in its last eleven.
•Brewers @ Nationals
--Nelson is 2-0, 1.83 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).
--Gonzalez is 3-1, 4.02 in his last six starts (over 5-1).
--Milwaukee lost four of last six games with Washington (over 5-1); Brewers won four of last six games overall; over is 2-0-1 in last three. Nationals lost seven of last nine games (under 6-3).
•Diamondbacks @ Reds
--De la Rosa is 4-0, 2.54 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.
--Holmberg is 0-2, 7.24 in his last three starts (under 4-3).
--Arizona won four of last five games with Cincinnati; eight of last nine games in series stayed under the total. D'backs lost five of last eight games; four of last five stayed under. Reds lost nine of last eleven games; their last four all stayed under the total.
•Phillies @ Marlins
--Eickhoff is making MLB debut; he was acquired in Hamels trade, is 11-5, 4.01 in 20 AAA starts this year..
--Flores is making first MLB start; he is 3-2, 2.61 in ten AAA starts this year, has allowed three runs in 7.2 IP in six big league relief stints.
--Philly won three of last five games with Miami (over 4-1); Phils lost seven of last nine games (over 7-3 in last ten). Marlins scored 37 runs in winning four of last five games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine.
•Mets @ Rockies
--Colon is 1-1, 2.49 in his last four starts; three of last four went over.
--Gray is 0-0, 3.00 in his three starts (over 2-1).
--Mets won their last eight games with Colorado; home side won nine of last 10 in series; seven of last eight stayed under- they lost four of last five games overall; their last four games went over. Rockies lost eight of last ten games; three of their last four games stayed under the total.
•Cardinals @ Padres
--Lackey is 3-2, 2.55 in his last six starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.
--Cashner is 0-2, 6.35 in his last four starts (over 3-1).
--St Louis won six of last nine games with San Diego; last three series games stayed under total. Cardinals won six of last nine games (under 2-0-1 in last three). Padres won seven of last nine games; six of last eight went over.
American League
•Indians @ Yankees
--Carrasco is 1-1, 1.36 in his last four starts (under 3-1).
--Tanaka is 2-1, 2.57 in his last three starts (under 5-2 in last seven).
--New York lost five of last six games with Cleveland (over 6-4 in last ten), but they won six of last eight games overall; six of their last nine stayed under total. Indians lost four of last six games (three of last four went over).
•Rangers @ Tigers
--Lewis is 5-1, 3.95 in his last six starts (over 6-3 in last nine).
--Verlander is 1-2, 2.25 in his last five starts (under 4-1).
--Texas lost its last four games with Detroit; six of last eight series games got over the total. Rangers won six of last eight games overall; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven. Tigers won four of last five games, scoring 29 runs the last three nights- three of their last four games went over.
•Twins @ Orioles
--Milone is 1-2, 7.32 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-2 in his last ten.
--Chen is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts; three of his last four went over.
--Minnesota won its last five games with Baltimore; over is 4-1-1 in last six in series. Twins lost five of last eight games; four of last seven stayed under. Orioles won five of last seven games; four of their last five went over the total.
•Royals @ Red Sox
--Cueto is 2-0, 0.53 in two starts for KC; four of his last six road starts stayed under the total.
--Owens is 1-1, 6.19 in his three stats; all three went over.
--Royals lost nine of last 11 games with Boston; five of last six series games went over the total. KC won five of its last six games, allowing 16 runs (under 5-1). Red Sox won five of last seven games; 10 of their last 11 games went over.
•Rays @ Athletics
--Smyly is 0-2, 4.35 in his last four starts; nine of his last ten stayed under.
--Bassitt is 1-0, 1.66 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.
--Tampa Bay lost five of last seven games; under is 4-1 in last five games; Rays are 4-6 in last ten games with Oakland (under 6-2-2). A's won their last five home games.
•Blue Jays @ Angels
--Price is 2-0, 1.61 in three Toronto starts; six of his last seven stayed under.
--Santiago is 0-2, 5.40 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under.
--Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 games; seven of last ten stayed under total. Angels are 6-4 in last ten games with Toronto. Halos won three of last four games overall; under is 6-4 in their last ten games.
•White Sox @ Mariners
--Sale is 2-0, 1.26 in his last two starts; four of his last five went over.
--Hernandez is 2-2, 9.13 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over. He has allowed 41 hits in his last 22.2 IP.
--White Sox lost five of last six games; over is 2-3 in its last five games. Chicago lost three of last four games with Seattle; five of last six series games went under the total. Mariners lost four of last six games (under 2-0-1 in last three).
Interleague
•Dodgers @ Astros
--Anderson is 3-0, 2.38 in his last four road starts (under 2-1-1).
--Fiers is 0-0, 2.25 in two Houston starts; five of his last seven starts went over.
--Dodgers won eight of last ten games with Houston (under 6-3-1). LA lost eight of its last ten road games- four of its last six games overall went over. Astros won five of last eight games; their last three games stayed under total.
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•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- SF-Pitt-- Bumgarner 15-9; Locke 13-10 (4-1 last 5)
-- Az-Cin-- De la Rosa 14-10 (5-1 last 6); Holmberg 1-3
-- Mil-Wsh-- Nelson 12-12 (5-1 last 6); Gonzalez 13-9
-- Phil-Mia-- Eickhoff 0-0; Flores 0-0
-- Atl-Chi-- Miller 10-14 (1-10 last 11); Hendricks 14-10 (4-0 last 4)
-- NY-Col-- Colon 10-13 (1-9 last 10); Gray 0-3
-- StL-SD-- Lackey 13-11; Cashner 9-14
-- Clev-NY-- Carrasco 14-10; Tanaka 12-5
-- Tex-Det-- Lewis 12-12; Verlander 2-9
-- Min-Balt-- Milone 8-7; Chen 15-8 (5-0 last 5)
-- KC-Bos-- Cueto 13-10/2-2; Owens 1-2
-- TB-A's-- Smyly 2-2; Bassitt 3-5
-- Tor-LAA-- Price 17-8/2-1; Santiago 12-11 (1-4 last 5)
-- Chi-Sea-- Sale 14-9; Hernandez 16-8
-- LA-Hst-- Anderson 12-11; Fiers 12-11/1-1
•Times This Starting Pitcher Allowed A Run In First Inning
-- SF-Pitt-- Bumgarner 4-24; Locke 5-23
-- Az-Cin-- De la Rosa 6-24; Holmberg 0-4
-- Mil-Wsh-- Nelson 8-24; Gonzalez 2-22
-- Phil-Mia-- Eickhoff 0-0; Flores 0-0
-- Atl-Chi-- Miller 4-24; Hendricks 4-24
-- NY-Col-- Colon 7-23; Gray 2-3
-- StL-SD-- Lackey 5-24; Cashner 10-23 (4 of last 5)
-- Clev-NY-- Carrasco 11-24; Tanaka 4-17
-- Tex-Det-- Lewis 5-24; Verlander 3-11
-- Min-Balt-- Milone 2-15; Chen 6-23
-- KC-Bos-- Cueto 5-23; Owens 2-3
-- TB-A's-- Smyly 1-4; Bassitt 1-8
-- Tor-LAA-- Price 4-24; Santiago 7-23
-- Chi-Sea-- Sale 8-23; Hernandez 7-24
-- LA-Hst-- Anderson 9-23; Fiers 2-23
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Incredible Stats of the Day
•King Felix Getting Roughed Up Since All-Star Break
Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has not exactly lived up to his moniker of "King" since the All-Star break. Hernandez is 3-2 with a 6.31 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break and has served up six homers after giving up 10 in 18 starts prior to the break. The 29-year-old is coming off his worst outing of the season as the Boston Red Sox smacked three home runs and tallied 10 earned runs in a 22-10 win. In Hernandez's six starts since the break, the Over has a record of 4-2. Hernandez will be pitted against the Chicago White Sox and their ace Chris Sale Friday evening. The Mariners are presently -108 and the total is at 6 - the lowest on Friday's board.
•Mets Have Owned Rockies In Recent Matchups
The Colorado Rockies just can't figure out the New York Mets, evidenced by the Rockies being on the losing end in each of the last eight times the clubs have met. New York is set to invade Coors Field in Friday's action on the diamond, with Bartolo Colon scheduled to get the nod for the Metropolitans. Jonathan Gray is the probable starter for the Rockies. The Mets are listed as slight -113 moneyline faves at most sportsbooks.
•Home Teams Cashing For Bettors With Bucknor As Ump
Home teams have gone 14-3 in the last 17 games when umpire CB Bucknor is working behind home plate. Bucknor is scheduled to call balls and strikes at Yankee Stadium when the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Indians Friday evening. Season to date, home teams have gone 14-7 in 21 games with Bucknor working the plate. Home teams have averaged 4.62 runs per game while visitors have plated an average of 2.81. Recently, home teams have a four-game winning streak in Bucknor's games, including three shutouts. The Yanks are presently -143 while the Indians are +132.
•Orioles Having No Issues Bouncing Back
The Baltimore Orioles have been a solid bet to bounce back in games after a loss lately. In their last nine contests coming off a loss, the O's are 8-1. In the wake of a 15-2 beat down by the Minnesota Twins on Thursday, Baltimore will be seeking to right the ship Friday against the Twinkies. Tommy Milone and Wei-Yin Chen are slated to get the ball for Minny and Baltimore, respectively. Buck Showalter's crew are presently -161 moneyline favorites at sportsbooks.
•Orioles Having No Issues Bouncing Back
The Baltimore Orioles have been a solid bet to bounce back in games after a loss lately. In their last nine contests coming off a loss, the O's are 8-1. In the wake of a 15-2 beat down by the Minnesota Twins on Thursday, Baltimore will be seeking to right the ship Friday against the Twinkies. Tommy Milone and Wei-Yin Chen are slated to get the ball for Minny and Baltimore, respectively. Buck Showalter's crew are presently -161 moneyline favorites at sportsbooks.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 (+13.6 Units) against the money line versus poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 5.8, OPPONENT 3.6.
•CINCINNATI is 13-1 UNDER (+12.0 Units) versus good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 2.5, OPPONENT 2.4.
•LA ANGELS are 1-9 (-12.8 Units) against the run line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was LA ANGELS 3.0, OPPONENT 5.5.
•MADISON BUMGARNER is 17-1 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUMGARNER 5.8, OPPONENT 2.1.
•BARTOLO COLON is 11-0 OVER (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLON 6.5, OPPONENT 3.8.
•KYLE HENDRICKS is 11-1 (+11.2 Units) against the run line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HENDRICKS 3.8, OPPONENT 2.1.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+135 to -190) (BALTIMORE) – a poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, revenging a loss versus opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a marginal losing team.
(45-15 since 1997.) (75.0%, +35.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (51-9)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.5, money line price: +113
The average score in these games was: Team 5.9, Opponent 3 (Average run differential = +2.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 32 (53.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -1.0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3, +10.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3, +16.6 units).
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