WUNDERDOG
Game: Baltimore at Washington (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +121 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.6)
The Orioles inexplicably won two of three vs. the Cubs for a series win. The O's are playing well but well enough to be favored here on the road? Yes, the Nats have problems but they are at home and we like the pitching matchup. Odalis Perez has a respectable 4.09 overall ERA which is 2.56 at home! Facing him is Daniel Cabrera who not only has a higher overall ERA but he owns a sky-high 6.88 ERA over his last three starts. He is 3-12 the past decade in inter-league play. The Orioles are just 44-73 vs. LHP the past three seasons. We'll fade the Orioles here at a nice price.
Game: St. Louis at Kansas City (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Kansas City -124 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.4)
We might sound like a broken record here but the Royals are a young team with a fragile ego. They have already proven that with losing streaks of seven and 12 games on the season. The flip side of that is what is currently happening as they have won five straight and 11 of 12. They now have won five straight for the third time this season. The ego is healthy now, and that's when they win games. Gil Meche closed April with nearly an 8 ERA, and he has since gotten it below 5 with some good outings and has his confidence restored. Joel Piniero has given the Cards more than we thought they were getting. Even with that said they have still dropped his last five starts due in part to a bullpen that has allowed three additional runs a game in those starts. Kansas City is playing with energy and Meche has been the $11 million pitcher they signed, so we take the Royals here.
Game: Milwaukee at Minnesota (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Minnesota -119 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 3.4)
This game has our attention. We have a team that has run off nine-straight wins, playing at home and could move into first place in the AL Central with a win at less than 6-5 favorites? The Twins have won these nine games by a tally of 54-19 or four runs a game. No team has produced more than three runs a game against them, and Nick Blackburn has allowed one run or less in five of his seven starts at the Dome. Another footnote here is the Twins have been dominating the NL to the tune of 40-12 over their last 52 games, and they are 40-15 in their last 55 as a favorite in interleague play. The Brewers have struggled to a 5-12 mark in their last 17 against RHP. The Twins have yet to lose at home this year in interleague play, and have put 20 of their last 24 in the win column against the NL at home. Hot Twins sizzle to their 10th straight win.
Game: Seattle at San Diego (10:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +128 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 3.
The Padres continue to swoon. They did make a 13-6 run, but have since given it all back and then some going 1-9 over their last 10. The problem continues to be their inability to score, as they reached 33 games on the season scoring three or less last night and have done so now for four straight games. The Mariners haven't given much to be excited about except for the fact they have now gone 6-6 in their last 12 on the road, which sure shows a lot of growth for a team that took 27 games to win their first seven on the road. These are two bad teams, but with one playing better than the other. With the Padres favored off a 1-9 run, and 19-42 outside of their 13-6 streak, the value is all over the Mariners here.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:40 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 8 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)
The Angels? Joe Saunders looks to become the first 12-game winner of the '08 season. Saunders has shown to be a quick starter as he was out of the gate last year with an ERA under three in late June that ended in the 4's. In '06 he posted an ERA of three over the first half of his 12 starts, but finished in the 4's. This year the ERA that was once a solid two, has risen to over three. Are we seeing the same career long trend? We think so. The Dodgers have established one thing that covers over 80 games. They have played OVER to the tune of 49-24-3 as a home dog. We like the value set from both sides here, and see this one going OVER the total.
WUNDERDOG (wnba)
Game: Atlanta at Connecticut (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Atlanta +15.5 (-110) (risk 5 to win 4.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total OVER 159.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Rumor has it the Atlanta Dream is considering a nickname change to the Atlanta Nightmares. The Dream has yet to earn a WNBA win this season through 13 games. To their credit they have been trying to make changes as only two players have started in 10 or more games, but nothing seems to matter. What can be said however is that this team still has lost in blowouts only twice on the road this season. For the Connecticut Sun, what is left to be had here? They beat this team by 32 points in the season opener, and are coming off their two biggest games of the season against Detroit back-to-back with a third coming soon. Those games were split, and lots of emotional energy discharged, so what kind of energy is put into a game like this? Sometimes value isn't determined by X's and O's, but by emotional game factors, and this is a favorable spot for the Dream to stay within this huge number. That also means if the intensity is down, the points are usually up. As it is the Dream allow 85 points per game, and if the Sun is napping as we expect the Dream has proven they can get in the 70s under normal circumstances as they have in eight of the 13 on the season and could be good for more here. We?ll take the Dream and the OVER in this one.