DAVE ESSLER
MLB Friday
Free pick – 927 COL (+140) vs 928 CLE
Analysis: Gonzalez is still listed a questionable, but with a day off I suspect he plays. Even if he doesn’t, the Rockies with a DH (regardless of WHO) can’t be this price against a team that just lost three straight to the White Sox. I do know how badly the Rockies have been hitting, but when Jason Giambi, who is hitting .105, is your DH and accounts for the only run you scored, it doesn’t matter to me if Kluber or Bob Feller is pitching, you’re not worth -150, period. I thought about the RL here and probably should split it, especially seeing as how right now they’re projecting a lower scoring game. And with a DH, as long as the Rockies are in this, we can avoid the Colorado bullpen a bit longer, I would think.
The other games:
The money and the line moves are on the Mets, but there’s some seriously sharp money on the under. Perhaps buying that to 8 and playing the under is an option. I can’t ever get a read on AJ, honestly, and I don’t think AJ can either. This is one that I can definitely see the Mets F5 because of the foreign pitcher.
We all saw what the Braves did last night. And they’ve got to be travel weary because they played two in Atlanta against Boston before that. A little surprised Teheran is still so cheap, and Koehler has been one of our go-to guys and of course thee Fish are rested. The Miami RL is really not that expensive.
I do like to back Wood when the Cubs are playing, and honestly because theses guys know each other so well I do like the over here. Both pens suck, so it won’t take a lot to open the floodgates and I don’t care of the roof is open or not. Cubs RL and over.
Seems to be a lot of people liking the Giants, and that is pricey for even Wainright, but after fading him last time and watching him make me look silly, I’m not inclined to do it again. Bumgarner HAS been lights-out lately, so I could only take the under. But, that’s one I really want no part of.
Everyone’s lining up to fade Beckett after the no hitter. I am really pissed we didn’t follow the money on the Pirates last night. What I could do here is take the over because Beckett DID have to throw a ton of pitches in that game, so maybe even a F5 under and over for the game?
I totally don’t get the Twins love against Nuno in New York, but there’s so much of it I would have to take the Twins. Reminds me eerily of the Pirates last night. Twins RL is pretty expensive, so I could either play that small or parlay it with something. Playing it small is smarter, or just play the Twins. It’s almost an auto-follow move, really.
It looks as if they think the Blue Jays will lose again, or they have no faith in Happ. I have no faith in Happ, either, but perhaps even less faith with KC against a LHP. I do think this stays under, and so does the mid afternoon money.
I will never fade Price against Boston because they do have success against him, however he’s got revenge from a recent game against Boston, and it IS Workman. I could see taking the Boston RL, as perhaps that late comeback (or having it handed to you) last night sparks something.
A little surprised Garrett Richards has fallen that much out of favor that much, but the Angels are not as deadly against LHP and traveled late last night while the A’s did not. Pomeranz was a fade with the Rockies, but in Oakland and the big park, I can see taking them at that price. We won’t get them at -120 at home anytime soon, and they do have a better pen. Quite likely under, too.
Everyone is also fading Verlander, and I mean everyone. I guess I can see why, since Iwakuma seems to be back to “normal”, but I have to ask how often I can get JV at + money. Tigers played yesterday PM while M’s played late and long. This one might have F5 U written on it, too.
They’re giving Texas way too much credit here and it sure can’t be because of Colby Lewis. It could be because the Nats can’t hit RHP worth a sh*t? Either way, that one has Texas RL or nothing written on it, and perhaps under because the Rangers can’t hit RHP this season, either. Another F5 U maybe and comes down to pens, and neither has an edge, really. Nats a bit more rested.
As you can see everyone in the world is taking the Padres. I shall pass that one simply because although Kennedy is good, it’s the Padres on the road -120 and that’s just an over reaction to how bad the White Sox have been. However, the Padres DO hammer LHP (as a rule), so perhaps they are right here and the Padres are that easy. They clearly have the better pen and SD gets the DH.
