SAC LAWSON
MLB RunLine Fri, 04/09/10 - 7:10 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 908 NYM -1.5 (+150) Bodog vs 907 WAS
Analysis: I know a lot of people have no love for Pelfrey, and I get that completely, the guy is very inconsistent and can be very very bad at times. Fact is though, he was 3 runs better in terms of ERA at Citi Field last year compared to on the road. Citi Field is a big park and it suited his contact pitching style very very well. Also, he's kept his ERA fairly low over the last few years when facing the Nationals (in the high 3's).
On the other side, Garrett Mock is a guy that I literally circle everytime he's on the card. He's a young guy who has been absolutely terrible in his first two seasons in the bigs. He's got some command issues, and he's proven to be extremely hittable (a 0.308 clip to opposing batters). Against the Met's specifically he's only started one game, and it was a game in which he lost. I'm not sure what the staff in Washington sees in this guy, or whether it's just a matter of having no other options (which is likely), but Garrett Mock simply does not have swing and miss kinda stuff.
Starting Pitching aside, there's absolutely no way on earth I'd want to be on that Washington side when their bullpen hits the field. You compare the back ends of both these teams, and there's not one sane person on the planet that wouldn't take the mets. In my estimation, the worst case scenario is a tie ball game when both teams go to the pen... from their, I'd still take the Mets by two runs.
I know everyone is a bit jazzed following that Nationals win over the Phillies yesterday, but let's not get carried away.. This is still the Nationals, and still one of the worst starters in the majors toeing the rubber tonight. SO why take the Runline? Pelfrey is capable of imploding himself, and that Nats lineup can get hot and really produce. If Pelfrey has a bad evening, the Mets lose outright... If Mock has the bad outing, and their bullpen is subpar as usual the Met's will win easily. I would much rather take the extra 80-90 dollars of value than take the one run with a couple pitchers that simply do not produce close games.