SPORTS ADVISORS
West Virginia (7-3, 4-5 ATS) at Pittsburgh (7-3, 4-5 ATS)
The Mountaineers go looking for a little payback when they head to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh for a Big East showdown with Pitt in the 101st edition of the Backyard Brawl.
Pitt was a 28½-point underdog a year ago when it went to West Virginia and shocked the then-No. 2 Mountaineers 13-9, ending West Virginia’s hopes of playing for a national championship. The road team has won the last two Backyard Brawls (2-0 ATS), and West Virginia has a 6-4 SU and ATS edge over the last decade, as the straight-up winner is a perfect 10-0 ATS during this stretch.
West Virginia has won six of its last seven games and comes into this one off Saturday’s 35-21 victory at Louisville as a seven-point favorite. QB Pat White ran for 200 yards and three TDs to break the NCAA career rushing record for QBs with 4,292 yards. He also threw for two TDs to earn Big East Offensive Player of the Week honors.
This is White’s fourth game against Pitt, and he led the Mountaineers to wins with 220 yards rushing in each of his first two games, but was held to 41 yards on 14 carries in last year’s shocking loss.
Pittsburgh lost 28-21 at Cincinnati as a six-point ‘dog Saturday, wiping out any chance the Panthers had of winning the Big East championship and the league’s automatic BCS bowl berth. Pitt has the country’s 14th leading rusher in LeSean McCoy, who is averaging 112 yards a game and put up 148 yards on the ground against West Virginia last year.
Dave Wannstedt’s Panthers are on several ATS slides, including 16-35 after a straight-up loss, 1-6 at home and 3-8 in November games, but they’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog. With last week’s spread-cover at Louisville, the Mountaineers improved to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games, but they’re just 1-6 ATS in their last seven after an spread-cover.
For West Virginia, the over is on streaks of 4-0 overall and 23-9 in November. Pitt has stayed under the number in four of its last five home games and six of its last eight after a non-cover, but the Panthers have topped the total in four of five overall and five of six on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
LSU (7-4, 2-8 ATS) at Arkansas (4-7, 4-6 ATS)
The Razorbacks will try to end an otherwise miserable season on a high note when they host LSU in the SEC regular-season finale for both schools in Fayetteville, Ark.
The Tigers have alternated wins and losses over their last eight (1-7 ATS) and just got destroyed at home Saturday, falling 31-13 to Mississippi as a three-point favorites. They managed just 37 yards rushing against Ole Miss, but are still averaging almost 168 rushing yards per game for the season. Les Miles’ once-stout defense has allowed 161 points in its four SEC losses, and it is last in the conference with only six interceptions.
Arkansas has lost four of its last five (3-2 ATS) by a combined 19 points, with the lone victory being a 30-23 home win over ranked Tulsa as a seven-point home ‘dog on Nov. 1. On Saturday, the Razorbacks dropped a 31-28 decision at Mississippi State, coming up short as a 2½-point road chalk. Five of Arkansas’ last six games were decided by seven points or less, including four by a field goal or less.
The Razorbacks got a thrilling 50-48 triple-overtime win over then top-ranked LSU in Baton Rouge last season, cashing as a 13-point underdog as the teams combined for 926 yards of offense. That result snapped a four-game LSU winning streak in the series (3-1 ATS). The outright winner has now gotten the cash in seven of the last 10 meetings, the visitor has covered in each of the last four clashes and LSU is 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to Fayetteville.
LSU is 5-2 ATS in Friday contests and 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 after a straight-up loss, but otherwise the ATS numbers are all ugly for the Tigers, including 0-5 overall, 0-6 in November, 8-20-2 in SEC games and 0-4 against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Arkansas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a non-cover.
For the Tigers, the over is on runs of 14-5 overall, 7-2 in November, 11-3 in SEC action, 5-1 on the road and 5-1 on Fridays. The Razorbacks are on over stretches of 13-6 on grass, 5-1 after a non-cover and 4-1 on Fridays. Lastly, the over is 4-1 in the last five matchups in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LSU
Colorado (5-6, 3-7 ATS) at Nebraska (7-4, 6-5 ATS)
Colorado makes the trek to Lincoln, Neb., needing a victory in their Big 12 finale against the Cornhuskers to become bowl eligible.
Colorado has lost three of four both SU and ATS, including a 30-17 home loss to Oklahoma State back on Nov. 15, though the Buffs got the cash as a 17-point ‘dog to snap an 0-7 ATS slump. Colorado is 0-4 SU and ATS on the road this season, failing to top 21 points in any of those contests. The Buffaloes rank 105th in the nation in scoring offense at 19.2 ppg and 91st in total offense (321 yards per game).
Nebraska has won four of its last five (3-2 ATS), including a 56-28 rout at Kansas State in its most recent contest on Nov. 15, covering as six-point road favorites. The Huskers could pull into a tie for first in the Big 12 North with a win and a Missouri loss to Kansas on Saturday, but Nebraska is out of the running for the Big 12 Championship game because of a blowout home loss to the Tigers back on Oct. 4. A victory at home today likely sends first-year coach Bo Pelini and his Huskers to the Jan. 1 Gator Bowl.
Colorado got a wild 65-51 home win over Nebraska a year ago, cashing as a three-point favorite. It was the last game in Bill Callahan’s coaching career at Nebraska and got third-year Colorado coach Dan Hawkins his first win in this rivalry. The Buffs have covered in seven of the last 10 meetings, including five in a row from 1998-2002. Lastly, the winner is 7-0 ATS over the last seven years.
There’s nothing good to report on the ATS front for Colorado, which is on slides of 1-7 overall, 5-16 on the road, 7-19 in Big 12 contests, 8-20 against teams with a winning record and 3-8 in November games. It’s all negative ATS trends for the Huskers as well, including 4-9 at home, 2-10 after a straight-up win, 3-9 on Fridays and 5-12-1 on field turf.
For the Buffs, the over is 9-3 in their last 12 on Friday and 7-2 in their last nine in November, but otherwise the under is on streaks of 5-1 overall (all against the Big 12) and 4-1 on the road. For Nebraska, the over is on runs of 17-7 at home, 22-7 in November games, 4-1 after a bye week and 7-3 in Big 12 games. Finally, in head-to-head meetings, the over has been the play in six of the last contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Fresno State (7-4, 2-9 ATS) at (9) Boise State (11-0, 6-3 ATS)
Boise State’s has already wrapped up the WAC championship and looks to finish the regular season unbeaten for the third time in the last five years when it welcomes the Bulldogs to the Smurf Turf.
Boise State earned its sixth WAC title in the last seven years after beating Nevada 41-34 as 6½-point favorites in Reno on Saturday. The offense, which has topped the 40-point mark in each of the last four games, got a career-high 414 yards and three TD passes from freshman QB Kellen Moore, and the defense held the nation’s second leading rushing team to 144 yards on the ground.
Despite the win at Nevada, Boise’s hopes of a BCS bowl bid were dashed on Saturday when Utah ended its regular season with a dominating victory over BYU to finish undefeated. Utah, which is ranked one spot ahead of the Broncos in the BCS standings, clinch the at-large bid into the BCS party.
Fresno State assured itself of a bowl bid a week ago with a 24-10 win at San Jose State, cashing as a three-point road chalk to end an 0-9 ATS drought. The Bulldogs rallied from a 10-3 halftime deficit thanks to a pair of TD runs from Anthony Harding, who finished with 99 yards on 17 carries.
The Broncos have won and covered six of the last seven meetings with Fresno State, including last year’s 34-21 road victory as 2½-point favorites. Boise State has won 48 straight regular-season home games, and the last time the Broncos hosted Fresno, they scored a 45-21 win as a 21½-point chalk. The straight-up winner is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings going back to 1996.
Fresno State is on ATS slides of 10-28 overall, 4-12 against teams with a winning record, 1-4 on the road, 1-6 on Fridays and 7-19 in WAC contests, but they are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 after a spread-cover. Boise State is on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 6-2-1 overall, 38-17-2 at home, 35-14-1 as a home chalk since 1999 (1-2-1 this year), 8-3-1 in WAC contests, 28-9-2 in November, 9-3 on Fridays and 32-12-1 against teams with a winning record.
The Bulldogs have stayed under the total in four of their last five November games, four straight Friday contests and four of their last five when coming off a spread-cover. The Broncos have topped the total in four of five against teams with a winning record, but they are on under runs of 5-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 on Fridays. Lastly, the under is 4-1 in the last five Fresno-Boise battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Purdue (5-0, 3-1 ATS) vs. (12) Oklahoma (5-0, 2-1 ATS)
(at New York)
The preseason NIT Championship game pits two unbeaten Top 15 programs against one another, as Purdue battles the Sooners at Madison Square Garden.
The Boilermakers outlasted Boston College 71-64 on Wednesday night, but came up short as an 8½-point favorite when the Eagles made a meaningless basket at the buzzer. Four of five starters scored in double figures for Purdue, which has scored at least 71 points in four of its five wins. The Boilers are averaging 76.8 points (44.4 percent shooting) and allowing 52.8 points (34 percent shooting) on the season.
Oklahoma rallied from a five-point halftime deficit and beat UAB 77-67 as a five-point favorite in Wednesday’s other semifinal contest at the Garden. Sophomore big man Blake Griffin had another monster game with 32 points and 16 rebounds, his fifth straight double-double to start the season, and he’s averaging 27.2 points and 19 boards per contest. The Sooners shot 54 percent from the field against UAB, with Griffin going 11-for-14.
These schools have split four meetings this decade, with Purdue going 3-1 ATS, all as an underdog. In the most recent clash in 2006 in the Maui Invitational, the Boilermakers won 74-71 as a four-point pup.
Prior to topping UAB, the Sooners advanced to the Big Apple with wins over Mississippi Valley State (94-53) and Davidson (82-78), both at home. Purdue punched its ticket to New York with easy home wins over Eastern Michigan (87-58) and Loyola-Chicago (78-46), covering as a double-digit chalk in both games.
The Boilermakers are on an 18-5-1 ATS tear since early January, including 12-3 ATS as a favorite, and they’re 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 after a SU win, 4-0 ATS in their last four after a non-cover and 5-1 ATS in their last six on Fridays. On the downside, Purdue has failed to cover in nine of its last 13 non-conference games and four of its last five at neutral sites.
Oklahoma has also struggled at neutral sites recently (6-17 ATS), and it is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against the Big Ten, but the Sooners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 non-league contests.
The over is 4-2 in Purdue’s last six lined games overall, 4-1 in its last five at neutral sites, 6-3 in its past nine lined non-conference games and 9-4 in its last 13 on Fridays. The over is also 8-2-1 in Oklahoma’s last 11 non-conference tilts, but otherwise the Sooners are on “under” ‘streaks of 8-3-1 overall and 6-2-1 at neutral venues.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(4) Pittsburgh (5-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. Texas Tech (5-0, 0-1 ATS)
(at Newark, N.J.)
Two teams off to impressive 5-0 starts meet up in the Legends Classic in New Jersey, with Pitt battling Texas Tech in a matchup of high-scoring teams.
The Panthers venture away from home for the first time this season after crushing their first five opponents by double digits. That includes Tuesday’s 74-60 rout of Belmont in a non-lined game, even though Pitt set marks for fewest number of points and smallest margin of victory in the contest. The Panthers are netting 82 points per game against Division I opponents (55 percent shooting) and allowing 60.8 ppg (37 percent shooting).
Texas Tech is coming off Tuesday’s 74-63 win over Southeast Louisiana, also in a non-lined outing. The Red Raiders have scored 81, 87, 167, 98 and 74 points in its five wins, but only one – a 98-84 triumph over Eastern Kentucky – came against a Division I opponent, and they failed to cover as a 19-point favorite in that one.
Going back to last year, Texas Tech has failed to cover in four straight lined games. The Red Raiders are also in ATS ruts of 0-4 against the Big East, 1-5 at neutral sites and 1-4 after a SU win. Meanwhile, Pitt is on positive pointspread runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at neutral venues and 14-4-1 on Fridays, but the Panthers have failed to cover in four of their last five against the Big 12.
In lined games, the over is on runs of 11-1 for Texas Tech overall, 4-0 for Texas Tech at neutral sites, 13-3 for Pitt overall and 4-1 for Pitt in non-conference play.
The winner of this game faces the winner of Washington State-Mississippi State on Saturday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT and OVER
NBA
Philadelphia (7-8, 6-9 ATS) at Boston (14-2, 8-8 ATS)
The Celtics will try to make it seven straight wins when they host the Sixers inside the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
Boston improved to 8-1 SU in front of the home fans this season with Wednesday’s 119-111 home win over the Warriors. The Celtics came up short as 12-point favorites, falling to 3-6 ATS at home this year and ending a four-game overall ATS winning streak.
Philadelphia has followed up a 5-1 run (4-2 ATS) by dropping two in a row SU and ATS. That includes Wednesday’s 96-95 loss to the Magic as five-point home favorites. Philly is 2-5 SU and ATS on the road this season, including a 93-84 loss in Charlotte as a three-point chalk in its most recent road venture on Sunday.
The road team has dominated this rivalry lately, winning seven of nine (7-1-1 ATS) and going 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The visitor won three of the four meetings last season, with the Sixers getting a 95-90 win in Boston as nine-point underdogs in late March. The underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 series clashes and the Celtics have gotten the cash in nine of the last 13.
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five against Atlantic Division rivals, but otherwise the Sixers are on pointspread slides of 2-7 on the road, 3-9 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 overall and 1-4 following a straight-up loss. Boston is on a 2-5 ATS slide at home but on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 35-16-3 against the Atlantic Division, 4-1 overall, 7-3 after a day off and 45-22-2 against teams with a losing record.
It’s been nothing but unders for the Sixers lately, including 11-4-1 overall, 8-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 on Fridays and 5-0 after a day off. For Boston, the over is 4-1 in its last five against the Eastern Conference, but the under is 5-1 in its last six Friday games and 12-5 in its last 17 at home against teams with a losing road record. In this rivalry, the under is 11-5 in the last 16 matchups in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Miami (7-8, 6-8-1 ATS) at Phoenix (11-5, 8-8 ATS)
The Suns return to the desert after a successful two-game road trip and host the Heat inside the US Airways Center in Phoenix.
Terry Porter’s Suns went to Oklahoma City on Tuesday and escaped with a 99-98 win but came nowhere near covering as 10-point favorites. Then Wednesday they went to Minnesota and got a 110-102 victory as a four-point road chalk, getting double-digit scoring from all five starters, including an 18-point, 10-rebound effort from Shaquille O’Neal.
Miami is coming off its lowest-point total of the season Wednesday when the Heat were crushed 106-68 in Portland as 7 ½-point underdogs. Dwyane Wade, the second leading scorer in the NBA behind LeBron James, had just 12 points on 5-of-14 shooting.
The road team has won four of the last five in this series (2-3 ATS), including both games last season when Miami was able to get a 117-113 win in the desert as a 12-point underdog. Even with the recent road-team success, the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games and the Heat have a 9-4 ATS advantage in the last 13 series clashes.
Miami is just 7-19-2 ATS in its last 28 games against teams with a winning record, but the Heat are riding ATS streaks of 15-6 against the Pacific Division, 5-0 on Fridays and 9-2 after a straight-up loss. Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Eastern Conference, but the Suns are on ATS slides of 0-4 on Fridays, 1-4 against teams with a losing record and 0-4 after a spread-cover.
The Heat have topped the total in 10 of their last 14 games against Pacific Division teams, but they are on under streaks of 5-1 on the road, 7-2 against the Western Conference, 9-3 after a non-cover and 19-7 after a straight-up loss. The Suns have gone over the total in 22 of their last 28 games against Eastern Conference foes and six straight against Southeast Division teams, but the under is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 at home and 5-1 on Fridays for Phoenix. In this series, the over is 5-2 in the last seven in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
Dallas (7-7, 6-8 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (12-1, 9-4 ATS)
The Mavericks and Lakers bring five-game winning streaks into the Staples Center in Los Angeles tonight when these two square off in a Western Conference showdown.
Dallas has won five straight (4-1 ATS) on the heels of a five-game SU and ATS losing streak. The Mavs beat the Pacers in Dallas on Tuesday, 109-106, failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. They are riding a three-game SU and ATS road winning streak into this one and have been getting the job done witih defense on the highway, giving up just 94.8 points and 41.1 percent shooting on the road.
Los Angeles has been a scoring machine this season, averaging 108.2 points per game overall and 112.6 per game at home. The Lakers come into this one off a 120-93 win over the Nets on Tuesday, easily cashing as a 13 ½-point home chalk. They have topped the 100-point mark in eight of their last 10 games (7-3 ATS).
Phil Jackson’s squad has won four straight over the Mavs, including a 106-99 victory in Dallas back on Nov. 11, cashing as a 5 ½-point road favorite. The home team has won seven of the last 10 series clashes (3-6-1 ATS), but the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six and the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15.
Dallas is on ATS slides of 1-4 after a non-cover, 3-8 after a straight-up win and 2-6 after two days off, but the Mavs are on ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-2-1 on Fridays and 4-1 on the highway against teams with a winning home record. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS after getting two days off, but otherwise on ATS runs of 20-6-1 against the Western Conference, 7-3 overall, 5-0 against the Southwest Division, 13-6-1 after an ATS win and 7-2 after a straight-up win.
The under is 5-2 in Dallas’ last seven after a straight-up win, but the over is on streaks of 12-4 against the Pacific Division, 4-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 after two days off for the Mavs. For the Lakers, the under is 13-5 in their last 18 after a spread-cover, 11-4 in their last 15 against the Western conference and 6-2 in their last eight against the Southwest Division, but the over has been the play in six of their last seven at home. In this rivalry, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 5-2 in the last seven matchups in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LAKERS and OVER
