THE SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Akron (2-8 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Bowling Green (5-5 SU and ATS)
Bowling Green will try and get itself one step closer to bowl-eligibility when it welcomes Akron to Doyt L. Perry Stadium for a Mid-American Conference East Division matchup.
The Falcons have rallied to win four of their last five (3-2 ATS) after opening the season 1-4 (2-3 ATS). All four wins have come on the highway, including a 35-14 victory at Miami (Ohio) a week ago tonight, and they cashed as four-point road favorites. Bowling Green, which has scored 30 points or more in five of its last six contests, averages 25.4 points per game and has the nation’s fourth-best passing attack (324.7 passing yards per game). QB Tyler Sheehan has thrown for 3,189 yards with 19 TDs and just six INTs, and his top target is All-American candidate WR Freddie Barnes, who leads the nation in receptions (117) and ranks second in receiving yards (1,285, 128.5 ypg) and TDs (12).
Akron has lost seven of its last eight games (2-6 ATS) and is coming off last Friday’s ugly 56-17 loss to Temple as a six-point home underdog. Contrary to Bowling Green, the Zips struggle on offense, managing to top 21 points just twice this season and scoring 17 or less in five of their last six games. Akron has lost all five of its road games (2-3 ATS) by an average of 17.2 ppg (31-13.8) while getting outgained by more than 175 yards per game (405.2-228.4). Additionally, the Zips produce just 52.4 rushing ypg (1.8 per carry) away from home while surrendering 215.6 rushing ypg (4.9 per carry).
The SU winner is 8-1 ATS in Akron’s last nine games (4-0 ATS last four) and 8-2 ATS in Bowling Green’s 10 games this year (4-0 ATS last four).
Bowling Green has taken each of the last two meetings in this rivalry both SU and ATS and it is 4-1-1 ATS in the last five. Last year, the Falcons won 37-33 as a one-point road favorite, and the last time these teams met in Bowling Green, the Falcons delivered a 44-20 beatdown as a 6½-point chalk. The Zips are just 1-4 ATS in the last five trips to Doyt L. Perry Stadium.
Akron is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 2-7 in MAC games, 1-4 in November, 2-5 on the road, 2-5 as a ‘dog and 0-4-1 on Friday. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine November games and 4-1 ATS in their last five Friday contests, but they are on negative pointspread runs of 4-17 at home, 2-14 as a home favorite, 2-8 at home against teams with losing road records and 2-5 after spread-cover.
The Zips have topped the total in 11 of their last 15 MAC games and six of their last seven November contests, but the under is on runs of 5-1 when Akron goes on the road and 3-1 when it comes off a straight-up loss. It’s been all “unders” for the Falcons lately, including 5-2 in November, 8-2 against teams with losing records and 4-0 after a SU or ATS win. Conversely, the “over” has been the play in each of the last three meetings in this rivarly.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOWLING GREEN
Eastern Michigan (0-10, 3-7 ATS) at Toledo (4-6 SU and ATS)
Eastern Michigan will try once again to get in the win column when it travels to the Glass Bowl for a Mid-American Conference West Division battle with the Rockets.
The Eagles went to Western Michigan on Saturday and suffered yet another double-digit loss, falling to Western Michigan 35-14 as a 13½-pont home underdog. Not only has Eastern Michigan lost eight of its 10 games by double figures, but five of the last six have been by 21 or more. The Eagles have had trouble on both sides of the ball, scoring 14 points or less six times and allowing 27 points or more in nine of the last 10. They’re 1-5 ATS in MAC games this year, all as an underdog.
In addition to losing all 10 games this season, Eastern Michigan has dropped 15 of its last 16, 19 of its last 21 and 25 of its last 29. The Eagles are 2-15 SU (7-10 ATS) on the road during this stretch, including an ongoing nine-game road losing skid (4-5 ATS).
Toledo’s season has unraveled in the last three weeks, losing three straight MAC games (0-3 ATS) to Temple (40-24 as a one-point home favorite), Miami of Ohio (31-24 as a five-point road chalk) and Central Michigan (56-28 as a 17-point road underdog). The Rockets have scored at least 24 points in eight of 10 games this season, but they’ve surrendered 30 points or more in nine of those contests. Toledo is 1-3 SU and ATS in its four home games (0-2 ATS as a home favorite), and its current three-game SU and ATS losing skid slump comes after 3-1 SU and ATS run. The winner has cashed in 12 straight Rockets games dating to last season.
Toledo has dominated this rivalry, winning two in a row and eight of the last nine, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven. The Rockets hosted Eastern Michigan in 2007 and rolled 52-28 as a 7½-point chalk, then visited the Eagles last season and cruised 41-17 as a two-point road underdog, ending a 6-0 ATS run by the favorite in this rivalry.
Eastern Michigan’s ATS skids include 12-23 overall (2-6 last eight), 1-5 in conference, 1-7 on artificial turf, 3-9 versus teams with a losing record and 1-4 as an underdog of more than 10 points. Toledo is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall (all in MAC play), 2-5 in November and 0-6 as a favorite of more than 10 points, but the Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in their last seven after an outright defeat.
The Eagles have topped the total in four straight road games (all as a double-digit underdog) and six of eight in November, and the Rockets are on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 15-7 at home, 9-2 as a favorite and 8-1 as a home favorite. However, three of the last four Toledo-Eastern Michigan clashes have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TOLEDO and OVER
(6) Boise State (10-0 SU, 7-2 ATS) at Utah State (3-7 SU, 6-3 ATS)
The Broncos look to remain undefeated and in the BCS Bowl hunt when they make their final road trip of the season, this one to Logan, Utah, to face Utah State in a Western Athletic Conference showdown.
With three games left in the season, Boise State is a half-game behind Nevada atop the WAC standings and the two are scheduled to clash on the “Smurf Turf” in Idaho a week from tonight. The Broncos stayed perfect with Saturday’s 63-25 destruction of conference and instate rival Idaho, cashing as a 32-point home favorite. Boise has scored 28 points or more in each of their last nine games, and they lead the nation in scoring at 43.6 points a game, scoring 45 or more six times. Sophomore QB Kellen Moore has put himself into Heisman Trophy consideration by completing 67.4 percent of his throws for 2,558 yards with an NCAA-best 32 TDs against just three INTs. Last week, Moore went 22-for-32 for 299 yards with five TDs and no picks.
Utah State is just 2-5 (5-2 ATS) in its last seven games, but it easily beat lowly San Jose State on Saturday, rolling 24-9 as a 12½-point favorite. The Aggies have scored 23 points or more in each of their last five games, but their defense is giving up an average of 30.7 points and a whopping 435 yards per game. Utah State is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in WAC home games, with the lone loss being a 35-32 setback to Nevada as an 8½-point home underdog on Oct. 17.
Boise State has won eight straight in this rivalry (6-0-2 ATS) and is averaging 54 ppg in the last six meetings, scoring at least 45 points in all six. Last year, the Broncos rolled 49-14 at home but pushed as a 35-point favorite, but in 2007 they went to Utah State and delivered a 52-0 drubbing as a 24½-point favorite. Boise is 5-0 ATS has cashed in five straight trips to Logan and is 8-1-2 ATS in the last 11 clashes overall.
Boise is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 15-4-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 30-10-2 in November, 11-4 on Friday, 8-3-1 when laying 20 points or more and 34-15-1 following a spread-cover. Meanwhile, the Aggies have also been solid at the betting window, currently on runs of 11-2-1 overall, 8-0 at home, 8-2-1 in WAC games, 6-1-1 in November, 8-0-1 as an underdog, 3-0-1 on Fridays and 5-0-1 against winning teams.
For the Broncos, the over is on streaks of 6-1 in WAC games, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 on Friday and 4-0 in November. Utah State is on “under” runs of 5-1-1 at home, 5-2 in WAC action and 4-1 after a straight-up win. In this series, the “over” is 4-1 in the last five clashes, with five of the last six featuring 59 points or more.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOISE STATE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Syracuse (3-0 SU and ATS) vs. (6) North Carolina (4-0, 2-2 ATS)
(at New York)
North Carolina shoots for its 11th consecutive victory overall and fifth in a row to begin this season when it battles Syracuse in the 2K Sports Classic championship game at Madison Square Garden.
The Tar Heels built up a huge lead against Ohio State in Thursday’s semifinal contest and withstood a furious Buckeyes rally, holding on for a 77-73 victory as a two-point favorite. Going back to their 89-72 victory over Michigan State in the national championship game back in April, North Carolina has scored 89, 88, 89, 88 and 77 points in its last five games, while allowing 72 or more in four of those contests. Since losing to Florida State in the semifinals of the ACC tournament last March, the Heels have posted 10 straight wins (8-2 ATS), with the first nine being double-digit blowouts prior to last night.
Since the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, Roy Williams’ squad is 81-8 SU. And despite losing a ton of talent to the NBA, the defending champs are shooting well over 50 percent from the field through their first four games while holding the opposition to less than 40 percent shooting.
The Orange suffered a stunning preseason loss to Division II Le Moyne three weeks, ago but in games that have counted, Jim Boeheim’s club has posted three straight blowout victories. After crushing Albany (75-43 as a 20-point home favorite) and Robert Morris (100-60 as an 18½-point home chalk), the Orange clobbered 13th-ranked Cal 95-73 in a pick-em contest in Thursday’s other semifinal at The Garden.
Syracuse is on ATS runs of 12-2 overall, 6-1 in non-conference action, 6-2 at neutral sites and 5-0 when coming off a victory over more than 20 points. UNC also possesses nothing but positive pointspread streaks, including 8-2 overall, 38-12 in non-conference play, 7-0 at neutral sites (going back to last year’s NCAA Tournament run) and 7-0 against teams with a winning record.
The Orange are on “over” runs of 8-1 overall, 14-3 at neutral sites and 21-7 after a SU win. Conversely, the under is 5-3 in the Tar Heels’ last eight at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Houston (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) at Atlanta (10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS)
The high-flying Hawks, winners of six in a row SU and ATS, close out a four-game homestand with a visit from the Rockets at Philips Arena.
Atlanta has beaten New Orleans, Portland and Miami to start its current stint in front of the home fans, and crushed the Heat 105-90 as a 7½-point favorite on Wednesday. Joe Johnson had 30 points while Al Horford and Josh Smith had 16 points apiece to pace the Hawks. Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS at home, averaging 111.7 points a game and shooting 47.7 percent from the floor.
Houston has alternated wins and losses in its last nine games (6-3 ATS), but went to Minnesota on Wednesday and beat the Timberwolves 97-84 as a six-point road favorite. Luis Scola led the way with 20 points and 16 rebounds while Trevor Ariza chipped in with 18 points.
The Rockets have won three of the last four in this series (4-0 ATS) and six of the last nine (7-2 ATS). The home team has taken nine of the last 10 meetings, including both games last season. Atlanta won 103-100 at home but failed as a 5½-point chalk while Houston won the rematch in Texas, 92-84 as a five-point favorite.
The SU winner is 11-1 ATS in each team’s 12 games this year.
Houston is just 1-5 ATS in its last six Friday games but it is otherwise on pointspread runs of 8-3 overall, 5-1 after one day off, 22-6 against Southeast Division teams and 5-1 as an underdog. Atlanta is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 20-7-2 at home, 11-1-1 overall, 13-2-1 against Western Conference teams, 21-6-1 as a chalk and 21-7-1 after a spread-cover.
The Rockets have stayed below the posted total in four of their last five overall, but they’ve topped the total in four of five on Friday and five of six as an underdog. The Hawks are on “over” streaks of 7-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 16-5 as a favorite and 4-0 as a home chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings and 6-2 in the last eight matchups in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Orlando (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) at Boston (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS)
The Magic head to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston looking for their fourth straight win as they take on the Celtics in a battle of Eastern Conference heavyweights.
The Magic have won three straight (2-1 ATS), all at home, including Wednesday’s 108-94 win over the Thunder, cashing as 12-point favorites. Vince Carter had 18 points while Rashard Lewis finished just shy of a triple-double with 17 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists.
Boston is just 3-3 in its last six games and 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall. The Celtics got double-digit scoring from all five starters on Wednesday, beating Golden State 109-95 but coming up just short as a 16-point home favorite.
These teams had a seven-game war in the Eastern Conference semifinals back in May with Orlando prevailing (4-3 SU and ATS) 101-82 in Game 7 back in Boston, cashing in as a 2 ½-point underdog. The Magic won two of the four games in Boston, taking Games 1 and 7 both SU and ATS, but they’re still just 5-14 ATS in the last 19 visits to Beantown. The home team is 25-12 ATS in the last 37 series clashes (playoffs included).
Orlando is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a straight-up win, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 38-17-1 as an underdog, 12-5 against Eastern Conference teams, 6-0 against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 on Friday. The Celtics are on ATS slides of 1-6 overall (all as a favorite), 1-4 at home, 1-4 after a non-cover and 2-5 at home against teams with winning road records.
The Magic are on “under” streaks of 6-1 on the road and 6-2 against Atlantic Division squads. Boston is on several “under” streaks, including 8-3 against the Eastern Conference, 11-5 overall, and 6-0 against Southeast Division teams, but the “over” is 28-13-1 in the Celtics’ last 42 road games. Finally, the last four playoff games between these teams back in the spring stayed low, and the under is also 4-1 in the Magic’s last five trips to Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
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