StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets
CBB | CHICAGO ST at ARIZONA ST
Play On – Favorites of 10 or more points (ARIZONA ST) good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season
39-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units )
CBB | COLL OF CHARLESTON at FURMAN
Play On – Any team (COLL OF CHARLESTON) team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses
25-10 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 20.4 units )
CBB | W CAROLINA at MISSISSIPPI ST
Play On – Favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (MISSISSIPPI ST) with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season
56-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.1% | 28.5 units )
CBB | CHICAGO ST at ARIZONA ST
Play On – Favorites of 10 or more points (ARIZONA ST) good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season
39-14 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.6% | 23.6 units )
CBB | COLL OF CHARLESTON at FURMAN
Play On – Any team (COLL OF CHARLESTON) team from a mid-major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak conference, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 4 or more straight losses
25-10 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 20.4 units )
CBB | W CAROLINA at MISSISSIPPI ST
Play On – Favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (MISSISSIPPI ST) with 3+ more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season
56-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.1% | 28.5 units )
[h=1]Today's NHL Picks[/h] [h=2]Pittsburgh at Toronto[/h] The Penguins head to Toronto tonight to face a Maple Leafs team that is 4-0 in its last 4 home games. Toronto is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130). Here are all of today's NHL picks.
| FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 14 Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 51-52: New Jersey at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.140; Washington 12.692 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-160); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Over |
| Game 53-54: Columbus at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 9.793; Philadelphia 12.663 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 3; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A |
| Game 55-56: Pittsburgh at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.664; Toronto 12.578 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-150); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Over |
| Game 57-58: Chicago at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.144; Detroit 12.532 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-125); 5 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over |
| Game 59-60: NY Islanders at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.854; Florida 11.752 Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-140); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida (+120); Over |
| Game 61-62: Arizona at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 10.368; Vancouver 12.678 Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 2 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-200); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-200); Under |
Hi Folks,
Great night with wins by Minnesota and Ottawa in NHL action and Sacramento and Brooklyn in the NBA.
We have 3 more games on tap tonight. Didn't I tell you it was going to substantially pickup?
Special note on NBA Plays:
In the NBA we will buy 2 points on a Tier 3 play IF they would not have covered the spread with the additional 2 points in either of the previous 2 Tiers. Any questions you have, you need to be sure and ask now.
November NBASet #88
Denver +3.5 @BetOnline over Indiana
7:00 pm EST Start
Tier 1 of 3
Profit = $50
November NBASet #86
Philadelphia+17 @5Dimes over Houston
8:00 pm EST Start
Tier 2 of 3
Profit = $50
November NHLSet #87
Arizona +185 @BetOline over Vancouver
10:00 pm EST Start
Tier 2 of 3
Profit = $50
(Always wait for the email before going to next Tier as we recalculate each Set's chances after a loss. This is to protect you and your bankroll.)
The 2 and 3 Tiered Progression Play.
Profit of $100 means you should risk the amount that is needed to Win $100 on Tier 1.
Tier 2, if we lose Tier 1 will be losses from Tier 1 plus your Profit......That will be your Win amount for Tier 2.
Tier 3, if we lose Tier 2 will be losses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 plus your Profit......That will be your Win amount for Tier 3.
Our new year starts in June and ends with the conclusion of the NHL and NBA seasons each year.
Here is current month's record....
November is 9-1 +$225 (+4.50% ROI)
October is 4-3-1 -$304 (-6.08% ROI)
September is 15-1 +$472 (+9.44% ROI)
August was 23-3 +$1390 (+27.8% ROI)
July was 13-2 +$650 (+13% ROI)
June was 9-1 +$625 (+12.5% ROI)
Good Luck and Remember Money Management
World Wide Sports
Great night with wins by Minnesota and Ottawa in NHL action and Sacramento and Brooklyn in the NBA.
We have 3 more games on tap tonight. Didn't I tell you it was going to substantially pickup?
Special note on NBA Plays:
In the NBA we will buy 2 points on a Tier 3 play IF they would not have covered the spread with the additional 2 points in either of the previous 2 Tiers. Any questions you have, you need to be sure and ask now.
November NBASet #88
Denver +3.5 @BetOnline over Indiana
7:00 pm EST Start
Tier 1 of 3
Profit = $50
November NBASet #86
Philadelphia+17 @5Dimes over Houston
8:00 pm EST Start
Tier 2 of 3
Profit = $50
November NHLSet #87
Arizona +185 @BetOline over Vancouver
10:00 pm EST Start
Tier 2 of 3
Profit = $50
(Always wait for the email before going to next Tier as we recalculate each Set's chances after a loss. This is to protect you and your bankroll.)
The 2 and 3 Tiered Progression Play.
Profit of $100 means you should risk the amount that is needed to Win $100 on Tier 1.
Tier 2, if we lose Tier 1 will be losses from Tier 1 plus your Profit......That will be your Win amount for Tier 2.
Tier 3, if we lose Tier 2 will be losses from Tier 1 and Tier 2 plus your Profit......That will be your Win amount for Tier 3.
Our new year starts in June and ends with the conclusion of the NHL and NBA seasons each year.
As for the new members that sign up during the month, your amount will be calculated from sign up date. Afterwards all our members will be on the same page that way.
Here is current month's record....
November is 9-1 +$225 (+4.50% ROI)
October is 4-3-1 -$304 (-6.08% ROI)
September is 15-1 +$472 (+9.44% ROI)
August was 23-3 +$1390 (+27.8% ROI)
July was 13-2 +$650 (+13% ROI)
June was 9-1 +$625 (+12.5% ROI)
Good Luck and Remember Money Management
World Wide Sports
GC: NBA Play
On Friday night the NBA Power Angle play is on the NY. Knicks. Game 708 at 7:35 eastern. The Knicks have struggled of late but the losing streak should come to an end tonight against the Utah Jazz. The Knicks have covered 18 straight in the series and 9 straight wins and covers against them here at the Garden. The Jazz struggle on the road in Non conference games and are in a tough spot here tonight. Look for the Knicks to bounce back and get their first spread win at home. On Friday A powerful 4 game are takes center stage led by a pair of Opening games NCAAB Power angles plays, a 5* NBA Undefeated Blowout system that dates to 1995 and another Solid Late season College Football Super system on ESPN. Football continues to be ranked #1 at several leader boards and is a staggering 40 games over .500 for the season after last nights SWEEP. Jump on Now and start the weekend off big. For the Bonus Play. Take the NY. Knicks. GC
T.G.I.F Hard wood card has a 5* Perfect System Blowout with an Undefeated angle and 2 Opening Night College Hoops Power plays. In NCAAF Action its another Late season System Side. Football Continues to rank #1 at 41 games over .500 After Thursday Sweep. NBA Power Angle Play below.On Friday night the NBA Power Angle play is on the NY. Knicks. Game 708 at 7:35 eastern. The Knicks have struggled of late but the losing streak should come to an end tonight against the Utah Jazz. The Knicks have covered 18 straight in the series and 9 straight wins and covers against them here at the Garden. The Jazz struggle on the road in Non conference games and are in a tough spot here tonight. Look for the Knicks to bounce back and get their first spread win at home. On Friday A powerful 4 game are takes center stage led by a pair of Opening games NCAAB Power angles plays, a 5* NBA Undefeated Blowout system that dates to 1995 and another Solid Late season College Football Super system on ESPN. Football continues to be ranked #1 at several leader boards and is a staggering 40 games over .500 for the season after last nights SWEEP. Jump on Now and start the weekend off big. For the Bonus Play. Take the NY. Knicks. GC
Dr. Bob :
I don't anticipate any more Best Bets. I have a couple of Strong Opinions listed below and the analysis of those is at the bottom of the email. I may add some more Strong Opinions as I work on my Free Analysis tonight.
Best Bets
(313) **Southern Miss (+8) 2-Stars at +7 or more (Thursday)
(336) ***Tennessee (-7 at -115) 3-Stars at -9 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -10, 1-Star at -11
(352) **Arkansas State (-13 ½) 2-Star at -14 or less only
(370) **Florida (-6 ½) 2-Stars at -7 or less only
(372) ***Miami-Florida (+3 at -120) 3-Stars at -1 or better
(387-388) **UNDER (57) Missouri at Texas A&M 2-Stars Under 55 or higher
(396) ***Alabama (-7 at -115) 3-Stars at -9 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -10
(395-396) *OVER (52) Miss State at Alabama 1-Star Over 54 or less
Strong Opinions (so far)
(321-322) Strong Opinion – UNDER (46 ½) Wake Forest at NC State Under 45 or higher
(344) Strong Opinion – Air Force (-2 ½) Strong Opinion at -3 or less
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
**Southern Miss (+8) 24 UTSA 23
Thu Nov-13-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 313 Over/Under 46.0
UTSA was supposed to challenge for the CUSA title this season but the defensive solid Roadrunners (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) have been let down by a horrible offense that has averaged only 16.9 points on 283 yards at 4.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Southern Miss was expected to be bad, as they are, but the Eagles are actually not as bad as UTSA is and should not be getting as many points as they are. The Southern Miss offense is actually not so bad, as the Eagles have been just 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack) and that unit is a bit better at 0.3 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Nick Mullens expected back tonight after missing nearly 3 games. While UTSA’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than the Southern Miss offense the match up works well for the pass-heavy Eagles’ attack, as UTSA’s defensive strength is defending the run (0.6 yprp better than average) while the Roadrunners are 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average (6.2 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average team). Southern Miss averages 43 pass plays per game, so they’ll take advantage of UTSA’s defensive weakness while avoiding running into the strength of the defense. My math model takes those matchups into account and projects 396 yards at 5.4 yards per play for the Eagles tonight.
The Southern Miss defense is why the Eagles are a bad team, as that unit has surrendered 36.8 points per game on 454 yards at 6.7 yppl while facing teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. However, the UTSA offense is considerably worse, as the Roadrunners are 1.6 yppl worse than average (details above). UTSA is 0.3 yppl worse with Austin Robinson at quarterback and the Roadrunners have not been able to take advantage of really bad defensive teams, as they scored an average of just 4.5 points (not a typo) against New Mexico and UTEP, the two worst defensive teams that they’ve faced this season. Robinson was the quarterback when the Roadrunners were shutout as a 14 point home favorite against UTEP a few weeks ago and they scored just 7 points in their subsequent game at Rice last Saturday with Robinson and Carter splitting quarterback duties. Robinson has been named the starter tonight and my math model projects just 313 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Roadrunners in this game.
Southern Miss is clearly as better team from the line of scrimmage, as the Eagles rate at 1.3 yppl worse than average while UTSA is 1.6 yppl worse than average overall (-1.9 yppl with Robinson at quarterback) and Southern Miss is also projected to run more plays from scrimmage. UTSA has a 1.7 points edge in special teams and a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers but Southern Miss is still the better overall team and the Eagles have a favorable matchup with their pass-heavy offense going up against a UTSA defense that is much worse defending the pass than they are defending the run. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6 points.
**FLORIDA (-6 ½) 38 South Carolina 24
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 370 Over/Under 58.5
Florida has regained their swagger a bit with their 38-20 beat down of rival Georgia and their subsequent 34-10 win at Vanderbilt last week. The suddenly enthusiastic Gators should continue their recent run of success with a win over the staggering Gamecocks, who have lost 4 out of their last 5 games. A bye week could restore a bit of energy to the team but a bye week is not going to solve South Carolina’s lack of talent on defense, a unit that has allowed 6.6 yards per rushing play and 7.1 yards per pass play to FBS opponents. The Gamecocks’ defense has allowed an atrocious 6.8 yards per play or more in 7 of their 8 games against FBS foes, including Vanderbilt and Tennessee, who are not known for their offense. Florida is not known for their offense either but the Gators’ attack has improved with Treon Harris as the starting quarterback the last two games. Florida’s offense is just average based on season stats (adjusted for opposing defenses) but the Gators have averaged 6.6 yards per play in two games with Harris at quarterback against Georgia and Vanderbilt defensive units that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. I do not that the Florida is actually 1.3 yppl better than average, as they 7.2 yppl they gained against Georgia is likely a case of variance, as the Bulldogs were not ready for the Gators’ game plan in Harris’ first start, but Florida was 0.3 yppl better than average last week against Vanderbilt and I actually rate that unit at 0.3 yppl better than average heading into this game, which is a 0.3 yppl upgrade over their season rating. South Carolina’s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and my math model projects 477 yards at 7.0 yppl for the Gators in this game with a projection of over 300 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per run.
While Florida is controlling the ball with their rushing attack the Gators’ solid defense, which is 0.9 yppl better than average, should slow down a very good Gamecocks’ attack that is 1.2 yppl better than average. South Carolina’s offense does have a 0.3 yppl advantage (although not as much on the road) and my math model projects 400 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Gamecocks in this game. Florida’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is 0.8 yppl and the math projects a 77 yards edge from the line of scrimmage while the Gators have a 2.5 points advantage in special teams and a 2.5 points advantage in projected turnovers. This should be a double-digit win by the Gators and my math model gives Florida a very profitable 58.2% chance of covering at -6 ½ points and a still very profitable 55.9% at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (Strong Opinion at higher than -7).
**ARKANSAS STATE (-13 ½) 40 Appalachian State 19
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 352 Over/Under 65.0
Appalachian State is a bit of a bully that beats up on bad teams but doesn’t compete well against better teams. The Mountaineers have wins of 66-0 over Campbell (a team that is about 50 points worse than an average FBS team), a 53-14 win over Troy and a 44-0 win over Georgia State but they’ve also lost at home to Liberty by giving up 55 points and have been beaten by 38 points at Michigan, by 20 points at Georgia Southern, and by 26 points at home by South Alabama. Arkansas State is actually the best team that Appalachian State will face this season and the Mountaineers’ 3 game winning streak (all against bad teams of course) should come to an ugly end today. In fact, that winning streak sets up Appalachian State in a very rare 2-41 ATS letdown situation that has only occurred one other time this season (a 27 point loss by North Carolina at Miami that I cashed in on). Arkansas State, meanwhile, is 7-2 ATS and the Red Wolves have made a habit of dominating bad teams (they’re a bully too) with an average margin of victory of 26.8 points in 5 games as a favorite of more than 7 points with an average line of -12 points in those games. This game is not so much about line value, although my math model does give Arkansas State a 53.5% chance of covering at -14 points based solely on the math, but rather than 41-2 ATS situation going against Appalachian State and a 155-61-2 ATS home momentum situation that applies to Arkansas State. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less (a Strong Opinion at more than -14).
***ALABAMA (-7 at -115) 38 Mississippi State 21
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 396 Over/Under 52.0
*OVER (52)
I’m guessing the line on this game has raised some eyebrows among fans. How can an unbeaten and #1 ranked team be such a big underdog? Surely, taking an unbeaten and top ranked team getting a touchdown or more must be a good bet, isn’t it? In the immortal words of coach Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.” Unbeaten teams, 7-0 or better, are just 4-22 ATS as conference road underdogs if they played the previous week and are facing a team that is not also unbeaten and is coming off a win (it’s 1-1 if home team is off a loss). Teams in that situation have not covered the spread since Alabama covered as a 14 point dog against Peyton Manning and Tennessee back in 1996. Since then it’s 0-12 ATS and I’m sure a lot of those unbeaten dogs were higher ranked than their less than perfect host. By the way, underdogs from 2 ½ to 13 ½ points in that situation are 0-17 ATS since 1993. That’s not the reason I like Alabama here. In fact, I only just looked up how unbeaten road dogs do out of curiosity as I was set to write up this game, which is days after I released Alabama to my subscribers.
I like Alabama here because they’re the best team in the nation and will have a chip on their shoulder facing a team ranked ahead of them. It’s not that Mississippi State is not a very good team, because they are. They’re just not nearly as good as Alabama is and the Bulldogs are not even the best team in their own state (I have Ole’ Miss rated a bit higher). Mississippi State is good because they have a very balanced and potent offense that has averaged 7.2 yards per play when starting quarterback Dak Prescott is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). The Miss State defense, however, has allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team, although I do rate that unit at 0.5 yppl better than average after adjusting for the variance in giving up 7.1 yards per play to UAB in week 2. That unit simply isn’t good enough to count the Bulldogs among the elite teams and Alabama’s offense should thrive in this game.
The Crimson Tide attack has averaged 6.8 yppl with quarterback Blake Sims in the game (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), which is just 0.1 yppl worse than the Mississippi State offense. Of course, Alabama more than makes up for that very slight disadvantage with a defense that’s yielded just 4.4 yppl to a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit. That’s a difference of 1.0 yppl between the two defensive units and is the main reason why Alabama is the superior team. I also took note of the fact that Dak Prescott seems to play relatively better against better defensive teams and a regression equation projecting his passing as a function of the level of the opposing pass defense reveals a Prescott would play 0.4 yards per pass play better, on a relative basis, against a team as good as Alabama is in pass defense, which adds a bit to the Bulldogs’ offensive projection in this game.
The math model, even with a positive adjustment for Prescott playing relatively better against good defensive teams, projects Mississippi State to gain 375 yards at 5.8 yards per play, which would mark the first time since week 1 against West Virginia that Bama would allow more than 4.8 yards per play. However, Alabama’s efficient attack is projected to gain 559 yards at 7.1 yards per play against Mississippi State defense that rates about the same as the average defensive that the Crimson Tide have faced this season. Alabama is projected to average more yards than they average because the Tide are expected to have one more possession than they normally do because of Mississippi State’s faster than average tempo on offense, which means more possessions for both teams. Basically, Alabama’s offense should move the ball as well as they normally do and top their 35 point average while Mississippi State should be slowed by an elite Alabama defense. Overall the math favors Alabama by 16 ½ points in this game and projects a lot more points than expected by the odds makers, which have the total at 52 points (as of Friday morning). If Mississippi State covers the spread it’s because they score more points than expected so the Over works as a nice hedge in addition to being a good bet. I can’t lose Alabama and the Over as long as the Tide score 31 points or more and they’ve scored 33 points or more in 6 of 9 games with 2 of the 3 games in which they didn’t score 33 points coming against elite defensive teams Ole’ Miss and LSU (the other was Arkansas). Mississippi State is far from an elite defensive team and as I mentioned earlier the Bulldogs’ defensive rating is the same as the average rating of Alabama’s opponents. It’s very likely that Bama scores more than 30 points and wins by double-digits. I’ll take Alabama in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 and I’ll take the Over (52) in a 1-Star Best Bet at 54 points or less.
***TENNESSEE (-7 at -115) 36 Kentucky 18
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 54.0
My math model would favor Tennessee by 11 ½ points in this game even without factoring in how much better the Volunteers’ offense is with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs replaced backup Nathan Peterman after a couple of series a few week ago against Alabama and was impressive in leading the Vols back from a 0-20 1st quarterback hole to a respectable 20-34 loss while posting solid stats against an elite Alabama defense (he averaged 5.5 yards per pass play and tallied 84 yards on 18 runs). I took Tennessee as a Best Bet as a dog at South Carolina and Dobbs led the Vols to a 45-42 overtime win with 7.5 yards per pass play and 166 rushing yards on 24 runs against a sub-par South Carolina defense. Dobbs was 3rd on the depth chart coming into this season perhaps partially based on what was considered poor play in 4 starts at the end of last season but he actually wasn’t bad at all last year, as he averaged 5.6 yards per play (passing and running combined) while facing a slate of good defensive teams that would allow just 5.3 yards per play to an average team. Dobbs’ passing numbers were 0.6 yards per pass play below average but he ran for 259 yards on 31 runs to make up for it. Dobbs still hasn’t established himself as a great passer, although he’s been 1.0 yppp better than average in two games this season (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB), but his career rating on 201 pass plays is average (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp) and that’s an upgrade from the team rating of -0.4 yppp and over former starter Justin Worley (-0.5 yppp). Dobbs’ running is what really adds to the offense, as he’s run for 250 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play in two games this season and has averaged 7.0 yprp in his career. The Tennessee running backs also become more effective running the read option with Dobbs since opposing defenses can no longer only focus on the backs with Dobbs to worry about. Kentucky can’t stop a good team, as the Wildcats have allowed an average of 301 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play to the 5 better than average running teams they’ve faced this season (Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Miss State, and Georgia). Overall Kentucky’s run defense has been 0.4 yprp worse than average but they’ve been 0.7 yprp worse than average against good running teams and Tennessee’s read option attack with Dobbs should move the ball on the ground with consistency in this game (6.2 yprp projected) while I project Dobbs to average a decent 6.0 yards per pass play using his career rating, which is lower than his pass rating in two games this season, but likely more accurate.
While the Tennessee offense is better with Dobbs at quarterback the Vols’ defense is underrated. Tennessee’s defensive numbers are a bit better than average at 25.0 points and 376 yards per game allowed at 5.5 yppl but those numbers become very good when you consider that the opposing offenses that they’ve faced would combine to average 35.3 points and 448 yards per game at 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Tennessee’s defensive numbers have also been skewed by allowing big passing numbers to elite offensive teams Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina, who combined for 9.5 yards per pass play against the Vols. However, Tennessee has yielded 5.1 yppp or less in their other 6 games, including games against Ole’ Miss and Georgia and they’ll surely be able to shut down a sub-par Kentucky pass attack that’s averaged only 5.3 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average team). The Wildcats do have a slightly better than average rushing attack (5.0 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) but Tennessee’s run defense is better (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yprp against an average team) and the ‘Cats are projected to run for just 4.7 yprp and throw for only 4.4 yppp in this game. That won’t be enough to keep up with a Tennessee attack that should have an easy time moving the chains with their effective ground attack and solid passing. Overall, the math projects 481 yards at 6.1 yppl for Tennessee and just 318 yards at 4.6 yppl for Kentucky, which is likely to produce a double-digit win. The fact that my math model favored Tennessee by 11 ½ points before adjusting for Dobbs at quarterback is comforting and I’ll take Tennessee in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ or less, for 2-Stars at -10 and for 1-Star up to -11 points.
**UNDER (57) – Missouri (+4) 24 TEXAS A&M 23
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 387 Over/Under 59.0
The only game Missouri has gone Over the total in since week 2 was that random over against Florida in which the Gators had 4 return touchdowns and I don’t see the Tigers’ under trend ending today. The Tigers’ defense has allowed 4.4 yards per play or less in all 5 of their SEC games, including against very good offensive teams South Carolina and Georgia. Texas A&M has been a good offensive team overall this season because of some great performances early in the season and the Aggies were surprisingly good on offense last week with backup Kyle Allen at quarterback, but the Aggies have been held to an average of just 22.6 points and 5.1 yards per play in their last 5 games and Allen, while good last week, has averaged only 6.2 yards on 100 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don’t expect him to have success against a very good Missouri pass defense that’s yielded just 4.8 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defensive team. The Tigers also stuff the run, allowing just 4.4 yards per rushing play despite facing teams that would average 5.7 yprp against an average team. Not only has A&M’s offense not been as good lately but the Aggies have also run their attack at a slower pace with Allen at quarterback the last two weeks, choosing to run less no huddle while running the ball more often. Texas A&M has averaged 2.73 plays per minute for the season but they’ve only run 2.41 plays per minute in the two games Allen has started at quarterback. I assumed a play per minute in between those two numbers and my math model projects only 391 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Aggies in this game.
The Missouri offense has completely disappeared since starting the season with promise. The Tigers were average offensively in their first 4 games against week defensive teams, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team, but the Tigers have averaged just 4.2 yppl in 5 games against SEC teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Tigers haven’t even played good SEC defenses, aside from Florida, who they averaged only 2.5 yppl against (but scored 28 points on returns) and they scored an average only 21.7 points against the mediocre and worse than average SEC defensive units of South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. Texas A&M’s defense looks bad statistically, as the Aggies have allowed 447 yards at 6.1 yards per play but they’ve also faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The A&M defense has actually done a good job against the 3 worse than average offensive teams that they’ve faced, allowing an average of just 10.7 points to Rice, SMU, and UL Monroe. Missouri’s attack isn’t as bad as that of SMU and UL Monroe, but Rice actually has a better offense than Missouri and managed just 10 points against the Aggies. My math model uses all of Missouri’s games rather than just their bad offensive games in SEC play but still projects only 326 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
Overall the math model favors Texas A&M by just 1 ½ points with a total of 46.2 points and the odds makers continue to put too high of a total of Missouri games, which is why they’ve gone under 6 of 7 times since week 3 (and should have gone under in all 7). Texas A&M is not as good offensively with Allen at quarterback and this game would be projected to go well under the total even if he was as good as former starter Kenny Hill. A&M has only faced two defensive teams in Missouri’s class (Ole’ Miss and Alabama) and they were held to an average of 10 points in those games, so I don’t see Allen or Hill if he plays, having a lot of success. Missouri hasn’t had a good offensive game since September, so it’s doubtful either team will top the national average of 27.7 points. I’ll go UNDER 55 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and I’ll call for the mini upset since A&M applies to a negative 46-109-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s huge upset win at Auburn.
***MIAMI-FLORIDA (+3 at -120) 37 Florida State 27
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 372 Over/Under 62.0
I’ve been anticipating this game for some time and while I’ve made a good profit the last month backing Miami in blowout wins over Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and North Carolina but I actually wish they hadn’t been so impressive since we would have gotten more points than we are. The casual fan might wonder how the #3 team in the nation would be only a 2 ½ or 3 point favorite against an unranked team but public perception is the only reason that Florida State is favored at all as the odds makers surely know that Miami is the better team.
Miami opened the season with a 13-31 loss at Louisville with a freshman quarterback that wasn’t quite prepared at the time given that he was slotted as the 3rd or 4th string quarterback. An injury to the Hurricanes’ starting quarterback and a suspension of backup Olsen put frosh Brad Kaaya at the controls in that opener against a dominating defense with a limited and conservative playbook that hindered Kaaya’s chances to succeed. After a 41-7 win over lowly Florida A&M the coaching staff finally took off the training wheels and expanded the playbook by allowing Kaaya to throw downfield more, which also allowed the rushing attack to blossom since opposing defenses could no longer simply concentrate on stopping the running of stud Duke Johnson and the other gifted Miami running backs. For the season Miami has averaged 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack and that attack has been 2.0 yards per play better than average since week 3 (7.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) with Kaaya averaging 8.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and Duke Johnson and company averaging 234 yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team). I have plenty of respect for Florida State’s offense but the Seminoles’ defense is barely better than average, having allowed 5.3 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Miami should have little trouble moving the ball I this game and my math model projects 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for the Canes in this game.
While Miami moving the ball well is highly likely the real battle will be between Jameis Winston and the Miami defense, which is vastly underrated. Miami has allowed just 4.8 yards per play this season to a collection of FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida State’s offense has been 1.5 yppl better than average with Winston at quarterback (he missed the Clemson game) and I was impressive by how the Seminoles’ offense stepped up their level of play in the 2nd half of their come from behind win at Louisville against a very good Cardinals’ defense. Florida State does have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Miami’s defense and my math model projects 408 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, but it occurred to me that perhaps Winston is actually relatively better against better defensive teams. I ran a regression of Winston’s yards per pass play number in each game as a function of the strength of the opposing pass defense. The slope of that equation is just 0.18, which means that for every yard per pass play better the opposing defense is Winston has been only 0.18 yppp worse. So, there has been very little correlation this season between the strength of opposing defense and Winston’s performance, although that equation was skewed a lot by the good performance against the only really good pass defense he faced. With that being the case I decided to include last year and the slope of the equation including last year’s games is 0.64, which still means that he’s relatively better against good defensive teams. There is enough evidence with 671 pass plays over 2 years that Winston is likely to perform better than my math would project against a good pass defense (and worse than projected against a bad pass defense) and I applied that to my math projection on this game. The result is that Winston would play 0.63 yppp better than projected, which equates to 2.7 points. However, even with the assumption that Winston will continue his pattern of playing relatively better against good defensive teams I still only project 434 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, which is well below the projection of 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for Miami’s potent offense against Florida State’s mediocre defense.
Miami is not only clearly the better team but the Hurricanes apply to a very good 72-22-3 ATS home dog revenge off a bye angle while unbeaten teams (7-0 or better) with less than dominating defensive units are at risk of an upset on the road. In fact, 7-0 or better teams are just 11-36-1 ATS on the road with no revenge if they allow 13 points or more per game on defense and are facing a team on a winning streak (2 or more games). Last year, it was Baylor -9 ½ losing 17-49 at Oklahoma State. In 2011 it was Oklahoma State -27 losing 31-37 at Iowa State. Not only do those unbeaten teams not cover but they have a losing record straight up. Florida State has a great offense that may well indeed rise to the occasion against a good Miami defense but the Seminoles’ defense is not likely to have success defending a well-balanced and potent Hurricanes attack and a win by Miami would not be an upset at all. In fact, I’d be surprised if Florida State has a chance to win late in the 4th quarter (assuming they don’t get lucky with turnovers). I should be making this a 4-Star Best Bet based on the combination of line value and the supporting situations but I’ll play it a bit conservatively and I’ll take Miami-Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars up to -2 ½ points.
Strong Opinion – AIR FORCE (-2 ½) 28 Nevada 20
Both of these teams have been playing well lately, with Nevada winning and covering the spread in each of their last 3 games and Air Force winning their last 3 and covering in their previous 2 games. I expect Air Force to continue their steak, as the Falcons apply to a 165-73-2 ATS home momentum situation while Nevada applies to a negative 29-72 ATS road letdown situation that is based on the recent success of the Wolf Pack. My math model favors Air Force by 3 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and the technical analysis is enough for me to consider Air Force a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion – UNDER (46 ½): NC STATE (-17) 27 Wake Forest 11
Wake Forest managed to score 20 points on just 133 total yards against Clemson last week to go over the total for just the second time all season but assuming there will not be a repeat of randomness I expect the Demon Deacons’ strong under trend to continue (6-1 UNDER prior to last week). NC State has also gone under the total a lot recently (4 of 5), as their attack has stalled (just 15.8 points per game in their last 5 games after averaging 40 points through 4 games). NC State is now just average offensively for the season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Wake Forest has a slightly better than average defense that’s allowed just 5.3 yppl and 25.7 points per game against teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. I would expect NC State to score around the national average of 27 points in regulation. The Wake Forest offense is the worst of any FBS team, as the Demon Deacons have averaged only 3.3 yards per play against a schedule of average defensive teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. NC State looks like a bad defensive team based on their 424 yards at 6.0 yards per play allowed but the Wolfpack are actually slightly better than average defensively since they’ve faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl. Wake Forest is projected to gain just 199 total yard at 3.0 yppl in this game and they aren’t likely to have too many scoring chances. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 45 points or higher.
I don't anticipate any more Best Bets. I have a couple of Strong Opinions listed below and the analysis of those is at the bottom of the email. I may add some more Strong Opinions as I work on my Free Analysis tonight.
Best Bets
(313) **Southern Miss (+8) 2-Stars at +7 or more (Thursday)
(336) ***Tennessee (-7 at -115) 3-Stars at -9 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -10, 1-Star at -11
(352) **Arkansas State (-13 ½) 2-Star at -14 or less only
(370) **Florida (-6 ½) 2-Stars at -7 or less only
(372) ***Miami-Florida (+3 at -120) 3-Stars at -1 or better
(387-388) **UNDER (57) Missouri at Texas A&M 2-Stars Under 55 or higher
(396) ***Alabama (-7 at -115) 3-Stars at -9 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -10
(395-396) *OVER (52) Miss State at Alabama 1-Star Over 54 or less
Strong Opinions (so far)
(321-322) Strong Opinion – UNDER (46 ½) Wake Forest at NC State Under 45 or higher
(344) Strong Opinion – Air Force (-2 ½) Strong Opinion at -3 or less
College Football Analysis by Dr. Bob
Note: The lines quoted are the consensus line at the time each game was released to my subscribers on my Best Bets release page. The lines have moved so make sure to pay attention to the line constraints at the end of each analysis for the current rating of each game.
**Southern Miss (+8) 24 UTSA 23
Thu Nov-13-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 313 Over/Under 46.0
UTSA was supposed to challenge for the CUSA title this season but the defensive solid Roadrunners (5.2 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) have been let down by a horrible offense that has averaged only 16.9 points on 283 yards at 4.3 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Southern Miss was expected to be bad, as they are, but the Eagles are actually not as bad as UTSA is and should not be getting as many points as they are. The Southern Miss offense is actually not so bad, as the Eagles have been just 0.4 yppl worse than average for the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack) and that unit is a bit better at 0.3 yppl worse than average with starting quarterback Nick Mullens expected back tonight after missing nearly 3 games. While UTSA’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than the Southern Miss offense the match up works well for the pass-heavy Eagles’ attack, as UTSA’s defensive strength is defending the run (0.6 yprp better than average) while the Roadrunners are 0.8 yards per pass play worse than average (6.2 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.4 yppp against an average team). Southern Miss averages 43 pass plays per game, so they’ll take advantage of UTSA’s defensive weakness while avoiding running into the strength of the defense. My math model takes those matchups into account and projects 396 yards at 5.4 yards per play for the Eagles tonight.
The Southern Miss defense is why the Eagles are a bad team, as that unit has surrendered 36.8 points per game on 454 yards at 6.7 yppl while facing teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average defense. However, the UTSA offense is considerably worse, as the Roadrunners are 1.6 yppl worse than average (details above). UTSA is 0.3 yppl worse with Austin Robinson at quarterback and the Roadrunners have not been able to take advantage of really bad defensive teams, as they scored an average of just 4.5 points (not a typo) against New Mexico and UTEP, the two worst defensive teams that they’ve faced this season. Robinson was the quarterback when the Roadrunners were shutout as a 14 point home favorite against UTEP a few weeks ago and they scored just 7 points in their subsequent game at Rice last Saturday with Robinson and Carter splitting quarterback duties. Robinson has been named the starter tonight and my math model projects just 313 yards at 4.8 yppl for the Roadrunners in this game.
Southern Miss is clearly as better team from the line of scrimmage, as the Eagles rate at 1.3 yppl worse than average while UTSA is 1.6 yppl worse than average overall (-1.9 yppl with Robinson at quarterback) and Southern Miss is also projected to run more plays from scrimmage. UTSA has a 1.7 points edge in special teams and a 1.7 points edge in projected turnovers but Southern Miss is still the better overall team and the Eagles have a favorable matchup with their pass-heavy offense going up against a UTSA defense that is much worse defending the pass than they are defending the run. I’ll take Southern Miss in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6 points.
**FLORIDA (-6 ½) 38 South Carolina 24
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 09:00 AM Pacific Rotation: 370 Over/Under 58.5
Florida has regained their swagger a bit with their 38-20 beat down of rival Georgia and their subsequent 34-10 win at Vanderbilt last week. The suddenly enthusiastic Gators should continue their recent run of success with a win over the staggering Gamecocks, who have lost 4 out of their last 5 games. A bye week could restore a bit of energy to the team but a bye week is not going to solve South Carolina’s lack of talent on defense, a unit that has allowed 6.6 yards per rushing play and 7.1 yards per pass play to FBS opponents. The Gamecocks’ defense has allowed an atrocious 6.8 yards per play or more in 7 of their 8 games against FBS foes, including Vanderbilt and Tennessee, who are not known for their offense. Florida is not known for their offense either but the Gators’ attack has improved with Treon Harris as the starting quarterback the last two games. Florida’s offense is just average based on season stats (adjusted for opposing defenses) but the Gators have averaged 6.6 yards per play in two games with Harris at quarterback against Georgia and Vanderbilt defensive units that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average attack. I do not that the Florida is actually 1.3 yppl better than average, as they 7.2 yppl they gained against Georgia is likely a case of variance, as the Bulldogs were not ready for the Gators’ game plan in Harris’ first start, but Florida was 0.3 yppl better than average last week against Vanderbilt and I actually rate that unit at 0.3 yppl better than average heading into this game, which is a 0.3 yppl upgrade over their season rating. South Carolina’s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and my math model projects 477 yards at 7.0 yppl for the Gators in this game with a projection of over 300 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per run.
While Florida is controlling the ball with their rushing attack the Gators’ solid defense, which is 0.9 yppl better than average, should slow down a very good Gamecocks’ attack that is 1.2 yppl better than average. South Carolina’s offense does have a 0.3 yppl advantage (although not as much on the road) and my math model projects 400 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Gamecocks in this game. Florida’s overall advantage from the line of scrimmage is 0.8 yppl and the math projects a 77 yards edge from the line of scrimmage while the Gators have a 2.5 points advantage in special teams and a 2.5 points advantage in projected turnovers. This should be a double-digit win by the Gators and my math model gives Florida a very profitable 58.2% chance of covering at -6 ½ points and a still very profitable 55.9% at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model). I’ll take Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (Strong Opinion at higher than -7).
**ARKANSAS STATE (-13 ½) 40 Appalachian State 19
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 352 Over/Under 65.0
Appalachian State is a bit of a bully that beats up on bad teams but doesn’t compete well against better teams. The Mountaineers have wins of 66-0 over Campbell (a team that is about 50 points worse than an average FBS team), a 53-14 win over Troy and a 44-0 win over Georgia State but they’ve also lost at home to Liberty by giving up 55 points and have been beaten by 38 points at Michigan, by 20 points at Georgia Southern, and by 26 points at home by South Alabama. Arkansas State is actually the best team that Appalachian State will face this season and the Mountaineers’ 3 game winning streak (all against bad teams of course) should come to an ugly end today. In fact, that winning streak sets up Appalachian State in a very rare 2-41 ATS letdown situation that has only occurred one other time this season (a 27 point loss by North Carolina at Miami that I cashed in on). Arkansas State, meanwhile, is 7-2 ATS and the Red Wolves have made a habit of dominating bad teams (they’re a bully too) with an average margin of victory of 26.8 points in 5 games as a favorite of more than 7 points with an average line of -12 points in those games. This game is not so much about line value, although my math model does give Arkansas State a 53.5% chance of covering at -14 points based solely on the math, but rather than 41-2 ATS situation going against Appalachian State and a 155-61-2 ATS home momentum situation that applies to Arkansas State. I’ll take Arkansas State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less (a Strong Opinion at more than -14).
***ALABAMA (-7 at -115) 38 Mississippi State 21
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 396 Over/Under 52.0
*OVER (52)
I’m guessing the line on this game has raised some eyebrows among fans. How can an unbeaten and #1 ranked team be such a big underdog? Surely, taking an unbeaten and top ranked team getting a touchdown or more must be a good bet, isn’t it? In the immortal words of coach Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend.” Unbeaten teams, 7-0 or better, are just 4-22 ATS as conference road underdogs if they played the previous week and are facing a team that is not also unbeaten and is coming off a win (it’s 1-1 if home team is off a loss). Teams in that situation have not covered the spread since Alabama covered as a 14 point dog against Peyton Manning and Tennessee back in 1996. Since then it’s 0-12 ATS and I’m sure a lot of those unbeaten dogs were higher ranked than their less than perfect host. By the way, underdogs from 2 ½ to 13 ½ points in that situation are 0-17 ATS since 1993. That’s not the reason I like Alabama here. In fact, I only just looked up how unbeaten road dogs do out of curiosity as I was set to write up this game, which is days after I released Alabama to my subscribers.
I like Alabama here because they’re the best team in the nation and will have a chip on their shoulder facing a team ranked ahead of them. It’s not that Mississippi State is not a very good team, because they are. They’re just not nearly as good as Alabama is and the Bulldogs are not even the best team in their own state (I have Ole’ Miss rated a bit higher). Mississippi State is good because they have a very balanced and potent offense that has averaged 7.2 yards per play when starting quarterback Dak Prescott is in the game (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). The Miss State defense, however, has allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average team, although I do rate that unit at 0.5 yppl better than average after adjusting for the variance in giving up 7.1 yards per play to UAB in week 2. That unit simply isn’t good enough to count the Bulldogs among the elite teams and Alabama’s offense should thrive in this game.
The Crimson Tide attack has averaged 6.8 yppl with quarterback Blake Sims in the game (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team), which is just 0.1 yppl worse than the Mississippi State offense. Of course, Alabama more than makes up for that very slight disadvantage with a defense that’s yielded just 4.4 yppl to a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average stop unit. That’s a difference of 1.0 yppl between the two defensive units and is the main reason why Alabama is the superior team. I also took note of the fact that Dak Prescott seems to play relatively better against better defensive teams and a regression equation projecting his passing as a function of the level of the opposing pass defense reveals a Prescott would play 0.4 yards per pass play better, on a relative basis, against a team as good as Alabama is in pass defense, which adds a bit to the Bulldogs’ offensive projection in this game.
The math model, even with a positive adjustment for Prescott playing relatively better against good defensive teams, projects Mississippi State to gain 375 yards at 5.8 yards per play, which would mark the first time since week 1 against West Virginia that Bama would allow more than 4.8 yards per play. However, Alabama’s efficient attack is projected to gain 559 yards at 7.1 yards per play against Mississippi State defense that rates about the same as the average defensive that the Crimson Tide have faced this season. Alabama is projected to average more yards than they average because the Tide are expected to have one more possession than they normally do because of Mississippi State’s faster than average tempo on offense, which means more possessions for both teams. Basically, Alabama’s offense should move the ball as well as they normally do and top their 35 point average while Mississippi State should be slowed by an elite Alabama defense. Overall the math favors Alabama by 16 ½ points in this game and projects a lot more points than expected by the odds makers, which have the total at 52 points (as of Friday morning). If Mississippi State covers the spread it’s because they score more points than expected so the Over works as a nice hedge in addition to being a good bet. I can’t lose Alabama and the Over as long as the Tide score 31 points or more and they’ve scored 33 points or more in 6 of 9 games with 2 of the 3 games in which they didn’t score 33 points coming against elite defensive teams Ole’ Miss and LSU (the other was Arkansas). Mississippi State is far from an elite defensive team and as I mentioned earlier the Bulldogs’ defensive rating is the same as the average rating of Alabama’s opponents. It’s very likely that Bama scores more than 30 points and wins by double-digits. I’ll take Alabama in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -10 and I’ll take the Over (52) in a 1-Star Best Bet at 54 points or less.
***TENNESSEE (-7 at -115) 36 Kentucky 18
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 01:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 336 Over/Under 54.0
My math model would favor Tennessee by 11 ½ points in this game even without factoring in how much better the Volunteers’ offense is with Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs replaced backup Nathan Peterman after a couple of series a few week ago against Alabama and was impressive in leading the Vols back from a 0-20 1st quarterback hole to a respectable 20-34 loss while posting solid stats against an elite Alabama defense (he averaged 5.5 yards per pass play and tallied 84 yards on 18 runs). I took Tennessee as a Best Bet as a dog at South Carolina and Dobbs led the Vols to a 45-42 overtime win with 7.5 yards per pass play and 166 rushing yards on 24 runs against a sub-par South Carolina defense. Dobbs was 3rd on the depth chart coming into this season perhaps partially based on what was considered poor play in 4 starts at the end of last season but he actually wasn’t bad at all last year, as he averaged 5.6 yards per play (passing and running combined) while facing a slate of good defensive teams that would allow just 5.3 yards per play to an average team. Dobbs’ passing numbers were 0.6 yards per pass play below average but he ran for 259 yards on 31 runs to make up for it. Dobbs still hasn’t established himself as a great passer, although he’s been 1.0 yppp better than average in two games this season (6.6 yppp against teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average QB), but his career rating on 201 pass plays is average (5.5 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp) and that’s an upgrade from the team rating of -0.4 yppp and over former starter Justin Worley (-0.5 yppp). Dobbs’ running is what really adds to the offense, as he’s run for 250 yards at 6.0 yards per rushing play in two games this season and has averaged 7.0 yprp in his career. The Tennessee running backs also become more effective running the read option with Dobbs since opposing defenses can no longer only focus on the backs with Dobbs to worry about. Kentucky can’t stop a good team, as the Wildcats have allowed an average of 301 rushing yards at 6.6 yards per rushing play to the 5 better than average running teams they’ve faced this season (Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Miss State, and Georgia). Overall Kentucky’s run defense has been 0.4 yprp worse than average but they’ve been 0.7 yprp worse than average against good running teams and Tennessee’s read option attack with Dobbs should move the ball on the ground with consistency in this game (6.2 yprp projected) while I project Dobbs to average a decent 6.0 yards per pass play using his career rating, which is lower than his pass rating in two games this season, but likely more accurate.
While the Tennessee offense is better with Dobbs at quarterback the Vols’ defense is underrated. Tennessee’s defensive numbers are a bit better than average at 25.0 points and 376 yards per game allowed at 5.5 yppl but those numbers become very good when you consider that the opposing offenses that they’ve faced would combine to average 35.3 points and 448 yards per game at 6.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Tennessee’s defensive numbers have also been skewed by allowing big passing numbers to elite offensive teams Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina, who combined for 9.5 yards per pass play against the Vols. However, Tennessee has yielded 5.1 yppp or less in their other 6 games, including games against Ole’ Miss and Georgia and they’ll surely be able to shut down a sub-par Kentucky pass attack that’s averaged only 5.3 yppp this season (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average team). The Wildcats do have a slightly better than average rushing attack (5.0 yprp against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp) but Tennessee’s run defense is better (5.0 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yprp against an average team) and the ‘Cats are projected to run for just 4.7 yprp and throw for only 4.4 yppp in this game. That won’t be enough to keep up with a Tennessee attack that should have an easy time moving the chains with their effective ground attack and solid passing. Overall, the math projects 481 yards at 6.1 yppl for Tennessee and just 318 yards at 4.6 yppl for Kentucky, which is likely to produce a double-digit win. The fact that my math model favored Tennessee by 11 ½ points before adjusting for Dobbs at quarterback is comforting and I’ll take Tennessee in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 ½ or less, for 2-Stars at -10 and for 1-Star up to -11 points.
**UNDER (57) – Missouri (+4) 24 TEXAS A&M 23
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 387 Over/Under 59.0
The only game Missouri has gone Over the total in since week 2 was that random over against Florida in which the Gators had 4 return touchdowns and I don’t see the Tigers’ under trend ending today. The Tigers’ defense has allowed 4.4 yards per play or less in all 5 of their SEC games, including against very good offensive teams South Carolina and Georgia. Texas A&M has been a good offensive team overall this season because of some great performances early in the season and the Aggies were surprisingly good on offense last week with backup Kyle Allen at quarterback, but the Aggies have been held to an average of just 22.6 points and 5.1 yards per play in their last 5 games and Allen, while good last week, has averaged only 6.2 yards on 100 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and I don’t expect him to have success against a very good Missouri pass defense that’s yielded just 4.8 yppp this season to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defensive team. The Tigers also stuff the run, allowing just 4.4 yards per rushing play despite facing teams that would average 5.7 yprp against an average team. Not only has A&M’s offense not been as good lately but the Aggies have also run their attack at a slower pace with Allen at quarterback the last two weeks, choosing to run less no huddle while running the ball more often. Texas A&M has averaged 2.73 plays per minute for the season but they’ve only run 2.41 plays per minute in the two games Allen has started at quarterback. I assumed a play per minute in between those two numbers and my math model projects only 391 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Aggies in this game.
The Missouri offense has completely disappeared since starting the season with promise. The Tigers were average offensively in their first 4 games against week defensive teams, averaging 6.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team, but the Tigers have averaged just 4.2 yppl in 5 games against SEC teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Tigers haven’t even played good SEC defenses, aside from Florida, who they averaged only 2.5 yppl against (but scored 28 points on returns) and they scored an average only 21.7 points against the mediocre and worse than average SEC defensive units of South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. Texas A&M’s defense looks bad statistically, as the Aggies have allowed 447 yards at 6.1 yards per play but they’ve also faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. The A&M defense has actually done a good job against the 3 worse than average offensive teams that they’ve faced, allowing an average of just 10.7 points to Rice, SMU, and UL Monroe. Missouri’s attack isn’t as bad as that of SMU and UL Monroe, but Rice actually has a better offense than Missouri and managed just 10 points against the Aggies. My math model uses all of Missouri’s games rather than just their bad offensive games in SEC play but still projects only 326 yards at 4.9 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
Overall the math model favors Texas A&M by just 1 ½ points with a total of 46.2 points and the odds makers continue to put too high of a total of Missouri games, which is why they’ve gone under 6 of 7 times since week 3 (and should have gone under in all 7). Texas A&M is not as good offensively with Allen at quarterback and this game would be projected to go well under the total even if he was as good as former starter Kenny Hill. A&M has only faced two defensive teams in Missouri’s class (Ole’ Miss and Alabama) and they were held to an average of 10 points in those games, so I don’t see Allen or Hill if he plays, having a lot of success. Missouri hasn’t had a good offensive game since September, so it’s doubtful either team will top the national average of 27.7 points. I’ll go UNDER 55 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and I’ll call for the mini upset since A&M applies to a negative 46-109-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s huge upset win at Auburn.
***MIAMI-FLORIDA (+3 at -120) 37 Florida State 27
Sat Nov-15-2014 at 05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 372 Over/Under 62.0
I’ve been anticipating this game for some time and while I’ve made a good profit the last month backing Miami in blowout wins over Cincinnati, Virginia Tech and North Carolina but I actually wish they hadn’t been so impressive since we would have gotten more points than we are. The casual fan might wonder how the #3 team in the nation would be only a 2 ½ or 3 point favorite against an unranked team but public perception is the only reason that Florida State is favored at all as the odds makers surely know that Miami is the better team.
Miami opened the season with a 13-31 loss at Louisville with a freshman quarterback that wasn’t quite prepared at the time given that he was slotted as the 3rd or 4th string quarterback. An injury to the Hurricanes’ starting quarterback and a suspension of backup Olsen put frosh Brad Kaaya at the controls in that opener against a dominating defense with a limited and conservative playbook that hindered Kaaya’s chances to succeed. After a 41-7 win over lowly Florida A&M the coaching staff finally took off the training wheels and expanded the playbook by allowing Kaaya to throw downfield more, which also allowed the rushing attack to blossom since opposing defenses could no longer simply concentrate on stopping the running of stud Duke Johnson and the other gifted Miami running backs. For the season Miami has averaged 7.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average attack and that attack has been 2.0 yards per play better than average since week 3 (7.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl) with Kaaya averaging 8.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and Duke Johnson and company averaging 234 yards at 6.9 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team). I have plenty of respect for Florida State’s offense but the Seminoles’ defense is barely better than average, having allowed 5.3 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Miami should have little trouble moving the ball I this game and my math model projects 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for the Canes in this game.
While Miami moving the ball well is highly likely the real battle will be between Jameis Winston and the Miami defense, which is vastly underrated. Miami has allowed just 4.8 yards per play this season to a collection of FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. Florida State’s offense has been 1.5 yppl better than average with Winston at quarterback (he missed the Clemson game) and I was impressive by how the Seminoles’ offense stepped up their level of play in the 2nd half of their come from behind win at Louisville against a very good Cardinals’ defense. Florida State does have a 0.3 yppl advantage over Miami’s defense and my math model projects 408 total yards at 5.8 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, but it occurred to me that perhaps Winston is actually relatively better against better defensive teams. I ran a regression of Winston’s yards per pass play number in each game as a function of the strength of the opposing pass defense. The slope of that equation is just 0.18, which means that for every yard per pass play better the opposing defense is Winston has been only 0.18 yppp worse. So, there has been very little correlation this season between the strength of opposing defense and Winston’s performance, although that equation was skewed a lot by the good performance against the only really good pass defense he faced. With that being the case I decided to include last year and the slope of the equation including last year’s games is 0.64, which still means that he’s relatively better against good defensive teams. There is enough evidence with 671 pass plays over 2 years that Winston is likely to perform better than my math would project against a good pass defense (and worse than projected against a bad pass defense) and I applied that to my math projection on this game. The result is that Winston would play 0.63 yppp better than projected, which equates to 2.7 points. However, even with the assumption that Winston will continue his pattern of playing relatively better against good defensive teams I still only project 434 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Seminoles in this game, which is well below the projection of 464 yards at 7.4 yppl for Miami’s potent offense against Florida State’s mediocre defense.
Miami is not only clearly the better team but the Hurricanes apply to a very good 72-22-3 ATS home dog revenge off a bye angle while unbeaten teams (7-0 or better) with less than dominating defensive units are at risk of an upset on the road. In fact, 7-0 or better teams are just 11-36-1 ATS on the road with no revenge if they allow 13 points or more per game on defense and are facing a team on a winning streak (2 or more games). Last year, it was Baylor -9 ½ losing 17-49 at Oklahoma State. In 2011 it was Oklahoma State -27 losing 31-37 at Iowa State. Not only do those unbeaten teams not cover but they have a losing record straight up. Florida State has a great offense that may well indeed rise to the occasion against a good Miami defense but the Seminoles’ defense is not likely to have success defending a well-balanced and potent Hurricanes attack and a win by Miami would not be an upset at all. In fact, I’d be surprised if Florida State has a chance to win late in the 4th quarter (assuming they don’t get lucky with turnovers). I should be making this a 4-Star Best Bet based on the combination of line value and the supporting situations but I’ll play it a bit conservatively and I’ll take Miami-Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and for 2-Stars up to -2 ½ points.
Strong Opinion – AIR FORCE (-2 ½) 28 Nevada 20
Both of these teams have been playing well lately, with Nevada winning and covering the spread in each of their last 3 games and Air Force winning their last 3 and covering in their previous 2 games. I expect Air Force to continue their steak, as the Falcons apply to a 165-73-2 ATS home momentum situation while Nevada applies to a negative 29-72 ATS road letdown situation that is based on the recent success of the Wolf Pack. My math model favors Air Force by 3 ½ points, so the line is more than fair, and the technical analysis is enough for me to consider Air Force a Strong Opinion at -3 points or less.
Strong Opinion – UNDER (46 ½): NC STATE (-17) 27 Wake Forest 11
Wake Forest managed to score 20 points on just 133 total yards against Clemson last week to go over the total for just the second time all season but assuming there will not be a repeat of randomness I expect the Demon Deacons’ strong under trend to continue (6-1 UNDER prior to last week). NC State has also gone under the total a lot recently (4 of 5), as their attack has stalled (just 15.8 points per game in their last 5 games after averaging 40 points through 4 games). NC State is now just average offensively for the season (5.6 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Wake Forest has a slightly better than average defense that’s allowed just 5.3 yppl and 25.7 points per game against teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. I would expect NC State to score around the national average of 27 points in regulation. The Wake Forest offense is the worst of any FBS team, as the Demon Deacons have averaged only 3.3 yards per play against a schedule of average defensive teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. NC State looks like a bad defensive team based on their 424 yards at 6.0 yards per play allowed but the Wolfpack are actually slightly better than average defensively since they’ve faced a schedule of mostly good offensive teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl. Wake Forest is projected to gain just 199 total yard at 3.0 yppl in this game and they aren’t likely to have too many scoring chances. I’ll consider the Under a Strong Opinion at 45 points or higher.
[h=3]Scott Delaney[/h] [h=4]Friday Winner[/h] My 100 Dime Winner for tonight is on the FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS in their road clash with the Pepperdine Waves, in Malibu, Calif. tonight. And as I release this game at 10:30 a.m. eastern, the line I see is Fresno +2.
Anyone have good recommendations on which cappers are good at NCAAB? Thanks.
Anyone have good recommendations on which cappers are good at NCAAB? Thanks.
