SPORTS ADVISORS
(13) Boise State (6-0, 3-2 ATS) at San Jose State (5-2, 5-1 ATS)
The Broncos hope to keep their BCS bowl hopes alive when they travel to Spartan Stadium to take on San Jose State in a battle of the only two Western Athletic Conference teams without a league loss.
Boise State, long known for its offensive firepower, has the second-ranked defense in Division I-A, allowing just 10.5 points per game, and the Broncos have given up more than seven points just once this season, in a 37-32 road win over then-No. 17 Oregon on Sept. 20. A week ago, Boise State’s defense stepped up yet again, allowing only 288 total yards (56 rushing) in a 27-7 home victory over Hawaii, but it came up just short as a 23-point favorite. The Broncos’ offense ranks third in the WAC, averaging 32.5 ppg, and QB Kellen Moore has completed 72.2 percent of his throws for 1,591 yards, 13 TDs and just three INTs.
San Jose State also fields a stout defense, and it showed in Saturday’s 31-14 road win over New Mexico State as a one-point road chalk, as the Spartans registered six sacks and forced four turnovers. San Jose State, which is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run, ranks second to Boise State in the WAC in scoring defense (16.6 ppg allowed). It also gives up just 272.6 total yards and 86.7 rushing yards per game, figures that are superior to the Broncos (310.7 total ypg, 123 rushing ypg allowed).
The Spartans are 3-0 at home this year (2-0 ATS), outscoring visitors by an average of 15 ppg (26-9) and outgaining them by nearly 200 total yards per outing (394-197). Meanwhile, Boise State is 2-0 SU and ATS on the highway, putting up 30.5 points and 387 total yards per contest and yielding 19.5 points and 371 total yards per game.
San Jose State is 0-8 all-time against Boise State, including 0-3 (2-1 ATS) under current coach Dick Tomey. The Broncos blew out the Spartans 42-7 last season on the Smurf Turf in Boise, cashing as 25½-point favorites. Prior to that, however, San Jose State had cashed in three straight meetings, including in 2006 at Spartan Stadium when the Spartans gave Boise State its biggest scare of the season, losing just 23-20 as a 13-point home underdog.
The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes, though the Broncos have finished with the yardage edge in all seven contests, including outgaining the Spartans by more than 200 yards five times.
The Broncos are on ATS streaks of 4-1 on the road, 5-2 in WAC games, 7-3 after a straight-up win, 8-3 in Friday kickoffs and 30-12-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, San Jose State is on pointspread runs of 21-8 overall, 20-7 at home, 14-3 in WAC contests, 10-1 after a straight-up win and 5-1 in October.
For Boise State, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall (3-0 last three), 4-1 on the road, 6-1 in league play, 5-1 on Fridays and 20-7-1 against teams with a winning record. It’s been all “unders” for the Spartans as well, including 21-5-1 overall (4-0 last four), 7-3-1 at home, 22-4-1 in conference action, 7-1-1 in October and 17-5 following a straight-up win. Finally, in this budding rivalry, the under has been the play in each of the last three meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER