Jimmy Boyd's Pick Pack
NBA Daily Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Memphis at Houston
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Memphis (+5.5 -110)
Line Source: Caesars/Harrah's
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
3* No Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies +
The Memphis Grizzlies had a season's best win streak snapped in a three point loss against New Orleans in their last outing. I like the Grizzlies chance to get things back on track in this home-and-home series with the Houston Rockets. Houston is facing a well rested Memphis team that is playing just their second game in the past seven days. This will be the Rocket's fourth game during that seven-day stretch. Houston is playing through a lot of injuries right now, and I expect them to struggle with this tough Memphis defense. The Grizzlies are surrendering a mere 94.6 points per game on the road this season. Over their last five games the Grizzlies have held opponents to just 90 points per game. The Rockets on the other hand have a soft defense, and I think that is what will end up costing them in this matchup. They are allowing 103.8 points per game over their last five games. Memphis is 43-28 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, and they are 31-18 ATS against good shooting teams making over 46 percent of their shots. A big reason for their success against good teams goes back to their outstanding defensive play. The Grizzlies are not getting enough credit from the oddsmakers in this game. This matchup presents a perfect opportunity for Memphis to pull off an upset, so I like the Grizzlies chances of at least keeping this game within five or less points.
Matchup: Washington at Phoenix
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Washington (+3 -110)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +
The oddsmakers may have favored the wrong team in this matchup. Washington has won four of its last six games, with their two losses coming by small single-digit margins. The offense is rolling right now, averaging 105.2 points per game over their last five games. They should score at-will against a Suns defense that has surrendered 105 points per game over their last five games. The Suns are coming off a big win over the Pacers, and I have them playing in a letdown situation in today's matchup with the Wizards. Phoenix has shot over 50 percent in their last two games, and that is a feat that is simply unsustainable. They have shot over 50 percent just three times in their last 19 games while shooting under 45 percent in nine of those games. The Suns are 45-74 ATS after two straight wins by 10 or more points. You should play on road teams like Washington when they average 98 to 102 points per game, and they are coming off a loss by six points or less and are facing a poor defense that is surrendering 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 45-19 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Member Plays
Matchup: Dallas at Brooklyn
Time: 7:35 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Brooklyn (-2 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
Free Pick on Brooklyn Nets -
The Nets have really turned their season around since the start of the New Year. Brooklyn has won eight of its last nine games both straight up and against the spread. A big reason for Brooklyn's recent success has been its outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games the Nets have held opponents to a mere 94.2 points per game. They Mavericks on the other hand have allowed 110.6 points per game over their last five games. The Net's defense has really stepped up recently, and so has the offense. They are averaging 103 points per game over their last five games. They have covered the spread in six of their last seven games when being listed as a favorite by the oddsmakers. Brooklyn is facing a Mavericks team that has lost three of their last five games. The Nets are a streaky team, and have a 24-12 ATS record after two or more consecutive wins. Dallas is playing its third consecutive road game and their fourth game in the past seven days. With home court advantage the Nets should be able to cover such a small number in this game.
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Washington at Phoenix
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Over (207 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Suns OVER
This total is set far too low given how well these teams have been playing on offense recently. Over their last five games the Wizards are averaging 105.2 points per game. The Suns have also been on a scoring binge averaging 113 points per game over their last five games. These teams have an 11-3 record in favor of the over in their last 14 games combined. Both offenses are playing great right now, but both of these defenses have been horrible. Washington has surrendered 101.2 points per game over their last five games, and I think that number will only get worse against a high scoring team like the Suns. Phoenix has had a notoriously bad defense all season, but somehow they have managed to play worse than average recently allowing 105 points per game over their last five games. The over is 13-2 in the Suns last 15 home games against opponents who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The over is also 13-5 when the Suns are playing against a team with a losing record this season. You should play the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a loss by three points or less and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. The over has a 54-23 (70%) record in this situation.
NBA Daily Picks
Premium Plays
Matchup: Memphis at Houston
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Memphis (+5.5 -110)
Line Source: Caesars/Harrah's
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
3* No Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies +
The Memphis Grizzlies had a season's best win streak snapped in a three point loss against New Orleans in their last outing. I like the Grizzlies chance to get things back on track in this home-and-home series with the Houston Rockets. Houston is facing a well rested Memphis team that is playing just their second game in the past seven days. This will be the Rocket's fourth game during that seven-day stretch. Houston is playing through a lot of injuries right now, and I expect them to struggle with this tough Memphis defense. The Grizzlies are surrendering a mere 94.6 points per game on the road this season. Over their last five games the Grizzlies have held opponents to just 90 points per game. The Rockets on the other hand have a soft defense, and I think that is what will end up costing them in this matchup. They are allowing 103.8 points per game over their last five games. Memphis is 43-28 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, and they are 31-18 ATS against good shooting teams making over 46 percent of their shots. A big reason for their success against good teams goes back to their outstanding defensive play. The Grizzlies are not getting enough credit from the oddsmakers in this game. This matchup presents a perfect opportunity for Memphis to pull off an upset, so I like the Grizzlies chances of at least keeping this game within five or less points.
Matchup: Washington at Phoenix
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Washington (+3 -110)
Line Source: The Greek
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +
The oddsmakers may have favored the wrong team in this matchup. Washington has won four of its last six games, with their two losses coming by small single-digit margins. The offense is rolling right now, averaging 105.2 points per game over their last five games. They should score at-will against a Suns defense that has surrendered 105 points per game over their last five games. The Suns are coming off a big win over the Pacers, and I have them playing in a letdown situation in today's matchup with the Wizards. Phoenix has shot over 50 percent in their last two games, and that is a feat that is simply unsustainable. They have shot over 50 percent just three times in their last 19 games while shooting under 45 percent in nine of those games. The Suns are 45-74 ATS after two straight wins by 10 or more points. You should play on road teams like Washington when they average 98 to 102 points per game, and they are coming off a loss by six points or less and are facing a poor defense that is surrendering 98 to 102 points per game. This system is 45-19 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Member Plays
Matchup: Dallas at Brooklyn
Time: 7:35 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Brooklyn (-2 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
Free Pick on Brooklyn Nets -
The Nets have really turned their season around since the start of the New Year. Brooklyn has won eight of its last nine games both straight up and against the spread. A big reason for Brooklyn's recent success has been its outstanding play on the defensive end of the court. Over their last five games the Nets have held opponents to a mere 94.2 points per game. They Mavericks on the other hand have allowed 110.6 points per game over their last five games. The Net's defense has really stepped up recently, and so has the offense. They are averaging 103 points per game over their last five games. They have covered the spread in six of their last seven games when being listed as a favorite by the oddsmakers. Brooklyn is facing a Mavericks team that has lost three of their last five games. The Nets are a streaky team, and have a 24-12 ATS record after two or more consecutive wins. Dallas is playing its third consecutive road game and their fourth game in the past seven days. With home court advantage the Nets should be able to cover such a small number in this game.
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Washington at Phoenix
Time: 9:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Play: Over (207 -110)
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: January 24, 2014 @ 2:05:04 AM EST
5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Suns OVER
This total is set far too low given how well these teams have been playing on offense recently. Over their last five games the Wizards are averaging 105.2 points per game. The Suns have also been on a scoring binge averaging 113 points per game over their last five games. These teams have an 11-3 record in favor of the over in their last 14 games combined. Both offenses are playing great right now, but both of these defenses have been horrible. Washington has surrendered 101.2 points per game over their last five games, and I think that number will only get worse against a high scoring team like the Suns. Phoenix has had a notoriously bad defense all season, but somehow they have managed to play worse than average recently allowing 105 points per game over their last five games. The over is 13-2 in the Suns last 15 home games against opponents who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game. The over is also 13-5 when the Suns are playing against a team with a losing record this season. You should play the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a loss by three points or less and their opponent has scored 100 points or more in four straight games. The over has a 54-23 (70%) record in this situation.
Inside the stats: Lakers are live dogs, especially vs. East
by Marc Lawrence
Let’s take a look at what’s happening on the hardwood as we enter this weekend. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) through January 22, unless noted otherwise.
Fire…
Here is a list teams taking the court this weekend riding hot streaks in games versus fellow Division-1 opponents (minimum seven results):
Air Force 6-1
Arizona 7-1
Kansas State 9-1
Old Dominion 6-1
SMU 7-1
St. Bonaventure 6-1
Syracuse 6-1
Tennessee 6-1
Utah 7-1
Virginia 6-1
Wichita State 6-1
Wisconsin Green Bay 7-1
Xavier 9-0
And ice
Here is a list teams taking the court this weekend riding cold ATS streaks in games versus fellow Division-1 opponents (minimum seven results):
Central Florida 1-6
Drexel 1-7
East Carolina 1-6
Fullerton State 1-7
Marquette 1-7
Marshall 1-8
Massachusetts 1-6-1
North Carolina 1-8
Oregon 0-7
Penn State 1-7
Rice 1-6
South Alabama 1-6
St. Johns 1-7
Texas State 1-7
Virginia Tech 1-6
Hot dogs
According to our database, these have been the best underdogs in most recent games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:
Bowling Green 6-0
Cleveland State 5-1-1
Miami Ohio 6-0
Old Dominion 5-1
Wyoming 4-1-1
The worst underdogs in most recent games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:
Cal Poly Slo 1-4-1
Central Florida 0-5
Colorado State 1-5
LaSalle 0-5
Loyola Marymount 0-5
Penn State 1-5
South Alabama 1-8
Texas State 1-7
USC 1-5
Chalk talk
According to our database, these have been the best favorites in most recent games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:
Arizona 6-1
Arizona State 5-1
Harvard 7-1-1
Kansas State 8-1
Louisiana Tech 6-1
Pacific 6-1
SMU 5-0
Syracuse 6-1
Texas Tech 5-0
UCLA 7-1
UNLV 9-1
Virginia 5-0
Wichita State 6-1
Wisconsin Green Bay 7-1
Xavier 6-0
The worst favorites this season have been:
Bradley 0-4-1
Loyola Chicago 0-6
Notre Dame 1-7-1
Defense dominates
Once again, here is a list of the Top 5 college hoops teams on the defensive front, in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Look to “play on” these teams in either revenge or underdog roles:
Defensive Field Goal Percentage –
1. SMU 35.7
2. Arizona 37.0
3. San Diego State 37.1
4. Clemson 37.2
5. Florida State 37.6
Rebounding Margin –
1. Quinnipiac +14.2
2. Kentucky +12.3
3. Arizona +11.9
4. Indiana +11.3
5. Iowa +10.7
Here is a list of the Top 5 NBA defensive teams:
Scoring Defense –
1. Pacers 89.2
2. Bulls 92.5
3. Raptors 96.2
4. Grizzlies 96.6
5. Bobcats 96.7
Rebounding Margin –
1. Thunder +5.1
2. Pacers +4.5
3. Trailblazers +3.7
4. Bulls +3.3
5. Warriors +3.2
Cash for gold
After losing Kobe Bryant for most of the season this year, the Lakers have tanked in the standings, dropping to 16-27 in games thru January 23.
However, it’s been more like cash for gold for Laker backers in underdog roles this season with L.A. going 21-13-2 ATS when taking points.
That’s a stark comparison to the dismal 21-39 ATS mark the Lakers compiled as underdogs the previous two seasons.
Best role this season for the surfer dudes: 11-1 ATS as dogs in non-conference games.
Stat of the Week
The San Antonio Spurs are 12-1 ATS away in games after facing the Miami Heat. (Tuesday, 1/28).
by Marc Lawrence
Let’s take a look at what’s happening on the hardwood as we enter this weekend. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) through January 22, unless noted otherwise.
Fire…
Here is a list teams taking the court this weekend riding hot streaks in games versus fellow Division-1 opponents (minimum seven results):
Air Force 6-1
Arizona 7-1
Kansas State 9-1
Old Dominion 6-1
SMU 7-1
St. Bonaventure 6-1
Syracuse 6-1
Tennessee 6-1
Utah 7-1
Virginia 6-1
Wichita State 6-1
Wisconsin Green Bay 7-1
Xavier 9-0
And ice
Here is a list teams taking the court this weekend riding cold ATS streaks in games versus fellow Division-1 opponents (minimum seven results):
Central Florida 1-6
Drexel 1-7
East Carolina 1-6
Fullerton State 1-7
Marquette 1-7
Marshall 1-8
Massachusetts 1-6-1
North Carolina 1-8
Oregon 0-7
Penn State 1-7
Rice 1-6
South Alabama 1-6
St. Johns 1-7
Texas State 1-7
Virginia Tech 1-6
Hot dogs
According to our database, these have been the best underdogs in most recent games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:
Bowling Green 6-0
Cleveland State 5-1-1
Miami Ohio 6-0
Old Dominion 5-1
Wyoming 4-1-1
The worst underdogs in most recent games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:
Cal Poly Slo 1-4-1
Central Florida 0-5
Colorado State 1-5
LaSalle 0-5
Loyola Marymount 0-5
Penn State 1-5
South Alabama 1-8
Texas State 1-7
USC 1-5
Chalk talk
According to our database, these have been the best favorites in most recent games played versus fellow Division-1 foes:
Arizona 6-1
Arizona State 5-1
Harvard 7-1-1
Kansas State 8-1
Louisiana Tech 6-1
Pacific 6-1
SMU 5-0
Syracuse 6-1
Texas Tech 5-0
UCLA 7-1
UNLV 9-1
Virginia 5-0
Wichita State 6-1
Wisconsin Green Bay 7-1
Xavier 6-0
The worst favorites this season have been:
Bradley 0-4-1
Loyola Chicago 0-6
Notre Dame 1-7-1
Defense dominates
Once again, here is a list of the Top 5 college hoops teams on the defensive front, in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Look to “play on” these teams in either revenge or underdog roles:
Defensive Field Goal Percentage –
1. SMU 35.7
2. Arizona 37.0
3. San Diego State 37.1
4. Clemson 37.2
5. Florida State 37.6
Rebounding Margin –
1. Quinnipiac +14.2
2. Kentucky +12.3
3. Arizona +11.9
4. Indiana +11.3
5. Iowa +10.7
Here is a list of the Top 5 NBA defensive teams:
Scoring Defense –
1. Pacers 89.2
2. Bulls 92.5
3. Raptors 96.2
4. Grizzlies 96.6
5. Bobcats 96.7
Rebounding Margin –
1. Thunder +5.1
2. Pacers +4.5
3. Trailblazers +3.7
4. Bulls +3.3
5. Warriors +3.2
Cash for gold
After losing Kobe Bryant for most of the season this year, the Lakers have tanked in the standings, dropping to 16-27 in games thru January 23.
However, it’s been more like cash for gold for Laker backers in underdog roles this season with L.A. going 21-13-2 ATS when taking points.
That’s a stark comparison to the dismal 21-39 ATS mark the Lakers compiled as underdogs the previous two seasons.
Best role this season for the surfer dudes: 11-1 ATS as dogs in non-conference games.
Stat of the Week
The San Antonio Spurs are 12-1 ATS away in games after facing the Miami Heat. (Tuesday, 1/28).
