Service Plays Friday 08/28/09

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CFL Week 9 preview and picks

Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts (+7, 54)

Last time these two teams met, the Stampeders stomped all over the Argonauts 44-9. Calgary’s defence scored three touchdowns on turnovers. Since then, Cody Pickett has taken over and will get a second straight start at QB for the boatmen. But one can wonder if his offensive line will do better than they did in the July 17 game where Kerry Joseph was sacked six times. The Stamps have won they’re last four games against the Argos, a streak that started on the last game of the 2007 season.

Some stats to consider: They have the second best record for most points scored with 238. The Argos are dead last with only 134. The Stamps lead the CFL with an average of 34 points scored per game. The Argos, again, are last with an average of 19.1 points a game. Calgary has scored 22 touchdowns so far this year, while the Argos only scored 11.

Both teams are coming off a bye week and show a losing record, but the Stampeders have lost a few close ones against division rivals like Saskatchewan and Edmonton, two teams that have to be considered quite superior to the Argos who should extend their club record losing streak at home to 10.

Pick: Calgary -7


Hamilton Tiger Cats at Edmonton Eskimos (-7.5, 53)

The Tiger Cats could match their highest victory total of the last five years with a win in Edmonton - and they still will have 10 games to play this season. Hamilton has improved, no doubt about it, but they still have many issues to resolve and that starts at the QB position. Quinton Porter is the starter but has he been replaced three times already during the course of a game by veteran Kevin Glenn. In order to win consistently, the Tiger Cats need better performances from Porter.

The Eskimos are one of the rare teams in the CFL this year where there’s no doubt about the identity of the starting QB. Ricky Ray is currently the third-best QB in the league, stats wise, behind Anthony Calvillo and Henry Burris. He can also count on two excellent receivers in Fred Stamps and Maurice Mann, while running back Arkee Whitlock has established himself as a threat on the ground after a rocky start in the CFL.

But the TiCats have allowed the second-fewest points per game and they are the best when it comes to avoiding turnovers with only 14 giveaways. I still think Edmonton will win this one at home but it won’t be a walk in the park for the Eskimos.

Pick: Hamilton +7.5

(Last Week 1-1, season 17-13)
 
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2 MINUTE HANDICAP

(All results pertain to preseason only and are most recent ATS - Against The Spread - unless noted otherwise. * = Check earlier result this season for similar situation.)

WEEK THREE


Friday, August 28

New England 5-1-1 Game Three…13-6-3 vs NFC

WASHINGTON 9-1 SU Game Three… 2-9 UNDER vs AFC


Green Bay 2-6 UNDER Away One… 1-5 before Titans

ARIZONA SERIES: 0-2 SUATS… 6-0 Game Three
 
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Benjamin lee Eckstein

Ben lee lost on Thursday with the Angles -180/A's.

For Friday "Mr Chalk" likes the Cardnials -$180/Nationals.

"Mr Chalk" is 2-2 -$200 for the week and 73-52 -$1060 for the MLB season.
 
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SafestWagers

Saratoga: Fri., August 28th, 2009
Doubles:
Race 2) 5
Race 3) 1/2/3/4/7



Race 2) 1 1/16 Miles Md Sp Wt Selection: 5

# 5 Evening Star*
No other top handicappers have put this filly in their top 3.
We like that. She's got a race under her belt, while others
are making their pari-mutuel debuts.
In that start, she broke poorly, made up lots of ground,
and went her final quarter (1 mile race), in 23/3!
She didn't appear to be blowing that hard after the finish.

Safer Bet:
a) # 5 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 5 with 1/2/3/6/7/9 with 1/2/3/6/7/9



Race 3) 6 Furlongs Alw 52000N1X Selection: 4

# 4 Moontime Missy*
Longest morning line on the board at 12-1.
Definitely worth the risk. She's coming back for first start of
2009 campaign with a trainer who has won long, off of layoffs.
As a 2 year old she..... was green in first start, wasn't quite ready
for good stakes competition in 3rd start.
But... in her 2nd race, she won, beating some good ones in a
very speedy time.
Morning workouts have been strong.
Leparoux had options, and made this his choice.

Safer Bet:
a) # 4 to Win, Place or Show

Exotics:
b) Trifecta: 4 with 1/2/3/5/6/7 with 1/2/3/5/6/7
 
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Insider Sports Report

4 Star Texas Rangers

3 Star Cleveland Indians

N.E. Patriots/Washington Redskins Under 38
 
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Mr. A's

Friday, August 28th, 2009 7:05 PM EST.
Chicago White Sox (63-64) at New York Yankees (79-47)
(L) Mark Buehrle (11-7) vs. (L) CC Sabathia (15-7)
Oddsmakers: New York as a -280 home favorite with the total listed at 9'over'.

New York Yankees -220


Friday, August 28th, 2009 10:05 PM EST.
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-52) at Cincinnati Reds (54-71)
(R) Chad Billingsley (12-7) vs. (R) Homer Bailey (3-4)
Oddsmakers: Los Angeles as a -150 road favorite with the total listed at 10 'over'.

Los Angeles Dodgers -150
 
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Dave Malinsky

Today’s Free Pick

GAME: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Aug 28, 2009 7:10PM

PICK: Toronto Blue Jays + 210

REASON FOR PICK: 3* #973 TORONTO over BOSTON

Has anyone watched Scott Richmond or Josh Beckett lately? That seemingly has not been the case in the pricing of this game, and that means a chance for a nice payday at the generous return that is being offered.

Richmond is a late-bloomer, with his 30th birthday coming up on Sunday, but his stuff has been solid, with a 1.29 WHIP better than the 4.09 ERA shows, and for our purposes his two August starts since getting back into the rotation could not have been better – an 0-1/4.85 elicits nothing but yawns from the marketplace, but despite taking on tough lineups in the Angels and Yankees (the latter in the Bronx), he struck out 18 batters in 13 innings, while only allowing 14 hits. His abilities, along with a fresh bullpen and a lineup that will relish the chance to play spoiler against a hated rival, bring much more to the table than we usually find for an underdog in this range.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, bring much less than what is being called for. They are just 19-20 since the All Star break, and Beckett is in one of the worst cycles of his career, allowing an astonishing count of 10 home runs in his last three starts. Included in that run was an ugly outing at the Rogers Centre two starts back, when he was tagged for seven runs on nine hits, including three homers, in 5.1 frames, and note that it was not all that new – the Blue Jays bring a lot of hitters that actually enjoy seeing his stuff, with Vernon Wells at 10-31 lifetime with five home runs, Lyle Overbay 9-30 with a pair of doubles, Aaron Hill 10-27 with six doubles, Rod Barajas 5-13 with two doubles and two home runs, and Adam Lind 5-8 with a double and a homer.

This is not the setting for a blowout – this situation is ripe for a loose underdog to get the measure of a team that is fighting for their playoff lives, and not stepping up all that well under the pressure so far.
 
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Vegas Informer

MLB BASEBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #958 Take Florida -145 over San Diego (Friday 8/28 7:10 PM)

Florida swept a three-game series against San Diego in late July at Petco Park and has won six of their last seven matchups. The Marlins are 9-2 against NL West teams.

6 Unit Play. #966 Take San Francisco -125 over Colorado (Friday 8/28 10:15 PM)

(Game of the Month) A huge series starts tonight in San Francisco and this series could tell us who might win the NL Wild Card. “The Freak” get the ball tonight for the Giants but Lincecum is only 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA in nine career starts against the Rockies. With Lincecum on the mound at home we like the Giants and with “The Freak” at home the Giants should win this game. The Giants are 17-5 at home against teams with winning records. Colorado is 0-5 in their last 5 games as a road underdog.

These are all the picks for the MLB today.
 
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Allen Eastman

3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 L.A. Dodgers at Cincinnati (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)
 
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Dave Busk

4 Unit Pick #966 Take San Francisco (-120) over Colorado (August 28, 10:15)

2 Unit Pick #966 Take San Francisco (-1.5+1.70) over Colorado (August 28. 10:15)

Rarely do I do this type of wagering but there is some good value in this situation tonight. This two teams just played each other in the beginning of the week and these two pitchers hooked up in a duel with Ubaldo Jimenez coming out on top over Tim Lincecum. Now we get a pitcher with Lincecum on the bump at home where he has allowed just 21 earned runs in 95 innings this year along with 113 to 24 strike out to walk ratio at home in a revenge spot with a quick turnaround in a big game with the Giants trailing the Rockies by three games in the hunt for the wild card. No doubt about Jimenez has been good if not great since the all-Star break as has the Rockies as a team. The Giants Sandoval is questionable but I fully expected him to be in the lineup for this important game and help the Lincecum get the revenge.

2 Unit Pick #964 Take Arizona (-1.5+1.35) over Houston (August 28, 9:40)

We have a huge pitching edge here with Max Scherzer on the hill vs. Yorman Bazardo. Bazardo making his second start here after spending time in the bullpen is only going to give four to five innings before we’re in that Houston bullpen. Arizona starter Scherzer is coming off a rough outing in his last start on the road vs. the Astros, this kid has talent and I think he will rebound here and pitch a good game vs. Houston. To be able to take plus money here in this situation vs. Bazardo is good value
 
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IC

4 Unit Play. Take Under 145 between New York Liberty @ Chicago Sky (Friday @ 8:30pm est). We keep rolling in the wnba. New York is playing very well of late and they have not quit on the season as it apparent due to their 4-2 mark over their last six games. They lost to Chicago 77-88 their last time around and the Liberty have a funny a way of stepping up on defense coming off a loss to a team earlier in the season. Although New York plays the over at home, on the road, this team steps up defensively. Tack that on with the fact that the Liberty have revenge and will look to rely on their defense more, it bears well for the under. The last time these two teams met, the total was 155. Yet, the total for this game is set at 145 which leads me to believe that this will likely be similar to the Chicago vs. LA Sparks game in Chicago earlier this season which totaled at 138. I have this game closing at or around the mid to high 130's as this game likely dips under the total.

Good luck,






4 Unit Play. Take Under 9 between the San Diego Padres @ Florida Marlins (Friday @ 7:10pm est). We are 3-1 on the week in baseball as we look to go 4-1 on the week with today's winner. Correia comes off getting shelled in his last performance giving up five runs on 10 hits in less than seven innings. Correia previously had pitched 7 of 8 quality starts. I look for him to have a bounce-back start today. Volstad looks to bounce-back as well from his loss in Atlanta as the Marlins fell short 3-4 and I expect him to have a quality start today. Given we have two quality pitchers coming off rough starts, I believe this game likely dips under as the Under is 4-0 for Correia coming off five days of rest and the Under is 20-8-3 for the Marlins coming off a loss.

Good luck,

IC
 
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Robert Ferringo

5-Unit Play. Take #952 Chicago Cubs (-1.5, -120) over N.Y. Mets (2 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)
Note: This is my Game of the Month.


1.5-Unit Play. Take #978 L.A. Angels (-150) over Oakland (10 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)


1-Unit Play. Take #962 St. Louis (-1.5, +120) over Washington (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)


1-Unit Play. Take #974 Boston (-1.5, -115) over Toronto (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)


1-Unit Play. Take #966 San Francisco (-125) over Colorado (10 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)


Today’s Totals
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 Washington at St. Louis (8 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 San Diego at Florida (7 p.m., Friday, Aug. 28)

That's it for today.
 

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Someone posted yesterday that they would have everyone's picks off of the Budin site "Don't waste your money".

Is this true because I want to buy a pick but I'm not going to if the above statement is true.
 

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Chris Jordan picks, he is cold...

Since buying a years package...

At playing one dollar per pick rated 100-400...

Lost 400 Star play on Boston

Will Update Jordan in s couple of weeks..

August 19th +141.67 2-1
August 20th +120.00 1-1 3-2 +261.67
August 21st -100 1-1 4-3 +161.67
August 22nd +110 2-1 6-4 +271.67
August 23rd -300 0-1 6-5 -29.23
August 24th -310 0-2 6-7 -339.23
August 25th -228 1-2 7-9 -557.23
August 26th -200 0-1 7-10 -777.23
August 27th -538 0-2 7-12 -1315.23


3 small plays today....Going to sit out and watch a while as he is 1-8 last 9 plays...

Chris Jordan Friday night winners ...
100♦ OVER Padres/Marlins - With Kevin Correia and Chris Volstad toeing the slab, and this one being in Miami, I love this total to soar. Both teams have won two of three behind these pitchers’ last three starts, but Correia has a 4.08 ERA in his last trio of starts, while Volstad’s 7.24 ERA his last three trips to the hill is eye popping.

Florida is in after losing five of eight after winning nine of their previous 11. And since it trails Colorado by 4-1/2 games of the Wild Card race, I expect the Marlins to get this one started early. I won’t side with them though, given Volstad’s numbers.

Delving inside the numbers, the Over is on winning runs of 9-1 when the Friars are on the road and 8-3 when they play on Friday nights. With Florida, the high number is on upticks of 14-3 when it’s the favorite,13-3 when it’s at home and 7-2-1 when it plays on Friday nights. More importantly, the over has come in eight of the last times these two have met in Florida.

I know the first three meetings averaged 5 runs per game, but they were played in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. This one is at Land Shark Stadium, and the Marlins will dictate the high-scoring affair.

100♦ PATRIOTS (buy the hook down to -3 if in fact your book has the line at 3-1/2) - If this the dress rehearsal for the real season, and this one is in Foxboro, it’s a no-brainer for me to take the Patriots tonight, albeit we’re playing it safe and buying the hook. Why is this line so low, you might be asking? Well there are still the uncertainties with Tom Brady, plus, there’s the changing face of one of the NFL’s better defenses, as coach Bill Belichick is changing from his 3-4 defense to a traditional 4-3 front.

Last season the Patriots ranked 14th in the NFL in sacks, so with this new scheme, there’s the opportunity for more chances at getting to opposing signal-callers. No better time like the present to make things happen and for this defense to prove to itself that it can dominate once again. And the greatest thing about the mentality of the Pats’ defensive members is they’re not as worried about the ‘sack’ as much as they are pressuring the quarterback.

So no matter how much Washington quarterback Jason Campbell says he’s ready, there’s never a good time to face a Belichick-coached stop unit. This is a significant adjustment, something that is never easy for opponents to prepare for. Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s about Brady at all tonight, I think it’s the Patriots defense, which could become even more perplexing than ever.

100♦ RANGERS - This is an awfully interesting organization, you have to admit. With Nolan Ryan running the front office and Mike Maddux handling the pitching responsibilities, this team has turned things around and poses a real threat in the Wild Card race. Think about it, the Yankees have the best record in baseball and most certainly have been playing their best baseball the past month or so. Yet the Rangers just won a road series at the new Yankee Stadium.

I didn’t see anything bothering the Rangers in the Bronx either, as they became the first visiting team to win a series there since mid-June. Much of their resurgent ways can be credited to Maddux’s effort with the pitching staff, that’s a given; but let’s be real, Ian Kinsler is killing the ball, Josh Hamilton looks alive after seeing his average fall to .220 this month, and then seeing him bat .429 with 10 RBI over the past 15 games. The good news is, Hamilton is a .389 career hitter against the Twins, and keep in mind this one is in the Homer Domer.

Texas is on winning runs of 7-2 as a favorite, 13-4 on Fridays and 5-1 when Tommy Hunter starts the first game in a series. Meanwhile, the Twins come in mired in losing streaks of 3-9 against the American League West, 3-7 against winning teams and 0-4 as the home pup. Value road play.
 

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Tony Salinas Baseball


Friday, August 28, 2009
24*
Reds {H.Bailey} (+180) over Dodgers {C.Billingsley}
7:10 PM -- Great American Ball Park
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
25*
Pirates {Z.Duke} (+140) over Brewers {M.Parra}
8:05 PM -- Miller Park
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
NL Game of the Month
27*
Giants {T.Lincecum} (-125) over Rockies {U.Jimenez}
10:15 PM -- AT&T Park
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
 

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