Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play.
Take the Over 158.5 between the Minnesota Lynx @ Detroit Shock (Friday @ 7:30pm est).
It's Friday night WNBA action, and there is just one game on tap. You've heard me write and say that whenever there is just one game on tap, the dog usually does well. Vegas has put a small line on Minneosta at Detroit today for several reasons. For starters, Minnesota comes off a loss to the Sparks at home, this is the same team that went to San Antonio coming off a loss and won Outright by 7 points, so Vegas looks for them to bounce-back as well. Having said that, Detroit has been sound lately winning 3 of their last 5 with four of those six games going into overtime. Detroit has been much better on the offensive end, but more importantly, I beleive they will be taken to the limit today. So, in short, it is the active dog/over theory that I advocate. Plus, as this is the only game on tap in Vegas today, I expect the public to have a trap set for them so to speak as well. The Over is 8-1 for the Lynx when playing on 2 days rest, the over is 7-0 in the last two meetings between these two teams and the Over is 5-1 for the Shock following a loss.
4 Unit Play.
Take Under 10.5 between the Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (Friday @ 8pm est).
Padilla has been one of the best bounce-backs in the majors for some time and this year is no different. In fact, Vincente has pitched in 7 straight Unders and 8 of 10 Unders. The total has still yet to adjust to him as he continues to pitch in many unders as his era does not indicate his bounce-back capabilities. Vincente gave up 5 runs against the Twins in his last start and picked up a loss and I expect him to pitch well today as he bounces back and helps his squad continue to roll in the playoff chase. Vargas, an alum of Long Beach State, got ripped by Cleveland in his last start giving up 6 runs in 4 innings against the Indians. The young man was coming off 3 hits adn 5 scoreless innings against Baltimore prior to getting shelled in his last start. I feel that although he is likely to get hit by the Rangers lineup a bit, he will still pitch to the under as well as he bounces back from that terrible start. Keep in mind Seattle has many young hurlers that can take the place of this young man, so he needs a quality start today. The Under is 4-0 when Vargas pitches with 4 days of rest and the Under is 5-0 when Padilla starts with a total in this range. The Under is also 5-1in the last meetings head to head.
4 Unit Play.
Take Under 8 between the Toronto Bluejays @ Oakland A's (Friday @ 10pm est).
Scott Richmond comes off a solid outing, yet he still picked up the loss as he gave up 3 runs in 7 innings in his last start. He has pitched back to back quality starts and comes off 3 of 4 quailty starts. I expect him to pitch well today as he looks to bounce-back and albeit from a quality start, a loss nonetheless. Tack that on with the fact Braden comes off a loss at new Yankee Stadium giving up 7 runs in 5 innings, I expect him to bounce-back well today. Mind you, this is a similar situation when Braden gave up 6 runs in 5 innings against the Angels on 7/16 and came back the following start on 7/21 by giving up 2 runs in 7 innings to Minnesota. This is a similar situation and I expect him as well as Richmond to pitch quality starts today. The Under is 8-2 for the Bluejays following a loss and the Under is 10-2 when Braden starts as a favorite by this margin.
Good luck,
IC