Jeff Benton
Jeff Benton
Friday's MLB Winners ...
10 DIME: RED SOX (over Blue Jays) ... NOTE: Stick with this play regardless of any changes to the starting pitchers.
10 DIME: MARLINS (over Phillies) ... NOTE: List just Nolasco as Florida's starting pitcher. If Nolasco does NOT start, this play is VOID!
10 DIME: PIRATES (over Giants) ... NOTE: List just Maholm as Pittsburgh's starting pitcher. If Maholm does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Red Sox
I love Blue Jays rookie lefty Ricky Romero – in fact, if the season were to end today, the southpaw would definitely get my vote for A.L. Rookie of the Year. But if you’re giving me plus money with the team that has the best record in the American League and the second best in all of baseball, with a talented and extremely motivated young pitcher on the mound, I’m sorry, I’m taking it. And I’m especially taking it because Romero’s team – especially his offense – is struggling mightily.
Before I get to Toronto’s woes, though, a few words about the Red Sox. They’re 20 games over .500 at 54-34; they lead the Yankees in the A.L. East by three games; and only the Dodgers (56-32) have a better record. They entered the All-Star break with three straight wins over the Royals (1-0, 15-9 and 6-0), they’ve won five of their last six overall, and going back to an 8-2 rout of the Blue Jays in Canada on May 31, Terry Francona’s club is 12-4 on the highway, including 4-0 in its last four as an underdog.
Boston has won four of six from Toronto this season and eight of 11 in this rivalry going back to last year. Furthermore, the Sox are on stretches of 21-7 in divisional games, 5-1 against teams with a losing record and 19-8 against left-handed starters.
As for starting pitcher Clay Buchholz, the kid has certainly earned this start. After an impressive spring training, Buchholz found himself the odd man out and was sent to the minors. Rather than sulk, the right-hander – whom, you may remember, threw a no-hitter in his second EVER major-league start – went to Triple-A Pawtucket and dominated, going 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA in 16 starts. He had 89 strikeouts in 99 innings and opponents batted just .188 against him.
Tonight, Buchholz is facing a potent, yet scuffling, Toronto offense that scored 2, 2, 3 and 2 runs in its last four games before the break (losing three of them). Not only that, but the Blue Jays are 3-12 in their last 15 games (1-4 at home), scoring two runs or fewer in eight of those 15 contests and four runs or fewer in 10 of the 15. That includes a 4-3, 12-inning loss at Baltimore on Saturday as the Jays ruined another quality Romero start.
Finally, the Red Sox have hit lefties well on the road all season with a .298 average … including that 8-2 win over Romero on May 31. It was the first time Boston saw the youngster, and it roughed him up for five runs, six hits and five walks in four innings. It remains Romero’s worst and shortest stint of his young big-league career. Gee, you think that might be in the back of the kid’s mind when he toes the slab tonight? Me too! Give me the better team, the hotter team, and the plus money!
Marlins
I don’t know what’s wrong with Philadelphia ace Cole Hamels, but I do know something ain’t right. The reigning NLCS and World Series MVP is just 5-5 with a 4.87 ERA this season; he’s 2-3 with a 6.34 ERA on the road; he’s given up 17 runs (all earned) in his last four outings overall totaling 21 2/3 innings (7.06 ERA), and only one of those four was a quality start; and his team is just 9-8 in his 17 trips to the mound this season, including a miracle 8-7 home win over the lowly Pirates on Saturday (a game in which Hamels gave up five runs on seven hits in six innings).
Out of all those numbers, I want to concentrate on Hamels’ road woes. Along with that 6.34 ERA on the highway, Hamels has a 1.72 WHIP, as he’s given up 57 hits and nine walks in just 38 1/3 innings. Also, when on the road, Hamels is allowing opposing hitters to reach base at a .382 clip. And get this: The Phillies have lost five straight games to the Marlins with Hamels on the mound and they’ve come up empty in all four of his starts in Miami!
As for Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco, he is coming off a stinker, I’ll give you that, as he got torched for seven runs at Arizona on Friday. However, five of those runs came in a rough fourth inning, and Nolasco did settle down to finish six frames in an 8-0 loss. More importantly, though, Nolasco deserves a mulligan because of the way he was pitching heading into Arizona. In his initial six starts after being recalled from a demotion to Triple-A, Nolasco allowed a total of seven earned runs in 41 innings (1.54 ERA), going 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA in four home starts. Also, he did strike out eight and walk none in Friday’s effort against the DBacks, meaning Nolasco now has notched 53 Ks against just seven walks in 47 innings since his recall.
The general point: Friday’s ugly outing at Arizona aside, Nolasco is the hotter pitcher. Oh, and for what it’s worth, he faced the eventual World Series champs four times last year and went 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and a 21-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 27 1/3 innings.
Throw in the fact that despite Philly’s 4-0 win Thursday, the Marlins have still won 10 of their last 12 at home while the Phillies have dropped six of nine on the road, and I’m all over this live ‘dog with Nolasco tonight.
Pirates
I know this seems ludicrous to go against Tim Lincecum right now, considering the reigning Cy Young winner has delivered 15 quality starts in his last 16 trips to the hill, including 10 in a row coming into tonight. But bear with me please, as it’s not as ludicrous as you might think.
First off, while I know it appears as though Lincecum is completely unbeatable, the fact of the matter is he’s not totally flawless. For instance, while he’s 10-2 with a 2.33 ERA overall, the Giants are “just” 12-6 in his 18 starts this season, including 6-3 on the road. And while Lincecum has won four consecutive starts and five of the last six, the Giants have not won five straight games behind the right-hander all season. Nor have they done so since winning his first five starts of last season.
In fact, that’s the ONLY time San Francisco has won five straight Lincecum starts. Also, while it was nearly two years ago and in his rookie season, I have to mention that the only other time in his career that Lincecum faced the Pirates, he got lit up for six runs in six innings in a 13-3 home loss.
On the other hand, Pirates starter Paul Maholm has a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants, with Pittsburgh winning four of those contests. And while Maholm has been very up-and-down lately after a strong start to the season, he was sharp in his last start before the All-Star break (a 6-3 win at Houston in which the lefty gave up just two runs in six innings). Also, Maholm is 3-1 with a rock-solid 2.96 ERA at home this year – and he’s facing a Giants squad that’s A) just 18-24 on the road this year, and B) batting a woeful .225 against lefties on the highway.
One last thing: San Francisco has lost 16 of its last 21 games against the Pirates, including getting swept in three games in Pittsburgh last year by the aggregate score of 20-11. Yes, I know Lincecum is a stud, but he’s not God, and he’s not going to win every time out. And don’t forget that he also started the All-Star Game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that threw off his rhythm. Simply put, this reasonably short number on Lincecum tonight smells fishy to me, so we’ll ride the Bucs, who are a very respectable 22-17 at home this year and 5-2 in Maholm’s last seven starts as a pup.
PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME GOOD LUCK:toast:
